Conspiracy Theory Mafia [DP1]

I’m flying across country today, so I’ll be short on time to respond. Did catch up with the DP, though. 

In general, I’m not fond of these early stage efforts (using a limited number of claims) to suss out scum based on theme analysis, and RM has an extensive history of becoming fixated on a theme splits that don't pan out. I also agree with Pie that it is a bad idea to out as many people as possible in this DP. Frankly, I think we’ve already given scum more information than I’m comfortable with in regards to claims. It sounds as though RM at least is still fine with leaning on people for claims, which I don’t believe he has justified well even with his role.

For now at least, my reads remain the same. I’ll check in again after we land in Chicago.

So, enlighten us how we will find the theme split if you, Pie and Supa stay hidden.

The theme isn't important today.

It is extremely important. Especially as by forcing it today, scum can't conveniently tweak their claims to mask it later not nearly as easily anyway.

I don’t think we will find the theme split this early, regardless of how many of us claim. Chances are, we won’t figure out the theme split at all until we lynch scum. Focusing so much on theme analysis has led us astray far more often than it has helped us, especially if scum has fake claims available to them.

Anyway, about to take off, so I won’t be on for another 4 hours.

Astray from what, you fucking liar.

You want to throw around bullshit like Supadudz is that I'm distracting?

WHAT AM I DISTRACTING FROM?

what are you gonna do, pick flower petals and focus on the smell of people's pollen?

We are in a themed closed setup, either we focus on role and setup-balance dissection which is stupid to do before deaths occur and help us pivot around the revealed roles or we go for theme analysis.

Your constant bickering with Pie is what is taking away from the actual town engagement. You are baiting Pie to answer to you and this causes a cespool of post to form causing town to be disinterest in the constant arguing

I also voted you because your role is SOP and I do not believe that this role is balanced in a 7 person game

I also refuse to claim in DP1 or ask for any claims. It is pointless to do such to give scum any advantage they can possibly have in this game

#339 it has to be a very extreme case as to why they would need to be claiming btw (activity, scum slip, etc.)

Town gets the advantage, what advantage scum get from you claiming if you're town is next to 0 at this point, 4 people are outed, 3 yet to out, it's Town that wants to the outing to happen to crack the theme.

We accomplish nothing by analyzing a theme today because we only are making guesses to the theme, and not having actual evidence based on confirmed chars. Theme analyzing in DP1 does nothing but gives up a baseline for topics in DP2 and should not be basis for a lynch.

3 people are not out. This gives an advantage because these 3 people might not be PR's and you would have to guess and scum which is what. If you confirm every single player in DP1, scum will kill the person most likely to effect their chances of winning consistently

It is entirely balanced firstly because it can hurt town as much as hurt mafia, secondly, there is a vanilla claim, making it balanced in that sense of hitting a townie who isn't really hurt by it.

Plus, I am sure mafia is very powerful themselves, I predict this game is balances as many PRs vs mafia with 1 vanilla.

Man, mafia is about the lynches at day, not making the entire Town strat revolve around praying and hiding hoping that mafia don't roleblock or kill the correct role in the night phase.

I am done talking to you anyway. You are voting me and based on all your previous games, you never ever process logic or rethink once your mind is made up regardless of being town or scum. I will just talk to others.

No it doesn't it hurts town with a greater chance. We are in a 7 person. 5v2. There is likely 3 PR's and 2 vanillas on the town side and 1 mafia pr and 1 goon if balance does well. This means your odds of hitting town PR are 3/7 and hitting scum PR are 1/7 with a 3/7 gap to hit nothing it's as useless as it is effective, hence why it is a SOP claim. Also, you want to out everyone's role to avoid being wrong, but then you have no idea what mafia are lying. Then what is stopping mafia from claiming a PR to avoid you going for them if they see your town read on them. It doesn't make sense, it's a SOP role that wouldn't make sense in terms of balance in a 5v2 game where it does more bad than good statically. 

