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Spartacus, 1960.
I do suppose that since we have two flipped Mafia, it's worthwhile to see if there's a theme. (Do we have a theme split? I don't recall.)
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...Hang on, couldn't "The 39 Steps" just be flavor for a Ninja specifically? If it's all about the protagonist going on the run and evading capture, that fits the role very well. Better than a Tracker, because tracking is what the antagonists are doing in the plot, yes?
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@Bullish
Who's the other scum?
Toss-up on you-Earth. Earth had the good early part where we danced around the roles for a little bit- felt towny there, which is why he was one of my early top town. But he has fallen off, from my perspective. He could be trying to deepwolf, he certainly has the style for it.
You have do some issues, though. I'm still not 100% on the wagon of "Governor role must be Town" specifically because of the night-skipping aspect of it that makes it viable to be Mafia-aligned. The other main issue I have with your slot specifically is that you were one of the biggest voices against having Austin claim yesterday, which has created... whatever the current mess is. I suppose it depends on if you're the audacious type who would stack with your buddy on a Town wagon while loudly saying to let that buddy wait on claiming.
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@AustinL0926
I tracked Moozer to nowhere N1, hence why I was townreading him.
You very easily could have hard claimed this. After all, he was claiming a role that could create protectives- give that to Banana and you're safe for at least the next Night.
I targeted Cerulean for pretty obvious reasons. He spent an entire day phase gladiating and then helping to vote out a town player. You mentioned it yourself, Cerulean kept pushing Wylted without considering a world where he could be town, just like in Mayday Mafia.
This is a flat-out lie and tells me you either didn't bother to read or are just ignoring what I was saying throughout the day:
Phew. Okay. I think that's all. I'm not 100% opposed to a No Lynch today, but I want some answers before I realistically consider it.
WyIted could be Town. I admit this fully, and I know I might have screwed up here. I posted my reasoning on him to explain the perspective on why I chose to target him specifically.The reason I used my ability last night specifically was because if today was a mislynch, the next day would be LyLo, and I didn't want to use my ability there, since it would essentially require betting the game on one person being Mafia. Doing it today was with the intention of showing my role without the entire game hinging on me being right or wrong. And I wanted to avoid a situation where I claimed my role and essentially had to say "Oops! I never used it! Oh well!" because that could also be game-losing if it gets me mislynched.
Don't pretend like you really think it would be optimal for me to not use my role and then claim it in LyLo. Seems like a great way to get myself mislynched.
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Why are all the wolves on this forum absolute rubbish at fake claims? You're really going for a 3-Investigative narrative?
VTL Austin
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Sigh. Bullish said to wait for Austin to claim so I suppose he's not going to.
I think we can end this.
VTL WyIted
Please flip red, I need a win for once in my life that's not the most obvious wolf on the planet.
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If I had any specific teams I could confidently cross off the list, I'd be a little more amenable to a no-lynch. But the last time I did that, a skilled scum team burned me hard. So I'm not interested in betting the game on that strategy.
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@WyIted
That's a good question. Where I'm at right now is still that the POE is {You, Austin, Earth, Bullish}. Even if we were to No Lynch today, I wouldn't be confident in you being Town. So we would go into MyLo with that same POE of 4 and no spare mislynches, meaning that if the cross-vote (if one happens) is between the 2 Towns in there, we lose.
If you're lynched today, even if you flip Town, that POE is narrowed down to {Austin, Earth, Bullish}. So no matter what cross-vote happens tomorrow, at least one is going to be Mafia.
..and if you flip Mafia, all the better for us.
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Actually, just to go back to this- while I am at a spot of thinking a WyIted Earth team is most likely, you did see that I had a whole post about my issues with Earth, Bullish, and Austin, right? None of them are out of the woods, from my point of view. But I made today about me and WyIted, so I posted about... WyIted.just doesn't seem to be considering other options
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@iamanabanana
I was instinctively annoyed by your post initially, but I do appreciate you doing your due diligence and actually considering me as a suspect. I do think it's a little odd how nobody else really did considered me as a chop today, besides WyIted briefly. Though I suppose scum is on WyIted either way- either his buddy is hellbussing for cred or wolves are trying to drive the lynch on an investigative through.
