Ace Attorney Mafia DP2

Author: Casey_Risk

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Lunatic
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@Mharman
Wylted is so townie that I could build a house and raise a family on his behavior.

Adding this to my book of mafia qoutes
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@Mharman
@AustinL0926
@Savant
Scum is in Austin, WF, Earth. (Or Austin and WyIted, though that's unlikely.) Right now, WF and Earth should be sussing Austin like crazy. If they are town, they know 100% that Austin is scum.
@Savant I really don't get how WyIted factors into this since he's widely townread. As I've already said, Austin is a tricky call because I sat through that CC battle in real time and I just don't buy that scum would engage in that as he did. Maybe it's a gambit like his Day Dreamer was. I've seen people claim that scum was playing 4D chess before only to see the flip and have everyone be proven wrong. That's where my hesitance comes from. That being said, I'd sooner believe an Austin/Earth team than a Mharman/Earth team based chiefly on claims.

It’s only an impressive misdirect if it’s on Wylted’s part, given he was the one who got confused. All Austin had to do was defend his claim.

Seriously how did we let ourselves believe he was doing some crazy gambit. No dreamer on earth is going to pull that crap; they’re gonna do what Joebob did and hang back, say the bare minimum until time runs low or they’re really confident on a read, and avoid claiming at all costs.
@Mharman The part that I don't understand is his hesitancy to use both the CC and the claim itself to get a mislynch. He could have scumread WyIted over the CC and gotten traction without sussing himself (it was WyIted's mistake after all), but didn't. He could have produced a Dreamer result since no one's claiming they visited him, but didn't. I agree completely that the Day Dreamer gambit was absurd and I don't blame anyone for sussing him over it. I had a solid townread on him up to that point, and that's no longer the case, but I'm still having trouble reconciling his actions with him being scum.

just realized it's Savant and Mharman. Savant magistrated whiteflame to make him look sus, Mharman then pretended to realize that this meant scum "must" have a redirector, which pushes suspicion onto me.

They've also been pushing in parallel, Savant's progression makes very little sense from last phase, and conveniently they're both pushing for a POE that doesn't include them.
@Austin So this assumes that Savant is a scum Magistrate who Mharman has repeatedly sussed over the past DP (at some points getting pretty close to a lynch) yet they are on a scum team together. An early bus isn't out of the question, but considering that Savant claimed what he did well before he knew there was a Tracker in the game, this seems like riskier play than I would expect from either of them. I'd say it's more likely that Savant is scum than Mharman, even with the confirmation of the Magistrate (Mharman's having used something on himself helps his case that he's the Doc and the lack of another protective role helps his case more), but I don't see them as a likely team. For me, PoE is down to you, Earth and Savant.
WyIted
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Sorry I can't contribute much though putting effort into other threads but it's hard not to buy whiteflames reasoning.. 

I get this nagging feeling that Austin is scum that I can't shake but the reasoning of whiteflames surrounding it is lock tight. 
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@whiteflame
Your reasoning about Austin is good but what does your gut say?
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@WyIted
If I had to pick now, though I do feel bad about it since he's at a chess tournament and has his attentions elsewhere, I would lynch Austin. There are factors both in his favor and against him, but if he's been playing more defensively and trying to look more townie after his Day Dreamer gambit, I think much of this tracks. I get sussing Mharman because he's painting Austin into a corner, but putting his vote on him and opting to "1v1 me buckaroo" against the only claimed protective role doesn't sit well with me, especially since he claims to be sussing Savant as well. I think his flip would also be very informative, since Earth seems largely dismissive of the reasons he's being sussed and Savant seems dead set on lynching Austin. 
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@whiteflame
The part that I don't understand is his hesitancy to use both the CC and the claim itself to get a mislynch. He could have scumread WyIted over the CC and gotten traction without sussing himself (it was WyIted's mistake after all), but didn't.
You’re assuming scum needs or wants to be dishonest in that situation. They don’t have to be lying at all times. Wylted was going to full claim at one point or another that DP after his confusion and if he got lynched and flipped innocent DP1, town today would realize how hasty they were and would be looking at who was on that wagon. Sure, scum could use that to create other mislynch opportunities, but in a role mad game where some people on that wagon are going to be townread and/or confirmed as the game goes on, it might lead town to scum. It’s risky, and that’s a plan scum might want to go for.

