Ace Attorney Mafia DP2

Author: Casey_Risk

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Lunatic
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For some reason I thought the day phase was ending today, we still have another 24 hours 
Lunatic
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Still asleep I’ll post more later, good to know we still have today to talk things out
WyIted
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@Mharman
Also, my theory is Austin-Whiteflame now
So you told us to unvote Austin to tell us Austin is likely scum
 Wow ok
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@whiteflame
@Austin I still have him in my PoE, but the first would be a weird scum slip since we don't even know if Luna was visited.
That's the scumslip. He has an informed perspective. Town players wouldn't know if Luna was visited or not, so he would have no reason to think that Mharman may have visited Luna. I'm betting that he's scum who used some action on Luna (Luna was an obvious PR by the way he refused to claim) and let that slip.

Savant
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@AustinL0926
Town players wouldn't know if Luna was visited or not, so he would have no reason to think that Mharman may have visited Luna.
My ability was redirected from Luna to whiteflame.
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@AustinL0926
@Savant
My ability was redirected from Luna to whiteflame.
Realizing I didn't think about this, but I had assumed that a Redirect would require targeting you - at least, that's how I've seen it before. Makes me think this is a townslip.

Lunatic
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Only 4 posts since I woke up. Damn maybe we’ve talked about this as much as we can then
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Mharman was acting like there was gonna be some epic showdown today with him and Austin lol all we got was a copy pasted rap lyric im disappointed 
Savant
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No one else unvoted, so VTL Austin
Mharman
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@Lunatic
Thought for a while if I should hammer myself because I was convinced Whiteflame was the teammate and that my case would be so compelling that you'd get both Austin and him in DPs 3 and 4.

But then I realized my case on  Whiteflame wasn't as airtight as I thought. So I rejected the idea because I can't, in good conscience, hammer myself so Austin could be lynched DP3, only for town to have to pick between Earth and Whiteflame

Had a whole final thing typed out but had to delete it

Typing my rebuttal rn it'll crush him trust


WyIted
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Well one of these two are scum otherwise the lynch would've already happened. 
Lunatic
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Looks like the decision comes down to Whiteflame 
Savant
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@Earth
@Lunatic
@whiteflame
@AustinL0926
@WyIted
If Whiteflame hammers Mharman and Mharman is town, I'm down to lynch WF tomorrow.
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@Lunatic
Sell me on mharman and maybe not TBH, but one of these guys are scum otherwise the lynch would've already happened IMo
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Mharman claiming doctor is what is holding me back right noq
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@Savant
If Whiteflame hammers Mharman and Mharman is town, I'm down to lynch WF tomorrow.
So you're fine with everyone else on the lynch apart from the person who is clearly the most hesitant to pick a side and is still giving Mharman ample opportunity to defend himself? Sure, that tracks.
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@Savant
If Whiteflame hammers Mharman and Mharman is town, I'm down to lynch WF tomorrow.


I agree with Whiteflame this is wierd. And substantiates my point earlier about not trusting town to make the right decision tomorrow. Because you’re advocating Austin’s lynch now not whiteflames but assuming mharman flips town you suddenly want to lynch Whiteflame? Whiteflame not hammering as soon as he could means he is likely town regardless of mharmans flip. 
WyIted
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Mharmans post about wanting to self lynch is bothering me, because it seems like he is begging to be town read
Mharman
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It was too big for DART when I pasted it. I figured that would be the case.

Mharman
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@AustinL0926
^^^
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@WyIted
Was explaining as to why I was taking so long.
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@Earth
@Lunatic
@whiteflame
@Savant
@WyIted
Post #379.

Read every sentence.
Mharman
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"Light work, like it's PWC"
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BOOM.
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@Mharman
Just tell me where to vote so I don't have to read all of that. I have a busy week. 

Who is the scum team? 
Mharman
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@WyIted
Just tell me where to vote so I don't have to read all of that.
Bruh. Obviously for Austin this DP.

Who is the scum team? 
The teammate is between Whiteflame and Earth, but I've been going back and forth and am not settled on either.
ILikePie5
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@Mharman
Can you please post that in chucks for privacy reasons 
ILikePie5
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I’ll do it nvm
ILikePie5
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PART 1/3:

1. Savant and Mharman have strong partner equity. They've been voting and agreeing in unison all day phase.

Savant knows he’s town. He knows Lunatic is town because I confirmed him. He believes my doc claim because it goes well with the game. Everyone townreads Wylted.

