Ace Attorney Mafia DP2

you don’t have to worry about a quick hammer from me.

I don't think he'd be willing to push back that hard on WyIted's misclaim if he was just guessing she wasn't in the game

My gutread on Austin, like it has been since DP1, is that he's town in spite of all the weirdness with his claim then and even the OMGUS - honestly, I just don't think Austin would respond this way to being sussed.

Mharman's claim comes as awfully convenient given the circumstances

I don't really get this. If Austin had a fake claim and knew Maya wasn't in the game, he has no choice but to push back because otherwise he gets lynched. Also, a dreamer role doesn't really fit the theme even if it fits that character. I'm also not sure Casey would put both Mia and Maya in the game because it's confusing, but who knows.

WF relies on a lot of instinct here, which seems like it would be easy for him to lie about if he was scum. I wouldn't expect a player as calculated as whiteflame to base this much of his decision on a gut feeling, especially when Austin has made mistakes before as scum.

This is an odd way of looking at it, because it seems mostly like a chicken-egg issue. Mharman's doctor role seems convenient because it fits Luna's results. Maybe it fits those results because Mharman is in fact a doctor.

Waiting to claim with a power role is just a smart move.

Also, if Mharman was scum, there's a >50% chance he would have visited me or JoeBob or Luna.

Also, we have no other protective role claims. Maybe that's convenient, but it's not something Mharman can control. Phoenix is almost certainly in the game.

I gave a lot of calculated reasoning as to why both of them can look town or sus depending on the angle you’re using to view them. You pull one line out at the end that I used as a basis for distrusting my own read on Austin and then just assume I’m only being instinctual? Wtf dude?

I pointed out that Mharman’s timing of his claim is sus after pointing out that it does fit, maybe a little too neatly, with Luna’s results which were given just beforehand. What’s odd about that, exactly, especially when I said I would likely have bought the claim more if he had claimed before Luna?

In that case, there’s a 50% chance he committed the NK and therefore would have visited JoeBob. Either he or his partner, if there was a Redirect, would have visited me and you. Why do you think he visited Luna?

I don't really get this. If Austin had a fake claim and knew Maya wasn't in the game, he has no choice but to push back because otherwise he gets lynched. Also, a dreamer role doesn't really fit the theme even if it fits that character. I'm also not sure Casey would put both Mia and Maya in the game because it's confusing, but who knows.

WF relies on a lot of instinct here, which seems like it would be easy for him to lie about if he was scum. I wouldn't expect a player as calculated as whiteflame to base this much of his decision on a gut feeling, especially when Austin has made mistakes before as scum.

This is an odd way of looking at it, because it seems mostly like a chicken-egg issue. Mharman's doctor role seems convenient because it fits Luna's results. Maybe it fits those results because Mharman is in fact a doctor. Given that scum targeted JB, they could have targeted anyone, and Mharman knew he had a power role. Waiting to claim with a power role is just a smart move. Mharman's actions make sense from his perspective. Also, if Mharman was scum, there's a >50% chance he would have visited me or JoeBob or Luna.

Also, we have no other protective role claims. Maybe that's convenient, but it's not something Mharman can control. Phoenix is almost certainly in the game.

Overall, WF is focusing more on behavior than I would like, when the mechanics of the situation come pretty close to confirming Mharman.

One thing I thought was kind of suspicious is that Austin admitted to lying after Luna said he thought Austin was town and lying. It's like a tactic that cops use when they want a suspect to admit to part of a crime. "Admit you did [x] and you won't get in trouble." Luna is the cop, Austin is the suspect.

Keep in mind that Mharman's role can theoretically be confirmed. Austin will never be confirmed.

Also, if Mharman was scum, there's a >50% chance he would have visited me or JoeBob or Luna.

Austin, plz unvote. Earth and WF's actions make a lot of sense if they are a scum team and want to kill the doctor.

Ugh, you're probably right. If the team is WF+Earth, voting Austin at least doesn't help them. And if they're both defensive of Austin, he could easily be partners with one of them.

VTL Austin

If the team is WF+Earth, voting Austin at least doesn't help them.

drops it AS SOON AS HE SEES THAT WYLTED CAN HELP LYNCH ME

I recommend Savant and Wylted unvote for sec

How tf does it not help them?

if either of us are town, then we can each be confirmed, either by a successful save or correct results.

Also, my theory is Austin-Whiteflame now

WyIted had already voted for you.

Correct results would not confirm you, because scum knows who is and isn't. And by the time we confirmed them or didn't it will likely be too late.

It wasn't just that one line, it seemed like you were focusing a lot on Austin's behavior. And that one line came immediately after you saying you leaned more toward suspecting Mharman, so I did assume it was a major reason for your decision.

This seems like you're starting with the conclusion that Mharman is sus. If his results fit with Luna's tracker, then he's suspicious (according to you). If they don't, then he's still suspicious. This is why I said Luna should have made Mharman claim first. Other than having the only claimed town protective role, I'm not sure what else Mharman could have done to convince you he was town.

Sry, I don't totally understand how redirect works. But yeah, the fact that he visited himself only makes me less suspicious of him.

A second scum could have committed both actions.

This is just a scumslip. He has no way of knowing that Mharman might have visited Luna.

Savant's progression is incredibly fake. He considers an Earth + WF team, drops it AS SOON AS HE SEES THAT WYLTED CAN HELP LYNCH ME, then decides to go for me EVEN KNOWING that in a WF + Earth world, me and Mharman are practically chained mislynches. No town player considers a world in which neither of the main suspects are scum, and then votes one of them anyway.

Perspective slip. How tf does it not help them? This only makes sense if he's thinking from the lens of "WF + Earth town."

I'd like to note that Earth and Whiteflame are not confirmed town... if you were hesitant to vote so that Austin could make his arguments, you should the same thing for me.

Give me an hour or two I got this

That's true, but I think it still decreases the probability that Mharman is scum.