Gunplay Mafia DP1

Author: Mharman
Mafia Game
DP1
Gunplay Mafia

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#61
Casey_Risk
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@Savant
So voting based on "buddy" behavior is basically shooting in the dark as far as I'm concerned.
Hard buddying is a scumtell, though I will say that I don't see Vader as doing that right now. Behaviorally speaking, he leans town for me. Mostly just a gutread, but also his claim makes sense to me. I don't think I've ever actually seen scum SOP claim something like that before. 
#62
Casey_Risk
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@Savant
@WyIted
Every other player starts with 75% odds of being town from my perspective (and yours, if you are town). Even if GP is a bit scummy, his odds of being town could still be over 50%, and even if he's a good lynch by the end of the day phase, I'd still like to observe behavior a bit more.
I don't think it's helpful to think of the game in terms of percentages like this. In the end, you just have to look at claims and behavior and think, does this make sense to me? Though I will agree that there's no need to rush through this DP when not everyone has even posted yet. And for that reason, I will

Unvote 

VTL Wylted 

For activity. But my fos remains on GP. 
#63
AustinL0926
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hi everyone

Thoughts so far:

-Vader's claim makes sense as a SOP, justification lines up very well, and we'll probably find out sooner or later if it's real based on the presence of a tracker/watcher. Solid TL.

-WF feels ok - I think after last game, I've gotten a slightly better handle on his scum meta, so hopefully I should be able to read him better.

-I like GP's claim - because at a surface level, Rolecop tends to be a pretty scummy claim, so I expect if he was fakeclaiming and planned to do so before the game started, he would think of something better. That aside, from a pure PM analysis/mod psyche pov, the part about rolecop specifically not showing alignments makes sense to include and is also a variant of rolecop that I feel Mharman would be more likely to do, since he often makes roles non-standard.

-Savant's note on GP's claim makes sense and I think it shows a towny perspective (i.e. being uninformed of GP's alignment, since it's a very specific thing to shade). That being said, I can say from experience that many mods play fast and loose with justifications and I wouldn't read too much into it.

-I don't like Casey's shade and vote. It's basically calling Role Cop a scummy role without considering the context of GP's claim, and I really struggle to see how a townie's first reaction is to claim that GP didn't describe his paraphrasing correctly when at best, if true, is not really relevant to alignment. Also, Casey pushing GP for alleged anti-town behavior in the form of wanting to use his role by not voting incorrectly feels like they're just taking the path of least resistance (i.e. not really thinking about GP's alignment, more just blindly pushing him).

-That aside, Casey feels different than last town game - they generally feel like they have a more narrow focus and less sort of free with their posting.

-I like Vader's analysis.

-Luna feels like he's just trying to get at low-hanging fruit, something that pings me by default.

-Savant's general caution reads as very townie - regardless of the alignments of any of the players he's talking about, discouraging early tunnels is pro-town behavior.

#64
AustinL0926
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Voting players for activity while actively sussing others is classically scummy btw

VTL Casey
#65
Savant
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@Casey_Risk
I don't think it's helpful to think of the game in terms of percentages like this.
Then let me put it another way: we've never, as far as I can recall, lynched scum day phase 1 because of a single scum tell. We've lynched a lot of townies though.

Though I will agree that there's no need to rush through this DP when not everyone has even posted yet.
That's really all I'm saying.
#66
AustinL0926
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Reads

Town:

Vader

Lean town:

Savant
Wylted (didn't mention him, but I thought him interjecting with a mechanics post without really bothering to engage with the game is generally above >rand town behavior)
Pie (liked his perspective on the GP/Casey stuff, well-reasoend)

Slight town:

GP
WF

Slight scum:

Luna

Lean scum:

Casey

#67
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Most confident on Vader and Savant rn as being town. Vader for claim and behavior, Savant for behavior that I find very towny in regard to perspective.

Wylted is low-confidence, it's a sample size of one post but it is pretty towny.

Pie's vibes feel good but again, need to see more there.

