I'll review all the mech info tmrw. I think we should establish a voting order where the towniest players vote last btw.
Albums Mafia: Track Three
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@ILikePie5
My only read point for a scum case on Austin is how quickly he switched from “I have questions for Mharman tomorrow” to “yeah I think Mharmans results were messed with.”
Feels like buddying. I can see some synergy between him and Lunatic if Lunatic is scum. Mostly because he claimed he strengthened Lunatic. However, I see he’s with Whiteflame on a lot things being said, so that there’s a a lesser but existent claim there.
Lesser but existent case
So I notice Greyparrot didn’t say anything DP2, nor was he tagged by Cerulean.
A tailor may be back on the table. I was suspicious of Greyparrot’s claim in DP1, it looking back, that doesn’t have to come from scummy motives.
But looking back*
14 hours
And 40 minutes
Day 3, Votecount 3
Approximately 11 hours and 35 minutes remain.
Approximately 11 hours and 35 minutes remain.
It's quiet. Nobody has placed any votes.
Majority is 3.
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@Lunatic
@AustinL0926
whiteflame is literally claiming 1x cop, when we already have a flipped 6x JOAT. Your telling me you don't think a cop ability exists in any of those 6 abilities, and that a 2x investigative JOAT exists along side a 6x JOAT?A cop ability could exist. But why is there a dedicated miller for a single JOAT ability that the user doesn't even know what it does?
This was a response to Luna but I got tagged, so I'm tagging him.
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@Mharman
So I notice Greyparrot didn’t say anything DP2, nor was he tagged by Cerulean.A tailor may be back on the table. I was suspicious of Greyparrot’s claim in DP1, it looking back, that doesn’t have to come from scummy motives.
The flip made clear why GP didn't speak in DP2:
If you are killed during the Night, you will not fully die until the end of the following Day. You will be unable to vote or use any Day actions, but you will be allowed to post as much as you want. You can be voted as the Day elimination in this state. Your death will not be revealed, nor will your role be flipped, until the Day ends.
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@whiteflame
Oh nvm
Certainly a weird tree stump
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@Mharman
Certainly a weird tree stump
Yeah... it's a role that doesn't make a whole lot of sense. If he had to be killed at night, fine, but the only purpose of the death not being revealed would be to introduce some uncertainty regarding the success of Earth's Doc or allow GP to fake claim BP, neither of which would have lasted any longer than it would have taken for GP to put a VTL on someone. It's doubly weird that the Tree Stump could be voted as the lynch. Never seen that before.
You know what? Fuck mechanics; fuck mechanical analysis.This game has some fuckery, and it can be in endless ways. Behavior comes first.
I’m rereading the previous DPs again. I am not going to give people free passes because of mechanics, nor am I going to incriminate them based on mechanics. Not anymore.
If you guys want me to explain how my conclusions can even be possible, I will theorize mechanics AFTER I look at behavior.
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@AustinL0926
I'm really struggling with that.I think there's exactly one scum in Luna/WF - i.e. never town v town, never paired.
I agree
The easy explanation is just that Mharman yoloed last DP and hoped the crazy mech would get him out of it, but it just feels so unlikely?
I thought about this all of yesterday while I was with the girl at some influencer’s event. My working theory is that Mhar is some sort of suicide bomber where his death is exchanged with the NK or something. Remember that he asked if anyone visited him before he said his results. You admitted that you visited him, and then he confirmed it. The yolo makes sense if he’s the suicide bomber. Alternatively, it could be an appeal to absurdity, which some people are subscribing too. Another theory is that he was fine getting to LYLO and getting lynched and letting his partner do the dirty work after
Which would leave you, but you're cleared by an investigation by at least one townie, unless Luna/WF are both scum, in which case you're town anyway.So idk. What's your read on Mharman?
Occam’s Razor says Mhar is just lying and we’re thinking of some manipulation when one doesn’t exits. Cause he can lie about Wylted visiting cause he claimed Miller, which is a non-visiting role. But for his fake role to work, he needs to be sure no one else visited him, hence the question.
Here's a thought:I notice how last DP, Cerulean went out of his way to say, "The game is not over."How could the game be over after 2 mislynches in a 7v2?Unless, it isn't a 7v2. I can imagine a third party survivor asking Cerulean if the game is over (assuming they aren't killed in the night), and Cerulean answering it there.A 6v2v1 setup would be pretty bastard, but given the fuckery that undoubtedly exists in the setup, I can imagine it being here because Cerulean clearly doesn't know what he's doing here... I think he hasn't quite grasped the rolemad game style yet, from a design standpoint.
I think this is pure speculation, and the idea of a TP typically comes from scum. If there was a TP who could joint win, they would’ve already said so imo
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@AustinL0926
I'll review all the mech info tmrw. I think we should establish a voting order where the towniest players vote last btw.
I mentioned this process. I think everyone agrees that at least for today, I’m the towniest person here. I have to make a 3.5 hour drive back home, so I have a lot to think about. When I get home, I will make a decision.
