Ace Attorney Mafia DP2

Author: Casey_Risk
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#241
whiteflame
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@Savant
I mean agreeing that POE is Austin, you, and Earth. Not just saying that you are in it. But maybe I should have been more clear.
Yeah, that's not how I interpreted that. And no, I don't agree with that. As I said before, you're in my PoE as well, though I think it's more likely to be Austin/Earth. Considering Luna still has both you and Mharman in his PoE, that view is not unique to me or the people in your PoE.

#242
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@Lunatic
It makes 0 sense for scum austin to not just fake dreamer results coming into dp2.
If Austin is town, we'd expect scum to interfere with his results. So as scum, he'd look suspicious if he had them.
#243
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Behavioral town reads in order from most town to most scum

Town
Savant
Whiteflame
Austin
Earth
WyIted
Mharman
Scum

Notes: Austin was highest dp1, his activity this dp has placed him lower, and wylted got placed way lower because of the Owen lynch combined with lack of excitement this game (feels different than when he was town in CoC mafia). Both of these could be because of IRL stuff so I take them with a grain of salt. Mharman feels a bit over defensive to me combined with almost leaving the game after only I had FOS'ed him in dp1, so I placed him pretty low too, but that doesn't neccesarily mean I don't buy that he is doctor. I am still conflicted on that. I am taking everyone's roles and actions into account as well for my main reads. I just thought it was important to take roles out of the equation and put a list together ranked purely on how I see people behaviorally. 
#244
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@Savant
If Austin is town, we'd expect scum to interfere with his results. So as scum, he'd look suspicious if he had them.
I had hard hinted towards being an investigator, so it surprises me they would find a dreamer more of a threat, considering a dreamer isn't hard results and allows them wiggle room with mislynch oppertunity. And with a justice I imagine mafia have some counter to that, like a lawyer or framer. 
#245
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@Lunatic
I'd be fine lynching Earth, but I don't know if you could get others to agree to it.
#246
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@Lunatic
it surprises me they would find a dreamer more of a threat
Probably because Austin is lying
#247
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@Savant
I'd be fine lynching Earth, but I don't know if you could get others to agree to it.
This feels wierd to me. I don't see earth as that scummy. He is in the POE sure, but he at least used his action correctly last night. Idk he hasn't done anything majorly scummy to me this day phase either. 
#248
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@Lunatic
Earth and Austin are the only two in my POE we can lynch. I'm not about to go after the only town protective role.
#249
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@Savant
it surprises me they would find a dreamer more of a threat
Probably because Austin is lying

Okay if I am scum and gonna lie and I am austin here are the two things we are considering:

I lie about my dreamer results; potentially get 1-2 mislynches out of it before people call my bs and lynch me. Only risk to this is if he thinks people wouldn't buy the results, but a lot of people were town reading austin by EOD of DP1. 

or

I lie about being roleblocked or visited and just hope to wifom my way out of having results after already drawing major attention to myself DP1.

I know austin has the power to WIFOM like no other, but even that feels like a stretch to me that he would choose option 2 over option one. It's not out of the question though I'll give you that. 
#250
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@Savant
Earth and Austin are the only two in my POE we can lynch. I'm not about to go after the only town protective role.
For me I think it's gonna be between mharman and austin. I could be potentially swayed to Wylted too but I don't think that is a shared read I have with anyone. But he lost a lot of town equity by that Owen mislynch and because of his activity this phase. It could be he actually really is busy, or it could also be that he expects town to mislynch between themselves and feels he can more or less coast this phase. It seems like he has the ability to be on to vote, but perhaps could be feigning lack of interest. IDK. 


#251
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Anyway, I have a moment to play this game. I feel a little bad about lynching Austin, although my reasons are a little WIFOM and gut reads. Mhar was mostly absent DP1 and he's going after Austin this DP. Savant does seem pretty shocked his Magistrate was redirected, so maybe there really is some kind of role in the game. Stream of consciousness my POE is Mhar, WF, Savant. More or less that order. Mhar is my pick. Savant might beat out WF for scum since I don't really like the Athena claim. 
#252
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@Lunatic
I don't think mhar-mhar will be the lynch, so you may have to go with us on Austin.
#253
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@Casey_Risk
Vote count?
#254
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@Earth
@Lunatic
@whiteflame
@Mharman
@WyIted
Stream of consciousness my POE is Mhar, WF, Savant.
Looks like Austin and Earth decided to try and turn town against Mharman and I.
#255
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@Savant
I don't think mhar-mhar will be the lynch, so you may have to go with us on Austin.
Really? I got a different vibe, I thought it was mainly just you and mharman on team austin. 

