The Resistance - Mission Two

Author: Discipulus_Didicit

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#181
ILikePie5
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@Vader
I am not a fan of this roster sign up. I don't like how Pie instant voted yes versus analyzing who else was in the roster. 
Did you even read the DP?

I clearly explained why RM should be on it. I’m Resistance so I should be on it. You Oro and WF have one spy. 1/3 chance. I have grievances against you as I mentioned before. That leaves WF and Oro who are both null at the moment to me. Either is fine. I also mentioned that I’d be willing to accept you on the team because my top townread RM thinks you’re town.
#182
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I think we should choose 3 out of the 4 non-1st rounders in this round and if no sab than all 4 non-1st rounders in the third.
I need more details. Say Pie, Oro, WF go M2 and it’s a Sabotage. Who goes next? Certainly Supa, but who are the next 3 people. Cause there are 3 slots and 5 people to choose from. Only 1/2 saboteurs need to be on the Mission to succeed. The odds are horrible. Say you put me on it cause I’m most townread. Still 2 slots with 4 people to choose from. Odds are horrible.

Say there’s a resistance play. If we go Pie, Oro, WF, Supa, next there’s certainly gonna be a Spy play and we won’t know who did it out of the 4. Then we have to choose 3 people. If we choose the same three as R2 we still risk losing with a sabotage. Odds are horrible.

Honestly, if there's sab round 2 I don't think there's much hope for us in any case. 
#183
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@ILikePie5
I think it is like this.

Earth and WF is the team (the latter has had a lot of contradictory logic in when and why he predicts sabs to fake-pass missions amongst other things) 

^ this adds up because of a few reasons:

  1. Supadudz didn't vote yes to Earth and me, I also abstained and Earth couldn't vote as he defaulted to 'yes'. Whiteflame votes on it and while it does make sense for him to do as resistance, it also makes me begin to wonder why the same guy who was so 'yeah whatever' there and active with voting is now a very hesitant guy who had to be coaxed by me to vote no to a team he should almost be 100% sure had spy on it (the Oro-suggested team).
  2. Earth voting no to the first team can indeed mean his partner is Supadudz. Sure, that totally works but what if it was different? What if he had agreed to hammer 'no' there for a lot of trickery, as suggested by Whiteflame to him (Disc said the spies have their own chat in the thread before this game). The idea was that either we interpret it as him disliking it due to Supadudz or him moving it along with wifom so that Oromagi could set up a team with a sab anyway (himself) if Oro and Earth are the perceived team. This went wrong when Oromagi blindsided them by leaving Whiteflame out of the team.
  3. Suddenly, Whiteflame went from quiet and laidback to full throttle active... Yet was stalling his vote? When I eventually asked him why despite his newfound activity level, he'd failed to vote no to the team, he votes no.
  4. So... Pie then votes no and Earth hammers. Pie either really did or alternatively pretends not to notice that it's hammered and changes to yes. However, Whiteflame never calls Pie out on that or questions it, which given how observant WF is, seems odd to me as he did bolden it. Furthermore, when I call him out on his bio having very vague references to fleeing where the rest of our bios had more specific in-between activity laid out and the fact that he was born into some level of aristocracy whereas the rest of us seem either poor or in Pie's case that we still have to grift to last, he says nothing?
  5. Supa easily is the spy partner of Earth, it's just that everything about Earth and WF firstly barely interacting between each other and secondly seeming to make very little sense with their moves, leads me to believe the team is Earth and WF

#184
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@Vader
I am not a fan of this roster sign up. I don't like how Pie instant voted yes versus analyzing who else was in the roster. 
Which roster sign up would you be or have been a fan of as so far you weren't even a fan of a team you yourself were on?
#185
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@oromagi
Honestly, if there's sab round 2 I don't think there's much hope for us in any case.  
In your scenarios, yes. In mine if there is a sabotage it’s practically over
#186
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Honestly, if there's sab round 2 I don't think there's much hope for us in any case.  
In your scenarios, yes. In mine if there is a sabotage it’s practically over
Of course, you realize this reads as an admission that you are a spy
#187
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@oromagi
No it doesn't, first of all Pie never ever would slip like that if he was a spy.

Secondly, he has explained why based on the reads he's most sure of that if this is sabbed he will conclude you and Earth are the team, I can link you to the posts where this is blatant.
#188
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No it doesn't, first of all Pie never ever would slip like that if he was a spy.
Read it again.  I say "Honestly, if there's sab round 2 I don't think there's much hope for us in any case. "

Pie responds: "In your scenarios, yes." (My scenarios being Resistance scenarios.  If Pie thought I was a spy he would not agree that a second sab in Round2 would mean no hope for my side - in fact, I would be in good shape if I was a spy with two sabs, right?  Therefore, Pie does not think I'm a spy and only a spy would think so with confidence at this point in the game.) Then Pie says, "In mine if there is a sabotage it’s practically over" meaning his outcomes are different from mine but not hopeless as I say, only "practically over" which is good news from a Spy's prospective and bad news from a Res perspective.  If Pie were Res he would not be disagreeing with my pretty straightforward conclusion.  

