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Cerulean

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Total posts: 61

Posted in:
Villainous Villains Endgame
I suppose this was a real slip that I didn't push hard enough, then.
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Posted in:
Villainous Villains Endgame
I should have suspected the moment Lunatic was evasive about whether or not the game was bastard or not in messages.
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Villainous Villains Endgame
Well that was... unexpected.
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Villainous Villains DP2
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@Earth
but I think alignment confirming you is still good, especially that Mhar was TP.
Right, but you didn't know Mhar was TP at the time, just "guilty," yes? We didn't get the full role flip until the start of this Day Phase, so that's not really a strong justification to have investigated Pie specifically.
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Villainous Villains DP2
That's quite a cross-post.

In any case, I'm putting my money where my mouth is.
VTL Earth

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Villainous Villains DP2
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@WyIted
It also explains all the likes early in the dp. It was pie signaling his reads potentially
That's horrifying to think about. But there were likes on both posts voting Earth and Earth defending himself, so I don't believe it's completely correct.

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Villainous Villains DP2
No. Jester is considered bastard on the site.

Luna is a pretty responsible host and he would not put that role.
The good old days... yesterday.


Oh, and scum might have a janitor where they could have cleaned JoeBob's role and saved Earth, that they neglected to use here.
A 1 or 2 shot Janitor? Maybe.

We can hardly let Earth go anywhere near MYLO/LYLO unless we manage to specifically flip a scum flip forger, yes? Better to resolve the slot this Day Phase and find out if the game is bastard or not. We're likely at 7-2 right now, so we would still have a mislynch to spare if this was somehow incorrect and we would have significantly more useful information about the game.
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Villainous Villains DP2
I scanned through DP1 looking through things that would have been "better" for Earth to Lie Detect, because picking Pie of all people is... pretty bad, considering that Pie looked excellent after that End of Day. There were some character claims that could have been partially investigated, such as WyI's Billy Mitchell.
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Villainous Villains DP2
Well, either it's a fake flip, or Earth was doomed from the start. Take your pick, but either one is unusual.

For the record, if it's real and Earth is scum, I think Owen is always a Villager (not that there was much doubt on that front). The way Owen's play and the slightly non-random distribution of alignment have been described makes me think Lunatic wouldn't force him into needing to win a Final 3 solo.
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Villainous Villains DP2
Anything like the Town Scum Lyncher role? I once hosted a game that featured a similar role (an "Insider Agent" who shared the Mafia chat, was aligned with Town, but could not hint at the role under penalty of modkill and instant loss), but including the information in the flip here seems even more egregious, since it essentially guarantees that Earth would die eventually.
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Villainous Villains DP2
This is a good point. The flipped PM and my own have a quote, character bio, implied justification, role name, and a wincon, in that order. Joebob's has his role name at the beginning.
Mine is character name, bio, justification, role name, wincon, quote, in that order.

I was not expecting to live in a world where we're angleshooting the PMs themselves, but here we are, I suppose.

I can hardly believe that Lunatic would subject himself to hosting a mechanic like this, it's rather annoying to host based on my past experiences. Is there precedent here for either a role like this or unannounced bastard mechanics like fake flips?

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Villainous Villains DP2
I do think Beowulf is an odd character choice, either as a real or a fake flip. As far as I'm aware, he's not particularly villainous.

Hold on a moment. I've been thinking, and I take back what I said. DO NOT quick hammer. 
I'd love to hear a bit more about what you're thinking about here.
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Villainous Villains DP2
I win with the town.

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Villainous Villains DP2
Joebob's flip being fake would of course be hugely bastard, so I'm not even going to consider the possibility of that.
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Villainous Villains DP2
That's certainly... A role? I wouldn't expect that sort of information to flip on death, but here we are, I suppose. We could just turbo-lynch Earth unless someone has something critical to relay.

Mhar flipping 3p unfortunately means that Pie/Owen aren't 100% clear. Although they still both look pretty good.
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Villainous Villains DP1
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@ILikePie5
For the record, I do believe Pie should be locked Town until MYLO/LYLO if Mhar flips Mafia. (Not 3rd party, you do not get credit for hard pushing a 3rd party) This whole deal is in the case where Mhar does not flip Mafia.

There was one thing Pie portrayed while pushing Mhar that didn't exactly check out to me when I double checked it.
Are you though? You lynched your top townread last game just for information. Getting a claim from a slight townread shouldn’t be that big of a deal.

