Mayday Mafia DP1

Author: AustinL0926
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#391
Cerulean
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Lastly casey feels wierd to me. I can't really pin point why, I feel like he posts a lot without actually saying anything super meaningful and blends in very easily. That is about all I can say about him. (Banana)
Might be a good call, actually? Would need to recheck Casey to be sure, but I know they haven't really driven a lot this Day at all. (And as an aside, it's interesting that this specific part of Banana's post wasn't really touched or mentioned by anyone else that I saw. Food for thought.)

By the way, it is mildly amusing to watch, but just to clarify, I'm male. Do I have a feminine posting style to you?!



The existence of 3 "role prevention" roles is definitely a red flag. It's the worst look for Owen of the three, in my opinion- "Inventor Rolestopper" is really odd, and I'm dubious about the justification as well. Yes, the plane "stopped," but that doesn't quite link to the "Inventor" aspect of it, and the idea of preventing it from happening again should be more linked to the legacy than the role itself, shouldn't it? Am I being too literal here?
#392
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It is confirmable, in a way. So maybe I'll hold off regardless.

Unvote

Although a confirmable ability isn't a confirmable alignment. I've designed roles in the past that give people fake "Inventions" that blow up or don't work.

#393
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@ILikePie5
I still want to lynch Lunatic, but if it starts to get less likely that it will happen, I can jump on someone else’s wagon.
#394
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@Earth
I am fine with literally anyone.
What?? You don't have a single person you think is "solid" Town (besides yourself)?
#395
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@Moozer325
I still want to lynch Lunatic, but if it starts to get less likely that it will happen, I can jump on someone else’s wagon.
A) Luna isn’t an option
B) I thought you trusted Luna
#396
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To be fair, there has been a lot of behavior this game that I've wanted to snapvote. But we have 3-ish hours left, and I want to believe you have a little bit firmer convictions at the moment than "Literally anyone except Banana" (I read down a little farther to see that).

#397
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@Cerulean
Did you even read my posts?
#398
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Banana is Town. If you think Owen is Town then let's switch to Moozer, but I am NOT having town VTNL again.
#399
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@Moozer325
I still want to lynch Lunatic, but if it starts to get less likely that it will happen, I can jump on someone else’s wagon.
Let me get this straight, your primary reason for the death tunnel is that I defended you. I’ve since mentioned that my role relates to role prevention and you claimed strengthener. Does it not make sense to you why I would believe your role is in the game?
#400
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@Lunatic
@Owen_T
I’d rather no lynch than lynch someone I think is likely to flip town. (Lunatic)

Can someone please help me understand why we have to lynch someone (Owen)
No Lynching gets us more time overall if and only if someone gets off a save and there are no extra nightkills.

In a worst-case scenario with no extra nightkills, a Lynch today means we go 7v2 Lynch -> 6v2 Nightkill -> 5v2 Lynch -> 4v2 Nightkill -> 3v2 LyLo, meaning we lose on 3 mischops total.
A No-Lynch means we go 7v2 Nightkill -> 6v2 Lynch -> 5v2 Nightkill -> 4v2 MyLo, meaning we lose on 2 mischops total. So even if we don't lynch, it still sort of "counts" as a mischop.

We could try it, but it would be risky and might also backfire depending on how much manipulation of abilities/info the Mafia can pull off.
#401
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@Earth
Admittedly, I read "I am fine with literally anyone" and saw red.
Topic's author
#402
AustinL0926
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Vote count 1.11 (please tag me if there are any mistakes)

Owen (2/5): Casey, Earth
Luna (1/5): Moozer
Pie (1/5): Luna

Investigators attributed the accident to pilot error, finding that the first officer experienced spatial disorientation and inadvertently placed the aircraft in an unrecoverable dive, while the captain failed to adequately monitor the first officer's actions and the flight path of the aircraft.  - Atlas_Air_Flight_3591
#403
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@ILikePie5
Can you stop being dumb and vote Owen already?
#404
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Alright, I'm free and caught up. Let me get my thoughts together and I’ll post my full reads.
#405
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@Earth
Can you stop being dumb and vote Owen already?
A) We still have time
B) Idt Banana has reached 25
C) I want to hear what WF has to say
#406
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My main issue with letting Owen "self confirm" is that if it is a situation where he's scum and the invention exists, but it blows up or does something else nefarious, we won't know until Day 3 at the absolute earliest- and that's assuming the person holding it doesn't die and the fake nature of it is obvious. Sort of a life-prolonging method, potentially.