And the reason he doesn’t need to go for it? He had Maya confirmed to him by Casey. He obviously knew Wylted was not Maya and everyone in town knows Wylted can and will try these types of CC gambits as town. The best thing for him to do there was to not take any bait, and wait until it gets revealed that Wylted wasn’t Maya.



He could have produced a Dreamer result since no one's claiming they visited him, but didn't.

That was far earlier in this DP, where he thought he had a chance of framing someone for visiting him.

Now that Lunatic and I basically confirmed each other, his options are more limited and he knows POE is just you, him, and Earth. We have three lynches left and we can get all of you for a guaranteed win. That’s why he went for the conspiracy theory about Savant and I last night.

Furthermore, given that he said DP1 he was planning on forcing scum to use resources on him: A no result, implying that scum did use a resource on him, would make him look town. That’s also why he said he had no results.
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@Mharman
Points taken. I can see a route by which he would get there, though I think it'd be pretty crazy if he asked Casey about this specific member of the Fey family and two others are here as town. I did find his theory about you and Savant being a scum team pretty sus. In any case, I'm at least going to give him a chance to respond to all this before I make my decision since we've got time left in the DP and I have a problem with just lynching someone who is absent due to outside circumstances.
WyIted
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he could legitimately be that fey character and scum. We do not know the theme split yet
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@whiteflame
It’s risky, and that’s a plan scum might want to go for.
Typo correction: *Might NOT want to go for

And yeah, I’m okay with waiting.
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@WyIted
I don’t think so; the dreamer fake claim is clearly designed to go with Maya Fey. It’s reasonable to say that Maya was confirmed to Austin because he asked about her.
Lunatic
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Well I've been conflicted ever since mharman claimed doctor. On one hand, doctor was like the only role I told myself would get a pass for  a self visit after I got the result. But that distinction between "saving" people "protecting" people legally feels kind of like a shaky line. I know he also saved people outside of the legal case, but still I figured a doctor or protective role would be an actual medical type of person since my character seems to have an actual investigative background, and I looked it up, there are many medical types of people in this theme. 

The only reason I am not buying into my own wifom here, is because it seems odd that their wouldn't be any town protection roles. Not that its not balanced with out them, a protection can be pretty OP for the town. But most mods tend to wanna have at least one protection and I'd kind of expect casey as a new mod to have one. But we keep juggling this question of what casey would or wouldn't do in our heads and it's really like "who knows" until the endgame. 

Anways, I buy whiteflame is town for now behaviorally.

For mharman and earth to be scum there has to be no protective roles, and I have to buy earth carried the kill out as well as the redirect. I also have to buy that they risked letting me go with results despite me having hinted heavily towards being an investigative role yesterday which would have been risky. Unless they just always planned to claim self visiting doctor if I was a tracker. It's definitely possible.

Mharman could also be partnered with someone else I had town read like WyIted or whiteflame.

Austin could be scum, I don't see him and savant as partners unless they just went out of their way to make the biggest bussing episode ever yesterday. I felt austin is town for all the wifom reasons whiteflame did, why not just let the chaos of his fake dreamer results provide free mislynches? Unless he lost confidence in it and didn't think it would happen. I kind of wanted to see what austin would say in his defense of the POE argument and that was going to help me decide. His argument against mharman felt really weak and the "1 v 1 me bro" thing was really not what I was expecting. I kind of was looking for more umph in his argument than that. But if that's all he has it makes me doubt austin way more as being town, and being more oppertunistic for any lynch he can get. He also feels a bit cornered right now. Could be he is busy and just didn't have time to make a proper argument, and he did say he would contribute more towards this later. I hope he does because after last night I am leaning more towards austin being scum than town.