This... doesn't seem to match up with what actually happened? Forgive me if I'm missing something with the timing, but the "last game" referred to here is the Ace Attorney game, right? The one where Owen was lynched Day 1.

It doesn't align at all with what Mhar actually did at the end of the first Day. If we look at Mhar's posts there...
Guys we need to lynch Aavant. Now.

VTL Savant
https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/11342/posts/459094 This is 7 minutes before the End of Day, when Owen is at L-1. It's not until 2 minutes later when it's clear that nobody besides Owen is joining him that he actually flips.
Unvote VTL Owen

Fine.
If lynches only happen on majority, this is hardly "lynching a top townread for information." Lynching is almost always optimal compared to No-Lynching in a game like this, especially when the role Owen was claiming there wasn't powerful. It's not comparable to the context of this game.

TLDR: Pie's description of what Mhar did last game doesn't seem to align with what Mhar actually did, which is kind of concerning when it was being used to case Mhar.
(once again, this can be freely ignored if Mhar does flip scum)
Pie, am I getting something wrong about what you were saying here? This has been bugging me for a little while, and I figure now is as good a time as any to ask and clear the air.
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Villainous Villains DP1
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@Mharman
I'm not asking about Pie. I know you scumread him and there are some issues I have as well... which I intend to bring up soon. Hopefully nobody is going to quickhammer.

I want to know where you're at with everyone else. Who are likely partners for Pie and why? In some godforsaken hell world where both you and Pie are Town, what do you think the Mafia team looks like? Is there anyone you're confident is Town in any either case?

Town often loses because they ignore the perspectives of the dead. So at the very least, if you're a villager, try and give us a hand here.
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Villainous Villains DP1
Aside once more: Should we be worried at all about Jester-like roles- that is, a role that intentionally tries to get lynched (and possibly penalizes the voters if successful)? This is more of an aside than actually relevant to this lynch because from the start, Mhar didn't seem like they were intentionally trying to garner suspicion in any way.
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Villainous Villains DP1
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@Mharman
I am certainly not opposed to killing Mhar here, but I'm not going to insta hammer in the interest of letting anyone else (Casey, Earth, Austin, Barney) give their commentary first. We still have... 36 hours? Somewhere in that range, I believe. There's no need to rush it, especially in the case where we might have someone with Day actions.

...and I would love to hear a legacy from Mhar that goes beyond "Pie scum." If you're really a villager, you need to give us a little bit more, because to be frank, a significant part of this is your fault, and we're going to have a real mess of a day tomorrow.
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Villainous Villains DP1
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@Mharman
I do actually have a behavioral reason on you. I think dumping Owen to the very bottom of your initial readlist is, first of all, pretty impolite, but second of all, fairly low effort. You conflated newness with scumminess without leaving much benefit of the doubt, in my opinion. It looks as if you were just picking someone "easy" to suspect.

(I also do wonder if your hard townread on me might have been pocketing, but it seems like everyone was townreading me, so I can't be sure. In any case "Asking the right questions" is fairly slim reasoning when most of my questions by that point could have been coming just as easily from scum.)
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Villainous Villains DP1
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@Mharman
Indeed, horrifyingly bad gambit, if it's actually real. As a PR you need to know when to fold the fancy fake claiming and be real. Being at L-1 in a semi-upick is not the time to be faking it.
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Villainous Villains DP1
I'm going to assume that 2 Bulletproof is against Lunatic's "host meta"?

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Villainous Villains DP1
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@Owen_T
Mharman is scum. I'm Fidel Castro, and my ability is bullet proof. Unless there can be two bullet proof. 
Oh, that's... interesting.


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Villainous Villains DP1
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@Mharman
Looking him up right now.

Like I said. I want to bait the NK.
In my opinion, you'd already failed at that the moment you hinted that you were TI. Trying to nightkill a TI on Night 1 of a role madness semi-upick is extremely risky because of a Doctor or Watcher possibility, so most wolves except the most cocky are going to skip it.

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Villainous Villains DP1
That is not a stellar claim and not something that was really worth hiding for that long.

Not going to insta hammer, but you go into the "maybe lynch this" list for the time being.

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Villainous Villains DP1
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@ILikePie5
What about anyone you're confident is Town aligned? That's also fairly important, I'd say.