For instance, here's an ability I created a while back:
~ Special Delivery (4-shot): Target a player during the night. You will give them an item that they may use during the night, with two attributes selected from the following list. The first is what the item appears to be, the second is what the item actually does. The two attributes may be the same:
-Powerful Heal
-Basic Attack
-Roleblock Target
-Alignment Investigation
-Grant Extra Vote on next day
-Blackmail on next day

#407
whiteflame
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Let's do this. I'm going to separate this into two so I can focus on the claimed people first and the rest after I've had dinner.

Among the claims made so far, since I was asked, the order (from scummiest to least scummy) goes:

Moozer > Owen > Earth > Banana

To my mind, Banana's the obvious one we're not lynching. The pseudo-CC in particular sets her apart, and much as there's room to argue that her scum partner might have pushed her to do that, I don't think the way she did it comes across as coached.

Earth's early Miller claim and general behavior make me townread him a bit more than the other two. I know I said he could potentially take a big swing like this, but I just don't see him going for an early Miller claim. At the very least, he's not my priority.

Owen is a tougher one. His role claim has, essentially, two distinct points of confirmation: the inventor giving out items and the legacy role acting as messenger. It's a bit of an odd claim, but that's not the major problem I have with it. He's jumped back and forth on how he's claimed it, starting by saying that he's a rolestopper-inventor, then that he's an inventor who can give someone else the ability to rolestop, then saying that his justification focuses on the rolestop... even though he just clarified the inventor is his role. I get that the inventor appears to only give out the rolestop item, but it's still weird that he can't seem to keep them straight. I want to give him an NP to use his role, but he's behaviorally all over the place.

And then there's Moozer. I'm still hesitant to lynch him for reasons I've already mentioned about how his role of Strengthener sticks out as odd, even if the legacy role is pulling me in the opposite direction. It seems a little... inside baseball, if that makes any sense, requiring a lot of work of town to figure out how to use it effectively, and I agree with Pie that it doesn't make sense that he has to stay quiet about the number. In part, I wrote that off as "he saw that he would be modkilled if he said it," but I've noticed that Moozer has never said that that would happen. So... I guess he's just not allowed to say the specific number he's been given? What are the limitations on that? Can he give a number close to it? Can we try to guess it and can he give confirmation of whether we're too high or too low? If Austin's set limitations on what he can say about it, then Moozer should have informed us by now on what those limitations are and, at the very least, tried to make use of his knowledge now rather than just waiting to see if he gets to use it.