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@Cerulean
Is there a way we can get an extension till like 10pm cst?
Midway through DP1. So far, Whiteflame and Austin are rubbing me the wrong way in the retrospective analysis.
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@ILikePie5
I don't know or care about your mech theories. The whole point of speculating about a TP was to bait one into outting themselves. Yes, a TP that joint wins doesn't have to out themselves rn. But that's the thing: One that doesn't can out themselves and try to claim they do joint win. If I can expose them as someone who doesn't joint win for the exact reasoning you described, mafia will have to NK them, which ensures no TP bs.
At this point I'm down to say there isn't one because I did forget how Wylted was talking all about how the game could be over. I thought for a second you could be the such a third party with your claim. The possibility remains, but 1. Alternative explanation for that statement from Cerulean 2. If there's any third party at all, I've concluded we're screwed anyway. 3. Part of the reason I said fuck mech analysis is because I felt I was a part of the problem as well when it comes to reading too hard into mechanics. I'm not doing it anymore.
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@ILikePie5
*Yes, a TP that joint wins would've outted themselves earlier, but a TP in general doesn't have to out themselves rn
EBWOP
Well, I'm done arguing the points at this stage. I really don't understand dispensing with a basic mechanic like the existence of a Miller in the game without a known Cop, but here we are.
I'm ready to vote whenever, so if people want to set up a given order to vote in, I'm fine with whatever. I'll be around much of the day aside from a movie this afternoon.
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@whiteflame
Well, I'm done arguing the points at this stage. I really don't understand dispensing with a basic mechanic like the existence of a Miller in the game without a known Cop, but here we are.
This argument literally applies to you too brother. I get wanting to win, but the logical inconsistency here is very odd coming from you. Literally the only point you can make is that the dead 6x JOAT doesn't have the 1x cop ability which you have absolutely no way of proving, you just have to WIFOM bs a reason for them to buy it, but saying a miller can't exist for casey is a tough sell.
VTL whiteflame
Finished DP1, Pie said one small thing I didn’t like at the end but everything else about him looks townie-ish… at the very least, I have better explanations for his behavior from a town pov than I do for Austin and Whiteflame
Last reminders:
I haven't been on a single mislynch. WF may not have voted him due to wylted quickhammering himself, but he had every intention to and went above and beyond to make it clear that he would, even though it was fairly obvious the main reason to lynch wylted was purely mechanical.. It was as if he was trying overtly to justify his position so it wouldn't look scummy when he knew wylted would inevitably flip town. I mentioned from the get go that I thought the results were odd and never went the direction that mharman or wylted was lying on the other hand, because behaviorally it made 0 sense to me. I'll drop the mechanical arguments since mharman doesn't wanna focus on it, and alot of it is just guessing what the mod would or wouldn't do and what roles do or do not exist.
Lastly earth had whiteflame on his radar and was immediately killed for it. Think about it, if you are whiteflame and scum who else do you kill? Earth made it clear in at least three posts that whiteflame was his biggest suspicion, whiteflame does not want to go into LYLO with earth scum reading him.
I leave you with those two behavioral arguments, not really much else to say at this point that we haven't already hashed out.
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@Lunatic
This argument literally applies to you too brother. I get wanting to win, but the logical inconsistency here is very odd coming from you. Literally the only point you can make is that the dead 6x JOAT doesn't have the 1x cop ability which you have absolutely no way of proving, you just have to WIFOM bs a reason for them to buy it, but saying a miller can't exist for casey is a tough sell.
You keep trying to turn this point around on me, and the fact that you’ve managed to string this out as long as you have is a testament to how persuasive you are, but not how good the point is. You must be right that Casey had both a 1X Cop and a 1X Tracker, the former of which you couldn’t possibly know. Just because Casey had 6 roles does not mean that they had these two specific roles, and the notion that I somehow have to prove that Casey didn’t have them is fucking baffling.
It’s even more baffling to me that, assuming Casey did have these two roles, a hidden role (the Cop) was a basis for making a player a Miller. Again: has anyone ever heard of a single game where a hidden role on a JOAT became the entire basis for a negative utility role in that same game to exist? No one has answered this, yet Luna’s point is absolutely banking on it being true.
But since we’re doing this and I see no reason to change my mind:
VTL Lunatic
Ball’s in your court, guys.
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@Lunatic
@whiteflame
@ILikePie5
@Mharman
@AustinL0926
Is there a way we can get an extension till like 10pm cst?
I typically only accept extension requests this late in the game if there's unanimous agreement. Especially because you've had three days.
As such, everyone, please message me if you are willing to accept a 12 hour extension, until 6:40 AM Eastern Time on the 9th. You are not permitted to discuss this request and subsequent vote in thread and should not use its success or failure for deduction.
Day 3, Votecount 4
Approximately 5 hours and 5 minutes remain. An additional 12 hours will be added if the extension vote succeeds.
Whiteflame: 1 (Lunatic)
Lunatic: 1 (Whiteflame)
Majority is 3.
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@Cerulean
If people want an extension to think about this more, it’s fine by me.