-->
@Earth
Vote yes so we can get the game moving Spy scum
The Resistance - Mission Two
Posts
Read-only
Total:
271
-->
@Vader
@whiteflame
@oromagi
Vote yes let’s get on with this
-->
@ILikePie5
why are you rushing it
-->
@RationalMadman
Alright, I'll try to lay out my thoughts as best I can.
I don't care so much if you leave me off the team at this point. Based on my re-read-through of this thread and the previous one, it's pretty clear that Earth is the Spy, so I'm good with having RM on the team. So long as that's true, we have some wiggle room in the other selections (until the next Mission, where we'll have to select 4 people), so I'm fine being left out.
In that respect, among the 4 people who weren't on the first Mission, Pie seems the safest, I agree. My concern, then, is with the selection of Oro over Supa. I'm unclear on why that particular decision was made. RM, you've made clear why you're not picking me, but especially given Supa's relative absence compared to pretty much everyone else in this game, I have a hard time believing that he was at all involved in the decision to sabotage Mission 1, given that that happened so rapidly. It's possible that Earth made the decision by himself, but at least that's a reason why Supa stands out as the lesser of the two (Oro and Supa) in terms of likelihood to me.
-->
@RationalMadman
What do you want to talk about?
-->
@whiteflame
Think of it this way. Even if Oro is a Spy, if he plays a Spy card, he’s toast. We practically confirm that he’s a Spy. We’ll likely get a Resistance play here.
-->
@ILikePie5
Valid point. I guess the issue here is more with who we're going to choose for the next round than for this one. Like I said, I suspect that even if there is a Spy in this one, they will not sabotage this round. Whoever the other Spy is, they have more to gain by staying quiet this round than they do by sabotaging due to PoE alone.
Anyway, I'd like to at least get RM's take on why he's favoring Oro over Supa before I vote yes, but you can consider me locked in as a yes vote at the moment.
Think of it this way. Even if Oro is a Spy, if he plays a Spy card, he’s toast. We practically confirm that he’s a Spy. We’ll likely get a Resistance play here.
But that's because you've convinced yourself that Earth is the spy when objectively RM is the more likely of the two. I suffer from no such conviction and I don't understand yours.
We started this round convinced that because TEAM earth/RM sab'd, we would not include either in the second round. This still seems sensible- adding either obscures second round results- if sab'd, we almost certainly blame the first rounder whether accurate or not, if not sab'd we've done nothing to separate out the first round spy. I think we should choose 3 out of the 4 non-1st rounders in this round and if no sab than all 4 non-1st rounders in the third.
I guess that makes me a no vote on any first rounders in any second round team
-->
@oromagi
But that's because you've convinced yourself that Earth is the spy when objectively RM is the more likely of the two. I suffer from no such conviction and I don't understand yours.
That is absurdly false. Just read my interactions with Earth. It becomes obvious that he’s the Spy just based on what he said and when he said. The only way you reject this is if you believe both RM and Earth are spies.
-->
@ILikePie5
Just read my interactions with Earth. It becomes obvious that he’s the Spy just based on what he said and when he said.
My point stands proved: you've convinced yourself that Earth is the spy when objectively RM is the more likely of the two.
-->
@whiteflame
Valid point. I guess the issue here is more with who we're going to choose for the next round than for this one. Like I said, I suspect that even if there is a Spy in this one, they will not sabotage this round. Whoever the other Spy is, they have more to gain by staying quiet this round than they do by sabotaging due to PoE alone.
I may have a strategy for that as well, which I will divulge later. It’s really simple tbh
-->
@oromagi
My point stands proved: you've convinced yourself that Earth is the spy when objectively RM is the more likely of the two.
Why is RM “objectively” more likely to be Spy? Just cause he wanted to be on the mission?
Did you read who Earth didn’t want on a mission? Cause objectively that gains better reads than wanting to be on the mission
-->
@Vader
Where u at
-->
@ILikePie5
-->@oromagiMy point stands proved: you've convinced yourself that Earth is the spy when objectively RM is the more likely of the two.Why is RM “objectively” more likely to be Spy? Just cause he wanted to be on the mission?
Yes, and that Earth didn't. I don't think of Earth as a particularly engaged player but the spies obviously desperately want to be on that first mission and that describes RM not Earth.
I'm not talking certainties, I see no justification for certainties- just relative probabilities.
Did you read who Earth didn’t want on a mission?
You and RM- makes sense from Earth's perspective
-->
@oromagi
The fact you are so resistant to this team makes me very happy about having you on the team, I feel like you wouldn't ever do this as an act.
As for Pie, the reason I am quite sure he's resistance is just that aside from early nonsense from him because (he claims) he was tired during mission one thread, he's been very sensible, contributive and his bio has things in it that don't look like mimickery to me but which match the format of my own, very well, in terms of what about his bio is mentioned.
I also like that Pie voted no to the previous team, whether or not he switched to yes after Earth, because from his perspective he had begun to change his mind to want me on the team and that is an extremely sensible reason (he was on the team, he really didn't have to do that)
This all adds up to be an excellent team-choice to me.
I will take the blame if this mission fails. I accept full loss. I am that sure that this is a 3-res team now.
The fact you are so resistant to this team makes me very happy about having you on the team,
pun unintended actually LOL, maybe it's a psychological thing when i think about the game and type.
-->
@oromagi
Yes, and that Earth didn't. I don't think of Earth as a particularly engaged player but the spies obviously desperately want to be on that first mission and that describes RM not Earth.
Earth put himself on the team.
