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My impression at the moment is that all of these roles are very unusual. We have:
Prideful Townie
Prober
Hammerer
(all flipped)
Oracle
Arsonist
Singer
Voodoo Lady
Motivator
Bulletproof
(I'm surprised there's nothing really "Protective" here, though Prideful and Bulletproof both have a chance to survive an attack.)
The only role that doesn't really fit the mold compared to the others is Bulletproof, because it's so "normal." If I were to cast a vote based on role claim only, it would be for Mharman- and it wouldn't really surprise me if the Mafia split their votes 1-1 for on/off WyIted.
There's only about a day left, so we either need to be coming to a decision or we're going to end up with a No Lynch and, very likely, a dead Lunatic.
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@AustinL0926
When we're on evens, not really? We wouldn't lose a mislynch unless scum already had another way of killing and it would tell you with a very high likelihood who one of the Mafia members is.Because if he's scum, scum get an extra NK, which is pretty obviously bad.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
I have some thoughts on which claim is most suspicious, but I'd like for ADOL to chime in with their claim first.
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@AustinL0926
so I presume he wouldn't get any message about being motivated.
No, you're not presuming. You're going to go ask if motivating a player without a night action would give feedback or not.
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(For completion's sake, I targeted ADOL Night 1 and Mharman Night 2.)Cerulean Elva Oracle (weak) N/A N/A
Actually, I do wonder if Whiteflame's role name is partially meant to mess with my role- if I were nightkilled while I was on Whiteflame, and he got revealed as Voodoo Lady, that would be a bad look.
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Just to be clear, Pie sends failure messages even to actions that don't typically expect feedback? Is that a usual hosting decision in his games? I was under the impression that WF was softing an investigative role, but that might be my mistake.because my action failed for the second NP in a row:I’m Angela. I am the Voodoo Lady.
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I thought I'd received the "Fell for it Again" award when WyIted said he was scum right at the end there.
Anyway, we clearly need to re-assess the situation now that it is MYLO and we know for sure that the theme being assumed thus far is wrong.
No Lynch is technically an option if we need time and/or a kill for deduction, but it probably just gets Lunatic killed with no real gain.
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@Best.Korea
@DavidAZZ
Stats say that around 80% of those millionaires came from middle class families
The only source I found on this was a self-reporting survey, so I think you might want to lower your estimate. It wouldn't surprise me if some of these people were reporting as "middle-class" falsely either mistakenly or because they wanted to feel better about their achievements.
Contrary to popular belief, not all people have same abilities.
This is a self-defeating mentality. Aren't you the one who's trying everything to increase your IQ? Couldn't you apply that level of dedication to your finances, for instance? Granted, you're not everyone, but there are a lot of people who think, "I'll never have X, so why bother?", which is a mentality that leads to... never achieving X, even when it would have been within their reach.
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@whiteflame
WF, question. Do you think there's a strong reason why I should be considering you Town, and if so, what is it?
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I also thought of this angleshoot, and while it's possible that Pie could have done something a little off-the-wall, I think that ADOL's posting so far has been much more unrestrained and messy than I would expect from a newbie scum.Pie is not making ADOL scum. It is unfair, it is what it is but he's practically confirmed town
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@AustinL0926
I'm not going to shove someone I townlean into a scumlean just for the sake of making two scumreads. (Austin)
This is what "Null" or "Unsure" categories are for. Just because you're so committed to one specific scum person doesn't mean you shouldn't have other possibilities on the table.
As a Townie, I have been shot in broad daylight by a Mafia member who spent half the game making "Cerulean is scum" their entire personality, and they got away with it. Intense focus on a single person to the exclusion of considering other worlds is something I find scummy. What would you do if WyIted flipped town? I don't know because you (and Lunatic, to be fair) have been pushing so hard there and not talking about other possibilities that you could go anywhere if/when he does flip Town.
Where am I wrong on this?
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gamers have a naturally conservative tilt.
Very much depends on the specific circle.
Anyway, I would prefer an Austin or WF vote over WyIted.
I find this especially strange since Oracle is a fairly strong investigative role, the equivalent of a full rolecop that works even after someone dies, and I don't find it very compatible with cop.
I highly disagree. It's maybe a single check that only occurs if I get nightkilled and doesn't even 100% guarantee an alignment check. "Roleblocker" can go Town or Mafia, for instance.
And if you're a buffoon like me who manages to go under fire on Day 1, it becomes worthless.