His actions don't really make a lot of sense, why would he claim to be an investigative role and not have results on the person he watched get killed?
We call this "Wine in Front of Me" or WIFOM for short. I can go a bit into the abstract concept of it, if you want, but essentially, we can't really be sure what Mafia WyIted would do. And, in particular, Mafia-aligned players can and do things that make townies say "If he was Mafia, why would he do that? It doesn't make sense."
Take last game, for instance, when Pie was "silenced." It made things objectively harder, because he wasn't able to talk and control conversation at all, but it also gave him some breathing room because several people were thinking "why would he pretend to do that?"
So I don't find this particular reasoning to be convincing.
I don't like the way he comes in and again just doesn't seem to be considering other options, just seems to know that wylted is mafia. He did the same thing with me in the last game, and just like last game made a big case and drew out all the reasons wylted would be mafia and doesn't seem to considering at all that he could be town.
WyIted could be Town. I admit this fully, and I know I might have screwed up here. I posted my reasoning on him to explain the perspective on why I chose to target him specifically. If you take issue with it, let me know, because I think you're Town and I do want your opinion, even if the feeling isn't mutual.
The reason I used my ability last night specifically was because if today was a mislynch, the next day would be LyLo, and I didn't want to use my ability there, since it would essentially require betting the game on one person being Mafia. Doing it today was with the intention of showing my role without the entire game hinging on me being right or wrong. And I wanted to avoid a situation where I claimed my role and essentially had to say "Oops! I never used it! Oh well!" because that could also be game-losing if it gets me mislynched.
I suppose we won't really know if this was the optimal play until post-game.
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@AustinL0926
To be frank- and I know this might sound selfish- you dying tonight would almost certainly make this game easier for me to solve, because you are very much in my POE. You should prefer being a nightkill instead of a mislynch if you're Town, and I can only think "He wouldn't TMI that blatantly" for so long. So yes, I do want your claim today. If we don't get it today, I'm hard pushing you tomorrow unless you have a damn good reason for it.
Addressing Banana in my next post.
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@WyIted
If any Americans ever want to know where their tax dollars are going, there were four people in my office today who spent what seemed to be the whole day setting up Halloween decorations.
Anyway, I did check with Casey when you originally asked, and the role does visit. I did lie about it when I said it couldn't be interfered with, so Mafia wouldn't try to mess with it, but it being a visiting role was- and still is- the truth.
Besides, if you really didn't see anything, shouldn't there be a Ninja from your POV? If there was, there wouldn't be a reason for me to make that specific lie.
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@AustinL0926
What am I to glean from this information...It should be noted that Austin's chess Elo is around 1750.
But speaking of Austin- we do need a hard claim. You aren't getting away with not claiming just because you can't get lynched today.
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@WyIted
Playing the "I did the suboptimal strategy because that's my personality" when that was the exact defense for the villager we just mislynched... Sigh.
One other issue I wanted to address- it looked like you were setting up Austin to be the next lynch regardless of what Moozer flipped- because you said both:
If you (Moozer) flip town than I have to question why he (Austin) knew the one in a billion chance to be true thing was true.
and
Whonis moozers scum partner if it isn't you (Austin)?
Would like to know what happened to that today as well.
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Granted, you would be less likely to see the nightkill in that world, but there would also be a better chance of no nightkill entirely.
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@WyIted
I encouraged moozer to give doc to lunatic so I could see the NK.
Okay, but couldn't you have done the same with someone like Banana instead? That would have forced wolves to go for either a guaranteed kill on a less active player with no role (which you could watch) or try to risk a kill on someone else and potentially collide with the doc.
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WyIted. (Why is it an "i"? I was pronouncing your name as "Wilted" for so long...)
As I said yesterday, my initial POE there was WyIted, Lunatic, and Moozer. Then Moozer's claim happened, which drew a lot of attention and distracted me.
The "Easy" bullet points on WyIted are-
- He was hard defending the now-flipped Mafia.
- He was hard pushing the now-flipped Town.
- His role doesn't quite fit perfectly. If we were to have another Investigative, I would expect something Even-Night to balance out Lunatic's Odd-Night. But also, the discussion about him not seeing anything can easily be WIFOM.