I am not sure who is scum partner would be. I don't think wylted is entirely out of the question either. The wifom around the CC thing that we keep town reading him for could be orchestrated if they were partners. Earth I guess is a possibility, but I feel like earth would be selling austin out as scum rather than sticking to his side. Idk.

I kind of wanna wait for austin to come back and see what else he has to say and puzzle this out further. 


Lunatic
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@AustinL0926
Savant's progression makes very little sense from last phase,
What do you mean by this? He's been wanting to lynch you the whole time, I guess he did back off a little when you claimed what you did, but I never got the vibe he thought you were town. 
AustinL0926
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hi everyone i feel bad cuz y'all are waiting for me but i rly rly will be active tonight, on phone rn

thoughts: i think savant makes the most sense as scum bc i rly can't believe they redirect the magistrate. absolute waste of a powerful role

still believe mharman is scum for bad faith push on me. his mech makes no sense, he's been coasting off his doc claim which could easily be fake. setup spec is meaningless for a new mod btw, pie also helped moozer with his game and it was unbalanced as fuck

also, having two alignment determining roles (justice/dreamer) makes PERFECT SENSE if scum have a lawyer/framer which can be used to manipulate both

wylted/luna locktown, i like earth and whiteflame but cant lock them town, savant/mharman poe

earth is unpaired for not going with their push, whiteflame kinda?

yea all my solves just end up going with mharman/savant. neither of them are cleared mechanically in ANY WAY btw, so don't buy their args that they're out of the poe.

again ill be active tonight so dont hammer before then

Earth
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Thinking of it now, I wonder if Justice (Parity Cop?) and a Dreamer pair well together. I still don't think Austin is scum but I think Austin might be struggling to properly form his thoughts. I get he's busy, but still.
Lunatic
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The other thing with mharman I struggle with is why he protected himself. I know he thought savant would kill him but that seemed out of the question, mharman was in the POE pool last day phase and I don't think scum had any reason to think he was a PR threat. It seems like a waste of the role and kind of anti town from my perspective.
Mharman
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@AustinL0926

thoughts: i think savant makes the most sense as scum bc i rly can't believe they redirect the magistrate. absolute waste of a powerful role
Not if you wanted to create WIFOM scenarios. It's actually quite useful to redirect that because if Lunatic hadn't visited, he and I wouldn't be confirmed. This would leave us in a situation where Lunatic, Whitleflame, Earth, you, and I wouldn't be confirmed. From there, all you'd have to do was get one lynch from the pool that wasn't you or Earth, and then get Whiteflame the next day. Or Whiteflame then someone from the pool. (really starting to like Whiteflame here over Earth btw)

still believe mharman is scum for bad faith push on me. his mech makes no sense, he's been coasting off his doc claim which could easily be fake. setup spec is meaningless for a new mod btw, pie also helped moozer with his game and it was unbalanced as fuck
AGAIN: There is a difference between someone's who's claimed one of three investigative roles in the game, and someone who has claimed the only protective role in the game. Doctor is one of the most common roles and in games where it's missing, there's almost always some other protective role. No one is here to CC me. The only CC here is joebob's flip.

And the appeal to the outlier that is Moozer's game is bs. Pie literally said that Moozer didn't listen to him on some design choices. He approved the concept of using CCs to give scum some help, sure, but that was Moozer's idea. Did Casey make the same mistake this game? I doubt it, given how diverse the roles here already are.

And even in Moozer's game, NONE of the protective roles were near exact. The all had different ways of doing the same thing. Meanwhile, dreamer and justice give scum limited pools to keep going from there. The same method to do the same thing.

