Ace Attorney Mafia DP2

Author: Casey_Risk

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AustinL0926
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@Savant
Also what are the chances the three people Austin accuses day 1 all happen to be town? Less than 50% according to my calculations.
Someone doesn't understand a priori odds I see. If I cop someone guilty n1, that's 2/8 chance. Therefore there's a 25% chance I'm telling the truth, and a 75% chance I'm scum. good one.
Earth
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Honestly hilarious how we are sussing Austin. Like come on, there are legit reasons to sus that gambit he pulled, but the mechanics reasons Savant and Mhar are pulling are non sense.
AustinL0926
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Yeah Mharman's push makes no sense lol. His mechanical reasons are based on speculation over what the setup is (notice that he needs to assume that Casey wouldn't put similar roles, that a Doctor wouldn't be in a game with a Dreamer, and that scum HAVE to have a ninja for some reason), and he has no real behavioral reasons.
AustinL0926
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oh thank fucking goodness someone has some sense.
whiteflame
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@Lunatic
@Mharman
@Savant
Alright, going to try to address everything I missed.

did Whiteflame claim roleblocked?
@Luna I did not.

Why the fvck would anyone redirect a magistrate expect for to try to make Whiteflame look scummy but then on the other hand that seems too obvious and almost does the opposite
@Luna I was already in PoE and my lynch is virtually guaranteed next DP. Obvious clearly works to draw attention, though I know that's WIFOM. I was actually planning on doing something similar in the last game as scum, but as you recall, it didn't work out due to that last NK failing.

However, I will full claim: Doctor.
@Mharman Given the absence of any other protective role and that he's known chiefly for being a defense attorney who, as you say, has saved numerous clients, the Doctor role makes sense. He's not the only prominent defense attorney in the games, with Ema Skye (Luna's claim) being another main character who is known for her work as a defense attorney. It's not the most obvious choice, but it does make some sense. I don't love the long delay to post it, but compliments to Mharman on a convincing long post detailing his claim.

In before WF claims a protective role to cause a mislynch.
@Savant I am not one of those, hence I buy Mharman's claim.

1. Joebob’s role is basically the same thing as what Austin claimed, except it works with doctors and other irrelevant things
2. Doctor doesn’t work with Dreamer and I’m a dumbass for forgetting about how dreamers can be disturbed earlier
3. His behavior still sucks now that I think about it. He literally posted something like “look at me! I have this role and the matching character is the deuteragonist! No way I could be scum!”, then got busted for lying, then invented a fake gambit to cover his ass and get town cred because town was wondering if he was gambiting anyway
4. So there’s obviously a ninja. And a redirector. That doesn’t leave anyone left who could disturb Austin’s sleep. We know the redirector used their abilities, so the Ninja probably Nk’d JoeBob.
@Mharman I can see some point to this, though I think each of the arguments individually aren't that strong. #1 is modpsych, #2 is an interaction between roles that doesn't really tell me much, and #4 is an assumption (the Ninja) and an open question that suggests more actions on the part of scum. #3 is the main point I agree with, at least in part, because I do think the whole Day Dreamer gambit ended up making him look more sus and the lack of an action NP1 doesn't help his case. I still townread him behaviorally based on the previous DP - the whole CC back-and-forth with WyIted would have to have been an impressive misdirect.
Savant
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@Earth
@Lunatic
@whiteflame
@AustinL0926
@WyIted
Scum is in Austin, WF, Earth. (Or Austin and WyIted, though that's unlikely.) Right now, WF and Earth should be sussing Austin like crazy. If they are town, they know 100% that Austin is scum.
Savant
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I might be jumping to conclusions, but does anyone really dispute that those three players are the POE as of now?
Mharman
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Literally everything we do in the game of mafia is speculation. It’s just aided by behavioral and mechanical reads. 

I know Casey is a new mod… but no mod, not even a new one, is going to put darn near the same role in the game twice on the same faction. They are both roles that are used in the night and give town limited results so that they have a nudge in the right direction but still need to read people. They both are useful when paired with a watcher that can further the investigation. The only difference is that one of them is confirmed, and the other was said by the guy who said “I’m the deuteragonist! It can’t be me!” … in the game where major characters in the theme can be outright missing and and asked about by scum.

The appeals to a new mod aren’t even relevant since Pie helped design this game. By the way, I could go through every DART game in the archives and I wouldn’t find a single one where two roles this similar were on the same team.

And sure, we don’t automatically have a ninja, but it’s a reasonable assumption given we have a tracker. Regardless, disturbed dreams are irrelevant if there’s no dreamer to begin with. I’m telling y’all. The previously solid looks of the mechanical side of things don’t match the behavior; not even Austin’s defenders can deny it. Now that the mechanical side of things is busted, a case for townie Austin has no legs to stand on.

Anyway, I was hoping I’d figure out who the teammate was but they’re both defending him. I guess I’ll give points to Whiteflame because his defense at least understood that the obvious truth might actually be truth. And he could have CC’d me but didn’t. Earth’s Godot claim is interesting and all, but he’s been hanging back all game long (something I remember him doing in Ozark Mafia) and the quick pushback on one of the most obvious scumreads of the year is suspicious. I’m not 100% sold but I’m a good 75% confident Earth is the teammate.