Explained on GP, while WF is there just because he hasn't done anything wrong per se

Luna feels vaguely scummy but could just be lazy town

Casey is actively scummy off behavior, meta, and the "pushing an easy target after other players reacted badly to my push on another player" tell
#68
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@Savant
I know I started the GP train, but I don't want to tunnel too much on one player for the entire day phase, especially this early. Town-on-town violence screwed us over in the last game. Every other player starts with 75% odds of being town from my perspective (and yours, if you are town). Even if GP is a bit scummy, his odds of being town could still be over 50%, and even if he's a good lynch by the end of the day phase, I'd still like to observe behavior a bit more.
You won't get much in terms of behavior with GP, but as to the rest, I haven't even voted him. If a better option arises thats fine, but I don't think we neccesarily need more claims if we are more or less fine with GP. Which I am. 

If you are town, the odds of guessing a scum team in the first day phase are just over 7%. Even if they have some information to base the guess on, I'd be surprised if a town player could guess the scum team with over 10% accuracy day 1. I've rarely seen anyone pick out a scum team correctly when neither scum had been confirmed. So voting based on "buddy" behavior is basically shooting in the dark as far as I'm concerned.
Its sufficient reason to suspect him, and its mostly contingent on greyparrot being scum anyway. But its definitely a trend if you go back and look at past supa games. I think he's good as mafia in other regards but he does tend to blatantly scum buddy. 
#69
Vader
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Aight my activity has been on and off because I'm catching up with school work and I've been doing a lot of stuff on the marketing side of the Sports app because of the Luka Doncic trade so my activity has windled but I am going to catch up a bit
#70
Lunatic
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@AustinL0926
-Luna feels like he's just trying to get at low-hanging fruit, something that pings me by default.
Oddly enough, if you think that is a scum tell that is interesting considering the last two games I was scum in I didn't join any of the mislynch wagons. The only mislynch I was on last game was the quick hammer. And I actually used "not being on the wagon" as a wifom reason for me being town in the game prior where I was scum. So if you think I am pursuing low hanging fruit, you at least have to admit this isn't something I "do" as mafia. And with GP, I don't really see any reason to over analyze. He tends to do this as scum, and it has ended extremely bad and fast for him in the past when he does. I see this as another one of those situations. I think casey has sufficient reason for pushing GP, and its true role cop is rarely a town sided role. I was literally just a scum role cop. 
#71
Vader
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@Lunatic
Normally when I'm scum I tend to not blindly buddy, maybe in past games but recently not as much.

Anyway, it just doesn't seem right for Casey as described "buttons" to go off right away. Even with the chatgpt and all that, is it really that big of a deal that it is scum/town indicative? Idk. It also doesn't align with Casey's scum play from what I have seen in the past. I don't want to read too hard into it and assume Executioner/Joker, but it is just something to be pointed out

As for Grey, I don't understand why we are all so eager to jump to a lynch right now. The DP just started.
#72
Greyparrot
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@AustinL0926
Lean town: Luna, WF, Casey.
Slight town: Pie, Savant.
Slight scum: Wylted.
Lean scum: Austin

These are my DP1 reads so far
#73
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Vader: null
#74
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@Savant
Then let me put it another way: we've never, as far as I can recall, lynched scum day phase 1 because of a single scum tell.
Maybe not, but DP1 you have to glean whatever behavioral information you can and base your decisions on that. GP seemed scummy to me off the bat, that's why I voted for him. Maybe I was too hasty, but that whole ChatGPT thing threw me off. Does anyone here actually believe he paraphrased a paraphrase? That claim is just bizarre and makes no sense to me. 
#75
Casey_Risk
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I'm going to visit family so I'll be inactive for a while, will respond more later. For now, Austin's entry leans town to me. 
#76
Vader
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Honestly though, I think Casey's play has been so different from what I've seen her as scum and town that I kind of have to put her in my town pile.
#77
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@AustinL0926
@Casey_Risk
I don't like Casey's shade and vote. It's basically calling Role Cop a scummy role without considering the context of GP's claim,
Am I the only one assuming that Casey is likely town and the reaction is because some part of her role likely makes GP scum.  Let me ask her

Casey,

Does your role mechanically make GPs role being town less likely?