Now, you might be saying, "Cerulean, a lot of people were pushing the now-flipped Town! One of your top Town was pushing Moozer! What makes WyIted the wolfy one?"
To this, I say audacity.
I'd like to think that I'm a reasonable judge of personality. And to me, WyIted absolutely seems like someone who will powerwolf through the game and give their buddy room to breathe. Kind of like how things went with Pie last game- he pushed the bad lynches, I stayed in the background (comparatively) and got townreads. Audacity was also part of the strategy that the team including WyIted used in Villainous Villains- a play that blatantly tailored the Night Kill's role and hoped we would fall for it. WyIted was the main driver on the push, along with WF, and that fits the archetype I suspect here.
The other issue I have is what I think is the major one- which is the mech misunderstanding.
Pretty much any scum team that doesn't have WF wants Lunatic dead as soon as possible so he can't get off any checks and can't keep defending WF. With Moozer's role, the only way to guarantee that Lunatic doesn't get docced is if he actually has the Doc. See Moozer's 128, which came hours before WyIted said Moozer should give Lunatic the Doc.
Other slight issue is that WyIted even suspects now that it's not possible for Moozer to actually be the Doctor Inventor. But the posts during that phase seemed to flip from "I am absolutely 100% sure that Moozer is scum" to trying to get Moozer to take a specific action with his Doc. To me, it looks like two perspectives that don't fit well together.
Phew. Okay. I think that's all. I'm not 100% opposed to a No Lynch today, but I want some answers before I realistically consider it.
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@Earth
Right. That redirect- or something else- would have needed to come from the grave on "Night 1" (the Night following Owen's death). They would have needed to have a role that could do that and figure out that Lunatic was not just a Cop, but a Vanilla Cop to get him to target Banana/You. And that doesn't seem likely at all.
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All of the other four have more pressing issues.
Earth has been mostly... well, existing. There's not a whole lot I can say, but it felt like he flip flopped several times on Moozer throughout the Day. Which is fair in that Moozer shifted slightly in how believable his story was throughout. This isn't awful- he wasn't throwing around TMI- but I'm just not seeing the thought process, for example what between 94 and 145 made him decide he actually wanted to let Moozer use his role.
Bullish has the Governor role. And while I understand the instinct to snap-townlock it, I also worry that there could be some sort of "Corrupt Governor" flavor at play- I suppose someone more in tune with classic movies could correct me or support that theory. The role itself doesn't need to be only Town, because it has a mechanic to prevent the extremely high utility it would have for Mafia (skipping the Night phase). He sort of shares the "irrational extreme confidence in Moozer" issue that Austin had, but not as bad.
Austin, I'm worried about mostly because he might have TMI'd Moozer Town. I'm still struggling with this (which is why I didn't pick him to duel) because I don't see how the agenda works here. Austin white knights Moozer and looks good when Moozer flips Town is one thing, but doing it in the way he did felt so much like he started at the conclusion that I suspect it might wrap all the way back around to being too wolfy. Again, someone can correct me on whether or not Austin is this egregious with TMI as a wolf.
That leaves WyIted, who I'll spare an entire post for.
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You really didn't need to wait on me specifically. But sure, here we go.
Admittedly, I am in a spot where I do not have anyone who is 100% certainly absolutely Town. But I do have people who are close-
Banana being Mafia would require Owen to manage to have the presence of mind to, realizing he was about to die, suddenly turn around and try to bus Banana with the intention of spewing her Town. I don't think that's a very reasonable situation because Owen's posting reads a little frantic in 23 to 25. Not something I would expect from someone trying to pull a calculated bus.
I do also think WF is Town, and I think the Lunatic kill affirms that. In a world where WF is Mafia, their team would want to keep Lunatic alive because Lunatic almost certainly sides with WF in any disputes. Not to mention WF would also need to either be exactly a VT Godfather or would have needed to specifically redirect Lunatic to Banana or Earth (if Town) that Night. But the reason I didn't target WF here specifically was because WF's chain of thought- and especially his reaction to Austin- from pushing Moozer yesterday read as genuine, significantly moreso than WyIted's, in my opinion.
Continued...
