Inheritance Cycle Mafia DP2

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#181
Cerulean
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@AustinL0926
My worry here is that you're focusing on Wylted's day actions to the exclusion of his night actions.
WyIted's night action makes perfect sense from a town POV if you think he either A) wanted to spite Lunatic by vanillizing him or B) wanted to have the go-ahead to hard push Lunatic/the knowledge that the fight was Town v. Town. Emotional play does not a Mafia make.

it's actually a decent play for Wylted to allow a no lynch [as Mafia]
Sure, but the way he went about it screamed uncertainty and hesitancy, which, as I said, I recognize from my own Town play. Am I a different person from WyIted? Sure. But I have a hard time believing this specific series of events and WyIted still ending up as Mafia when no other strong Investigative roles have come forward.

That's my primary hangup with voting WyIted. I can't recall a single game on this site where the Town didn't have at least one reasonably strong Investigative of some sort, even when it was hindered by some other Mafia ability. So either WyIted is that role, someone is silent about theirs, or there isn't one. I find option one most likely.
#182
Cerulean
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@AustinL0926
do you think I'm actively pushing for a mislynch by voting Wylted? Or are you just bothered by my narrow focus, and why?
A little bit of both, really. I'm off-put by your list that has literally everyone in "Town/Town lean" besides WyIted. I would expect a Town player to construct a list like that, look at it, and realize "Okay, I have too many Town, I need to set the bar higher," but that train of thought just... isn't there. I know you said that it's ordered within tiers, but I still don't get how you ended up with only one person below "Town lean" when you know there's probably 2 Mafia.

This is kind of a nitpick, but sometimes that's what catches the Mafia.
#183
Cerulean
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I was going to say that we technically don't lose any lynches by not voting here, but we'd probably just lose one of the two locktowns regardless, so there's not much of a point there.

#184
Mharman
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@Lunatic
Btw he didn't claim without pressure. I pieced together that he was Galbatorix based on his role, and in my response to Austin made a point about how the role would make sense with him, then immediately after Wylted confirmed I was right (this is the behavioral argument you are asking for btw), as it made sense to me that he would need someones true name (IE Role in this context) in order to vanillize them, and he said he would use it on earth who was the only one who had claimed at that point. To me it seemed extremely convenient I happened to be right about his character, it seemed to me he had panicked and decided to just go with the claim and hope WIFOM would allow him to live, which it apparently has. 
Thought about this point for a while. It’s compelling at least.

I see your point on his behavior, at least about the character claim. However, he hinted that his role was negative utility far before he was under any pressure, and all Whiteflame needed to do to get the role out of him was just ask. Why would anyone on a scum team go for this? All it does is draw attention to oneself, especially if you are claiming something that can be traced back to your character so easily, as was proven.

The only answer I can see you giving here is “for towncred,” but that doesn’t match up with the behavior. If he’s looking for towncred, why not follow through with targeting Earth? If he’s looking for something more than townread, I can see him switching targets, but that’s only if he expects to be townread afterwards… at which point I think it’s more likely he’s telling the truth and town.

How likely do you think it is that an investigative ability wouldn’t CC him here? Cause if I’m an investigative ability at this point, I would be CCing Wylted here.

As for the other half of that post, yes you are correct, arguing about your role is pointless now. I was just shocked that Wylted was outright calling you town because I hadn’t read his post about being a cop yet. I figured he would only be targeting you if he scumread you at the time.
#185
Mharman
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@Lunatic
I’ll give some updated thoughts and reads when I’m done catching up here. I’m still looking at my notifications 
#186
Mharman
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@WyIted
Let's vote whiteflame.  It's not that I blame anyone for putting me in their scum pile. Lunatic gave reasons, ADOL gave legitimate reasons. It's just that whiteflames responses have felt manufactured
Im still thinking about Cerulean (and would like to take another look at him today), but Whiteflame is on my radar to be a teammate. I’m down, lemme catch up first
#187
Mharman
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@WyIted
wait, are you looking for a lynch or a claim first on Whiteflame? Cause I’m gonna be looking for a claim first if I get in on this
#188
WyIted
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@Mharman
People always look for claims. I don't care. I usually only look for claims to get a better feel for somebody but if they are on the scum list already it's not like it will clear them
#189
Mharman
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@Earth
@AustinL0926
@WyIted
My character is Nasuada, I would strongly prefer not to role claim yet.
#190
Lunatic
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The only answer I can see you giving here is “for towncred,” but that doesn’t match up with the behavior. If he’s looking for towncred, why not follow through with targeting Earth? If he’s looking for something more than townread, I can see him switching targets, but that’s only if he expects to be townread afterwards… at which point I think it’s more likely he’s telling the truth and town.