Voting players for activity while actively sussing others is classically scummy btw
She has to develop more than one read bro.

#78
WyIted
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On reread Casey does state her role mechanically makes GPs less likely so I think we can trust her

VTL GP
#79
ILikePie5
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I’m comfortable getting a claim from Casey and then determining what we want to do. GP’s behavior is notably different, but so is Casey’s. 3 claims is more than sufficient for today.

I’ll also note that we don’t know if Mharman gave fake claims and/or roles cause he’s a jerk, so we shouldn’t automatically trust any claims. If Gravedigger is a fake claim and a Tracker/Watcher does out themselves, it’s borderline bastard imo.

Anyways, if Supa is town, and we get confirmation of a Tracker/Watcher, scum probably have a Ninja. Otherwise the Gravedigger is basically useless. Furthermore, considering the Town Strongman mechanic, it’s also likely that scum have manipulation roles like Redirector, Bus Driver, etc. A roleblocker is also a likelihood.
#80
ILikePie5
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@WyIted
@Casey_Risk
On reread Casey does state her role mechanically makes GPs less likely so I think we can trust her

VTL GP
0
If Casey is implying this, then they should out immediately cause scum already know at this point. If Casey is like a Cop or something, that’s a pretty direct CC, and we just have to have Casey hammer Greyparrot and pray we have a protective role
#81
whiteflame
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Been running around a lot today, but I’ll catch up and post later this afternoon.
#82
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@ILikePie5
Bruh
#83
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@WyIted
On reread Casey does state her role mechanically makes GPs less likely
In context, not really: "As a town role, it's typically used in games where there are many roles which could easily belong to either side, such as Jailkeeper or Rolestopper. Tough to say whether this is that kind of game yet, though based on my own role, I'm not convinced."

Casey isn't saying their role doesn't work with GP's, just that their role doesn't make GP's role more likely.
#84
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Alright, some reads. A lot of this is going to focus on the ways people have responded to the sus on GP, since I think that is somewhat telling.

1. Greyparrot

I've made my opinion clear on his case. I believe there could be a town Role Cop, but there are just a lot of niggling doubts about how he's presented it, as well as behaviors that don't match what I would expect from town GP. Right now, he's my only scumlean.

2. Pie

I like Pie's breakdown of the early information in this game, and of Vader's role in particular. I don't agree that Casey's being too aggressive (in general, I think people are jumping on Casey for putting pressure on GP for reasons I don't understand, but I'll get to that), though I like how Pie has shifted to focusing on Casey's claim as a potential basis for GP's lynch, even if I'm a little hesitant to push for it. Lean town.

3. Casey

I'll admit that it helps that I agree with Casey in his sus on GP, but I also just don't understand the turn on Casey as a result of their vote. It's a bit more aggressive than normal, but the VTL comes off more as a stronger read than usual rather than some massive deviation. I get that we tend to sus everything that represents a significant step outside the norm, but we should put it in the context of this being GP specifically, meaning Casey was presented with a full claim early on that quickly set them off. Combined with the potential mechanical basis for the sus (I haven't seen clarity on that, not sure if it even exists since it was apparently someone else's interpretation), I can't really see the VTL as a reason to sus Casey. Lean town.

4. Wylted

Little to go off of so far. The defense of Casey's sus makes sense to me, and dismissing the faction perk out of hand comes off as a more likely town move than scum. Slight townlean.

5. Vader

Just going to have a hard time seeing Vader as anything but town with that claim. It might get harder to do if there's a Ninja in play and he just keeps getting Tracked or Watched to the NK, but I just don't see Vader taking this risk with a fake claim unless he was sure one of those roles would be in the game. His uncertainty regarding Casey might come off as a little odd without that, but Vader's my strongest townread atm.

6. Lunatic

While we agree on GP, I'm not really sure where the sus is coming from against Vader, and maybe that has more to do with just not seeing his full thought process on Vader since I haven't really seen the kind of buddying Luna is claiming he sees. The response to Austin comes off as authentic, but I can't say anything more than that. Just null to me.