-->
@oromagi
You and RM- makes sense from Earth's perspective
This was in R1 before the decision was even made…
-->
@whiteflame
Valid point. I guess the issue here is more with who we're going to choose for the next round than for this one. Like I said, I suspect that even if there is a Spy in this one, they will not sabotage this round. Whoever the other Spy is, they have more to gain by staying quiet this round than they do by sabotaging due to PoE alone.
If I was spy, I'd sab this Round.
If I was Pie or Oro, I'd even more so sab this Round.
Why? RM gets blamed. It is perfection.
However, I will answer your next question to justify why I'm willing to take that risk.
Anyway, I'd like to at least get RM's take on why he's favoring Oro over Supa before I vote yes, but you can consider me locked in as a yes vote at the moment.
Earth hammering no to both teams is not consecutive WIFOM, there was most definitely one of the two teams he genuinely didn't want because his partner was outside it.
The reason I am sure of this is just Earth seems to be a minimalist player, both during this and previously in other games. If he deceives (as scum) and does things it's rarely for a very elaborate plan and more for simpler deception. I don't have specific games to 'showcase minimalism' because he is like this every game and is even more like this when scum. Just check his previous posts, he basically sticks to the forum games section.
My theory is that either he genuinely is Supa's partner or alternatively is yours. He voted no to the first either because he didn't want Supa, or wanted you.
If Oro had been his partner, not only was Oro on both teams but I explicitly had stated that I was between Supa and you for who I wanted on my team if it ended up voted no (with Pie on the team as I hard res-read him or 'townread' whatever).
Following this, Earth votes no.
I do not think he'd ever confidently do that with Oro as his partner, I do think he could do that if he's with Pie but Pie just screams resistance to me, that's just a hard vibe-read.
-->
@RationalMadman
-->@oromagiYes, and that Earth didn't. I don't think of Earth as a particularly engaged player but the spies obviously desperately want to be on that first mission and that describes RM not Earth.Earth put himself on the team.
As team leader ought to have done and I advised him to do but he didn't campaign for that choice as you did. That makes you weigh heavier in the probabilities.
-->
@Earth
@Vader
@whiteflame
@ILikePie5
@oromagi
Most of you have been doing so up to this point but let's make it an official rule, please bold all votes so that I can distinguish between people actually placing yes/no votes and talking about placing yes/no votes.
-->
@oromagi
I'm sorry but why would a Resistance team leader hesitate to put themselves on the team?
The hesitance is for show.
Earth didn't even talk about his bio, I didn't mention it because I couldn't care less what he says is in his bio as I know he's a spy.
Earth has not revealed any reads, justify either no-hammer and is sitting there near-trolling because he has done his job, so to speak and sab'd, he just hopes his partner can towntell. That's how Earth plays as scum in mafia very often, just minimalistic nonsense, saying just enough to not be called a lurker and just solid enough to not be called a troll.
That's how Earth plays as scum in mafia very often, just minimalistic nonsense, saying just enough to not be called a lurker and just solid enough to not be called a troll.
Unfortunately, that is also how Earth plays town so such reads do us no good.'
Christmas is upon me and I my participation is likely to be sketchy for the next few days.
-->
@oromagi
What’s the future for your selections? Spell it out for me. How do we proceed with you’re selections?
-->
@ILikePie5
POST #158
Mission: Jailbreak
Mission Leader: RationalMadman
Mission team: ILikePie5, oromagi, and RationalMadman
Yes votes: ILikePie5 (1/3)
No votes: none yet (0/3)
Not voting: Earth, oromagi, SupaDudz, and Whiteflame
-->
@oromagi
Vote yes it will pay off
-->
@oromagi
I think we should choose 3 out of the 4 non-1st rounders in this round and if no sab than all 4 non-1st rounders in the third.
I need more details. Say Pie, Oro, WF go M2 and it’s a Sabotage. Who goes next? Certainly Supa, but who are the next 3 people. Cause there are 3 slots and 5 people to choose from. Only 1/2 saboteurs need to be on the Mission to succeed. The odds are horrible. Say you put me on it cause I’m most townread. Still 2 slots with 4 people to choose from. Odds are horrible.
Say there’s a resistance play. If we go Pie, Oro, WF, Supa, next there’s certainly gonna be a Spy play and we won’t know who did it out of the 4. Then we have to choose 3 people. If we choose the same three as R2 we still risk losing with a sabotage. Odds are horrible.
-->
@ILikePie5
He's advocating for (from his perspective if he's resistance) 2/3 probability of failure.
Unfortunately, to me, that is 3/4 chance of failure.
From my perspective, me on the team instantly takes 3/4 and makes it 2/4.
In reality it's actually 7/12 not 6/12 probability because my first pick of teammate is 1/4 and the second is 1/3 which is 3/12 + 4/12 and means in true game theory, no matter which methodology I run along this decision is still tough.
However, I won't go into the details of game theory and how this works.
Basically this situation we're in now, due to the first failing, is only at all able to remotely be sitting around half if I ignore that I'm framed and push myself onto the team.
I am very grateful for being team leader #4 as I feel I am in the perfect position after the 2 no-votes to neither need to cower away from pushing myself onto the team nor am I so late that I need to be too terrified of a no-vote as one of the next 2 is resistance for sure and is a hope.
I really would appreciate this passing though. I really think I've got a solid team here and that next round we repeat it after this succeeds and fourth round we keep the 3, add anyone and it's autowin because it needs 2 no's to fail (it's a special Round).
I am not a fan of this roster sign up. I don't like how Pie instant voted yes versus analyzing who else was in the roster.