Mharman
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@whiteflame
I still townread him behaviorally based on the previous DP - the whole CC back-and-forth with WyIted would have to have been an impressive misdirect.
It’s only an impressive misdirect if it’s on Wylted’s part, given he was the one who got confused. All Austin had to do was defend his claim.

Seriously how did we let ourselves believe he was doing some crazy gambit. No dreamer on earth is going to pull that crap; they’re gonna do what Joebob did and hang back, say the bare minimum until time runs low or they’re really confident on a read, and avoid claiming at all costs.
AustinL0926
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@Earth
@Lunatic
@whiteflame
@WyIted
just realized it's Savant and Mharman. Savant magistrated whiteflame to make him look sus, Mharman then pretended to realize that this meant scum "must" have a redirector, which pushes suspicion onto me.

They've also been pushing in parallel, Savant's progression makes very little sense from last phase, and conveniently they're both pushing for a POE that doesn't include them.

Game is easy ggs
Earth
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@Mharman
lol... How long ago was Ozark mafia? Must be like 2 years ago?
AustinL0926
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VTL Mharman

1v1 me buckaroo
Mharman
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@Savant
I might be jumping to conclusions, but does anyone really dispute that those three players are the POE as of now?
You’re confirmed. Lunatic is confirmed. I’m an un CC’d doc (like not even any other NK-preventing roles are claimed) that Lunatic saw self-protect so I’d call myself confirmed. Wylted is so townie that I could build a house and raise a family on his behavior.

So no, you are not jumping to conclusions.
Mharman
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@AustinL0926
Lmao @ the desperation
Earth
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Mhar hasn't played mafia for like a year and his grand argument for why I am scum is that because I hang back. Bro. 
Mharman
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Wait I didn’t even read that fully HE SAID SAVANT WAS SCUM LMAOOOOOOOOO


LOLILOLOLOLILILOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
Mharman
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@Earth
You’re forgetting the points I gave Whiteflame
Earth
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There is no way Pie would allow this many investigation roles and a doc. 
Mharman
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@Earth
Correct. So vote Austin lol
AustinL0926
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Savant fakeclaimed doc in the Mahabharata game using one of Pie's questions. It's very possible the same thing is happening here.

Magistrate is not a guaranteed town role, role confirmation =/= affiliation confirmation
AustinL0926
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There's also no good reason for Mharman to self-protect. He was in POE, unlikely to be killed, and there were several people who had hinted at having a useful role, such as Lunatic.
Earth
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@Mharman
Whats more likely? A Dreamer and whatever Lunatic is, plus a doc, or three investigation roles? I legit am not sure, but your behavior makes me nervous.
AustinL0926
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Mharman is scum, partner is likely Savant but keep an open mind. I'll post more tomorrow and any attempt to hammer me before then should be taken as a scum claim.
AustinL0926
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Mharman is scum, partner is likely Savant but keep an open mind. I'll post more tomorrow and any attempt to hammer me before then should be taken as a scum claim.
Casey_Risk
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Votes:

Austin (2/4): Mharman, Savant
Mharman (1/4): Austin

Mharman
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Savant fakeclaimed doc in the Mahabharata game using one of Pie's questions. It's very possible the same thing is happening here
Fuck yeah I was hoping you’d make that argument because of how bad it is. There is a difference between claiming one of three investigative roles in the game, two of which are almost an exact match... and claiming LITERALLY THE ONLY PROTECTIVE ROLE IN THE GAME. We have investigative roles? You know what goes well with those, so that mafia doesn’t just kill them in the night? A protective role, and I am the only person here who has claimed one. 

You’d think that if I was making a fake claim because there were no doctors in the game, that there would still be some other protective role.

You have a chess player’s memory and can remember Mahabharata Mafia, but NOT the fact that when Savant fake claimed Doctor, town also had:
-An apportioner that can extend a player’s life
-A gambler that can obtain a commute

… TWO methods of denying mafia an NK! Where’s this game’s commuter?  Where is the apportioner in this game? Is there a jailkeeper in the house?

But we do have a tracker and a justice.

Magistrate is not a guaranteed town role, role confirmation =/= affiliation confirmationL
ROFL We were literally told Whiteflame was unvote-able today. This means that Savant was telling the truth about his PR in the game where mafia can easily fake claim PRs by checking with Casey before the game even starts. He’s not scum bro.

There's also no good reason for Mharman to self-protect. He was in POE, unlikely to be killed, and there were several people who had hinted at having a useful role, such as Lunatic.
You didn’t even read my whole post where I explained this… did you? The whole point of my role is to protect investigative roles. TLDR: I didn’t pick up on Lunatic’s investigative role, nor did I think it would do any good for me to protect you.
Mharman
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@AustinL0926
^^^
Mharman
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@AustinL0926
Mharman is scum, partner is likely Savant but keep an open mind.
We went from “savant magistrates Whiteflame so Mharman can claim there’s a redirect” and “game easy gg”… to “I’ll keep an open mind..”

It’s almost as if he’s now realizing how unbelievable his claims are now that he’s said them.
Mharman
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@Earth
Whats more likely? A Dreamer and whatever Lunatic is, plus a doc, or three investigation roles?
So three investigative roles and a doc vs. three investigative roles.

I’ll pick the option you didn’t provide: Justice, Tracker (because that’s what Lunatic is), and doc, as opposed to three investigative roles and with no doc.
Mharman
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@Earth
 I legit am not sure, but your behavior makes me nervous.
I am 75% confident this is true.