So, yes, Moozer is my choice among these four.
#408
whiteflame
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@Cerulean
Point taken. There’s a non-zero chance that he’s scum and Austin designed a role with a fake confirmation that gets found out later and could cause major harm. Not sure how much I want to bank on that, but even if he’s role “confirmed” next DP, I wouldn’t write him off.
#409
Casey_Risk
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@whiteflame
Owen is a tougher one. His role claim has, essentially, two distinct points of confirmation: the inventor giving out items and the legacy role acting as messenger.
I don't think the messenger part really counts for anything seeing as it only activates after death. That being said, Owen's protests here really remind me a lot of Shocking Moments when he got mislynched. It feels towny af to me personally.
#410
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@Casey_Risk
Atm, I'm not willing to lynch Owen, so you don't have to worry about that. I'm just very much on the fence about him.
#411
ILikePie5
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@Cerulean
Although a confirmable ability isn't a confirmable alignment. I've designed roles in the past that give people fake "Inventions" that blow up or don't work.
Hmm that’s true. It could just be a fake scum rolestopper/inventor.
#412
ILikePie5
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@whiteflame
The issue with Moozer is that Strengthener makes sense in this setup. Could he be a scum Strengthener? I think it’s very possible assuming Banana, Owen, and Lunatic are all town. But it’s just as possible he’s a Town Strengthener and the other 3 are town as well. We’re probably going to have to rely on behavior for Moozer. His flip flip on Lunatic has me worried a lot.
#413
ILikePie5
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@Casey_Risk
I don't think the messenger part really counts for anything seeing as it only activates after death. That being said, Owen's protests here really remind me a lot of Shocking Moments when he got mislynched. It feels towny af to me personally.
Don’t forget that this is the same Owen who steamrolled town with Wylted and Barney with his fake CC. I think we give him less credit than he deserves as a player. I think for me today it’s between Moozer and Owen.
#414
ILikePie5
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@Earth
@Lunatic
@whiteflame
@Casey_Risk
@Cerulean
What are your thoughts on a Scum Strengthener?
#415
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So I guess if this is just a lynch for information, then Earth's role doesn't have any utility for town, so he is who I would opt for.
#416
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@Earth
By the way, why is it that you suddenly determined that I was the objectively right person to lynch.

Earlier you said you didn't care who we lynched, bedsides banana, and now you are saying it is stupid to not vote me.
#417
Earth
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@ILikePie5
It's possible given all the role stoppers.
#418
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@ILikePie5
The issue with Moozer is that Strengthener makes sense in this setup. Could he be a scum Strengthener? I think it’s very possible assuming Banana, Owen, and Lunatic are all town. But it’s just as possible he’s a Town Strengthener and the other 3 are town as well. We’re probably going to have to rely on behavior for Moozer. His flip flip on Lunatic has me worried a lot.
If there really are so many roles in the game that manipulate, then I can see the basis for there being a Strengthener. He did also claim before all these role manipulations started rolling in, so I can understand why he looks a little better on that front. That being said, I'll point out that Earth also claimed Strengthener during the Ace Attorney game and it was largely townread for the same reason, despite him being scum.

What are your thoughts on a Scum Strengthener?
It'd be a weird choice, though given that he could use it on his scum partner, there's clearly some scum utility to the role.
#419
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@Owen_T
It's stupid not to vote for anyone. So if I had to choose between three people to lynch and I townread one of them, naturally I will vote one or the other.
#420
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That just leaves the unclaimed, myself included. I wouldn't sleep on me if I were you guys, but needless to say, I'll be leaving myself out of this.

It's significantly harder to pick among this group, mainly because this tends to be the set (aside from Cerulean) who I just don't read consistently from game to game. I really only have two chunks to work from in this case.

Cerulean and Luna re the ones that are in my town lean pile. Luna, in particular, softclaiming some capacity at role prevention  after two had already been given pushes him a little bit more into the town pile. He set me off a little earlier on when he wasn't posting as much, but since he's become a more regular participant in the DP, his posts have come off more townie. Cerulean, meanwhile, has had a pretty strong fixation on Owen that comes off as pretty townie, especially since Owen has claimed. I could see him pushing for that lynch more strongly before and backing off if he was scum, but the continued effort on this front doesn't fit what I'd expect from him as scum.

That leaves Pie and Casey. I'll be honest, I'm not sure I buy either of them as scum, but they're both pretty solidly in my null pile. Pie's been perhaps a little more aggressive than usual, but since I was on a similar wavelength with him and have largely returned to that same wavelength, I can see why he arrived at that point and has stuck with it. His decision to step off the lynch because there was pushback against lynching Moozer also made sense, but I can see him doing all this equally as town or scum, so it doesn't push me in either direction. Casey's been giving some good reads and analysis as well, but like with Pie, I just haven't seen anything that sets them in either the town or scum pile. A lot of this looks like Casey when they're town, but I've been fooled on that front before.