Secondly, he has explained why based on the reads he's most sure of that if this is sabbed he will conclude you and Earth are the team, I can link you to the posts where this is blatant.
He has just admitted that he knows I'm no spy.  I have no doubt he would support such a conclusion as correct spy strategy.

I now read Pie as the most likely spy in this game and will vote against any team that includes him until shown evidence contradicting this read.  Vote: NO on current proposal.
#189
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@RationalMadman
Also, why are you defending Pie?  What is your investment in him?
#190
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@oromagi
you've pretty much doomed us but alright.

Now we directly have to guess which of WF or Supa is resistance.
#191
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@oromagi
He is blatantly resistance and you attacked one of the most ridiculous things you could.

He said that for him 'it's over' this has nothing to do with if he's a spy.

It's over meant he would believe he'd cracked it, which is exactly the logic he revealed earlier. You voting no has doomed us I urge you to change to yes, I really really urge you this is the moment the entire game depends on.
#192
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Right now- you and Pie are looking like the most likely Spy team.
#193
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@oromagi
VOTE YES AND I PROMISE YOU if it comes with a 'fail' result, I will take full responsibility. 
#194
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@RationalMadman
Honestly, think what you want, but you're wrong here and the logic you're using doesn't fully track.

On the first point, I explained why my no vote was obvious when I responded to you in post #105. I didn't require any coaxing from you to do it, I just didn't feel the need to post a vote immediately and explained why.

On the second, I don't understand this whole point about Oro somehow "blindsiding" a theoretical Spy team of Earth and me. Oro hadn't suggested any agreement or disagreement with your line of reasoning against me before Mission One, which already led me to believe that he had his suspicions. In fact, several of you had laid out suspicions against me prior to this, so I would have been surprised to have been included on most, let alone all, of the lists for this mission.

On the third, I wouldn't call anything I've been doing as "full throttle active" - I laid out my thoughts in bigger posts and provided a small set of responses where I felt they were warranted. And, as I said above, I had my reasons for waiting to vote no. You've been watching closely to see how various people respond to given scenarios. So have I.

On the fourth, I had already given my perspective on Pie before he tried to shift his vote. Based on his behavioral responses before this, I felt no need to question why he tried to do this. But this one seems exceptionally odd for you to point out. Feel free to look back at my history with mafia. I tend to be more nit-picky about behaviors like this when I'm scum. Also, I did respond to your point about my bio here. It sounds like you're nit-picking small differences in our bios as a basis for establishing me as a Spy, which would be fine if not for the fact that you're just inferring what Disc would do with the cover stories he provides to the Spies, i.e. that he would build in distinctions that would make them clearly different from those given to Resistance members. I've made that mistake before in Mafia, scrutinizing specific information to the point where I'm scrutinizing the profiles to the point that I feel absolutely certain that I see a flaw that gives someone away. I've been wrong more often than not. If you want to make it here, be my guest.

On the fifth, I don't know what "moves" you think I'm making "very little sense" with, or why the lack of interaction sets me apart when I was hardly the only one to leave him alone during DP1.


But hey, you've already built a narrative and you clearly spent time on it. If you want to get screwed over by this assessment during Mission 3 when we have to pick all the Resistance members or we guarantee sabotage, be my guest. We're probably already in a bad way and I don't share your relative certainty that Oro is Resistance. Maybe I'll end up being wrong, too.

Regardless, I think at this point we need to do as much as possible to ferret out the second Spy, and I think this team could provide us with that information. What's more, if I'm right that it's Oro and he sabotages, then I'll be confirmed to be Resistance and we can move into the next phase with some solid information. Hence, I vote yes to the current team setup.
#195
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@oromagi
Please think, just think, about why Pie said the thing you read as a slip.

What do you think 'over' meant? Why would he really mean he just was a spy needing one more 'fail' to win? Do you really think that's how he meant it?!
#196
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@whiteflame
On the fifth, I don't know what "moves" you think I'm making "very little sense" with, or why the lack of interaction sets me apart when I was hardly the only one to leave him alone during DP1.
Your logic throughout the game has been subpar, primarily with what you think spies will do with active vs passive moments. The most sensible reason, as a spy, for you to be pro-non-sab in outward writing is so that when it happens, you can say you wouldn't do it.

If you are resistance, I just think you don't approach the game aggressively enough or realise that one fail vs one success is worth more than long-term deception especially in a first game on the site without previous metas or things.
#197
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@whiteflame
On the second, I don't understand this whole point about Oro somehow "blindsiding" a theoretical Spy team of Earth and me. Oro hadn't suggested any agreement or disagreement with your line of reasoning against me before Mission One, which already led me to believe that he had his suspicions. In fact, several of you had laid out suspicions against me prior to this, so I would have been surprised to have been included on most, let alone all, of the lists for this mission.
Soyou would not advise Earth to hammer 'no' on the first team for WIFOM purposes?

