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Good game. I was still thinking it was Austin and ADOL.
I was really surprised that neither Whiteflame nor Cerulean noticed the differences in roles. Scum claimed Motivator and Bulletproof, which are outliers in a weird Arsonist, Singer, VooDoo Lady, and Oracle. The former two are relatively common.
We did discuss this, but discarded it because there was no real way to know for certain if every single Town-aligned role was going to be something unusual. I thought that Singer and Motivator were both roles that a wolf would look at and say, "This is a good fake claim in a game of unusual roles."
Mharman and Austin made some risky plays, but it clearly worked out well for them.
Regardless, it turns out that I am, in fact, still washed in LYLO scenarios.
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At this point, I don't really see myself coming to a different conclusion. I think Austin and Mharman are hard unpaired and ADOL's role makes a lot of sense as an "Oh God, we need to fake claim, quick! Find an unusual role that makes sense!" claim.
I'll drop my vote now, WF should be left to hammer and give a final legacy.
VTL ADOL
I'll drop my vote now, WF should be left to hammer and give a final legacy.
VTL ADOL
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A lot of this turns on whether or not Mharman's defense of WyIted on Day 2 came from a place of TMI or not. He came in defending WyIted pretty much instantly there...
Granted, so did I. Although this:
I just don’t think there’s any reason to say Wylted’s scum, not even in the slightest.
Was much stronger than what I was saying.
My eyes are starting to hurt staring at this website. I'm going to sleep and come back to this in the morning. Right now, I'm in a position of wanting to lynch ADOL, but I'm not quite ready to commit to that.
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It wasn't like you could predict WyIted deciding to throw things into a spin and let me live- if you're scum there, you're almost definitely setting up on the assumption that I'm going to get lynched and flip Town.
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Austin is a conditional scumlean if we are wrong on Creulean. I don’t think he’s explaining his thoughts well enough on his a couple of his townreads. Bit of a vibe thing as well. Null otherwise.
My other top scumread is Whiteflame. The vibes on him are fine, but the defense of Cwruean is weird to me. I firmly disagree with a few of his points.
Both Mharman, late Day 1. Seems like it would be an odd decision to put yourself in a situation where if I got lynched (and it was very much looking like I would get lynched at that point), your top scumread would be your partner. Again, not impossible, but it would be risky.
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Someone has been playing well. Or I'm just bad at the game. Rereading Day 1, I'm struggling to imagine an Austin/Mharman team just from the way they interact a couple of times, but I'm not sure if I'm setting the bar high enough there.
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Don't remind me...if we hit one of ADOL/Mharman today then WF is almost always dying tonight.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
Why?In that case, at this moment, I would side with Whiteflame and Cerulean for admittedly weak reasons. (ADOL)
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You can't claim that the scum team is ADOL/Mharmen if I lynch Mharmen. (ADOL)
The worst thing is that this could still technically be a villager.
Unlikely, but could. Does a wolf ADOL ever say this if the team is exactly ADOL/Mharman? Even for a newbie, it seems very blatant and over-the-top. Potentially a double-triple-reverse psychology, I suppose.
I'm waiting for Cerulean or WF to weigh in to prove that I'm not partnered with either of you by being willing to lynch whoever the people outside of POE want, showing that I genuinely believe that you and Mharman are both scum. (Austin)
This line makes me... really uneasy. Because, Austin, I know for a fact that you're capable of bussing and being bussed since we did it in Classical Movies. I don't see why you being willing to potentially lynch either player "proves" that you aren't partnered.
I've had, frankly, a stubborn and unreasoning bad feeling about Austin since Day 2 that I can't really substantiate. I need to go and actually reread the previous days.
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This is why we take calculated risks. We now have about 31 hours left to pick someone out of the remaining 3. (Or 4, if you want to count me.)
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@whiteflame
@Mharman
@ADreamOfLiberty
@AustinL0926
WHITEFLAME IS INNOCENT.
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For the record, I haven't received anything yet. I don't know if it's because it failed/WF is lying or if Pie just hasn't been on to give me the info. I'll give it a couple more hours, just in case.
Good to know that specific decision didn't throw the game, at least.
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After that Day 1, I'm not sure how I happened to end up in the position where I need to make this decision.
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@whiteflame
@ILikePie5
After some consideration, I have decided to take the risky path, for three reasons:
1. It provides potentially the most information with the least effort.
2. My role suggests a reason to believe it is not a fatal Voodoo Lady- My ability goes off only when nightkilled, day kills so not count. If a Mafia-aligned day kill existed, I would expect it to be covered by my role.
3. The overall setup. If WF is a Mafia Voodoo Lady, it would mean Mafia has additional kill power in what I perceive as an already-difficult setup for Town. (Though a lot of that difficulty has come from our own mistakes.)