Your logic on that hinges on:
-Casey making the same design mistake as Moozer, but even worse since two roles are this close
AND
-Pie approving the same mistake after everyone hated Moozer's setup OR Casey also not listening to Pie

also, having two alignment determining roles (justice/dreamer) makes PERFECT SENSE if scum have a lawyer/framer which can be used to manipulate both
Not really. Town is already doing well on investigative roles with Justice and Tracker already, especially with a Doctor to protect. It's already enough to warrant a lawyer/framer that could mess with them. Dreamer is still redundant.

yea all my solves just end up going with mharman/savant. neither of them are cleared mechanically in ANY WAY btw, so don't buy their args that they're out of the poe.
LMAO. Go find a jailkeeper or something before you assert that. As for Savant, again: He used the same role he claimed, and it was confirmed by Casey. He was TELLING THE TRUTH about his role in the game where mafia is incentivized to fake claim their roles because of how easy it is.
Mharman
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@Earth
Parroting go crazy
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@Lunatic
The other thing with mharman I struggle with is why he protected himself. I know he thought savant would kill him but that seemed out of the question, mharman was in the POE pool last day phase and I don't think scum had any reason to think he was a PR threat. It seems like a waste of the role and kind of anti town from my perspective.
1. A lot of people were in the POE pool. You and Wylted were the only people that were universally town read. That's not a reason for me to say that I should sacrifice the utility I have for POE when there are investigative roles I should sacrifice myself for instead, however...
2. I didn't see any good investigative roles to target.
3. I misevaluated and thought the scum team would see me as one because I thought my bread was sensible. My bread was based on faulty reasoning and I didn't realize until later.

Dude. Everything you have posted scumreading me has been on a heavy confirmation bias and paranoia. Seriously, you started by saying "oh Mharman is the game, is it him?" then voting me. And because we have different ideas of RVS, my response believing your logic on my to be stupid made you think I was scum. From there, everything I have done has been scummy in your mind. You started with the idea that I could be scum, and just let it creep further into your head from there.


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@Mharman
I find it kind of telling that no one in the POE (WF, Austin, Earth) is willing to admit that they are the POE as of now.
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@Lunatic
I have a question for you. If I'm scum, who's my teammate?

-I've hardpressing for an Austin lynch right now.
-I scumread Savant late DP1, and was so confident in my read throughout NP1 that I didn't even notice Whiteflame had been made unvoteable at the start of this DP
-I had a massive FOS on Whiteflame on in Post 662 of DP1 and said I was torn between him and Earth earlier today. I'm only now starting to really think he's town.
-I'm hard accusing Earth right now. The only reason my vote isn't on him is because Austin exists.

The only person I've consistently townread all game is Wylted. Are you about to conclude Wylted is scum or that my reads on one of those four are fake? Because if you look at my posts and think about what my thought process would be in combination, you should hopefully be able to tell that I'm not bullshitting my reads. And if you remember that long-ass post I made earlier this DP, it should pair well with my posts from earlier.
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@Savant
I find it kind of telling that no one in the POE (WF, Austin, Earth) is willing to admit that they are the POE as of now.
From my pov you and mharman are just as equal in that POE as any of the other three. Your role confirmed, not affiliation confirmed. The magistrate not being used how you said it was could mean that you tried to cause confusion with a redirector. Not saying I buy that is the case, but in my shoes its just as likely as austin not even trying to fake dreamer results and going through with that whole ploy last day phase just to back off of it and not allow mislynches to come of it when he easily could have as scum. And Mharman's in the POE too. It's suspicious he docc'ed himself because I don't think anyone realistically thought he was going to be the night kill target. Plus his character still doesn't make sense as doctor to me, only if you really use to the term "saving" loosely. And there is a million self visiting mafia roles he could just as equally be. Earth actually made the right decision with his ability, because as you pointed out I did kind of obviously claim an investigator, so he gets town points for that from me and because my action didn't fail last night when I 100% expected it too. I don't know if I was roleblocked, or if they really did randomly waste a redirect on you to cause confusion. 

But you see my point? All three of those people if town, know they are town. Same with you, if you are town you know you are town. Would you want to admit to being in the POE?

Also I am pretty sure whiteflame did admit to knowing he was in the POE in a response he made to me recently. 
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Guys I am useless this game. Sorry I am trying but if honestly when it comes time for me to vote I will probably need to read the arguments for why and kean on other people's judgementa
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@Mharman
1. A lot of people were in the POE pool. You and Wylted were the only people that were universally town read. That's not a reason for me to say that I should sacrifice the utility I have for POE when there are investigative roles I should sacrifice myself for instead, however...
2. I didn't see any good investigative roles to target.