Pretty sure earth, whiteflame and austin are team mhar mhar, and I am still undecided. 
#256
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@Savant
What? Who else am I supposed to sus? Get over yourself man.
#257
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@Savant
Earth has been town reading austin from the get go
#258
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I wouldn't be surprised if we basically have this game solved. New mods have a tendency to put too many confirmable roles, and scum only wins those games if the town starts overthinking.
#259
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@Lunatic
Earth has been town reading austin from the get go
Doesn't surprise me.
#260
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@Savant
I wouldn't be surprised if we basically have this game solved. New mods have a tendency to put too many confirmable roles, and scum only wins those games if the town starts overthinking.
Could be. I am just gonna be very shocked if a game about lawyers doesn't even have a lawyer/framer in it
#261
Mharman
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@Lunatic
It's nice to hear that you respect my play more than I do.

I think my scum play is far stronger than my town play. I don't think my town play is as bad as I was saying DP2 of last game, but I don't think I play town all that well. I only think I am now starting to learn to read others, at least affiliation wise. I would call DP1 and NP1 of this game a learning experience.

Reading into and using PRs for me is easy, I've done that plenty as scum. You were witness to it in MMA Mafia iirc (there was another game I won as scum that you hosted shortly after... was it that one? idk).

But if I'm so good at reading PRs (and am as good of a player as you respect), how would I miss that you were an investigator if I were scum? If I was scum and looking at the game, I would have killed you in the night. Remember: I am claimed doctor. This means that if I were fake-claiming, the role would have had to have been confirmed not in the game by Casey. I wouldn't fear you'd get doctored, nor would I fear something like a jailkeeper since a jailkeeper might be hesitant to rb you if they were reading you as investigative. I wouldn't fear any bodyguard either, since I could target you and get the bodyguard, while hoping for the off chance the bodyguard doesn't protect you. Well, I would be telling my teammate to do the NK since I visited myself, but you get the point.

HOLD ON TORNADO WARNING AS IM TYPING THIS
#262
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It's late and I have to get up early to take my wife to the airport, so I'm going to call it and I'll engage with some of these variations on PoE tomorrow, hopefully after Austin has some free time to post. I have thoughts, but none of them are going to be coherent right now anyway.
#263
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@Mharman
HOLD ON TORNADO WARNING AS IM TYPING THIS
Um... holy shit. Stay safe dude.

#264
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@whiteflame
Ok I moved from my pc to the basement I’m on my phone….

I probably shouldn’t be typing in a mafia game right now…

I’ll return when the storm clears
#265
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@Mharman
But if I'm so good at reading PRs (and am as good of a player as you respect), how would I miss that you were an investigator if I were scum? If I was scum and looking at the game, I would have killed you in the night. Remember: I am claimed doctor. This means that if I were fake-claiming, the role would have had to have been confirmed not in the game by Casey. I wouldn't fear you'd get doctored, nor would I fear something like a jailkeeper since a jailkeeper might be hesitant to rb you if they were reading you as investigative. I wouldn't fear any bodyguard either, since I could target you and get the bodyguard, while hoping for the off chance the bodyguard doesn't protect you. Well, I would be telling my teammate to do the NK since I visited myself, but you get the point.
I figured I would be killed or roleblocked. Earth strengthening make sense as to why my action went through. And it's part of the reason I switched from scumming him to towning him.

HOLD ON TORNADO WARNING AS IM TYPING THIS
In florida we used to throw parties when this happened lol. But yeah stay safe and such
Topic's author
#266
Casey_Risk
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@Earth
@Mharman
Same as before, I'm pretty sure. Also stay safe Mharman! 

Votes:

Austin (2/4): Mharman, Savant
Mharman (1/4): Austin

#267
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Ok so I’m the basement with my whole family and pets… I think I should be fine to post on my phone from the basement…
 
I mean, the rest of my family does seem pretty chill about it. Except my little sister
#268
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@Lunatic
@whiteflame
@Casey_Risk
I think I’ll be fine. Thought I would have to be done for the night, but now that the whole family + pets are in the basement, I should be good to post.

The plan is to chill in the basement and if the town sirens start blaring, we all hunker in the basement closet.
#269
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@Lunatic
look, the point is the only way I could miss your PR is if I was town, and focusing less hard on reading other’s PRs because I was tunneled on the idea that Austin was the only investigator in the game because I believed him at the time.


Which is the case.
#270
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@Mharman
look, the point is the only way I could miss your PR is if I was town, and focusing less hard on reading other’s PRs because I was tunneled on the idea that Austin was the only investigator in the game because I believed him at the time.


Which is the case.

I'll take this wifom into account for sure. Really the case against austin is just as much wifom though. You have the luxury of being online atm whereas he does not so I will patiently wait for austin to speak on things.