Meanwhile, I know I’m town, Lunatic is confirmed, Savant is confirmed is my eyes because I was thinking there’d be something like a redirect (I was thinking roleblocker but redirect makes sense). Wylted is someone I heavily townread.

Given our perspectives, of course Savant and I are going to be in agreement. The implication that two townies can’t agree here is hilarious. Disc, Wylted, I were in agreement last game.

2. As scum, the status quo (i.e. the alleged POE of me/whiteflame/Earth) benefits them, which is why Savant is being uncharacteristically quiet and Mharman is doing everything he can to maintain that status quo. 

How is it a status quo? Earth, Lunatic and you are all arguing against it. Whiteflame seems to disagree with my POE given that he still thinks about me. But sure, let’s assume it is for the sake of argument.

If the “status quo” is something that I think is correct, I’m not going to argue against it. I don’t know why Savant is being quiet, but I’m not convinced that it’s uncharacteristic of him.

And let’s talk about the pot calling the kettle black here. You are challenging the POE because it harms your cause. If I have a bias, you do too. At least I can recognize it. You don’t; otherwise you wouldn’t have made that argument.

And sure, if Savant is somehow scum, I’ve overlooked it because of a bias. But being a doctor, I like redirect in the game because it’s one of the many ways to break up any coordination between a doctor and investigative roles. There was also Earth’s claim. Either Earth is telling the truth, or he’s scum and strengthener is a fake claim based on inside information. Either way, there’s a good reason to believe there’s a redirect.

I don’t see a huge problem with Savant’s behavior. Earlier I felt him trying to go along with your POE on him, Lunatic, and Wylted was a case of trying to blend in… but that doesn’t mean much, given that I believed it for some time too. Looking back at DP1, a lot what he said feels like a townie trying to piece the game together.

3. Mharman's entire case is built on setup speculation. This isn't a genuine way of scumhunting, because unless there's something obviously egregious (e.g. a straight CC), it all comes down to a guess on what the mod intended.

It isn’t entirely setup spec. I’ve had an FOS on you since midway through DP1 based on your behavior. Even after switching my reads of Savant and Lunatic around, I STILL had that FOS on you. The only reason I got pushed off it and had to be reminded by Joebob’s flip was because I was VERY convinced Savant was scum by the end of DP1.

4. I don't care if I get hammered today if you get Mharman and Savant afterward. They're not accepting this, and continually trying to deflect to the alleged POE.

Pot kettle black. You’re continually trying to push back on the POE. You’re arguing as hard as I am… you care more than you think, actually. I have a good reason: If I trade myself for you today, then town is left to decide between Earth and Whiteflame. I’d rather lynch you today so we have room to lynch both Earth and Whiteflame if needed.

Also pot kettle black: You had a POE of your own, remember? 

wylted/luna locktown, i like earth and whiteflame but cant lock them town, savant/mharman poe

You know what’s funny about Austin’s POE? He can lock Wylted on town based on behavior, but can’t lock Whiteflame and Earth… yet he asserts the POE is exclusively Savant and I. It’s almost as if he made the claims on Savant and I out of desperation while under heavy pressure, and now he has to stick to them.

5. Mharman's logic regarding Savant makes no sense. He says that because Savant told the truth in a setup where scum can easily fakeclaim, it makes him town. This ignores that Savant's role is confirmable, which on this site's meta gets you townread for ?? reasons.

Magistrate being kinda weak until LYLO is a good reason to out it. He also outed it before Earth claimed, meaning that he didn’t have a massive reason to think about anything like a roleblock or redirector. It’s definetely something he missed and should’ve thought about, but it’s an error I can see a townie making. Given that some people were sussing him and he believed your DP1 POE, there’s an argument that outing it DP1 made sense for the situation if he’s town, and the fact it was real decreases the likelihood of him being scum. 

This is another behavior reason for me to think Savant is town now: At the start of the game, mafia had the chance to find two great fakeclaims. It’s kinda like the forbidden fruit. I don’t think they’d resist the temptation to fakeclaim in this game.

ILikePie5
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PART 2/3:

6. Mharman's claim of Doc is the exact same that Savant did in Mahabharata. Notice how he's pushing the exact "I'm un-CC'd so I HAVE to be town" angle. 

There’s two big differences between that situation and this one.