How can you predict this as a role powerful game when you have no idea how the setup is besides the alleged claims

You forget this:

I am 1 of the PRs.

We will have lynched a person by Night phase 1 (Town has a free mislynch surely as I agree it's very likely 5v2).

So by night phase 1, I am looking at 3v2 scenario outside of me or 4v1.

This is why I pushed PRs to out as PR so I can actively avoid a vanilla and make it either 2v2 or something assuming we failed to vote mafia DP1.

Because my role is only balanced if that is the case, surely. My role is only relevant even if the mafia is disgustingly OP, to make it worth me hitting them.

Would you predict the opposite?

There is no use engaging you any further, Supa.

I already know you will just tunnel from here on out. I refuse to talk to you until you tell your themed conspiracy theory and help us crack the split.

Can you help me make a case for supa being scum?

No. I believe he is Town as is.

jesus.

Crazy, I know, that I don't think everyone you want to be scum is scum.

Read behaviour, follow the thought pattern. Supa reads as silly townie to me.

If my reads are correct, it is plausibly a Pie Whiteflame team (yes both refused to claim).

Thematically, I would then presume Mharman did it like this:

Town - nutjob conspiracy theories (stuff associated with people who truly are off their rocker and that the right-wing are known for)

This would explain why the scum is hesitating, since the theme split is confusing even to them and even if they figured it out before this post of mine, it's not easy to pick out another batshit conspiracy theory that seems plausibly what Mharman would have picked.

See above.

Also, That2 please answer what I asked; explain the link between your themed theory and your game role.

another viable theme that has all the currently claimed as town is this:

It is the 'same idea' but much clearer about offense.

It's been a while since I updated this, so let me know if you see any mistakes.

today the vote will be pie or whiteflame please. Supa is town for me.

Alright, on my layover. I likely won't post again until later tonight, though depending on how exhausted I am, it may not be until tomorrow morning.

Frankly, I think RM's dichotomy here between me and Pie doesn't make sense. He's basing his decision entirely on information he doesn't have, since he cannot fathom the possibility that holding our claims in reserve is purposeful and positive for town. Nope, it's all scum because RM already knows the theme based on the limited information he currently has access to, and anyone who disagrees with his strategy is either anti-town or scum in his estimation, so just vote them out, right? It's all the stranger for him to argue that scum is benefitting from a delay at this point, since there are only three people who remain without claims, which means the chance of any of them being CC'd at this stage is minimal.

We shouldn't be basing any decisions at this point on theme splits. Period. RM himself, who seems so confident in his ability to determine what that split is, has presented two entirely distinct theme splits on this page alone. Even if he's right on the money with one of them, there's a more than decent probability that Mharman gave scum fake claims that would confound his theories. Hell, Mharman could have just told them straight up what the theme split is, giving them every opportunity to ensure that accurate theme split analysis places them as obvious town. Neither of these would be firsts.

As far as I'm concerned, this comes down to behaviors. RM has jumped back and forth from considering behaviors to being more focused on theme splits, often leaving behind any reasoning on the former to push the latter (e.g. his going from pointing out that I'm behaviorally consistent with town to arguing that I'm a prime suspect who needs to full claim this DP). I'd take the time to list my views again of behaviors that look suspect to me, but I really don't have much time before the next leg of my flight. I posted plenty in my reads and in response to That2.

At this point, it's up to the rest of you because RM is clearly dedicated at this point. If you really feel it's necessary to out one of us, then put us at L-1. I think that would be a mistake and I've been saying that for much of this game, but RM and Pie have been directing a lot of the discussion in this DP and there's been very little cohesiveness behind any mode of action here. Seriously, I'd rather people worked to out us than just allow this rambling to continue (though, again, I think that would be a mistake), especially given how close we are to the end of the DP. That being said, it's up to you all to make that decision. RM isn't going to change his mind at this stage and Supa may or may not, but each of you can.