I don’t think he’s going for town cred that just happens to be a by product of his playstyle. I think Wylted does actions that benefit mafia over acting as mafia being worried about how town thinks of him. Ironically your logic in redeeming him for it is exactly why it works for his playstyle.
#191
Lunatic
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@Mharman
How likely do you think it is that an investigative ability wouldn’t CC him here? Cause if I’m an investigative ability at this point, I would be CCing Wylted here.


if there is a town investigation role I think they are smart to not CC this. We already have enough on Wylted without a CC, having the actual investigation role claim is harmful to town at this point 
#192
Lunatic
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@Mharman
My character is Nasuada, I would strongly prefer not to role claim yet
I like the claim, I would be surprised if she wasn’t in the game
#193
Mharman
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@Lunatic
@whiteflame
@WyIted
For the record, yes, I really was townreading Wyted so hard that I didn't even consider Wylted was lying. I still do townread Wylted pretty solidly... Lunatic, I see your point about Wylted's playstyle, but I'm not there with you on that. I think occam's razor says Wylted just expected everyone to believe his cop claim and a scum Wylted wouldn't. I'll keep it in the back if my mind, but I want to look at other options before revisiting this. I kinda want to take another look at Cerulean today. A claim from Whiteflame is fine too.
#194
Mharman
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I'm gonna go reread Cerulean's posts.
#195
whiteflame
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@Mharman
A claim from Whiteflame is fine too.
If people want this from me, I'll give it. The claim does have more value if I wait one more DP to give it. The only thing I will say for the time being (because I think it's obvious I have some type of PR) is that I was RB'd last night.
#196
ADreamOfLiberty
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@AustinL0926
ADOL, have you ever played forum mafia before?
Never, this is first time.


There are a few things I noticed from you that I've seen mostly from experienced players, which is why I'm curious:

-The use of "theatre" as a way to describe fake scum-scum conflict, which is indeed a specific piece of vocabulary in mafia that I didn't see any other players this game use yet
It's a good word to use for a conspiracy to behave a certain way in public.


-Noting that D1 lynches are barely above rand accuracy (correct, but not an intuitive conclusion)
Trust establishment is a fundamental factor in game theory and it's a generally accepted premise that assuming equal intelligence and deceptiveness no words can establish trust. It's the "they know that I know they know etc.... convergence", i.e. anyone with a theory of other minds more accurate than the actual other mind's logic should be able to generate a perfect lie (again no evidence).

It's intuitive to me that there shouldn't be any reliable advantage which would allow above random accuracy.

If you include knowledge of player's character (real character not game character), mistakes (unequal intelligence or honesty) then that assumption is off.


-Noting that no lynches are statistically worse than rand lynches
Again, it's immediately obvious in observing the game mechanics. Just think of the the extreme cases, if the town lynch nobody the mafia always win. Therefore the ideal amount of lynching is above zero, without evidence random lynching is the only >0 lynching possible. At least some of the time random lynching will kill the mafia before everyone in the town is dead.

Of course the idea of the game is to use logic and personality assessment to get better than random targeting, but even then it follows that seeing how players react to potential lynchings is one of the few constant triggers for evidence creation.
#197
ADreamOfLiberty
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VTL Wylted
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#198
ILikePie5
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Official Vote Count:

Wylted (3/5) - Lunatic, Austin, ADOL
Mharman (2/5) - Earth, Wylted

#199
Lunatic
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I believe Whiteflame right now and am fine with him waiting til tomorrow. 
#200
whiteflame
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WyIted is, effectively, at L-1 so bear that in mind for anyone considering a vote at this point.

As for Mharman's claim, the character is clearly an important one. I don't have a scumread on him right now, but I'll note that we should be careful how much heft we give to claiming a major character. Scum now know of the existence (or non-existence) of two characters in the game and Pie is certain to have left some major characters out of the 9 he assigned.

I'm still pretty torn on WyIted, but he remains the best pick I have at this point. There's a lot I don't like about how he's justified his actions up until now, and even though I feel all this is on brand for WyIted, I can't dismiss it based on that alone, either.

We've got until tomorrow evening to figure this out, so let's use that time wisely. If we need more info from Mharman or another claim, even mine, this is the time to seek it.
#201
Mharman
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@whiteflame
Spent a lot of time reading and thinking. Typing out full reads now.

I would like your claim, yes.

