Ace Attorney Mafia DP2

Author: Casey_Risk
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#271
Mharman
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Tornado warning is over, but I am tired and wondering if I had a confirmation bias of my own about Earth

I’m guessing that the scum team thought Joebob was the doctor… but in which case, why not kill Earth? 

Unless they bought Earth’s claim and decided they didn’t know if the doctor was going to protect Lunatic or Earth… doesn’t have to be a doctor that they were reading I suppose but that’s not super relevant 

Of course of all of this goes out the window if Earth is scum and fake claiming strengthener

I can see both Casey including and leaving out a strengthener

I partially like the justification since Godot does test Phoenix Wright to see if he’s worthy, and battles him in court as a prosecutor to make him a better defense attorney. The coffee part is a little weird.

Earth’s behavior is off to me though. The parroting of Austin, the hanging back, the sudden and stubborn defense of Austin

And then there’s Whiteflame. I’m was liking him more but it’s not super clear.

Consider this: Joebob was also a great mislynch target for today given his hard push on Owen. If scum was willing to kill him, they may have been content to eliminate him from POE, and therefore the scum team is probably had at least one person who felt they’d be easily townread coming into this DP. Which means that redirecting Savants magistrate onto Whiteflame is a great way of ensuring both scum make it to DP3.

The people I can see being confident they’d be town read coming into today are Austin, Lunatic, and Wylted. Of those I town read Lunatic and Wylted. This road leads to Austin,  but it implicates Whiteflame as the teammate.

Alternatively, the scum team could’ve asked for cop before the game started and been told it’s not here. At which point they’d be less scared of Lunatic. But why not fake claim cop in this case? It’s a decent claim given that no investigative role would cc DP1, but that doesn’t stop future CCs. Claiming a weaker investigative role would be an option for them if they knew cop wasn’t in the game but figured there’d still be some weaker investigative roles in game… this road also leads to Austin. It’s also not mutually exclusive to any path of logic that might be taken to conclude that Earth or WHiteflame is the teammate

I still think Austin is guaranteed scum. But the debate of the teammate still isn’t over.
#272
AustinL0926
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Good evening buckaroos. Doing well, just tired.

A miscellaneous list of points I'm liveposting:

1. Savant and Mharman have strong partner equity. They've been voting and agreeing in unison all day phase.

2. As scum, the status quo (i.e. the alleged POE of me/whiteflame/Earth) benefits them, which is why Savant is being uncharacteristically quiet and Mharman is doing everything he can to maintain that status quo.

3. Mharman's entire case is built on setup speculation. This isn't a genuine way of scumhunting, because unless there's something obviously egregious (e.g. a straight CC), it all comes down to a guess on what the mod intended.

4. I don't care if I get hammered today if you get Mharman and Savant afterward. They're not accepting this, and continually trying to deflect to the alleged POE.

5. Mharman's logic regarding Savant makes no sense. He says that because Savant told the truth in a setup where scum can easily fakeclaim, it makes him town. This ignores that Savant's role is confirmable, which on this site's meta gets you townread for ?? reasons.

6. Mharman's claim of Doc is the exact same that Savant did in Mahabharata. Notice how he's pushing the exact "I'm un-CC'd so I HAVE to be town" angle.

7. A redirector makes no sense in this setup. Almost all the other roles are relatively simple or thematic, redirector is a clear outlier in terms of complexity.

8. Also makes no sense for scum to use their redirector on Savant. It makes far more sense for Savant to simply be lying.

9. Justice/Dreamer make perfect sense, it's not overpowered at all if scum has a lawyer/framer - e.g. if Justice gets "same alignment" on two players, one of whom flips town and the other is lawyered, then town is fucking screwed. I would bet 10 bucks that scum have a lawyer/framer btw.

10. Mharman had no good reason for protecting himself n1 when he was in poe, it's a retroactive justification for probably lawyering himself.

11. Savant/Mharman RVS voted each other. Savant goes ballistic over votes on him (you've seen it before), and he also RVS voted me when we were scum together.

12. Despite allegedly "sussing" Savant, Mharman did NOTHING to push Savant D1.

13. Savant's progression is implausible. He said I was a townread, then voted me based on alleged mechanical reasons that make no sense.

