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@whiteflame
I’d advise you not to claim on the whims of one person but it’s entirely up to you.
Inheritance Cycle Mafia DP2
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At this point I don’t see a whole lot of negative from the Wylted lynch since no lynched day phase one.
1. We get information and will know the theme split has nothing to do with antagonists being villains
2. It will help us in future day phases in analyzing who was pro and con against this wagon based on wylteds flip
3. If he does happen to be the only investigative role, the con side of his role outweighs the benefit of the cop. And if we don’t lynch him we are kind of just hoping he’s not lying anyway with the results, it will always be a gamble. Also keeping him alive risks him vanillizing more power roles which prevents role confirmation from said players. His role is more of a liability to town than it helps, and it only helps if he happens to correctly guess scum, he is already 0-1 on that front.
It’s not that I’m unwilling or unable to see a world where Wylted is town, but even if he is town I just don’t see the harm of the lynch when there are so many more signs that point to him likely being scum, the worst case scenario here is a mislynch, which is likely to happen in the early game anyway. Not a lot of drawbacks here
Random side note: in wylteds response to me he mentioned he didn’t know he was a villain when he claimed. So this should also help dismiss the counter argument WIFOM of “why would wylteds draw attention to himself” yada yada that wifom and cerulean keep making for him. In other words if he was scum he’s admitting that it was a genuine scum slip just as much as he’s hoping you’d buy it from him as a town slip.
Fuck it. I'm tired and I'm not gonna finish typing this out tonight.
TLDR Version:
Cerulean- All in all, I still scumread him. For reasons I laid out in DP1, I am very dubious of the idea that Cerulean wanted us all to speculate scum's roles based on some likely characters for reasons I stated DP1. I think it's a retroactive justification. I also think his weird spec into a disjointed mafia makes no sense and is more of a "look guys I'm doing something" than anything else. Oracle is weak role and Elva isn't on the main characters list. I thought about this for a while and given the context of his behavior, I think he was banking on more people having non-main character roles and was also looking for info on who had strong PRs by way of having main-ish characters.
Whiteflame- The most plausible teammate to Cerulean. Disagreed with many of his points on Cerulean to the point where they felt weird. Like his best defense was some gigabrain play he was alleging Cerulean was doing with basically no evidence for it. He also moved Cerulean's "hey look I'm doing something" speculation forward with some theory about a lone wolf that has a snowball's chance in hell of being true. I can see this interaction as scripted, or just mutual interaction for the sake of interacting with the thread. Seriously. He can tell Casey that looking into Cerulean fishing for info is a misleading rabbit hole, but speculating about how maifa might be separated or in a lone wolf scenario isn't? He also had a point about how some people could have offbeat chracters for a specific role, and Cerulean is the only person here who has one.
Austin - He rubs me the wrong way. The thing is, I can understand his scumread on Cerulean in DP1 because it's obvious. But his sus on Wylted this DP seems a bit opportunistic. I still don't understand why we want to lynch an un-CCd cop, and I will probably be fighting it until low time, assuming he's not effectively hammered by then. Going back to DP1, I felt he was too quick to give Lunatic and Cerulean a pass early in the DP. He was he went with the same sus on Cerulean everyone had... and then said he had an early townread on him. It makes no sense to me. At that time Lunatic had made like one post that really wasn't all that much imo. When I asked, his justification was basically "muh vibes." The thing is, he did eventually vote for Cerulean and pushing him more after I called him out on it. I doubt they're on the same team. All in all, I have a stronger scumread on Cerulean than Austin. At least Austin explained his thought process a little better in this DP. The teammate here is something I'm still thinking about. In this case my top teammate would be Whiteflame, but the connection isn't super strong. It's more because I'm scumreading Whiteflame more than anything else.
ADOL - Slight townlean, almost null but it's more of a noob pass. He isn't giving too much imo, and that's fine because I don't expect much more from him. I do agree that his input isn't easy for noob scum to fake at least. Take this one with a grain of salt.