(Aside question- is majority required to lynch, or just to hammer? For example, if the time runs out with a 4-3-3-1 vote spread, does the 4-vote target die or nobody?)
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Villainous Villains DP1
Ack, I need to stop repeating the same phrases.
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Villainous Villains DP1
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@ILikePie5
@Owen_T
This is a bit of a mess, to be frank!

This back-and-forth is sucking the air out of the thread, in my opinion.


Pie, do you have any reads at the moment that don't rely on Mhar being scum? This is an intentional redirection, to be frank- I've seen scum hide behind plausible-looking deathtunnels before. Humor me, at least for a few minutes.
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Villainous Villains DP1
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@WyIted
No offense, Wyl, but Mhar doesn't strike me as that incompetent. He wrote up an entire readslist earlier- I have doubts he would... what, hard claim a Vigilante-like role and then retract it like that? It reads a lot more like pissed-off snark.

(for the record: Caroler can grant an investigation result to someone but fails if they're visited, Veteran shoots visitors, Park Ranger heals visitors, Babysitter protects people but kills instead if they die during the night- all of these change drastically if scum team knows your claim)
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Villainous Villains DP1
I can think of a few roles that one might want to hide that become zero/negative utility when claimed. Caroler, any flavor of Veteran-like. Camp Cadaver's Park Ranger, though I somehow doubt that that one is present in the game. Maybe Babysitter, although that one doesn't actually become zero utility.

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Villainous Villains DP1
(The reason I'm hesitating here is because I'm trying to intuit what Mhar is claiming to decide if it's worth forcing out or not)
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Villainous Villains DP1
Here are the only roles I consider a PR

1. Doctor
2. Cop
Is this a terminology difference? I use "PR" to refer to any role that has any active ability pretty much.
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Villainous Villains DP1
Well, you have sounded like you think that's true for any role claim this game.
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Villainous Villains DP1
This is very specific without being specific at all, somehow? A village PR that helps scum... Why would you overtly say that if you're so concerned about how scum is going to exploit claims?

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Villainous Villains DP1
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@WyIted
I have never seen him make a joke.
Well...
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@<<<Cerulean>>>
You can expect a box of chocolates.

Jokes aside, it’ll probably pick up as the day goes on, and DP1 we have a lot of craziness as we all try to figure out what is going on.

I'm going to reread the initial back and forth that led to this... whatever this is. Though the fact that neither of them are seeming willing to even consider that the other is town right now is a bit concerning.
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Villainous Villains DP1
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@WyIted
Jack schitt us apparently a 2023 horror film and it's like a slasher film. I think once he soft claimed my role and I noticed it, he is trying to change his character and claim he was joking
Are we actually taking this claim at face value? I immediately assumed he was screwing around.
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Villainous Villains DP1
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@Mharman
Mhar, is there anything in particular about Pie's reasoning that makes you think it's not genuine rather than a villager deathtunneled on you?
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Villainous Villains DP1
Unvote (this was a stale vote on joebob)

I can imagine what soft you might think is being talked about here, though I'm not certain we're on the same page about it. Hm. Avoiding a claim at L-2 is interesting considering if your role is as important as you seem to be portraying, you'd probably want to... not get lynched.
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Villainous Villains DP1
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@Owen_T
The idea behind character claiming is giving us an idea of what each player might be capable of doing. For instance, knowing that Austin's character is a Mafia boss might not inherently make Austin evil-aligned, but it might imply that if he is evil, he could be investigated as good regardless (since that's the "Godfather" role type).

I initially thought the Billy Mitchell claim would have Veteran or some sort of Killing charges, since he was a military individual, but the reveal that the Billy Mitchell chosen was a gamer instead has me confused.



By the way, is there a particular reason why you believe this:
refusal to claim seems like a town tell.
Since it's the basis for 2 of your town reads.
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Villainous Villains DP1
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@Owen_T
Where are you at with this game right now, Owen? A lot of your recent posts have been about people's activity levels. Do you have any strong alignment-related thoughts on anyone at the moment? Any posts that stick out to you?

I want you to be at least somewhat active here because if you're town, you seem like you're likely to get mislynched. No offense intended, it's just that I can see you got mislynched Day 1 in the Ace Attorney game and Mhar has already put pressure on you this game.
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Villainous Villains DP1
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@ILikePie5
I vaguely suspect that Pie vs. Mhar might be a villager-villager fight. It feels like they're both talking past and misunderstanding each other a bit.

