Cerulean's avatar

Cerulean

A member since

2
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4

Total posts: 357

Posted in:
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL Mafia Endgame
That ended more quickly than I expected. Hardly even followed what was going on there.
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Mafia Mod Sign-Up List
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@Lunatic
@WyIted
Sounds a bit hasty to me. Let's give it another day or so- maybe things will shift.

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5k AMA
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@Mharman
What is your greatest fear?
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LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL Mafia [Sign-Ups]
You could join the MafiaUniverse Discord and post a link in the "offsite-games" channel, I suppose. I'm uncertain if that would actually net you any players, though.
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LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL Mafia [Sign-Ups]
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@Mharman
@Skipper_Sr
Funny, my father went to Mizzou. I even have a couple of shirts from there.

But Mharman means MafiaUniverse, which would be a no. Whenever I suggest this site to people, they take a look, see Pie's pfp, and decide not to join. I'm skipping out on this one because I already committed to a couple of games of experimental varieties, which I expect to be taking up my focus.
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Paper Mario Mafia Epilogue
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@Mharman
You're fine. At least you eventually came around, hm?

Although I wasn't Town, either. So you were sort of right in the first place, just for the wrong reasons.
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Paper Mario Mafia Epilogue
It does kind of make sense in terms of the nightkill. Pie and Barney were Mafia. I was scumread. Lunatic could have been protected. Casey was a weak "PR." Skipper was an easy mislynch to swing. So it really seems like it would have come down to WyIted or WF.
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Paper Mario Mafia Epilogue
For fun, here are the fake claims I had waiting in the wings:

(Day 1, before I figured out the theme split)
You are Lady Bow! You are the mistress of Boo's Mansion with a group of loyal Boos behind you. After using a Star Spirit as leverage to get Mario's assistance with a pressing issue, you join him to help rescue Princess Peach. Because one of your main abilities is to make both Mario and yourself transparent, you are the 2x Commuter. Two times during the game, you have the option to hide and will become unable to be targeted by any night actions for that night. You win with the Town.

(Day 2, though I decided to claim mostly truthfully instead)
You are Lava Piranha! Lava Piranha is a multi-headed beast that rules Lavalava Island and guards a Star Sprite from Mario. After its initial defeat, the Lava Piranha comes back for a second round. Because of this, you are the 1x Bulletproof. The first time you are attacked, you will survive. You win with the Town.
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Paper Mario Mafia Epilogue
Wow, there really were three role-failing abilities in play.

Ah, well. I've learned never to hard claim 3p again unless it's a strategic tactic. ;)
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Paper Mario Chapter 3
Unsurprising. Pie/Barney?
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Paper Mario Chapter 2
Jailkeeper doesn't seem like an ability that would be given notice of failure.
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Paper Mario Chapter 2
Ah, is that hammer? It was meant to be an appeal specifically to Pie's ego. Too bad.
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Paper Mario Chapter 2
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@ILikePie5
Also, no disrespect, but this game is low effort compared to my other ones. I don't mind it taking a while to finish.

If I really wanted to end it fast, I would have concocted an excuse to vote Casey and give Mafia an opportunity to coordinate a quick hammer.
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Paper Mario Chapter 2
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@ILikePie5
This has to be a policy lynch because the math isn’t on our side.
Fair enough. I'm not sure why I expected you to avoid the cowardly move.

I do think it's interesting that WyIted keeps insisting there must be a Redirector, not a Roleblocker. My initial impression was that he fumbled TMI and had to frantically go "actually, here's why a Roleblocker doesn't make sense," but he's still doubling down.
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Paper Mario Chapter 2
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@Lunatic
Yeah but he fake claimed lol 
Sigh.

You didn't answer my question, by the way - why do you think you're alive? I'd like an answer by the time I come back from work, thanks.
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Paper Mario Chapter 2
I'm willing to detour over to Pie for a while. He was very hesitant to claim in Mayday when we were wolfing together, but if I recall right, he did claim fairly quickly in the Bo Burnham game, yes?

VTL Pie
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Paper Mario Chapter 2
If I had to pick a partner for Barney that's not WyIted... probably Pie. I haven't seen anything that would really convince me off of him this game. Everyone else has at least something in their favor, in my eyes. But I don't feel I have a solid reason to be townreading Pie.

...Has he even claimed? Have I forgotten?
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Paper Mario Chapter 2
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@Lunatic
It's a joint win.