7. Savant

The probability analysis isn't going anywhere for me, but I like how Savant has been doing his behavioral analysis for Casey and GP. The correction on the potential mechanical connection between Casey and GP's roles came off as pretty townie, though the rest isn't all that indicative, so he's a slight townlean.

8. Austin

I'm not really understanding the reasoning that is leading Austin to townread GP, particularly since it's all WIFOM logic (GP would never fakeclaim this) and modpsych (this seems like the kind of role Mharman would use). I get that this is only a townlean, which is as much as I've gotten, but I don't see any analysis of GP's behavior so far in this game, which is a basis several people have mentioned (myself included) for why GP seems off this game. I wouldn't say I'm at the point where I'm scumreading him over it because I can at least understand why these things could be important considerations for Austin, but it keeps him null for me.
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#85
Mharman
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Vote Count
Wylted (1/5) Casey
Casey (1/5) Austin
Greyparrot (1/5) Wylted
#86
Vader
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WF feels town to me. Definetly a lot more attention into making more detailed post and deep analyzing of behaviors and theme. This is how WF plays as town fmpov
#87
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Right now my strongest reads are only town reads atm. No one is has a scum read but I do have a FoS on Luna atm for his some of his reads. I think him being eager to pair me and GP as a scum team comes off sus and a bit too jumpy. 

Lean Town
Casey
WF



#88
Savant
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@Vader
Luna atm for his some of his reads. I think him being eager to pair me and GP as a scum team comes off sus and a bit too jumpy.
Not really imo. Townies suspect people of being in teams together all the time. GP and Austin people assumed WF and I were teamed up the last game because we agreed on reads. All scum Luna had to do was hang back and not contribute much, and that's what I'd expect if he was scum this game.

Slight town lean on Luna for me, he's being way more proactive than last time.
#89
Casey_Risk
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@AustinL0926
Back home now. Side note, if you like social deduction games (of course you do, you're playing this one after all), and you haven't played The Chameleon before, definitely try it out. It's fast-paced and a bunch of fun. I don't think it would work in a forum setting like this, but it could maybe work on Discord. Anyway, responding to some posts.

I like GP's claim - because at a surface level, Rolecop tends to be a pretty scummy claim, so I expect if he was fakeclaiming and planned to do so before the game started, he would think of something better. That aside, from a pure PM analysis/mod psyche pov, the part about rolecop specifically not showing alignments makes sense to include and is also a variant of rolecop that I feel Mharman would be more likely to do, since he often makes roles non-standard.
This is all just WIFOM. Yeah, maybe scum GP would have known better than to claim something scummy. Or maybe he'd be banking on the fact that he could convince everyone to believe that he wouldn't do that. Maybe you think the former is more likely, fine, but I feel like a player as experienced as you should not be so strongly swayed by such an argument. Claiming a scummy role and relying on WIFOM to get away with it is not that uncommon in this game, and I'll admit that I don't have much experience playing with GP, but I don't understand why you don't believe he would do that.

And maybe Mharman would be more likely to include the variant of Role Cop that doesn't reveal the target's alignment if he were including it as a town role -- but that's if he were including it as a town role. I agree that GP likely is actually a Role Cop regardless of his affiliation, but we don't actually know for certain whether he's town or not yet, and I don't see any real reason to townread him in your post that isn't just a WIFOM argument. Also, the variant that doesn't reveal alignment is not "non-standard", at least not if we're going by sites like MafiaScum or MafiaUniverse.
#90
Casey_Risk
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@ILikePie5
@Savant
@WyIted
In context, not really: "As a town role, it's typically used in games where there are many roles which could easily belong to either side, such as Jailkeeper or Rolestopper. Tough to say whether this is that kind of game yet, though based on my own role, I'm not convinced."

Casey isn't saying their role doesn't work with GP's, just that their role doesn't make GP's role more likely.
In regards to my own role, I will say that Savant is actually mostly correct here. My role and GP's are not incompatible, but it is another factor that makes me raise an eyebrow. Suffice it to say that I am hesitant to fullclaim right now. I will if more players want me to, but for now I'll leave it at that.