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I was going to say that we technically don't lose any lynches by not voting here, but we'd probably just lose one of the two locktowns regardless, so there's not much of a point there.
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@AustinL0926
A little bit of both, really. I'm off-put by your list that has literally everyone in "Town/Town lean" besides WyIted. I would expect a Town player to construct a list like that, look at it, and realize "Okay, I have too many Town, I need to set the bar higher," but that train of thought just... isn't there. I know you said that it's ordered within tiers, but I still don't get how you ended up with only one person below "Town lean" when you know there's probably 2 Mafia.do you think I'm actively pushing for a mislynch by voting Wylted? Or are you just bothered by my narrow focus, and why?
This is kind of a nitpick, but sometimes that's what catches the Mafia.
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@AustinL0926
My worry here is that you're focusing on Wylted's day actions to the exclusion of his night actions.
WyIted's night action makes perfect sense from a town POV if you think he either A) wanted to spite Lunatic by vanillizing him or B) wanted to have the go-ahead to hard push Lunatic/the knowledge that the fight was Town v. Town. Emotional play does not a Mafia make.
it's actually a decent play for Wylted to allow a no lynch [as Mafia]
Sure, but the way he went about it screamed uncertainty and hesitancy, which, as I said, I recognize from my own Town play. Am I a different person from WyIted? Sure. But I have a hard time believing this specific series of events and WyIted still ending up as Mafia when no other strong Investigative roles have come forward.
That's my primary hangup with voting WyIted. I can't recall a single game on this site where the Town didn't have at least one reasonably strong Investigative of some sort, even when it was hindered by some other Mafia ability. So either WyIted is that role, someone is silent about theirs, or there isn't one. I find option one most likely.
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Sorry for being so MIA yesterday. I acknowledge WF's point about the willingness to no lynch Day 1, though I'm still not particularly willing to put a full-on townread there.
Unvote
I would like at least one claim between Mharman and Austin. Them plus WF is my current POE.
Also, tbh, almost everyone besides Lunatic and Wylted are flying under the radar.
I'm a bit uneasy about how Austin has been not up to much today besides echoing support on the WyIted lynch. Why, exactly, was he mostly townread yesterday?
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@Lunatic
Do you just reveal an affiliation upon death? I missed where you had claimed
No, just the role name. So for myself, it would be something like "Cerulean is the Oracle."
You understand why I called it weak now, yes? Its use is already limited if I get nightkilled and now that I've claimed it, that will never happen.
Very strong behavioral analysis skills normally that are going to waste this game.
This was why I was so uneasy about Lunatic on Day 1. A lot of his posts were talking about claim viability rather than anything behavioral.
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@Lunatic
Actually, one more thing- Lunatic, is there a particular reason why you believe the theme (Mafia characters are dragons) I suggested isn't viable? I feel like we glossed over that- or did I miss your response?
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@whiteflame
@ADreamOfLiberty
Without night actions and lynch results it's all just speculation. I suspect that DP1 is more or less a random lynch generator unless someone confesses by accident.
That's where behavioral reading comes into play, yes. With... varying results.
Before I go to bed for the night, I might as well do this.
VTL Whiteflame
Can anyone tell me why he's Town and I'm wrong? I read something like this:
But I don't see much action to move past it. After that post, there were a couple of others where Whiteflame expressed dissatisfaction about eliminating me, but didn't really seem inclined to put any real effort into moving the needle. No real alternatives offered.
I'm trying not to retroactively OMGUS here, but I'm uneasy about it. There were still 6 hours left at the time of Post 200, so WF could have tried to go elsewhere, but didn't. Why? Can someone sanity check if I'm being reasonable about this?
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@ADreamOfLiberty
No offense, but do you have a frame of reference for what's "too complicated"? We often have talk here of how standard Cops are a little overpowered, so there usually have to be mechanics in place that make them weaker in some way (framing, lawyering, redirecting). The vanillization here would be a way to make the Cop role weaker while still aligning with the character, as far as I can tell.Right now I am inclined to think that this modified vanillaizer town, but villain themed character, is too complicated to believe.
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I do have a player targeted with my ability, but I don't see any point to saying it aloud, so I won't.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
That true? People have been revealing characters and roles, it would be strange not to allow the exact wording.
I'm currently in a state of believing WyIted, to be honest. It makes sense to have one useful investigative and one much weaker one, and I still find WyIted's behavior extremely difficult to believe as being Mafia. I find that it resembles my own wavering on a lynch when it just "feels off" at an EOD.
...And if I believe WyIted, it makes sense to believe Lunatic as Town.