I'm not even entirely sold on Barney being Mafia, but I do think it's odd that he picked Magic on Casey the consensus Town instead of Shell, which very likely would have been protective.
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Paper Mario Chapter 2
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@Skipper_Sr
@WyIted
It was claimed here.

I've just realized, Skipped claimed Jailkeeper without claiming a target? I have an idea of who the best jail target would be, but I want to hear it from the source.
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Paper Mario Chapter 2
Casey's ability deactivates in LYLO, so the only way a quick hammer would happen there is if I suddenly changed my mind and decided to side with the Mafia.
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Paper Mario Chapter 2
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@Lunatic
Why do you think you're alive right now? Why did the Mafia go for an unclaimed POE player instead of you, who claimed a strong investigative or protective role? This is a genuine question, not rhetorical.
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Paper Mario Chapter 2
The win condition is that I win when either Town or Mafia reach their own win condition.
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Paper Mario Chapter 2
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@Lunatic
Yes indeed. About to kill me on policy? Because you might as well at least discuss the implications of me telling the truth first.
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Paper Mario Chapter 2
I do have lingering doubts on Barney, since my character makes it ambiguous if the theme split is "Bosses aligned with Bowser / Bosses who aren't" or "Characters aligned against Mario / Characters aligned with Mario."

If any of you are paying attention to the wiki, Jr. Troopa is very specifically not aligned with Bowser.
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Paper Mario Chapter 2
I am The Master, and I am a Commuter Survivor. Which is to say that I am not Town-aligned, I win with either Town or Mafia.

The justification for being a Commuter is that I am optional, but very difficult to fight. (Frankly, I think PGO would have been a better role.)

I was considering fake claiming Lava Piranha, 1x Bulletproof, but considering that my true role all but directly contradicts WyIted, I might as well be honest.

If this gets me policy eliminated, c'est la vie. I didn't feel like wolfing for a third game in a row.

VTL WyIted
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Paper Mario Chapter 2
I'm in the hot seat, hm? Time to make it a little hotter.
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Paper Mario Mafia Chapter 1 (DP1)
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@Skipper_Sr
I would like to hear more from you, Skipper- if you have time to backread, there's a lot of discussion that you might find some value in. Even a stream of consciousness ramble about your thoughts of what's going on would be helpful for us. If you're Town, the best way to help us find you as Town is to give us something to work with.

I'm going to sleep imminently, but I'll certainly be back before the end of the day.
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Paper Mario Mafia Chapter 1 (DP1)
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@WyIted
I honestly won't lynch outside of  Casey, mharman, WF and cerulean though so am unlikely to participate in a lynch that is not in that range
You townread Pie, Lunatic, Skipper, and Barney enough that you'd rather No Lynch than have them voted out?
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Paper Mario Mafia Chapter 1 (DP1)
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@Mharman
My concern right now is that we have 12 and a bit pages of content and the one person you're pushing right now is the newbie lowposter.

I'm not going to get on a high horse and say I've never hard pressured a newbie before to get them to crack in a Town!me game, but it's an easy "default" place for a wolf to push because new players struggle with self-defense. (See- Mayday)
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Paper Mario Mafia Chapter 1 (DP1)
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@WyIted
I don't see lunatic as scum. I don't doubt he has a good scum game, but not that good. He's earned my respect if he can fake the behavior he has shown this DP
Between the two, Lunatic definitely looks better. Level of emotion that seems hard to fake, with the CC and... 353, I guess. Hence why my vote is on WF.

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Paper Mario Mafia Chapter 1 (DP1)
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@Mharman
Mharman, gun to your head, who do you think is the exact scum team right now and why? You're waffling a bit.

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Paper Mario Mafia Chapter 1 (DP1)
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@WyIted
Scum are more likely to be inflexible with reads and cerulean doesn't like changing his vote or reads. 
This is a valid take, I suppose. I was thinking about where to go and didn't have a whole lot of time to go back and recheck Lunatic and WF.

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Paper Mario Mafia Chapter 1 (DP1)
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@ILikePie5
Whiteflame’s vote on Mharman right after Luna’s is very interesting 
This is a good shout. I've been rolling around an idea in my mind of at least one, possibly both scum, between WF and Lunatic. They both sort of jumped onto Mharman for the push on me.