Therefore, this is my acknowledgement that I may be making a game-losing blunder.
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Currently mired in an angleshoot that I need to double-check with Mharman's role, I might have hallucinated it though.
The problem is, and I did not think of this until Night already came, is that if WF is a fatal version of Voodoo Lady, saying the word would instantly end the game for a Mafia win. So I'm going to think it through before I actually do it.
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@whiteflame
That follows, unfortunately he'll probably be dead, and after that there won't be room for a single mistake.
There's already not much room for a mistake. If we lynch wrong here, we lose unless Mafia has some miraculously bad negative utility role or someone partially fake claimed.
Since I didn’t get to use my role, I can say whatever I want about it. My speech is only restricted insofar as I cannot say the word myself. I didn’t get to ask about other forms of it, but I wasn’t intending to use them.
So you could have just said "Hey, Lunatic, can you pretty please write out the full name for JOAT?" and that would have been fine?
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If Lunatic isn't going to be here, we shouldn't vote- a correct lynch needs 4 votes here, so if he's Town and not present, that means that any successful lynches will likely be wrong.
It's unfortunate, but maybe Whiteflame can get that ability off? Otherwise, tomorrow's going to be more of the same.
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@whiteflame
This is a really late time to be asking, but WF, how exactly is your speech restricted with your word? You can't say the exact word, what about other forms of it? Are you allowed to discuss the specifics?
I'm having a last-minute hesitancy about what would be stopping you from hard claiming that and then being extremely obvious about your word, if that role were to be real.
Also, I may as well ask because I don't recall you saying it, what was the word you were using?
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@Lunatic
Maybe should have put names to quotes there. First is Lunatic, second is Whiteflame, third and fourth are ADOL.
I wonder if No Lynching here might not be a bad idea. If Whiteflame is, in fact, Town, it would give him an extra chance to use his ability. That, of course, assumes that Whiteflame is Town and that the Mafia Roleblocker(?) doesn't have another shot. Besides that ability, we don't have anything in the way of Night power here.
Lunatic, where are you at, both theme-wise and overall? Regardless of what happens, this is probably your last day, so it would be good if you had a complete-ish legacy.
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@Lunatic
@whiteflame
@ADreamOfLiberty
What does your targeting a person do?
I think ADOL misinterpreted voting for WyIted as something that should have been reported.
while Bulletproof is most definitely an outlier in terms of how normal it appears compared to the rest, it also seems necessary to balance this game.
Maybe. It's possible that since we appear to have so much negative utility, Mafia might also have some sort of negative utility that restricts their kill ability? That's just spitballing, though.
Although I was never sure Wylted was scum and never said I was sure, there was something that made his claims somewhat suspicious and reading the exact role I see I was right about that, that can wait till after the game since Wylted can't comment.If anyone thinks my analysis was suspicious before I'll explain why I think the suspicion (beyond the theme association) was valid even though it turned out to be wrong.
I'd like for you to elaborate. As much as I would like to, I can't keep giving you the "this player is new and not playing like newbie scum" pass forever. Whtieflame's point about your role seeming tailor-made to fit mine has some merit.
I am unlikely to support lynching Mharman.
Why?
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My impression at the moment is that all of these roles are very unusual. We have:
Prideful Townie
Prober
Hammerer
(all flipped)
Oracle
Arsonist
Singer
Voodoo Lady
Motivator
Bulletproof
(I'm surprised there's nothing really "Protective" here, though Prideful and Bulletproof both have a chance to survive an attack.)
The only role that doesn't really fit the mold compared to the others is Bulletproof, because it's so "normal." If I were to cast a vote based on role claim only, it would be for Mharman- and it wouldn't really surprise me if the Mafia split their votes 1-1 for on/off WyIted.
There's only about a day left, so we either need to be coming to a decision or we're going to end up with a No Lynch and, very likely, a dead Lunatic.
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@AustinL0926
When we're on evens, not really? We wouldn't lose a mislynch unless scum already had another way of killing and it would tell you with a very high likelihood who one of the Mafia members is.Because if he's scum, scum get an extra NK, which is pretty obviously bad.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
I have some thoughts on which claim is most suspicious, but I'd like for ADOL to chime in with their claim first.
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@AustinL0926
so I presume he wouldn't get any message about being motivated.
No, you're not presuming. You're going to go ask if motivating a player without a night action would give feedback or not.
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(For completion's sake, I targeted ADOL Night 1 and Mharman Night 2.)Cerulean Elva Oracle (weak) N/A N/A
Actually, I do wonder if Whiteflame's role name is partially meant to mess with my role- if I were nightkilled while I was on Whiteflame, and he got revealed as Voodoo Lady, that would be a bad look.