14. Speaking of that, Mharman's case on me makes zero sense as I mentioned earlier

15. Also Savant demonstrated either a bad-faith push or a failure of basic probability when he said the chances I choose three town aligned players d1 is less than 50% (which has nothing to do with the chance of my alignment)

16. Savant and Mharman have zero genuine interactions. Read the day.




#273
Mharman
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You know, I wonder if we may not have caught Austin if it weren’t for zjoebob’s flip

#274
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@Mharman
Faking confidence is not as effective as you think it is.
#275
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Also, if we're talking character analysis here, Maya/Mia/Pearl are all Fey members and I fail to see a themesplit that would only include Maya but not the others.
#276
Mharman
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@AustinL0926
Lmao Im as tired as you and will crush your bs tomorrow. For now just sit tight, before you self destruct again like last night LOL
#277
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Lol at Mharman's mental gymnastics. Apparently I decided to immediately fakeclaim Dreamer, draw attention to myself D1, resolve several slots as town, retract to avoid a mislynch even though I easily could have chained two if I was scum, then fake having no results N1 even though I was widely townread and could easily have gotten another mislynch off fake results, all as part of an scum gambit to... put myself in POE and locktown several players.
#278
Lunatic
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Whats funny is I can see one of austin or mharman being scum, but I absolutely dis-agree with both of them on who the scum partner of each would be lol. 
#279
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@Lunatic
Mharman's actions are dripping with scum agenda. I've been hard townsiding all game. Lynch that scumbag.
#280
Lunatic
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Maybe both of you are town and its like whiteflame/Wylted
#281
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@Lunatic
I have that as a tinfoil theory. If that's the case then town is irreparably screwed tbh
#282
Lunatic
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@Mharman
@AustinL0926
While chances are that one of you two could be scum, consider a world where your both town hypothetically speaking. Just indulge me for a sec. What other scum teams can you picture and why?
#283
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@Lunatic
Savant + whiteflame probably, maybe Savant + Wylted

don't  rly see it tho
#284
Lunatic
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@AustinL0926
don't  rly see it tho
Why not
#285
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@AustinL0926
Mharman's actions are dripping with scum agenda. I've been hard townsiding all game. Lynch that scumbag.

Just wanted to check one last time. Getting angry and aggressive like last night’s self destruct, are we? 

Ya know, in that post of 15 or so points you made, you scumsplipped by contradicting yourself and you don’t even realize it

This will be light work

See you tomorrow 

#286
Lunatic
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If both of you are town and death tunneling each other for the sake of pride, the whole town suffers for it. I advise you think of different scenarios and scum teams here, because you could both be easily be town here.
#287
Lunatic
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vtl Wylted
#288
WyIted
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@Lunatic
Do you need help catching up? I can give you a run down of the day phase. 

Yes
#289
WyIted
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Okay I Wil just return to my DP1 reads

VTL austin
#290
Lunatic
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@WyIted
okay bullet points

  • I tracked mharman, saw him visit himself
  • Mharman claim Wright and claimed to doctor himself
  • savant and mharman believe austin is in the POE now
  • earth thinks austin is town, whiteflame seems to be leaning that way as well
  • Austin thinks mharman is scum and is willing to 1 v 1 him
  • I am undecided still
More or less where everyone is at. You can find their cases for specific arguments, though most everything is WIFOM right now. I personally think its possible that mharman can be a lawyer/framer with his character and am not as quick as others to town read him simply because he is the main character. The only problem is there are no other claimed protective roles so if mharman isn't doctor than town have no protection. Balance wise I am okay with that, but mod psyche wise I wonder if casey would not use a protective role. 