VTL WF

I'm going to double-check, but it feels like WF has been... less, this game? Maybe it's IRL business causing issues, but it seems like he's been more of a background voice so far.

I wasn't much paying attention to the last game, so if anyone wants to chip in on whether he's resembling that, let me know.
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Paper Mario Mafia Chapter 1 (DP1)
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@Mharman
Which would require an implication of Casey, given that she’s the only other player who has full claimed up to this point.
This isn't quite correct. Remember, WyIted claimed General Guy. Even if it's not a full claim, it could still be the fake claim and implicated under this logic, yes?
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Paper Mario Mafia Chapter 1 (DP1)
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@Mharman
it’s also the reason why I said there was interesting townie point Cerulean had in his favor- he spotted it and told me to be careful about slipping role information… I’m assuming he saw where I said “I can think of one reason town would try really hard to avoid a mislynch, dunno if it applies to Skipper” (223)
This isn't what I was calling out. It was this:

Time to pressure for a claim, perhaps a mislynch. (88)
Because it implied to me that you thought you had a bad role/character that would get mislynched. I had a problem with it because, if you're Town, it's a big flag to Mafia saying "I can be pushed, don't nightkill me!"
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Paper Mario Mafia Chapter 1 (DP1)
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@Mharman
I see two people who had a chance to push me hard while I was on a really stupid push, and was getting sussed by some people for it. I still am, and both have shown restraint to push me, despite how easy of a mislynch I could be. (212)

Forget it. I’m done defending from myself from Lunatic’s very shaky psycholoanalysis and damned if I do, damned if I don’t reasoning about whether or not I’d acknowledge an OMGUS.

Whiteflame is on me and not budging as well for… reasons I guess, and Casey wanted my claim despite townreading me. (223)
Is there a reason why you're saying that WyIted and I are Town for not pushing you, but you're not- or weren't- saying the opposite about Lunatic and WF for pushing you? The thought of "Someone is using Mharman's OMGUS-looking push to swing a mislynch on him" has crossed my mind a couple of times, I'd be surprised if it hadn't crossed yours.

I was considering voting Lunatic, but need to go back and reread to see if that actually makes sense when I'm not in the moment, so to speak.
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Paper Mario Mafia Chapter 1 (DP1)
Conspiracy theory time: do you read this interaction between them as a potential bus or are you really sold on mharmans case
If you really need to know, I reacted like that because it's the first time any of you have bothered with trying to push me on Day 1.
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Paper Mario Mafia Chapter 1 (DP1)
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@whiteflame
Who's the scummiest person/bottom 2 to you right now, WF? You seem to have everyone as null or a town lean. I know you say you don't have any solid scumreads- but there must be someone at the bottom of your hierarchy of reads.



VTL Cerulean for full claim
Both my character and my role give scum a lot of information if I claim, I think, so I'd rather avoid doing that today. If a majority want it, though, I'll at least claim my character.
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Paper Mario Mafia Chapter 1 (DP1)
If I could travel back in time to last night, I suppose I could tell you exactly why.

Likely, it's because I was about to go to sleep and just wanted to have the post sent.

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Paper Mario Mafia Chapter 1 (DP1)
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@WyIted
I still don't know what to think of her. Why say those lines and vote you? Is it hedging her bets?
I don't think it's that confusing. She seemed to disagree with Mharman on most points, but me not explaining why I was keeping my vote on Mharman was problematic- so she pressure voted me.

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Paper Mario Mafia Chapter 1 (DP1)
At that point, if I had no strong scumread, I would have unvoted. 
Then we differ there. I don't like having my vote not on anyone at all. Using votes is a good way to display action moreso than just words- a way of saying, "This is the person who is worst to me at this moment." and committing to it.

I saw no reason to leave, and so I remained.

So, why didn’t you? To me, it looks you were avoiding commitment more than you were apparently thinking I was. 
Not fully convinced off of Mhar at the moment, I'll hold on to my vote there.
"Avoiding commitment" would me saying "I still don't feel amazing about Mhar, but I'll unvote for now." I was under the impression that what I said implied well enough what I thought about your posting- that it wasn't amazing, but not bad enough to lay down a case.

but one question: why conclude that’s suspicious?
Admittedly, projecting a bad habit of mine. I have the occasional tendency to avoid thread for a while after the game starts when I'm wolfing.
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Paper Mario Mafia Chapter 1 (DP1)
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@Casey_Risk
I don't think it's unreasonable to read into activity, especially since you were online before then.
Was he? That's some important context I missed out on.
I checked it before I placed the vote. Mhar wasn't online at the time (approximately 16:45), but apparently was online 4 hours beforehand (12:45?), which might have been after the day started (12:35). 