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Just to be clear, Pie sends failure messages even to actions that don't typically expect feedback? Is that a usual hosting decision in his games? I was under the impression that WF was softing an investigative role, but that might be my mistake.because my action failed for the second NP in a row:I’m Angela. I am the Voodoo Lady.
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I thought I'd received the "Fell for it Again" award when WyIted said he was scum right at the end there.
Anyway, we clearly need to re-assess the situation now that it is MYLO and we know for sure that the theme being assumed thus far is wrong.
No Lynch is technically an option if we need time and/or a kill for deduction, but it probably just gets Lunatic killed with no real gain.
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@Best.Korea
@DavidAZZ
Stats say that around 80% of those millionaires came from middle class families
The only source I found on this was a self-reporting survey, so I think you might want to lower your estimate. It wouldn't surprise me if some of these people were reporting as "middle-class" falsely either mistakenly or because they wanted to feel better about their achievements.
Contrary to popular belief, not all people have same abilities.
This is a self-defeating mentality. Aren't you the one who's trying everything to increase your IQ? Couldn't you apply that level of dedication to your finances, for instance? Granted, you're not everyone, but there are a lot of people who think, "I'll never have X, so why bother?", which is a mentality that leads to... never achieving X, even when it would have been within their reach.
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@whiteflame
WF, question. Do you think there's a strong reason why I should be considering you Town, and if so, what is it?
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I also thought of this angleshoot, and while it's possible that Pie could have done something a little off-the-wall, I think that ADOL's posting so far has been much more unrestrained and messy than I would expect from a newbie scum.Pie is not making ADOL scum. It is unfair, it is what it is but he's practically confirmed town
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@AustinL0926
I'm not going to shove someone I townlean into a scumlean just for the sake of making two scumreads. (Austin)
This is what "Null" or "Unsure" categories are for. Just because you're so committed to one specific scum person doesn't mean you shouldn't have other possibilities on the table.
As a Townie, I have been shot in broad daylight by a Mafia member who spent half the game making "Cerulean is scum" their entire personality, and they got away with it. Intense focus on a single person to the exclusion of considering other worlds is something I find scummy. What would you do if WyIted flipped town? I don't know because you (and Lunatic, to be fair) have been pushing so hard there and not talking about other possibilities that you could go anywhere if/when he does flip Town.
Where am I wrong on this?
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gamers have a naturally conservative tilt.
Very much depends on the specific circle.
Anyway, I would prefer an Austin or WF vote over WyIted.
I find this especially strange since Oracle is a fairly strong investigative role, the equivalent of a full rolecop that works even after someone dies, and I don't find it very compatible with cop.
I highly disagree. It's maybe a single check that only occurs if I get nightkilled and doesn't even 100% guarantee an alignment check. "Roleblocker" can go Town or Mafia, for instance.
And if you're a buffoon like me who manages to go under fire on Day 1, it becomes worthless.
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I was going to say that we technically don't lose any lynches by not voting here, but we'd probably just lose one of the two locktowns regardless, so there's not much of a point there.
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@AustinL0926
A little bit of both, really. I'm off-put by your list that has literally everyone in "Town/Town lean" besides WyIted. I would expect a Town player to construct a list like that, look at it, and realize "Okay, I have too many Town, I need to set the bar higher," but that train of thought just... isn't there. I know you said that it's ordered within tiers, but I still don't get how you ended up with only one person below "Town lean" when you know there's probably 2 Mafia.do you think I'm actively pushing for a mislynch by voting Wylted? Or are you just bothered by my narrow focus, and why?
This is kind of a nitpick, but sometimes that's what catches the Mafia.
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@AustinL0926
My worry here is that you're focusing on Wylted's day actions to the exclusion of his night actions.
WyIted's night action makes perfect sense from a town POV if you think he either A) wanted to spite Lunatic by vanillizing him or B) wanted to have the go-ahead to hard push Lunatic/the knowledge that the fight was Town v. Town. Emotional play does not a Mafia make.
it's actually a decent play for Wylted to allow a no lynch [as Mafia]
Sure, but the way he went about it screamed uncertainty and hesitancy, which, as I said, I recognize from my own Town play. Am I a different person from WyIted? Sure. But I have a hard time believing this specific series of events and WyIted still ending up as Mafia when no other strong Investigative roles have come forward.
That's my primary hangup with voting WyIted. I can't recall a single game on this site where the Town didn't have at least one reasonably strong Investigative of some sort, even when it was hindered by some other Mafia ability. So either WyIted is that role, someone is silent about theirs, or there isn't one. I find option one most likely.
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Sorry for being so MIA yesterday. I acknowledge WF's point about the willingness to no lynch Day 1, though I'm still not particularly willing to put a full-on townread there.
Unvote
I would like at least one claim between Mharman and Austin. Them plus WF is my current POE.
Also, tbh, almost everyone besides Lunatic and Wylted are flying under the radar.