And I don't think ADOL's is a thought process a newbie Mafia would be able to fake. Some of these are questions that would typically end up in scum chat.
And I still don't really think Earth's role + character combo are something Mafia would go for in a fake claim. There are much more likely things that are less likely to get an accidental "oops, maybe we should policy this just in case" vote.
Which only leaves me with Mharman, Austin, and WF.
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You can see that from the opening prologue when he kills a couple of Urgals just for failing him.
Classic.
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@Lunatic
There was a point in time where he could have just waited for Whiteflame to hammer me, if I recall correctly. But he specifically unvoted when it was 3/5 to make it 2/5.
Granted, there is a possible Mafia incentive in that a No Lynch leaves me as a potential lynch option down the line. So it's not particularly clearing.
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@WyIted
WyIted, I want to know two things at the moment- first, is your ability specifically worded that you cannot target the same person twice? Second, what is your exact reason for vanillizing Lunatic?
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@ADreamOfLiberty
Did Wylted know you primed him? He might call it self-defense if he did.
I suspect it's more likely just "Lunatic is hard accusing me in a bad way, he's scum" if WyIted is Town.
That being said, it is overtly suspicious to not target the safer option, Earth.
All the mafia know who each other are right?
Most likely, yes. At least one mechanic of the game (the ability to ask about roles/characters) suggests that they share a chat.
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@Lunatic
In that case, who's the other character that you think fits with Galbatorix? Durza?
My belief was that the Mafia characters were going to be dragons. It would be a clear split that wouldn't be as simple as "Good vs. Evil," and nobody has claimed a dragon as a character yet.
Murtagh literally had no choice but to serve him, and by the end of the series he breaks free from Galbatorix's service.
Okay, but I'm reading the flavor in Casey's role and seeing:
When you first encounter Eragon, you are quick to assert that you want nothing to do with the Varden. (The good guys) You value your autonomy above all else, unwilling to accept help, even when you know you need it. Your pride is evident when you refuse to join the Varden outright, even after seeing the evil that Galbatorix has wrought. But as the events unfold, your pride becomes both a strength and a trap.
This doesn't seem like an unambiguously "good" character even if he does become "good" by the end of the series.
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@WyIted
It's a waste of a day if we No Lynch and I don't want to repeat the same day tomorrow.
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Okay, well, we have 10 minutes left, so a decision needs to happen. I would vote Lunatic > WyIted > Me > No Lynch.
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Wait, if you put him at l-1 wasn't earth supposed to be the auto hammer? Why is no one questioning this?
I believe it was 3/5 at that point, which is "effectively" L-1.
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Because it would mean WyIted was either hoping we were feeling nice OR did absolutely zero research and just full claimed thinking it would be fine. Doesn't seem like too reliable of a strategy in any case.
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@Lunatic
Hold the f up why is everyone accepting wylted claim so easily? I get villains CAN exist in as town but he gave the absolute weakest justification I've ever seen for it, I feel like people are accepting it way too easily.
Well, it depends. Do you think WyIted is that stupid and/or ballsy to hard claim a villain?
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Gun to head team is Lunatic/WF
ADOL needs to be pressured to play the game tomorrow
Earth, WyIted, Mharman probably fine
Austin, Casey outer POE
Good luck, try not to implode next Day Phase.
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Although to be fair, at this point, I was never going to be in a position to get nightkilled anyway.
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@WyIted
Right. That.
I'm Oracle, but a very weak version of it, at least from my point of view. If I get nightkilled, the role of my last chosen target gets revealed. Not even the alignment, just the role.
By saying this out loud, I will never be nightkilled and the ability is therefore worthless.
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@Mharman
I really don’t think scum has an easy way of guessing that.
We're talking about a role with a hostile effect that wipes people's abilities. It's not unreasonable to think it would belong to an "evil" character.
My point isn't that this specific aspect must make Lunatic scum. My point is that it doesn't make him Town and there's not much of a reason to townread him otherwise.
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@ILikePie5
Unless someone can give me a good reason not to do so,
How about the fact that three of you consecutively expressed concerns about chopping me? At least give me some time to reread and write a legacy.
Pie, how much time do we have?
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@Mharman
Let's say you're Mafia-Lunatic and the theme split isn't "Good vs. Evil." If you think that a player has a character that would usually be considered "Evil," doesn't it make sense to try and force it out in a way that would put suspicion on that player?