Granted, the hours might not have matched up exactly since these sorts of things typically round. But in any case, I still wanted to see Mharman in thread and posting.

It was never meant to be a compelling piece of evidence, just a starting point.
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Paper Mario Mafia Chapter 1 (DP1)
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@WyIted
I could see a world in which he was instructed to do that to make himself look as noob town as possible.
That sounds like a Pie thing to do. Maybe WyIted. Definitely not an unbelievable world.



Anyway,
VTL WyIted
What thought process led you to 131? I think it's strange that you were shading Casey for "not noticing flawed logic" when you seemingly didn't read the posts in question.
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Paper Mario Mafia Chapter 1 (DP1)
The more thinking out loud you do the better it is
This is true. It's much easier for Mafia to push you over if your mind is a black box where we can't see into. Especially for a newbie player, it's harder for Mafia to fake a convincing looking chain of thought.
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Paper Mario Mafia Chapter 1 (DP1)
And Casey does push back on Mharman's logic in posts 98 and 101:
It's weird that you put that in quotes when he didn't say that. 
Personally, I read his vote as being an activity vote first and foremost. What makes you so sure it was a reaction test?
Like yeah, he could give all sorts of responses to other players' responses to his fake reaction test, but who's to say that he would have done any of that?
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Paper Mario Mafia Chapter 1 (DP1)
Mharman's one point against me that does hold some weight- that I didn't thoroughly explain my reasoning for keeping my vote- is what Casey seemed to vote me off of. I don't think it's unreasonable, even if the rest of Mharman's case is baked with paranoia as the primary ingredient.
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Paper Mario Mafia Chapter 1 (DP1)
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@Barney
Any other thoughts on the game? I saw that you're busy, but you seem to have enough time to collect all of the claims, so I assume you read through thread and might have some opinions at this point.

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Paper Mario Mafia Chapter 1 (DP1)
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@Mharman
@Casey_Risk
Why, specifically, did you decide to keep your vote on Mharman? What was it about his behavior that you did not like, aside from his initial inactivity?
63 and 64 were reads posts of mediocre quality. Not obviously bad, but hedgy (note: "hedging" as in "playing both sides of a read to avoid committing to either") enough with Casey and Skipper that I didn't feel inspired to unvote. I suppose I could have said that exactly in 68, but I didn't.

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Paper Mario Mafia Chapter 1 (DP1)
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@Mharman
So why not start with some terrible logic ("Mharman is less active than I expect")?
Do you think that's not good enough for a page 2 vote, less than an hour after I'd joined the game? I don't think it's unreasonable to read into activity, especially since you were online before then.

If I give pushback, it's OMGUS. Time to pressure for a claim, perhaps a mislynch.
This is just a guess at what I would have done, is it not? Your entire case seems to hinge on me having a master plan which you've gleaned from exactly two posts about you. Also, you should be a little more careful about slipping role information.

If I don't believe because, he doesn't need to be so subtle about such a test, or because it all seems too convenient (both of which I am alleging),
It wasn't meant to be a reaction test of any sort. Let me lay out the thought process:

1. Mharman hasn't been in thread even though I would expect him to be.
2. Therefore, I'll ping him and place a vote for activity.
3. Mharman's posts are so-so and not worth townreading.
4. Since I don't have any major scumreads, I'll maintain the status quo (having my vote on Mharman) until something changes my mind.

You made three posts from when you joined up until 68, when I said I would keep my vote on you. Can you tell me which one I should have been townreading you for?
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Paper Mario Mafia Chapter 1 (DP1)
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@Mharman
I want to say "Mharman is comically paranoid of me to a degree that Mafia wouldn't be able to fake nearly as well" and unvote. My only issue with that is...

he could be a teammate sent by Cerulean if he saw no townie was gonna do it. At the time I believed the latter.  
...Did you really believe any scum team is going to "send" Skipper to do anything? No offense to Skipper, but I don't think it would be a good idea to trust the newbie to be making a good push.

I do also think pushing me is probably a tad villagery just because I'm a difficult mislynch to swing for Mafia and there are easier targets in this game.

Responding to the full case itself next post.
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