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I held off on WyIted for all of yesterday because Moozer was objectively worse, but at this point in the game, out of everyone left, he's the scummiest person in the room.
I'm at work right now- I'll lay out my reasoning for why later.
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It's amusing that we're using host politics as a basis to make decisions here.
But anyway, I think people who are saying to let Moozer confirm himself by targeting Lunatic are missing the point. If we say that out loud for the entire Mafia to hear, then the Mafia is incentivized to kill Lunatic regardless of whether Moozer is actually Mafia or not. And if that happens, we end up right back here with an unconfirmed Moozer, yes?
"The person I gave the ability to got nightkilled" is a transparently easy way for someone claiming this type of role to get around actually confirming themselves.
I don't want WF out, and we're running out of time here, so...
VTL Moozer
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@Moozer325
To be frank, I think the Governor ability's disjoint with your ability is what sinks your claim. They don't mesh well together and it creates potentially weird situations, such that I don't really believe Casey would include both. This is why my Conditional Vigilante claim last game didn't work.
Just in case you are in fact Town, at this point I'd much rather you post a detailed legacy about who you think is Town/Scum. Help us out, here, if we're off the right path.
...or spew your teammate Mafia, that would be useful as well.
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@Lunatic
@whiteflame
So if whiteflame is scum then casey is a bastard mod.
Counterpoint: There was a scum role last game that said explicitly in its text:
you will investigate as if you were a Vanilla Townie.
That being said, it seems fairly unlikely for the exact same thing to show up again. If WF is scum, that makes the most sense in a world paired with you than that specific role being used.
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My vote is spiritually on Moozer, but I'll hold off on hammering in case anyone else has anything else useful to say.
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He plays a very convincing town as scum as we saw last game, but everything I’ve seen from him so far is just too authentic for me to make him fully null.
If it's any consolation, I intend to confirm my role (not alignment, unfortunately) tomorrow and it can't be prevented.
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Well, unless there's a Mafia Odd/Even Night ability, I suppose.
In that case, maybe the team really is as easy as Moozer/Austin. Austin's hard defense certainly didn't do him any favors.
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Mm. I just took it as a given that it would've been Night 2, haven't seen design like that before.
Unless someone else has an odd/even Night ability, that might actually hostspew Lunatic clear.
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@whiteflame
Oh, I suppose I'm the idiot here, then.
Unvote
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Gah, they're both bad, but I don't see them being paired since Lunatic cleared WF who's pushing Moozer. Doesn't make sense from a strategic perspective.
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Because we already did. He had TWO DPS
That does make me wonder... If he had used it Day 1 when the Night got skipped, what would have happened? It seems very ambiguous- he specifically said "for the night" which suggests it only applies the night after use.
This is sort of the line of reasoning that caught my false claim last game- another role exists that makes it seem off.
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I'm suddenly okay with giving Moozer some time to grant the doctor ability.
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Well, that's remarkably simple.
On odd nights I can investigate a person to see if they are a vanilla townie or not.
We haven't had an Odd night. Night 1 was skipped, so last night would have been Night 2. Meaning you shouldn't have a check.
VTL Lunatic
That's not even mentioning that every instance I've seen of Vanilla Cop has always includes goons as "Vanilla."
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@Bullish
Do you think Moozer is Town by extension if WF is scum and pushing him? Give me your "why," I'm listening.
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I mean, I would say "There's no way that someone would be that stupid," but Owen did claim Miller without a lick of irony and then tried to use that exact defense.
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@Earth
I don't think that's a good reason to townread Moozer here. There was a full 8 and a half (9?) hours left in the phase- Evening/Post-work for the US-based people here. Pie had also pinged a bunch of people, so it was pretty likely that someone was going to come in to hammer.
And also, I did say earlier that I was going to come back and explain my reads list... which also had Moozer in the bottom tier.
In my opinion, the better reason to call Moozer Town is that the "I forgot" justification is actually believable based on his playstyle. From the way I've seen Moozer play, it's not unreasonable to me that he might've gotten confused about how it worked or gotten thrown off by the Day Phase timing.
If anyone wants to chime in on the playstyle of Town Moozer vs. Scum Moozer, I'm all ears.