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@Mharman
@WyIted
I am not going after lunatic, giving him a hard time and haven't put him in my town pool. How would it be town vs town. It's just lunatic vs me. I have not come at him at all
It was because I mentioned that I don't like Lunatic because of the way he pushed on you- I was sort-of implying a Mafia v. Town relationship, that's why it was mentioned.
Mhar, what is it that makes you think Lunatic is Town? It can't just be the double check on WyIted, because Mafia-Lunatic also has a strong incentive to do that, yes?
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@Mharman
I wholeheartedly disagree. There are many aspects of any character that can be interpreted as different roles, and mods have been known to stretch justifications to make a character fit a certain role.
Agree to disagree? With a series like this where there's only maybe two dozen or so possible characters and even fewer that make sense with a theme split, you can get a reasonable sense of at least the vicinity of what might be in play.
And besides that, speculation isn't just about being right, this sort of thing can also be used for social reads, yes?
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I think I've ended up with a pool of Austin, Casey, WF, Lunatic that I need to look through more closely. This is mostly off memory, though.
ADOL is full null, but if I were to angleshoot, I would suspect that Mafia would be pinged and replaced with more urgency. Either way, this slot is like an emergency button if we really can't decide.
Earth's role is pretty clearly real from how unique it is- that wouldn't cross my mind as a fake claim in a million years. As for whether it's Town or Mafia, I would call it Town both because I find it difficult to determine how the character would fit a Mafia team theme and because it's a role that's very likely to get policied and can't really be avoided.
I think Mharman's posting style this game has an energy that sort of resembles the Paper Mario game, so my impression there is Town.
WyIted is fine in my book (at least for now) just because I think Lunatic is super sketchy and was clearly trying to push there. If Town, I'm fairly confident on what the theme split actually is.
VTL Lunatic
Let's shake things up, hm? I don't like the way he behaved around WyIted and it makes sense if the split really isn't as simple as "Good vs. Evil."
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@Mharman
That might be fair, but why didn’t you say that in Post #7?I thought it was self-evident. Knowing and applying your own role doesn't help speculation as much as the possible characters do.
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@AustinL0926
Since he's been at L - 1, Cerulean has posted 4 times:-Posted a wall of self-defense-Explained why he isn't claiming-Talked about mechanics/characters twice
Yesterday was a holiday and I'm at work right now, so you'll have to forgive my lack of full attention. But I've not got much to do at this exact moment, so I'll try and consolidate my thoughts.
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@WyIted
insinuating scum would never fake claim their character and get CCed is silly.
When scum have access to checks on if characters/roles exist, it seems unlikely. Especially for the early game.
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So either WyIted is Town and the theme split is something other than "Good vs. Evil" or WyIted is Mafia and hoping we just assume that. It would be a ballsy play.
I assume we're leaving the ADOL slot alone for now in the hopes that they get subbed out... or start existing?
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I don't see much benefit to withholding at this point.
The benefit is that it doesn't become completely worthless. It's something that Mafia can easily manipulate if they know what's going on.
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@Lunatic
@Mharman
@AustinL0926
@WyIted
I know its WIFOM, but I would do that as scum too if I was going into a theme I wasn't all too familiar with and didn't want to risk getting CC'ed by anyone. (Lunatic)
Except Mafia has access to checking roles/characters. I wouldn't be surprised if at least one major character was left open.
Since we’d obviously be basing our speculations on our abilities, we’d be unknowingly outing our roles. (Mharman)
My intention was that speculation would be based on characters that might be in play. For instance, Galbatorix, the main villain of the series, doesn't really show up until the later books- so that role could be something that grows stronger over time or activates in late-game.
which feels a lot different than how I remember him as town, e.g. in Mayday Mafia. (Austin)
I was Mafia in Mayday Mafia. There's admittedly not much of my meta for you to go off, here, since I haven't been Town in a few games.
This statement about it being a side character. I haven't read the books and don't even know if mine would be considered side or a main, but isn't the whole issue literally just opinion. (WyIted)
I very specifically presented a list from the wiki, then later responded to a list posted by Lunatic, confirming that my character is not on either.
When is later? (WyIted, re: Secret Hitler)
I talked more about this in Post 20. It was speculation that Mafia might not have full information about each other due to some aspects of characters that might be Mafia-aligned. Though, we ended up deciding that it's unlikely, I believe.
My character is Elva. My role is a weak investigative ability that I will not elaborate further on today.
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Cerulean (3/5) - Lunatic, Mharman, Austin
That... is a little surprising. Give me a few minutes to read back. Still have some time, thankfully.
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