#291
WyIted
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@Lunatic
Did mharman claim doctor before you revealed you tracked him to himself or after?
#292
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@Mharman
Why did you doc yourself. 
#293
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@Lunatic
What person being alive at MYLO is going to be the biggest problem for town? 
#294
Lunatic
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@WyIted
Did mharman claim doctor before you revealed you tracked him to himself or after?
He claimed it after I claimed to track himself. I was trying to get him to out his character and role without revealing my info but he was holding it back and demanded a trade for my character before he would even character claim, so eventually I got tired of waiting and just exposed the results. I did mention that I figured he could be doctor when I revealed so part of me wonder if he chose that claim knowing I would buy into it, but then he would have had to have known there was no other doctor somehow. The justification for him being doctor is that "Wright saves people" even though there are a ton of medical characters in the show. So on paper it screams sus. The only thing holding me back is that casey is a new mod so "saving" people could be used loosely in this case. 

But Wright also fits in very well with a lawyer role, which I assume there is a laywer or framer if there is a justice. Justice is insanely OP.
#295
Lunatic
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@WyIted
Why did you doc yourself. 

This was his answer as to why he docced himself:


I knew the scum team would be looking for other PRs, at which point I believed I was going to be the target. Thankfully, Casey, despite being very secretive at the time, did say I could protect myself, so I did that believing the scum team would find my breadcrumbs.
#296
Lunatic
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@WyIted
What person being alive at MYLO is going to be the biggest problem for town? 
Every person is equally a problem at mylo I guess. Maybe savant because he tends to stick to his guns very heavily, but I still townread him so I am not going to advocate his lynch. Mharman and austin seem locked into the death tunnel 1 v 1 so maybe getting rid of one of them would be best. I hate to admit bias but I am slightly leaning mharman as the scum if we are lynching out of the two, or potentially both town, and the remaining scum being between you earth and whiteflame. Simply because a doctor not existing in the game would be a bit crazy. But its hard to say, 
#297
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@Lunatic
I knew the scum team would be looking for other PRs, at which point I believed I was going to be the target. Thankfully, Casey, despite being very secretive at the time, did say I could protect myself, so I did that believing the scum team would find my breadcrumbs.
He was in everyone's POE so it didn't make much sense to protect himself. I wonder if there is an ego component 

Every person is equally a problem at mylo I guess. Maybe savant because he tends to stick to his guns very heavily,

I was thinking more in line as to who is most likely to get mislynched if they turn out to be town, because mislynching them now would be better than at MYLO. 
#298
Lunatic
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@WyIted
Every person is equally a problem at mylo I guess. Maybe savant because he tends to stick to his guns very heavily,

I was thinking more in line as to who is most likely to get mislynched if they turn out to be town, because mislynching them now would be better than at MYLO. 

I feel like your leading me into an austin answer here lol. I don't wanna consider that argument, because we can potentially have more results going into dp3 if night actions play out well. Unfortunately the only person I can ask protection from is mharman, and I kind of suspect him so its an issue. 
#299
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@Lunatic
The justification for him being doctor is that "Wright saves people" even though there are a ton of medical characters in the show. So on paper it screams sus. The only thing holding me back is that casey is a new mod so "saving" people could be used loosely in this case. 

But Wright also fits in very well with a lawyer role, which I assume there is a laywer or framer if there is a justice.
Ok, now I think I understand the case against Mharman a bit better. Still though, we have 1 protective role claim and like 2 confirmed investigative roles that aren't Austin. It also makes sense for Casey to put Phoenix Wright in the game simply because he's the MC and maybe that's why the doctor role got him as a justification. Whatever the theme split is, I think Wright is more likely to be on the town side.

And that's not even analyzing behavior. Austin lying and making opportunistic accusations might not automatically make him scum, but I don't see them making him more likely town either. Mharman makes a bit more sense, though. I can see doctor self-healing, because they know they have the most important (or one of the most important) role(s).

All of this is to say that Austin comes across to me as more suspicious than Mharman, and I think you are tunneling based too much on your assumption of what Austin's playstyle is. And where you do sus Austin, I think it's for the wrong reasons.
#300
Lunatic
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@Savant
I may be the only remaining deciding factor to even get mharman lynched period. If we lynch Austin and he’s town, you guys will never lynch mharman because of the doctor claim. I get killed tonight then you guys just mislynch obvious town people the rest of the game. So I don’t think I have a choice but to try and get mharman lynched today while there is a chance to. And if he’s town I know you guys will kill Austin anyways in my absence and I’ll be able to do nothing about it cuz ima be dead