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Moozer's claim is bad, but I don't want to turbo kill him. I'd like to hear from more people today, especially Lunatic
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@WyIted
No, I haven't claimed, but I'll confirm my role tomorrow. All you need to know right now is that it does target someone at night.
Bullish's ability appears to be one shot, and Owen's are each listed as 1x. Strengthener doesn't imply anything about limited shots.
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@WyIted
Pie's role looks like it visits.Do we have claims from anyone who has a visiting role at all and if so who I have been a bit inattentive
Mine also does.
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@whiteflame
3 VT, 5 Town PRs? If real, then it does definitely make sense for a Goon to exist. Pie's and Bullish's (if Town) roles aren't super powerful either, so I can see this just being a low-power game all-around.
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@Lunatic
@WyIted
@Moozer325
Hi all. Good call on Owen.
I'm admittedly not completely torn up by Pie dying, because I was getting a bit worked up in my head over whether he would hellbus a partner like that for fun and profit and to try and spew himself Town- but I suppose not.
My immediate POE of WyIted/Lunatic/Moozer hasn't changed a whole lot. Though, granted, my reasoning on Moozer somewhat depended on him having stronger teammates who were steering discussion away from him. I'm willing to hold off a bit there.
WyIted hard defended and tried to nudge the vote off Owen, so from a Level 0 perspective, I think it's worthwhile to look there. He did eventually vote Owen, but only after it was clear the vote wasn't going to shift.
Lunatic has felt very off compared to last game. He feels like less of an entity who's participating and more of just a floater. I know he might be busy, but it's jarring. And Post 66 in the last phase is... not great. The justifications are waffley and there's no real stances taken that couldn't be changed on a whim.
Moozer also needs to give me more, and I'm still weirded out about the way everyone seems to be sort-of disregarding him. He was on the "obliterate Owen" ride following the claim, so I'm willing to leave him in outer POE now to post better content.
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I think Banana is hard spewed Town by Owen- I don't think anyone was actually considering her, but I wanted to say out loud that she should absolutely never be on the table today.
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Current Mafia:
Casey - Classic Movies Mafia
Signups:
None
In the Hopper:
Lunatic - Yellowstone Mafia
Earth - Paper Mario Mafia
Mharman - Gunplay Mafia
Cerulean - Albums Mafia
On Hold:
None
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(Not ordered within tiers, to be clear. Not that that should matter a whole lot.)
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Earth Banana
Bullish Austin
WF Pie
WyIted Lunatic
Owen Moozer
This is my "off the top of my head" tier list right now. Will explain a little deeper later. Moozer not getting any attention is a little interesting, though- did I miss a reason why we're townreading him?
Bullish Austin
WF Pie
WyIted Lunatic
Owen Moozer
This is my "off the top of my head" tier list right now. Will explain a little deeper later. Moozer not getting any attention is a little interesting, though- did I miss a reason why we're townreading him?
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@WyIted
I think I've ended up with Banana and Earth as my top 2 townies- Earth for the willingness to clear things up early on and Banana for the VT claim. In my opinion, evil Banana probably tries harder to come up with a fake claim than VT.
I actually think owen leans town now and
Why?
The other guy who claimed vanilla Have to reread to remember who it was but whiteflame is the stronger town read between the tw
I hate to break it to you, but that is, in fact, Banana.
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I can understand the perspective of "If I claim this, they're just gonna lynch me again" but you need a little bit more confidence in yourself. If you're a villager you need to be villagery to be found!
But I think that's about enough rambling from me about conceptual matters. Back to the game.
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@Owen_T
I thought it would be best to just keep my head down.
I said this last game. If you're not a strong townie, you need to be open and vocal about your thought process because even if you're not right, you're still being transparent enough that other villagers can find you.
Now granted I was Mafia when I was saying that but it still rings true. I'm not sure why you would think keeping your head down is a good idea when you also got attacked for being "blendy" last time.
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Oh, an abbreviated phase. That's... not what I was expecting. But sure, it's still another 36 hours.
We've got Bullish role (but not alignment) confirmed now. Thoughts on giving a Day for them to lead?
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@Bullish
Well, there's one guaranteed VT according to the OP, so unless someone else is holding that and waiting, at least one is confirmed Town.
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