Lunatic - Basically town confirmed off Wylted's results. For him to be scum, I'd have to believe Lunatic and his partner would had to have scouted Wylted's role to know that he doesn't vanillize scum, and then pretend like Lunatic was vanillized... and that Lunatic happened to have something that made him look innocent to investigations. Granted, it's all technically possible, but unlikely. Seriously, what scum team rolecops someone's who's already claimed? I'm shocked arsonist is town in this game, but whatever.
Wylted - He is an un CC-d cop. I've read a lot of Lunatic's points, but I just don't think they are correct. Couldn't a teammate talk him out of any stupid shit he'd do, too? The scumread him I'm being asked to assume he had impulsively claimed his actual role and character as scum for towncred out of literal nowhere. I don't even think Wylted is that ballsy. I really don't. Again, it also makes sense why he claimed. He said right out of the gate that he may have negative utility, and claimed it pretty quick when Whiteflame expressed some interest. Sure you could argue he was under some small amount of pressure when he claimed Galbatorix, but he was under virtually none when he claimed vanillizer. And again, it makes sense why he behaved the way he did when you consider he was mislynched last game, in part because he didn't SoP his miller role.
Earth - Obvious town, should be fully confirmed this DP. No scum claims a verifiable role like that to blend in. He claimed it from the start as an SoP too. The odds that scum has this role are next to none imo. Looks like Pie put the negative utility in there just for game balance.
ok that wasn't much of a TLDR but whatever. I could've gone into more detail too.
goodnight
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@Mharman
Couldn't a teammate talk him out of any stupid shit he'd do, too?
1. His claim happened real time as I was interacting with him with not a long delay between, which means wylted was probably just winging it and it's likely his partner wasn't online.
2. His partner cosigned wylted's behavior. You are a prime example setting for why this would work since your making the exact argument in favor of him for it to work, and if I hadn't been pressing it so hard, you'd probably be the winning argument. Even earlier in this day phase wylted was telling me he didn't think I'd have the support for this lynch.
3. Or his partner doesn't know or care about the theme, I think this argument would really only apply to you or cerulean of the living players, and its something I can also see as an option.
But anyways I already addressed the point here just now, wylted said he didn't even know his character was an antagonist, so unless you think he was lying, he wasn't really being "ballsy" with his claim,
The scumread him I'm being asked to assume he had impulsively claimed his actual role and character as scum for towncred out of literal nowhere.
HE didn't want to claim remember? I had guessed his character to austin when asking austin for his thoughts on wylteds role, and correctly guessed he was Galbatorix, in which I think Wylted panicked and decided to go with it since I had already pieced it together. Keep in mind wylted is trying to say he didn't know his character was an antagonist at this time, so if you are to believe him like you claim you do, then there shouldn't have been any risk in claiming his character under the notion he didn't know it was scummy. This takes the steam out of your "It's too ballsy, even for wylted" argument.
I really don't like mharmans thoughts this game. They feel so much more forced in comparison to his town play. I'd heavily consider looking into mharman if I die tonight.
Approximately 12 hours left
Are we going to lynch someone, or are we No Lynching again?
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@AustinL0926
I also heavily dislike the way Wylted went about his claim - it feels insanely convenient that he claimed Cop after he got called out for vanillaizing someone, and if you recall, it's not even a guarantee of risking a CC - mafia can ask about two roles, as mentioned in the OP.
I think it said 2 characters not roles. This is the second time I caught you in this lie. The first time I thought it was just a mistake, but repeating it after I correct you means it's an obvious lie.
It's that's a stupid narrative. How would adding cop to my claim be convenient when everyone thought I was just a vanillaizer?
If I come in here claim I am also a watcher tomorrow and just keep adding shit to the role, does that seem like convenient lies to you ?!it's either an inconvenient truth or I am intentionally shooting myself in the leg.
I honestly have to flip my my read on mharman. No way does he not come after me as scum when enough people have made it easy to do so. My new team is whiteflame/Austin
Unvote
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@AustinL0926
I... you literally claimed to vanillaize an unclaimed person right after you promised you would use it on a negative utility role. I don't really believe that you thought you would be just fine, and in fact this expectation that people would treat it as such, rather than a more realistic assessment of the situation, is part of why I'm scumreading you, since it feels explicitly fake.