I'm a bit uneasy about how Austin has been not up to much today besides echoing support on the WyIted lynch. Why, exactly, was he mostly townread yesterday?
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@Lunatic
Do you just reveal an affiliation upon death? I missed where you had claimed
No, just the role name. So for myself, it would be something like "Cerulean is the Oracle."
You understand why I called it weak now, yes? Its use is already limited if I get nightkilled and now that I've claimed it, that will never happen.
Very strong behavioral analysis skills normally that are going to waste this game.
This was why I was so uneasy about Lunatic on Day 1. A lot of his posts were talking about claim viability rather than anything behavioral.
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@Lunatic
Actually, one more thing- Lunatic, is there a particular reason why you believe the theme (Mafia characters are dragons) I suggested isn't viable? I feel like we glossed over that- or did I miss your response?
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@whiteflame
@ADreamOfLiberty
Without night actions and lynch results it's all just speculation. I suspect that DP1 is more or less a random lynch generator unless someone confesses by accident.
That's where behavioral reading comes into play, yes. With... varying results.
Before I go to bed for the night, I might as well do this.
VTL Whiteflame
Can anyone tell me why he's Town and I'm wrong? I read something like this:
But I don't see much action to move past it. After that post, there were a couple of others where Whiteflame expressed dissatisfaction about eliminating me, but didn't really seem inclined to put any real effort into moving the needle. No real alternatives offered.
I'm trying not to retroactively OMGUS here, but I'm uneasy about it. There were still 6 hours left at the time of Post 200, so WF could have tried to go elsewhere, but didn't. Why? Can someone sanity check if I'm being reasonable about this?
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@ADreamOfLiberty
No offense, but do you have a frame of reference for what's "too complicated"? We often have talk here of how standard Cops are a little overpowered, so there usually have to be mechanics in place that make them weaker in some way (framing, lawyering, redirecting). The vanillization here would be a way to make the Cop role weaker while still aligning with the character, as far as I can tell.Right now I am inclined to think that this modified vanillaizer town, but villain themed character, is too complicated to believe.
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I do have a player targeted with my ability, but I don't see any point to saying it aloud, so I won't.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
That true? People have been revealing characters and roles, it would be strange not to allow the exact wording.
I'm currently in a state of believing WyIted, to be honest. It makes sense to have one useful investigative and one much weaker one, and I still find WyIted's behavior extremely difficult to believe as being Mafia. I find that it resembles my own wavering on a lynch when it just "feels off" at an EOD.
...And if I believe WyIted, it makes sense to believe Lunatic as Town.
And I don't think ADOL's is a thought process a newbie Mafia would be able to fake. Some of these are questions that would typically end up in scum chat.
And I still don't really think Earth's role + character combo are something Mafia would go for in a fake claim. There are much more likely things that are less likely to get an accidental "oops, maybe we should policy this just in case" vote.
Which only leaves me with Mharman, Austin, and WF.
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You can see that from the opening prologue when he kills a couple of Urgals just for failing him.
Classic.
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@Lunatic
There was a point in time where he could have just waited for Whiteflame to hammer me, if I recall correctly. But he specifically unvoted when it was 3/5 to make it 2/5.
Granted, there is a possible Mafia incentive in that a No Lynch leaves me as a potential lynch option down the line. So it's not particularly clearing.
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@WyIted
WyIted, I want to know two things at the moment- first, is your ability specifically worded that you cannot target the same person twice? Second, what is your exact reason for vanillizing Lunatic?
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@ADreamOfLiberty
Did Wylted know you primed him? He might call it self-defense if he did.
I suspect it's more likely just "Lunatic is hard accusing me in a bad way, he's scum" if WyIted is Town.
That being said, it is overtly suspicious to not target the safer option, Earth.
All the mafia know who each other are right?
Most likely, yes. At least one mechanic of the game (the ability to ask about roles/characters) suggests that they share a chat.
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@Lunatic
In that case, who's the other character that you think fits with Galbatorix? Durza?
My belief was that the Mafia characters were going to be dragons. It would be a clear split that wouldn't be as simple as "Good vs. Evil," and nobody has claimed a dragon as a character yet.
Murtagh literally had no choice but to serve him, and by the end of the series he breaks free from Galbatorix's service.
Okay, but I'm reading the flavor in Casey's role and seeing:
When you first encounter Eragon, you are quick to assert that you want nothing to do with the Varden. (The good guys) You value your autonomy above all else, unwilling to accept help, even when you know you need it. Your pride is evident when you refuse to join the Varden outright, even after seeing the evil that Galbatorix has wrought. But as the events unfold, your pride becomes both a strength and a trap.
This doesn't seem like an unambiguously "good" character even if he does become "good" by the end of the series.
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@WyIted
It's a waste of a day if we No Lynch and I don't want to repeat the same day tomorrow.
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