Pie Recycled Roles Mafia DP1

Author: ILikePie5

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#61
Lunatic
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@Moozer325
Okay yeah, it’s the Narcos mafia. Not sure what that is, but that part was written in English.
Pretty sure I remember everyone getting their role PM's in spanish in that game, so it checks out. 
#62
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@Lunatic
I'm from US House of Representatives Mafia 
#63
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@Lunatic
Lol which is why you were frustrating me in that game because you were scumreading me, but also calling out who I should be protecting each night lol. I felt like if I didn't follow who you were telling me to protect, we would just keep having the same argument about my intentions etc, meanwhile whiteflame knew he never had to worry about a doctor protection and could roleblock the other power roles freely lmao.

Case in point, we probably shouldn't tell the mafia who we are targeting unless we are using it to WIFOM or bait out actions. Or maybe I shouldn't have listed to your suggestions and just done whatever anyway lol. I am at fault for that too. 
Ye that was not my best game in hindsight. imo I think everyone should just make their own judgement and only out their role if it's LYLO or they have an investigative result.
#64
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I'm feel vaguely unsettled so far because I have a slight townread on everyone except Savant, who I scumread even in games where he's town.
#65
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Game Claims in order of how fast they were claimed:

Savant- US Senate
Lunatic- Ancient Roman Battles
Earth- Civil War Generals
Wylted- Throne of Glass Mafia
Whiteflame- The Legend of Zelda (Ocarina of Time)
Austin- Governors Mafia
JoeBob- 13 Reasons Why
Moozer- Narcos
Casey- US House of Representative
#66
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@AustinL0926
I'm feel vaguely unsettled so far because I have a slight townread on everyone except Savant, who I scumread even in games where he's town.
Why is that? I generally have the same paranoia with whiteflame, because I feel he plays similar as either affiliation for the most part. 
#67
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I guess it should be stated that SOP claims, like Miller, Paranoid Gun Owner/Granny, and negative utility roles in general should probably claim. 
#68
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Gonna shower before work here soon and i'll be back on here in a couple of hours.
#69
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@Lunatic
I guess it should be stated that SOP claims, like Miller, Paranoid Gun Owner/Granny, and negative utility roles in general should probably claim. 
Figured that was a given, but best to put it out there just in case.

#70
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@Lunatic
Why is that? I generally have the same paranoia with whiteflame, because I feel he plays similar as either affiliation for the most part. 
Also, don't blame you.

#71
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@Moozer325
Capasa, mi negro 
#72
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@Lunatic
Why is that? I generally have the same paranoia with whiteflame, because I feel he plays similar as either affiliation for the most part. 
I feel Savant doesn't really towntell at all (the subtle things that can't really be described - like sometimes you look at a post with no game-advancing information yet you *know* it comes from town). Not really his fault but I always tend to view players who don't towntell as slightly scummy by default, which forces me to manually overcorrect.
#73
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I disagree that negative utility roles should claim but I don't have the energy to defend that position.  I guess maybe PGO should but not Miller. 
#74
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I had a loooooong day today, so I’m just going to not do anything. If you need me, tag me, but other than that, I’m checking out for the day.
#75
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@Lunatic
@whiteflame
I realized I miscalculated the odds earlier because I failed to account for scum already knowing two games in use. If I'd asked about two games at the start, I would actually have a 53% chance of identifying one game that wasn't already in use. If I was scum trying to gain towncred, I would probably just claim my actual game, but it does make me slightly less confident about Luna and Earth.
#76
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I just wanted to point out before I zonk out. A new season of the Boys just dropped so you could potentially see america's her get indicted.  I know I plan to. 

#freehomelander


#77
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@AustinL0926
@Casey_Risk
So we have a claim for US Senate mafia, US House of Reps mafia, and US Governors mafia. I don't think it's likely that all three are in the game. Since Casey claimed last, and because I think he'd be less likely to consider this than Austin when fake claiming, he's now a slight scum read.
#78
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@Savant
I guess I can kind of see why you'd find that weird, but I don't really buy it. You'd have to assume that Casey went for the harder option of fakeclaiming, but chose a fakeclaim that would make themself look more suspicious than necessary.
#79
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I honestly think we're all overestimating the chance of scum fakeclaiming here tbh. Like can anyone tell me what would be the benefit of doing so as compared to scum just claiming their real game?
#80
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I just checked and the missing ones are Bakugan Brawlers, Heroes of Olympus, and Mahabharata. The latter two are expected, since Pie probably didn't want to reuse any recent roles. The former is possibly in the game but wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't.
#81
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@Savant
I realized I miscalculated the odds earlier because I failed to account for scum already knowing two games in use. If I'd asked about two games at the start, I would actually have a 53% chance of identifying one game that wasn't already in use. If I was scum trying to gain towncred, I would probably just claim my actual game, but it does make me slightly less confident about Luna and Earth.
Point taken, I hadn't considered their own claims as part of the number, either. So it was a little less risky to fake a claim early, though as you say, I think scum are pretty likely to just give their own game since it still gives them a clear set of fake claims. It has its own risks, but it makes sense in its own way.

#82
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@AustinL0926
I honestly think we're all overestimating the chance of scum fakeclaiming here tbh. Like can anyone tell me what would be the benefit of doing so as compared to scum just claiming their real game?
I was thinking about this last game when Earth decided to fake claim his game. I'd say there are two benefits.

First, if the game you currently have limits your options or overlaps a lot with other games, faking a claim nets you opportunities to select from a different set. It requires analysis of the game you're choosing and some analysis of the others in play, but depending on those factors, there may be a valid reason to switch.

Second, though this came up much later in the last game, is the possibility that town could use it to focus their PoE a bit by considering the ways scum in a given game could have manipulated their results. Casey correctly called out that I was probably the Ninja in the last game because he noted that there was a Ninja in my game and he hadn't seen me move when I attempted to perform the NK. It's not proof positive, but it does allow for more than just guessing about probable scum roles if scum claims their own game. If they claim a different game, that may be a means to misdirect lynches instead.
#83
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Anyway, it's late, just wanted to get out some thoughts before calling it a night. Pick this back up in the morning.
#84
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@AustinL0926
You'd have to assume that Casey went for the harder option of fakeclaiming
How was it a harder option? Everyone else had claimed so he knew no one would counter him. And if scum clearly has a certain role like role blocker or Janitor, it can give away what game they are from.
#85
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@Savant
Since Casey claimed last, and because I think he'd be less likely to consider this than Austin when fake claiming, he's now a slight scum read.
To be fair, I would have claimed earlier, but I've been really busy at work and have hardly had a moment to take a break, aside from my actual designated breaks. My last two hours look like they're going to be quieter, but everyone's probably going to be offline anyway, so 🤷
#86
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too many numbers, im on summer break, im not doing math
#87
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@WyIted
I disagree that negative utility roles should claim but I don't have the energy to defend that position.  I guess maybe PGO should but not Miller. 
Its all fun and games until the cop investigates the miller and then no one believes the person copped was miller.
#88
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@Savant
So we have a claim for US Senate mafia, US House of Reps mafia, and US Governors mafia. I don't think it's likely that all three are in the game. 

Why?
#89
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@Lunatic
Same reason I don't think two doctors would be in the game. I think Pie would spread out roles.
#90
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@AustinL0926
I honestly think we're all overestimating the chance of scum fakeclaiming here tbh. Like can anyone tell me what would be the benefit of doing so as compared to scum just claiming their real game?
Im fine with them claiming from their real game, its just nice to know they are locked into that subset of roles and have to be careful about what they claim because of it. Its not like they can't fake claim, just that it narrows their options down a bit from where they were otherwise.