You didn't catch on to the multiple obvious posts where I was basically warning austin of consequences to his dreamer results pushing me to claim, or when I was arguing with savant I told him there was something he was missing (he kept saying he could just be investigated, and what I was implying he was missing was the fact that I could be investigator). I made it so obvious that I was convinced I was going to be the night kill target, or at the very least roleblocked. Earth using his ability on me makes sense to why I wasn't roleblocked. But still, surprised you thought you were the best person to use the role on there. Even with you saying wylted is so town you can grow a family off his behavior, you wouldn't protect him? Just seems odd. 

Dude. Everything you have posted scumreading me has been on a heavy confirmation bias and paranoia. Seriously, you started by saying "oh Mharman is the game, is it him?" then voting me. 
I mean I said earlier that I was leaning on the scum being austin. My vote is not currently on you yet you are accusing me of confirmation bias. I am trying to be partial to both sides here. I don't like Austin's defense either. 

 And because we have different ideas of RVS, my response believing your logic on my to be stupid made you think I was scum.
I dropped that forever ago.

From there, everything I have done has been scummy in your mind. You started with the idea that I could be scum, and just let it creep further into your head from there.
1. I think you are taking it personally; don't. If I think your scum it's because I respect you and your abilities as a mafia player, and think your clever enough to pull the cloth over peoples eyes. I have nothing but respect and admiration for you as a mafia player, so don't take it as a me v you thing. There are logical reasons for all of my suspicions, and even then I am not voting you, so that shows you I'm not just blindly tunneling you here. The fact that I am even dialouging with you is evidence I am willing to hear you out.

2. I came into DP2 hard scum reading you for the following reasons. For one, you voted for Owen after putting him super high on your town read list. Also I wasn't there, but to me owen's pleas and begs for people to tell him what he was doing wrong just screamed townie to me after that. Ngl wylted pushing that lynch so hard has also made me a little less sure of him being confirmed town now as well. Secondly, the self visiting thing. I've already explained why I think that character is more likely to me a lawyer/framer than a doctor, as well as I don't see the reason for you docing yourself as completely solid.

I am giving you a mod psyche pass on the argument that "saving" equals doctoring, because casey is a new mod, and I am giving you a slight pass on the self doctor thing because even going into the day phase I was telling myself I could be onto a town doctor here, and the fact that you haven't been CC'ed as a protective role also works in your favor. Not that I don't think the game would be balanced without one, I just think it's another mod psyche point that casey would probably have a protection role in the game after playing in many other games that have them. 

tl;dr don't take it so personally. I am still undecided, just trying to factor in all options here. 
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@Mharman
I have a question for you. If I'm scum, who's my teammate?

-I've hardpressing for an Austin lynch right now.
-I scumread Savant late DP1, and was so confident in my read throughout NP1 that I didn't even notice Whiteflame had been made unvoteable at the start of this DP
-I had a massive FOS on Whiteflame on in Post 662 of DP1 and said I was torn between him and Earth earlier today. I'm only now starting to really think he's town.
-I'm hard accusing Earth right now. The only reason my vote isn't on him is because Austin exists.

The only person I've consistently townread all game is Wylted. Are you about to conclude Wylted is scum or that my reads on one of those four are fake? Because if you look at my posts and think about what my thought process would be in combination, you should hopefully be able to tell that I'm not bullshitting my reads. And if you remember that long-ass post I made earlier this DP, it should pair well with my posts from earlier.

Despite how WIFOM heavy that post is, I do agree with your WIFOM points. I doubt your scum mate would be austin WF or earth. Actually I do see a case for wylted being the scum partner. He isn't as town confirmed to me as he seems to be to everyone else. The chances that it is whiteflame or earth are also possible, I know you FOS'ed them but that is more likely to be faked than the austin one. I think you and austin are legit either T v T or T v S. 

