Okay, work is nearly over for me for the week (praise the gods!) I'm going to go and get an after-work treat for myself and then I'll post more of my thoughts. For now, I just have to say that I'm genuinely surprised how many of these I am already familiar with. I guess I know more about this topic than I realized. Sometimes, listening to podcasts really does help.
Mayday Mafia DP1
Posts
Read-only
Total:
510
-->
@whiteflame
If anything, that claim sounds perfect for some sort of protective role. It’s very odd. Strengthener as a fake role claim also is possible since it is relatively rare
-->
@ILikePie5
If anything, that claim sounds perfect for some sort of protective role. It’s very odd. Strengthener as a fake role claim also is possible since it is relatively rare
Yeah, I've used it before for that very reason. There also just aren't a lot of roles like it.
-->
@whiteflame
@ILikePie5
@Moozer325
Okay, so the glider was also covered in an episode of Cautionary Tales, specifically the one where Tim interviewed Matt Parker, aka Stand Up Maths. What Moozer says about the story seems to line up with what I remember about it. IIRC, the passengers were incredibly lucky that the pilots actually knew how to glide a plane like that
In simulations done after the fact, every other pilot who tried to save the plane crashed. With this in mind, I think the role claim is possible, but I don't know if it's very likely. I agree that a protective role would make more sense.
-->
@Cerulean
How confident are/were you in this, by the way? It made me squint a bit because it looks too sure, too fast.
It just struck me as interesting how Earth claimed pretty much instantly, which led me to believe he probably wasn't lying. In retrospect, I think I might have been underestimating the probability of him being scum. It just seemed unlikely to me that scum would so quickly claim a role which tends to get lynched early like that, though I guess it does depend on playstyle. Some players are more risk-averse than others. I will say that I've seen Earth as scum twice, once in a game that I modded, and I don't feel like he'd be the type to claim Miller instantly, but I could be wrong. In any case, the justification checks out to me.
I buy that claim.
-->
@ILikePie5
Consider the following hypothetical: Moozer has 4 votes, and I have 4 votes. You haven't voted, and there is little time left in the day. Who are you voting?
-->
@Casey_Risk
It just struck me as interesting how Earth claimed pretty much instantly, which led me to believe he probably wasn't lying. In retrospect, I think I might have been underestimating the probability of him being scum. It just seemed unlikely to me that scum would so quickly claim a role which tends to get lynched early like that, though I guess it does depend on playstyle. Some players are more risk-averse than others. I will say that I've seen Earth as scum twice, once in a game that I modded, and I don't feel like he'd be the type to claim Miller instantly, but I could be wrong. In any case, the justification checks out to me.
Earth's the type to do big risk plays even when they seem unnecessary. My experience with him as scum makes me a little nervous of his claim, but not enough to solidly scumread it, mainly because of the incident and justification. I buy that he could play the Miller card really early, I don't buy that it would be that good of a connection if he did.
I'm going to head off for the night. I want to hear more thoughts on Moozer's claim and people need to post more anyway, so now's the time to post those thoughts, guys. Spread them out over a couple of different posts. Break up your reads.
-->
@whiteflame
Earth's the type to do big risk plays even when they seem unnecessary.
Really? I was mainly thinking of Ace Attorney Mafia when I wrote my post, and I don't remember him doing anything particularly risky that game, but I know you have a lot more experience than me here, so I'll defer to your judgment.
-->
@Casey_Risk
It just struck me as interesting how Earth claimed pretty much instantly, which led me to believe he probably wasn't lying. In retrospect, I think I might have been underestimating the probability of him being scum. It just seemed unlikely to me that scum would so quickly claim a role which tends to get lynched early like that, though I guess it does depend on playstyle. Some players are more risk-averse than others. I will say that I've seen Earth as scum twice, once in a game that I modded, and I don't feel like he'd be the type to claim Miller instantly, but I could be wrong. In any case, the justification checks out to me.
Go back and ready the Mafia Guide. He’d definitely do something like that lol
-->
@Earth
Consider the following hypothetical: Moozer has 4 votes, and I have 4 votes. You haven't voted, and there is little time left in the day. Who are you voting?
Moozer. Too many inconsistencies with his role, justification, and behavior. Only thing for you is probably role
-->
@ILikePie5
Go back and ready the Mafia Guide. He’d definitely do something like that lol
Are you talking about this story?
