Ace Attorney Mafia DP2

Dude don't tunnel like this. This is the same thing you would criticize me for doing.

You know it’s true

We can't afford to waste a lynch either. What if both mharman and Austin are innocent?

There’s not a chance in hell you lynch mharman if Austin is town

If it is, that means you should revaluate your read on mharman.

Let's lynch Austin, and have maharman protect you. If he fails, we can lynch him. I doubt redirector is more than 1x.

Town doesn’t give a shit*

Activity feels atrocious for still having 7 people 

Austin (3/4): Mharman, Savant, WyIted 

Mharman (2/4): Austin, Lunatic 

Up to you guys to decide. I’m leaving my vote and going to bed.

Glad to hear the storm didn't end up being a substantial concern for you. I moved to Tennessee a few years back and about a year after a devastating tornado touched down in the city we moved to, so it's something that always has me somewhat concerned.

Apologies for the lack of activity this morning. I'd like to type up my thoughts about the decision between Mharman and Austin, but I'll need to catch up a bit first. Should be able to detail my thoughts over lunch. We've got until tomorrow before the DP ends, so at least we're not running out of time, but I think we're close to a decision on this one.

Mhar is in my POE and him and Austin has been at each other's throats all game. I'm convinced that one must be scum.

The way I see it, both cases are pretty fraught, but there is one I don't like more. I'll give my thoughts and wait to get some responses before I make my decision.

For Mharman, the main points in his favor are the Doctor and Phoenix Wright claims. The MC of the show is likely to be in the game and I think it's distinctly unlikely that Mharman as scum would ask about whether Phoenix Wright is in the game. It would be incredibly ballsy and pay off big time if he was told that Phoenix wasn't in the game, but it would also mean sacrificing an opportunity to ask about a bevy of other likely characters in this game for the off-chance that Casey just left him out of it. I could see Pie doing that, so if this game was just Pie's to manage, I'd be more willing to sus this claim. The Doctor role also sets him apart, since he's the only claimed protective role. I'm surprised no one has asked for my role all this time, though I've certainly said what it's not, and it is definitely not protective. I'm a bit less inclined after a night's sleep to think that there must necessarily be a protective role, but if there's only one, the Doc makes the most sense. Aside from these, I think his analysis at least has come off as very townie. Maybe it's just that he's providing these long analysis posts like I do, which admittedly have come after some delay at times (particularly on his claim), but I just don't think scum Mharman would open the door for his potential lynch just to write out a long post in his defense.

As for the problems with Mharman, most of those have already been mentioned: self-targeting when he was unlikely to be the NK target (I agree that there is likely a Lawyer in the game, which would also match that action, but that's both a bit of modpsych and WIFOM) and claiming Doc only after Luna had already opened the door for the claim (he explicitly said Doc could explain it in his own reveal post before Mharman posted his role and night action) in particular stand out. What also stands out is that he was the last (beyond me anyway) to reveal his role. He was second to last (again, before me) to reveal his character. His risk in claiming Phoenix Wright and the Doc was exceedingly low by that point. Just thinking back on the Mahabharata game, I had asked about a different character (who proved to be in the game) than the one I eventually claimed because I saw my opportunity to claim a more central character when everyone else already claimed theirs. So as far as risk goes, I don't think Mharman had much, and Savant at least was obviously prepared for me to CC his protective role and defend him anyway. So as far as risk goes and opportunism, I can see the case for Mharman.

For Austin, I've already detailed my reasoning elsewhere, but I'll summarize. There are a lot of Feys in the game, including at least one that we know is town and one (WyIted) that we all solidly townread. Considering the CC battle that ensued between WyIted and Austin early in DP1, either Austin asked about this specific character with the Dreamer role in mind for her (I don't think he'd be willing to push back that hard on WyIted's misclaim if he was just guessing she wasn't in the game), which would be incredibly lucky, or he actually just has Maya Fey as his character. I'm more inclined to believe the latter, especially as he was saying he actively townread WyIted in the middle of that. I think he's also had a lot of opportunities to use his claim to secure a lynch or at least exclude his scum partner from a lynch. He had the Day Dreamer gambit and his Dreamer role, and considering no one has said they visited him during NP1, he had the opportunity to claim its use and just didn't. Maybe he was just hesitant in case someone did claim to visit him and this was defensive play to prevent himself from being sussed, but I think he'd take the opportunity as scum.

On the other hand, Austin's attempts to defend himself have not looked very good. That might have more to do with his availability than what he's actually doing/trying to do, but sussing a team of Mharman and Savant doesn't make sense to me. I can't see these two as a feasible team based on their interactions in DP1. I can better understand why he susses Mharman specifically, but pushing for a "1v1" when he did was pretty baffling since this was coming off of the claim and a point where Mharman's claim made him a more concerning target and did so with little reasoning beyond a basic OMGUS. I also am still trying to wrap my head around the decision to softclaim Day Dreamer, only to be forced to give up that he's the Dreamer. I can see how that might have been calculated specifically to avoid getting visited by town night actions, and Austin said as much during DP1. 

Limited to 5 mentions.

Austin (3/4): Mharman, Savant, WyIted 

Mharman (3/4): Austin, Lunatic, Earth 

Maybe lynch Austin first then, instead of our only protective role?

Austin, plz unvote. Earth and WF's actions make a lot of sense if they are a scum team and want to kill the doctor.

Plz unvote before WF can hammer. I think we may be going after two town players.

Especially this comment by Earth that seems like it's setting up Austin to be mislynched tmrw:

"Mhar is in my POE and him and Austin has been at each other's throats all game. I'm convinced that one must be scum."

Do not hammer yet. I want to rethink this.

I might be a coward, but I think Austin has clearly been acting weirder than Mharman. The fact that WF and Earth both want to go after the latter makes me think they want to get rid of a town power role. I can see where Luna is coming from, and Austin is in a desperate position...but Earth and WF seem way too opportunistic here.

Wasn’t planning on hammering until we’d discussed it, so you don’t have to worry about a quick hammer from me.

I can’t speak to Earth, but I’ve actively sussed Austin this DP and given extensive reasoning as to why. If I wanted Mharman dead, I could’ve (and still could) hammer at any point, so I guess I’m opportunistic but also projecting uncertainty and not taking advantage of the obvious opportunity?

Look at it this way. If Mharman is scum, surely his partner would be defending him. The only suspect for that right now is me, and I'll defend myself if it comes to that. But I don't M's partner being WF, Earth, or Austin. This means Mharman is probably town from my POV.

If Mharman flips town, Lua will be killed at night and Austin will almost certainly be lynched tomorrow. WF and Earth can't lynch him now, since this gives Mharman an opportunity to prove his role. It's in their interest to waste a lynch on Mharman now, since this buys them the exact amount of time they need to win.

You had no idea I was about to jump onto a WF+Earth theory, and you are a very cautious player. I think you were likely going to hammer soon, but you didn't want to be on the chopping block next dp for hammering too fast.