In order of likelihood I would rank your scum partner equity as follows:
1. Wylted.
2. Whiteflame
3. Earth
98. Savant
99. Austin
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@WyIted
Guys I am useless this game. Sorry I am trying but if honestly when it comes time for me to vote I will probably need to read the arguments for why and kean on other people's judgementa
Are you struggling because you've been busy IRL, or is it that you just feel the decision before us is a super hard one to make?
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@Lunatic
Are you struggling because you've been busy IRL, or is it that you just feel the decision before us is a super hard one to make
IrL stuff distracting me. My own fault. 


whiteflame
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@AustinL0926
@Savant
thoughts: i think savant makes the most sense as scum bc i rly can't believe they redirect the magistrate. absolute waste of a powerful role

still believe mharman is scum for bad faith push on me. his mech makes no sense, he's been coasting off his doc claim which could easily be fake. setup spec is meaningless for a new mod btw, pie also helped moozer with his game and it was unbalanced as fuck
@Austin Considering that the Magistrate is made obvious by the mod and considering that most people are still sussing me as a result, I'd say it's not a waste of the role. Whether it was used by Savant for the purpose or Redirected by someone else, I'd say there's obvious utility to it.

Mharman has provided some pretty good reasoning against you, so I wouldn't call it "bad faith," especially since we were all wary of you after your "Day Dreamer" softclaim fell apart. I agree that Doctor isn't the most obvious role for Phoenix Wright, and given that it came so late, I was initially tempted to scumread it as well. But it's also the only protective role in the game, so yeah, I understand why he's wielding it.

I find it kind of telling that no one in the POE (WF, Austin, Earth) is willing to admit that they are the POE as of now.
@Savant I said I was in the PoE pool coming from the last DP in my second post in this DP, which was a response to you. My circumstances changed for the decidedly worse at the start of this DP with in that respect due to my being unlynchable, so yes, I'm still there. In this post, I responded to Luna saying that I'm in PoE and the obvious lynch next DP. How many times do you want me to say it?


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@WyIted
IrL stuff distracting me. My own fault. 

Do you need help catching up? I can give you a run down of the day phase. 
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@whiteflame
How many times do you want me to say it?
I mean agreeing that POE is Austin, you, and Earth. Not just saying that you are in it. But maybe I should have been more clear.
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Alright let's analyze Austin a lil bit because I am having trouble with this one.

Town points:

- Austin could have let one of us die in the dreamer results yesterday as scum. The move would cause a ton of chaos and he could get one to two mislynches out of it before he got lynched. He very early on caught on to my hint at investigator, and didn't seem to want me to claim. 

- He backed off of it as soon as we prodded him that this was feeling wierd and all parties were potentially town. This felt town to me. The whole ploy felt town and garnered a lot of activity and most of the talk dp1.

- It makes 0 sense for scum austin to not just fake dreamer results coming into dp2. He did himself 0 favors as town by claiming to be visited.

Scum points: 

- His play overall this day phase has been lacking. Most of this is due to IRL obligations and he did tell us he would be active tonight so I am waiting for some better activity from him. I don't like the  "1 v 1" me mharman thing. I am expecting more from austin and I usually find him to be a pretty avid scum hunter, so this lazy play is shocking to me. I can justify it with him being scum and frustrated maybe that the dreamer play didn't work out they way he thought it would, and maybe he thinks hope is lost and is kind of throwing? I see more motive for him to do that if scum than town. 

- I am only kind of putting stock in the argument about there being three investigator roles is scummy because of how OP I personally feel a justice is. A justice can potentially give you two results in one night. Either two town results, two scum results (probably rare) or one town and one scum result. That's insane. Me knowing I am tracker on top of that makes it feel a little crazy. Again this is a first time mod though, and for all I know mafia have counters to all this. In fact if they do, I think a lawyer would be one of them, and I do highly suspect mharman of being a lawyer. If there is a lawyer then I guess this role doesn't feel as OP to me.