This is a real-game example of how I recently used WIFOM. Because I am generally regarded as a good player, more often than not when I am mafia I am investigated within the first one or two night phases. This is extremely problematic, so I have had to adjust my play-style to compensate for it. In a recent game I was the mafia redirector. Now my character wasn't a problem, since she was a good guy within the context of the theme, but my role was. Of course I couldn't out-right claim this, since it's an extremely anti-town role so I had to quickly come up with a fake claim. I decided to be bold and claimed ‘town bus-driver'. Now bus-driver is almost always a mafia role, but it isn't necessarily anti-town. It matched my character. Such a ‘scummy' role was a legitimate reason to claim early (much like the miller generally claims immediately). It wasn't going to be counter-claimed. Most importantly, when I was inevitably incriminated, it would allow me to say "last night I switched myself with x, so they must be guilty". Of course this didn't work, because there were too many elements involved and I was too late in the bandwagon to turn it around but it was good in theory. After I claimed and the brief discussion regarding my claim, attention toward me dissipated and I was able to play the game. It was convincing enough to have the mason recruiter target me and die in the process.
Because I'm pretty sure that wasn't actually Earth; I think the whole guide was copy-pasted from an old DDO thread. Mharman himself commented this on it:
Ah, the old guide. You know, I don't remember which game Tvellalott claimed to be a town bus driver. I found it, but I don't know if I wrote myself any notes on it. Oh well. I'll look into it once summer break begins. It'd be nice to give summaries of games when I put together the full mafia archive.
That being said, if you and Whiteflame agree that Earth would be willing to take that kind of risk, then I believe you.
I have to say, I do find it noteworthy that Moozer has claimed an incident with no fatalities or major injuries. Is anyone else's flight like that?
-->
@Casey_Risk
Because I'm pretty sure that wasn't actually Earth; I think the whole guide was copy-pasted from an old DDO thread. Mharman himself commented this on it:
I always thought that was Earth this entire time 💀
-->
@Cerulean
How confident are/were you in this, by the way? It made me squint a bit because it looks too sure, too fast.
I know this wasn't directed at me, but i'd give some town cred to a miller claim as well. As you can see with pie, pie loves to push lynches on millers. Scum have no incentive to claim miller when pie tends to be one of the more active influences in the game.
-->
@Cerulean
I would (at least for now) defer to you all on that front, since presumably you would have a better instinct on how a theme split is going to come to play with flavor text like this. There's a bit of a scale to the soft claims here- even claiming a specific incident could be enough to clue Mafia into what a person's role is, right? Do you have an idea in mind on how far we should go with it?
It depends on how vague or complex the theme split is. With austin im guessing its more of a complex one. I wouldn't even try guessing at what it is until we have a couple of flips.
-->
@ILikePie5
I don’t like the justification. Could also be a justification for a strongman, but I digress. I still scumread Moozer. I’m interested to here what everyone else thinks
Prima facie, it sounds legit to me.
-->
@whiteflame
The Strengthener itself isn't obvious from the justification. Pulling through a difficult circumstance doesn't scream "Strengthener" to me, even if the information he's provided holds up to what he's saying. Definitely ringing some alarm bells.
I mean loose justification is good enough for me, my role pm justification is loose as well so I am not going to tunnel that.
I buy all the claims right now. Earth doesn't strike me as a risky move maker as scum, I don't think he claims something ballsy like miller. Thats more of a wylted or a lunatic move IMO. I am almost willing to town confirm him for that. Moozer I buy as well, not as strongly convinced he is town, but also a bit of mod psyche here, I don't know how likely it is to score scum twice in a row, plus I didn't notice any blaring mistakes. Moozer kind of made mistakes claiming when I was scum with him, though he did have ample time to prepare. I also kind of town read him because I am sensing that he is the intended mislynch for today.
Unfortunately I am scum reading pie and whiteflame a bit for their over eagerness to lynch moozer. Moozer feels like an easy mislynch target today.
Town pile:
Earth - Miller claim doesn't fit his mafia MO
Moozer- Seems like intended mislynch target for dp1
slight town, mostly null:
Cerulean- Seems to be advising caution agaisnt over-eagerness and looking too much into things. Matching her town behavior from villainous villains so far.
Casey- Town reading him mostly because his thoughts on earth align with mine, though I might backtrack this read depending on how easily he lets pie bully him out of it. If he is scum he doesn't wanna take a hardline stance on anything like that unless earth of course is his scum partner.