I don't even know what point you were trying to make here?
The point is that by being deceptive with my target I better ensured no funny business. It's common and expected for town to be deceptive about targets to keep the scum team on their heels and not able to plan their night actions as well.
On DP1 I just said I vanillaize. I only pointed out that it only works with town on dp2. If they thought I was vanillaizing town than they wouldn't block or redirect me. If lunatic was scum and I said I was targeting him to vanillaize clearly my role would be messed with. This is like when a doctor says I am targeting person A, they then assume the scum team will believe them and NK person B, so they actually just protect person B. This type of deception and meta game is expected.
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@AustinL0926
Just to be clear, I want Mharman's claim because I see him as a strong potential partner for you - so I'm struggling to understand the pov from which you're scumreading him if you're truly town.
I perceive him "knowing" I am town as a scum slip. It used to be the community was smart enough to know that is a common scum slip
Official Vote Count:
Wylted (3/5) - Lunatic, Austin, ADOL
Whiteflame (1/5) - Mharman
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@Lunatic
It’s not that I’m unwilling or unable to see a world where Wylted is town, but even if he is town I just don’t see the harm of the lynch w
I do, because we get just as many mislynched if we lynch today as we do if we lynch next DP and I can clear one more person.
We are likely 6-2
Mislynch and NK put us at 4-2
No more mislynched
No lynch plus NK puts us at 5-2
Then we still only get the one mislynch but have more information going in
2 pieces of information I had that made me hesitate to character claim
1. I perceived the character and I haven't read the books as some sort of psychic. To me psychics know stuff they shouldn't so I thought well this character is the obvious cop. When Lunatic worked it out anyway, I thought the scum team peobaby has also. Now I realize that lunatic is a fan of these children's books and knew the theme well.
2. At the time I didn't realize scum had 2 free questions about what characters are in the game. It would have been less important to keep my character secret, knowing this.
1. I perceived the character and I haven't read the books as some sort of psychic. To me psychics know stuff they shouldn't so I thought well this character is the obvious cop. When Lunatic worked it out anyway, I thought the scum team peobaby has also. Now I realize that lunatic is a fan of these children's books and knew the theme well.
2. At the time I didn't realize scum had 2 free questions about what characters are in the game. It would have been less important to keep my character secret, knowing this.
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@Lunatic
I really don't like mharmans thoughts this game. They feel so much more forced in comparison to his town play. I'd heavily consider looking into mharman if I die tonight.
You don't get to say this when I already told you to switch the vote to him.
It's too late. I as the next likely dead towny now bestow upon him town cred to cancel our this shit. Also you are obviously the prime NKntarget since you are confirmed town
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@Earth
No lynching still gives us the same amount of mislynches and with more information, so it's probably the mathematically correct move here
DP1 I think we had 2 mislynches available I should have hammered Cerulean tbh, even if they are town
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@Mharman
Spent a lot of time reading and thinking. Typing out full reads now.I would like your claim, yes.VTL Whiteflame
Seems like most of your problem with me is how you're associating me with defending Cerulean in DP1, which is fair since, frankly, I wasn't thinking it through that well. Going down rabbit holes remains a problem for me in these games.
Still, fair though your analysis is, I'll need more than just you to push for my claim. I'll give it gladly at the start of next DP.
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@AustinL0926
Half of Wylted's scum playstyle is refuge in audacity. I do get that he's playing in an erratic way which doesn't feel entirely survivalistic, but the problem is that I have better reasons to townread everyone else and if he's scum, I'm loathe to just let him get away with vanillaizing town after town (because, to be clear, I see Luna as very likely town off his responses to Wylted today).
Points taken. I think you and Luna are on the same page about a lot of this. I can see WyIted behaving this way as town or scum, and there's a distinct risk with keeping him alive since he has to Vanillaize someone at this point due to the apparently compulsive nature of his role. On the one hand, I'm tempted to see if he'll be RB'd because I know that mechanic is in this game and I suspect he'll be the target if he's telling the truth (given a Cop would narrow the field). On the other hand, potentially losing yet another town PR could be a big loss and WyIted targeting unknown roles doesn't help his case.