Why not? Even I would do that if I were Earth's partner in your shoes.
#198
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@whiteflame
I am not looking for active covering-up by spies.

My theory is that Disc himself will have subconsciously been sloppier with the Spy's bio and only wanted to avoid blatant discrepancies.

Pie's bio is the only non-orphan-type storyline, this seems so blatant of a sore thumb that I think it can't be the spy one.

Your one, however, has precisely the kind of monotony and over-similarity to other's, especially mine, that it feels like Disc wrote it after writing the others and just tried to make it fit.
#199
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@RationalMadman
Your logic throughout the game has been subpar, primarily with what you think spies will do with active vs passive moments. The most sensible reason, as a spy, for you to be pro-non-sab in outward writing is so that when it happens, you can say you wouldn't do it.

If you are resistance, I just think you don't approach the game aggressively enough or realise that one fail vs one success is worth more than long-term deception especially in a first game on the site without previous metas or things.
A) I'm still getting used to the game. This is pretty similar to the kind of play I used when I started with Mafia, and it comes from hesitancy and still trying to understand how best to play this one.

B) You can say it's subpar, I really don't care. I've got my own thoughts on how the Spies should behave depending on the circumstances. They haven't so far, and they likely won't going forward. Doesn't mean I'm wrong, it just means I don't think the same way they do. The reasoning you're giving for why that makes me a likely spy is entirely WIFOM.

Soyou would not advise Earth to hammer 'no' on the first team for WIFOM purposes?

Why not? Even I would do that if I were Earth's partner in your shoes.
I really don't understand what you're getting at here. You're assuming how I would coach Earth if I was his partner, more WIFOM. Again, how you would behave doesn't indicate how I would, but I didn't speak to Earth and I honestly hadn't considered how I'd coach him, so it's interesting that you've thought about this so much.

I am not looking for active covering-up by spies.

My theory is that Disc himself will have subconsciously been sloppier with the Spy's bio and only wanted to avoid blatant discrepancies.

Pie's bio is the only non-orphan-type storyline, this seems so blatant of a sore thumb that I think it can't be the spy one.

Your one, however, has precisely the kind of monotony and over-similarity to other's, especially mine, that it feels like Disc wrote it after writing the others and just tried to make it fit.
Yes, and part of my point was that examining where the mod could have been sloppy is a problem. I've made that mistake before, too. You don't know where, if anywhere, Disc would have placed discrepancies in our bios. By scrutinizing what he might have done and where, I think you're just getting lost in the weeds.
#200
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@whiteflame
I didn't speak to Earth and I honestly hadn't considered how I'd coach him, so it's interesting that you've thought about this so much.
How else does one get reads in a game other than to wonder what they'd say and do in the other's shoes vs what the other says and does?

I don't have a norm of you in resistance games to hold you against.
#201
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@oromagi
Of course, you realize this reads as an admission that you are a spy
No it means if there is a sabotage the game is solved and resistance wins lol
#202
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@Vader
@whiteflame
Notice how Oromagi directly aligns with Earth and policies

#203
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@RationalMadman
How else does one get reads in a game other than to wonder what they'd say and do in the other's shoes vs what the other says and does?

I don't have a norm of you in resistance games to hold you against.
Dude, you're welcome to do the WIFOM thing as much as you want and claim what my choices in this game have been motivated by. I think my choices speak for themselves and when this game does end (or when I'm revealed as Resistance during the game, as the case may be), you'll find out that you've been digging too deep into possible motivations for my choices. And, hell, I'm giving you the opportunity to show how insightful you've been by voting "Yes" on your team, despite suspecting that this, too, will end in a sabotage. So I'm giving your theories a chance despite presenting different ones and clearly knowing that you are wrong about me. Let's leave it at that.
#204
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@ILikePie5
Oromagi as scum here wouldn't vote no to this or be this irritated by the team. I also would like to remind you where and when Earth hammered no both times.

Earth and Oro is a team that doesn't add up if we consider Earth randomly hammering no to Oro's own team suggestion with me following and saying I wouldn't add Oro to my team.
#205
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@whiteflame
If I am wrong about you, do you firmly believe Supa is a spy then?
#206
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suggestion with me following and saying I
me following as team leader*
#207
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@RationalMadman
I've already provided what I believe to be the likeliest Spy team of Earth and Oro, though Supa would rank close second to Oro.
#208
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@whiteflame
We’re on the same side for this round at least
#209
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@whiteflame
That is the single least likeliest spy team at this point considering where and when Earth hammered 'no' as well as how Oromagi has behaved to this team suggestion.

Why do you not agree?
#210
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@RationalMadman
Oromagi as scum here wouldn't vote no to this or be this irritated by the team. I also would like to remind you where and when Earth hammered no both times.

Earth and Oro is a team that doesn't add up if we consider Earth randomly hammering no to Oro's own team suggestion with me following and saying I wouldn't add Oro to my team.

Oro’s affiliation is irrelevant as I explained to WF. If he plays a Spy action he’s screwed. He’s essentially forced to play resistance and we get a free resistance.