Null:
Banana- Hasn't really said much of anything, other than indicating she has a scum role
Scum:
Pie- Hard driving what I feel will be a mislynch
Whiteflame- Not nearly as passive as he usually feels to me, I feel like hes making a mountain out of a molehill with the moozer claim. It piggy backing off of pie who feels scummy to me, makes me less sure about him. Usually whiteflame is much better at catchign scum slips, this doesn't feel like a slip though on moozer part. I just don't like the read, and it doesn't feel like town whiteflame to me.
I am going to advocate a whiteflame lynch over pie. Pie I can see behaving this way as town or scum, tbh, Whiteflame feels a bit more off to me.
VTL whiteflame
Owen is null as well forgot about him
I feel mafia is largely controlling the activity and over all narrative so far. My fault for my inactivity thus far, not blaming anyone.
-->
@Lunatic
Earth doesn't strike me as a risky move maker as scum, I don't think he claims something ballsy like miller. Thats more of a wylted or a lunatic move IMO.
In all seriousness, I will say that Pie hard driving his choice for a lynch feels like business as usual for him, though you are right that Whiteflame was quick to also sus Moozer. I don't think he'd likely do that if Pie was his partner, however. WF seems like the type to be averse to early, quick buddying like that imo.
-->
@Casey_Risk
actually probably not as much lately, because after a while people expected that of me
-->
@Casey_Risk
In all seriousness, I will say that Pie hard driving his choice for a lynch feels like business as usual for him, though you are right that Whiteflame was quick to also sus Moozer. I don't think he'd likely do that if Pie was his partner, however. WF seems like the type to be averse to early, quick buddying like that imo.
yeah seems a bit aggressive-oppertunistic for him as town imo
-->
@Lunatic
I mean loose justification is good enough for me, my role pm justification is loose as well so I am not going to tunnel that.
I don’t really get this response. It’s not just that it’s a loose justification (though I’d say my point was that Strengthener isn’t what follows from reading said justification, not just that it’s “loose”), it’s that several things stand out about the claim. He was pushed to claim early due to inactivity and the role he claimed is a common one I’ve seen (and my scum partner has used) to avoid getting CC’d. If we’re talking looseness, Earth’s justification is far more direct, as is mine. I can only base my read on him off of what information I have. If other people have claims this loose, I’m good with taking a step back and reconsidering my read.
I don't really have any reads at this time, I know that isn't super helpful. Mafia is still a bit confusing to me, and I don't really know how you are all reading each other so easily. It might be that I am just not used to this crowd, but I don't really see anything that stands out.
What is a miller and why is earth being pressured for being one?
-->
@Lunatic
Whiteflame- Not nearly as passive as he usually feels to me, I feel like hes making a mountain out of a molehill with the moozer claim. It piggy backing off of pie who feels scummy to me, makes me less sure about him. Usually whiteflame is much better at catchign scum slips, this doesn't feel like a slip though on moozer part. I just don't like the read, and it doesn't feel like town whiteflame to me.
I get that Pie and I are on the same wavelength (which is generally rare - it didn’t even typify our game as scum together), but is your basis for sussing me really that I tend to be better at catching scum slips? I appreciate the sentiment, but two claims on the table, I’m working with what I have. Not finding a scum slip isn’t scummy. Pointing out a clear deviation from an existing claim and my own isn’t scummy. As for not being passive, in a game where posting a lot more is a mechanic, yes, you can bet I’m going to engage more and push more people to give their thoughts. I said that much up front.
-->
@whiteflame
I don’t really get this response. It’s not just that it’s a loose justification (though I’d say my point was that Strengthener isn’t what follows from reading said justification, not just that it’s “loose”), it’s that several things stand out about the claim. He was pushed to claim early due to inactivity and the role he claimed is a common one I’ve seen (and my scum partner has used) to avoid getting CC’d. If we’re talking looseness, Earth’s justification is far more direct, as is mine. I can only base my read on him off of what information I have. If other people have claims this loose, I’m good with taking a step back and reconsidering my read.
If that is your read that is your read, my goal isn't to change your mind on it, more to determine if it's genuine or opportunistic seeming. It just felt a bit out of character to me personally, but I could be mis-reading the situation. To be fair looseness and directness of role pm's are kind of arbitrary. I thought a lot of them in the indian politicians games didn't really make a TON of sense where others thought they did. So maybe unfamiliarity with the topic's could be me just not understanding the link between justification and role as well. Who do you think moozers partner would be if scum? I don't see him coming up with strengthener by himself.