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@Lunatic
I’d advise you not to claim on the whims of one person but it’s entirely up to you.
I agree. I'm holding off for now.
Reminder we get the same amount of mislynches if we no lynch here than if we lynch and we reduce the chances of error by waiting.
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@WyIted
On DP1 I just said I vanillaize. I only pointed out that it only works with town on dp2. If they thought I was vanillaizing town than they wouldn't block or redirect me. If lunatic was scum and I said I was targeting him to vanillaize clearly my role would be messed with. This is like when a doctor says I am targeting person A, they then assume the scum team will believe them and NK person B, so they actually just protect person B. This type of deception and meta game is expected.
That makes sense for a lot of roles. It doesn't make sense for a role that actively harms the utility of this target, and I don't buy that you thought that others would expect this reasoning.
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@Earth
@whiteflame
@Mharman
I think it said 2 characters not roles. This is the second time I caught you in this lie. The first time I thought it was just a mistake, but repeating it after I correct you means it's an obvious lie. - WYLTED
wtf. WYLTED IS LITERALLY TRYING TO DISCREDIT ME OFF PROVABLE LIES RN.
From the OP of DP1:
As always, Mafia will be given the opportunity to ask if any two roles and if any two characters are in the game at any point in time, to which I will truthfully answer. - PIE
I genuinely cannot see town Wylted ever just blatantly lying like this in order to try and discredit my read and paint me as scum. It's incredibly scummy and shows he's not trying to engage me in good faith.
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@whiteflame
. On the one hand, I'm tempted to see if he'll be RB'd because I know that mechanic is in this game and I suspect he'll be the target if he's telling the truth (given a Cop would narrow the field). On the other hand, potentially losing yet another town PR could be a big loss and WyIted targeting unknown roles doesn't help his case.
Ok. Thought experiment: I'm dead tomorrow and Wylted claims to have cop checked you innocent while you get vanillaized (assuming you're town).
What do you do? Does that make you, or any of the other players, trust him any more when it doesn't prove anything? And will any of the other players trust his cop check (since there's nothing proving that he didn't just waive his action and then claim an innocent on a teammate).
It doesn't give any additional info; while Wylted is alive, we can never trust anything he says, and I suspect, given what I think of his alignment, it's not going to change either if he flips.
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@WyIted
Reminder we get the same amount of mislynches if we no lynch here than if we lynch and we reduce the chances of error by waiting.
Which conveniently gives scum an additional NK. Not to mention I assume you're going to vanillaize another person, probably an unclaimed PR, because you "suspected" them.
I strongly veto this.
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@AustinL0926
The additional NK doesn't matter because it will likely remove somebody from somebody's scum pool and give informational roles and additional day to figure things out.
A no lynch is the mathematically correct decision here, it also gives me another investigation. You guys can mislynch me next DP with another town player cleared or with a confirmable result.
I doubt you guys are this stupid to think I would actually clear somebody as definite town like lunatic if I was scum.
It's wifom but clearing people to make the game easier for town as scum is retarded. There is no world where scum wylted actually clears lunatic and there is also no world where scum wylted would entangle himself with his scum buddy if lunatic was scum.
It's so easy to lynch me that anyone currently not on my wagon is pretty much cleared as town, except whiteflame who tentatively has his vote on me but not officially.
That leaves 2 scum on my wagon and lunatic is town. The game is virtually aolved TBH
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@WyIted
The additional NK doesn't matter because it will likely remove somebody from somebody's scum pool and give informational roles and additional day to figure things out.
What makes you think there are additional informational roles? You're already a cop in a 9-player setup, I highly doubt there'd be any additional roles that would change things mechanically if you're telling the truth.
And also, you're acting like we should take you as town on face value - but I find it far more likely that you're scum, in which case the cost of losing a townie and having another one vanillaized in broad daylight is too great to risk.