B) Him not wanting people to full claim is 100% at odds with his past gameplay.
Do you mind being a little more detailed about this, Pie? I understand the gist of it, but are you specifically saying that the town version of Mharman frequently angles for full claims on people, even those he townreads, on Day 1? Or something else? My worry here is that you might be comparing apples and oranges of different contexts.
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Villainous Villains DP1
Anyway, regarding characters: My character is the main character of a book series/tv series, both of which came out after 2000. I think that's about detailed enough for now.
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Villainous Villains DP1
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@Mharman
Post 121, he says that he doesn’t support the Wylted train because it’s going to help scum get identify PRs, which doesn’t make sense at all unless he knows Wylted is town.
I don’t know who’s what for sure. But I do townread him. If I think someone is town, why the hell should I push for a full claim on him?
The problem is that you stated it like a fact, which can make it look like TMI. Especially since as of Post 117, you only had Wylted as "Ever so Slight Town." Did something change in the 15 minutes between 117 and 121, or are you that cautious with claims that even someone you very slightly townread is someone you think shouldn't claim?
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Villainous Villains DP1
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@AustinL0926
https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/11413/posts/461107 feels like it should be alignment indicative for Mhar. I'll come back to it.

I'll play under the assumption that we have 8 Town, 2 Mafia, 1 3P, since people have said that Lunatic's host meta includes 3Ps with a reasonable frequency... and also because this:
I think 9-2 and 8-3 are town sides and scumsided respectively.
sounds about right.

I'm not full claiming.
You’ll full claim at L-1, which I will get you to
I think I mildly townread this overconfidence.

My initial reaction would be to give you a townread for giving that up with no pressure, since it "looks" so bad, but I'm wary of a "refuge in audacity" bluff. You, or someone else, can correct me if this is wrong, but from the few posts I've seen from you so far, you strike me as someone who might try to pull that sort of strategy off.
Can you explain why you think I would have the kind of playstyle to try this?
It's admittedly not a strong opinion, but you appear relatively competent and Owen mentioned this:
He claimed he had a power to determine scum from three people, so mechanical. I didn't follow up after I was lynched but he was lying for some reason. 
If you're willing to play like that as a villager it wouldn't surprise me if you might also try to pull an audacious "a Mafia wouldn't do that" play as Mafia.

(also, to be clear, because I might subconsciously swap up language in a later post- I use "Mafia" and "Wolf" and "Scum" interchangeably)
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Villainous Villains DP1
Morning, all. I'll be hanging around to backread for a little while here.

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Villainous Villains DP1
Ah, I see. Thanks! (Though I'm sure to get a bit of whiplash reading mafia posts and then seeing a post on a thread like "Evidence JD Vance was the correct pick")

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Villainous Villains DP1
"ISO" as in "Isolation" meaning filtering by a single person's posts. It's a feature on MafiaUniverse (and Discord, another place where I play Mafia often) that can be used to quickly skim through a single player. It makes sense that a site like this wouldn't have it, so I'll need to adjust. Unless it is present here and I've just missed it.

And by all means, you don't have to treat me like I'm fragile or anything. I can handle myself.

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Villainous Villains DP1
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@WyIted
Not having an ISO function might smite me, but that's a problem for future Cerulean.

Anyway, sure. I'll bite for a bit.

VTL Joebob

Tell me more about
we always get reads on joebob wrong

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Villainous Villains DP1
Hm. I'm going to give the benefit of the doubt for now and assume this isn't a "We're teamed and I made a slip by stating my teammate's character as a fact when it was actually more ambiguous than that" situation from you. There's plenty of time left, after all.

But I've got my eye on you two. <o>
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Villainous Villains DP1
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@Barney
Why did you pick the Gamer for Billy Mitchell? I gave a quick google and found https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billy_Mitchell, which I thought could fit the villain theme because of:

He antagonized many administrative leaders of the Army with his arguments and criticism and in 1925, his temporary appointment as a brigadier general was not renewed, and he reverted to his permanent rank of colonel, due to his insubordination. Later that year, he was court-martialed for insubordination after accusing Army and Navy leaders of an "almost treasonable administration of the national defense"[4] for investing in battleships. He resigned from the service shortly afterwards.

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