  1. Savant fakelcaimed DP1, at a time when the apportioner was unlikely to CC and reveal their own role. Here I am fullclaiming DP2, and no one has claimed any protective role at all.
  2. Furthermore, there was an apportioner and a gambler in that game. The only person who hasn’t fullclaimed here is Whiteflame, and he claimed to not have a protective role. 

Expanding on Point #2: The fact that I am still uncontested for the only protective role in the game after…
  1. Joebob and Owen have fully flipped
  2. Austin, Lunatic, Earth, Savant, and Wylted have fullclaimed
  3. Whiteflame has said he doesn’t have a protective role
… should tell everyone in this game that it’s legitimate and that I should be confirmed town.

Lunatic has a pass because he’s confirmed. Where’s your confirmation, Austin?

7. A redirector makes no sense in this setup. Almost all the other roles are relatively simple or thematic, redirector is a clear outlier in terms of complexity.
8. Also makes no sense for scum to use their redirector on Savant. It makes far more sense for Savant to simply be lying.

And here’s the contradiction I mentioned earlier. It is a contradiction so bad I can only call it a scumslip.

If Austin is genuinely operating under the conclusion that Savant and I are scum, he would believe Earth, who claimed strengther. If he believes there’s a strengthener, then he has no reason to think we’re faking redirector.

Either Earth is scum and fakeclaiming, in which case he’s revealed he doesn’t believe his scum teammate’s claim… OR Earth’s claim is real and Austin forgot/ignored it because he’s so busy pushing his BS on Savant and I.

Take your pick. Either way, he’s scum. He can’t be town, otherwise he’d be scumreading Earth and Savant rn with his “fake redirector” logic.

9. Justice/Dreamer make perfect sense, it's not overpowered at all if scum has a lawyer/framer - e.g. if Justice gets "same alignment" on two players, one of whom flips town and the other is lawyered, then town is fucking screwed. I would bet 10 bucks that scum have a lawyer/framer btw.

LMAO no. Scum would still have to decide which member to lawyer. And there’s no guarantee justice would even investigate someone in the mafia.

10. Mharman had no good reason for protecting himself n1 when he was in poe, it's a retroactive justification for probably lawyering himself.

Prove it then. If you want to insinuate that it’s fake, give a reason why. Anyone reading it should no there’s no way I could fake something that detailed, that genuine.

Furthermore, my post defending myself back there shows something very townie: Human error, from the perspective of limited information, with a hint of paranoia.

  1. I made a mistake reading Savant’s character claim. I mistakenly felt innocent child conflicted with magistrate.
  2. Lunatic openly stated he regrets outting his role this DP. Something about how if he know Phoenix could possibly be doctor, he wouldn’t have outed.
  3. Wylted made a mistake reading his character and didn’t think there’d be one with a similar name.
  4. Savant outed his role not thinking about how scum could use it for counterplay. When he outed his role, Earth hadn’t claimed.

The only error I saw you make was being obvious as fuck (as Wylted put it) with your softclaim. But that’s not an error from limited information- it’s an error from impatience and overconfidence. 

No dreamer, noobs aside, is making that error as town. They would be paranoid, thinking, “I’m signing my death warrant if I make my bread too obvious.” 

The only reason you’d be obvious as fuck is if you wanted town to catch on as quickly as possible for town cred. Impatience and hubris is your human error, and in this case it’s not a townie error. 

You got a presumably good fake claim and it got to your head. You wanted to use it as soon as possible. But as soon as you didn’t feel a lynch on any of your three accused was likely, you fell back on the “it’s a gambit” thing, since town was giving you that way out. You even prepared an escape ladder for yourself on that- by hinting at it being a gambit to others, including Lunatic. However, it was also obvious as fuck.

No one actually making that gambit is going to bread that it’s a gambit- not that obviously. They’re going to be as secretive as possible, so that they don’t undermine the usefulness of their gambit by making it too obvious. Again, this is you getting impatient for town cred.

I mean seriously, are we HONESTLY supposed to believe you started the game with dreamer and thought, “oh let me reveal that DP1… I’ll fake claim daydreamer on top of that, scanning for reactions of the people I accused, and then reveal I’m a dreamer in the night only afterward”... which somehow worked out despite you being obvious as fuck with your gambit, all because you generated activity?

  1. You don’t need gambits like that to generate activity. There’s ways that aren’t braindead for people with investigative roles to generate activity: Look at Lunatic last DP.
  2. If you can generate activity by doing that gambit as town, you can generate activity by faking it as scum.