VTL Whiteflame
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#202
ILikePie5
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Official Vote Count:

Wylted (3/5) - Lunatic, Austin, ADOL
Mharman (2/5) - Earth, Wylted
Whiteflame (1/5) - Mharman

#203
AustinL0926
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@WyIted
He wouldn't know how easy or hard I was ro lynch at that point and I am somewhat susceptible to budding due to being a narcissist.  

What's important is the absolute faith in me as town. And strong faith is okay but it goes to the point where it feels like inside knowledge of my affiliation. 
I... you literally claimed to vanillaize an unclaimed person right after you promised you would use it on a negative utility role. I don't really believe that you thought you would be just fine, and in fact this expectation that people would treat it as such, rather than a more realistic assessment of the situation, is part of why I'm scumreading you, since it feels explicitly fake.

Just to be clear, I want Mharman's claim because I see him as a strong potential partner for you - so I'm struggling to understand the pov from which you're scumreading him if you're truly town.
#204
AustinL0926
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@whiteflame
I think everyone should at least have an opinion on WyIted at this point, given the amount of back-and-forth that has happened with him and the number of questions he has answered. I have my issues with some of his responses and his decision to keep drip-feeding information about his role definitely has not helped my perception of him. If this was anyone else, all this would be an obvious red flag and I'd have already voted. Being that it's WyIted and I kind of understand at this point how he came to these conclusions, frustrating as some of them are from my perception, it's become harder to scumread him as we've gone along. I chalk that up to having interacted with WyIted enough that I'm seeing similarities to his usual patterns, but it's hard to say whether they're town or scum at the moment.
Half of Wylted's scum playstyle is refuge in audacity. I do get that he's playing in an erratic way which doesn't feel entirely survivalistic, but the problem is that I have better reasons to townread everyone else and if he's scum, I'm loathe to just let him get away with vanillaizing town after town (because, to be clear, I see Luna as very likely town off his responses to Wylted today).
#205
AustinL0926
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@ADreamOfLiberty
Thanks for the response. It's not really that relevant to your alignment, was mostly just something I wanted clarification on.
#206
AustinL0926
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@Cerulean
WyIted's night action makes perfect sense from a town POV if you think he either A) wanted to spite Lunatic by vanillizing him or B) wanted to have the go-ahead to hard push Lunatic/the knowledge that the fight was Town v. Town. Emotional play does not a Mafia make.
It also makes obvious sense coming from a scum POV. With that in mind, what breaks the tie for me is whether he had alternatives - as town, he could've used it on a negative utility role like he promised, while as scum, doing that basically is just hard townsiding and going to ruin his team sooner or later mechanically.

That's my primary hangup with voting WyIted. I can't recall a single game on this site where the Town didn't have at least one reasonably strong Investigative of some sort, even when it was hindered by some other Mafia ability. So either WyIted is that role, someone is silent about theirs, or there isn't one. I find option one most likely.
If I was a strong investigative role, I wouldn't CC someone who's scummy as hell and likely going to go down. I find this especially strange since Oracle is a fairly strong investigative role, the equivalent of a full rolecop that works even after someone dies, and I don't find it very compatible with cop. I also heavily dislike the way Wylted went about his claim - it feels insanely convenient that he claimed Cop after he got called out for vanillaizing someone, and if you recall, it's not even a guarantee of risking a CC - mafia can ask about two roles, as mentioned in  the OP.


#207
Earth
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@Mharman
Thank you for that. Noticed what WF said. 

Unvote
#208
AustinL0926
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@Cerulean
A little bit of both, really. I'm off-put by your list that has literally everyone in "Town/Town lean" besides WyIted. I would expect a Town player to construct a list like that, look at it, and realize "Okay, I have too many Town, I need to set the bar higher," but that train of thought just... isn't there. I know you said that it's ordered within tiers, but I still don't get how you ended up with only one person below "Town lean" when you know there's probably 2 Mafia.
This also bothers me a bit because it feels so surface-level. The fact that I have most other people in town lean in a sign that I'm genuinely unsure about my worldview and being honest about it - I'm not going to shove someone I townlean into a scumlean just for the sake of making two scumreads. It's something that requires real evaluation, not a numbers game. If I'm scum, while don't I just fake a nice-looking readlist?
#209
AustinL0926
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I'm strongly not interested in a claim from whiteflame today.
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#210
ILikePie5
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Official Vote Count:

Wylted (3/5) - Lunatic, Austin, ADOL
Mharman (1/5) - Wylted
Whiteflame (1/5) - Mharman