Pie Recycled Roles Mafia DP1

Author: ILikePie5

Posts

Read-only
Total: 843
#481
Casey_Risk
Casey_Risk's avatar
Debates: 5
Posts: 1,031
3
3
8
Casey_Risk's avatar
Casey_Risk
3
3
8
477 by joe feels very towny. I feel like if he was scum he would have just lurked and asked his partner for some better reads. this seems to be a genuinely confused townie.
Agreed, if we are to lynch someone between JoeBob and Earth, I think I'd rather lynch Earth.
Topic's author
#482
ILikePie5
ILikePie5's avatar
Debates: 3
Posts: 15,167
3
7
10
ILikePie5's avatar
ILikePie5
3
7
10
Official Vote Count:

Earth (3/5) - Austin, Lunatic, Wylted 
Austin (1/5) - Moozer

Please let me know if there are any mistakes

#483
whiteflame
whiteflame's avatar
Debates: 27
Posts: 4,825
4
6
10
whiteflame's avatar
whiteflame
4
6
10
-->
@AustinL0926
-First, let's agree it's pretty unlikely for either of them to be fakeclaiming. Even if we assume it's possible, the risk-reward ratio doesn't make sense. In the best case scenario, they simply get a different game with no increase in towncred. In the worst case, they instantly get lynched DP1. Especially in the chaos of everyone pressuring for game claims early, I find it highly unlikely that one of them chose to take this risk.

-Mafia roles on Joe's game: Actress, Watcher, Ninja
-Mafia roles on Earth's game: Roleblocker, JOAT (Rolecop/Strongman/Janitor), Tracker

Joe's game doesn't have a roleblocker, so he can't be covering for his own role. It's possible that if he was scum, his buddy would be covering for him instead, but this seems unlikely, since in case of any Joe flip then that would implicate the few games that have a scum roleblocker.
I think you make a pretty good point, at least on the JoeBob front. If he doesn't have reason to cover for an RB during the NP, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense that he'd fake claim an RB.

I will point out, though, that Earth is more prone to taking big risks with his fake claim. He did so last game with the JOAT role. I think he'd be more likely to take a bigger risk than he did with his claim this DP (the JOAT meant he could be CC'd on four different roles), but it's not impossible that he'd take this direction with it this time around.
#484
WyIted
WyIted's avatar
Debates: 32
Posts: 5,466
3
4
9
WyIted's avatar
WyIted
3
4
9
I don't actually feel good about joebobs reemergence. 

Fuck it let's do this. The Earth lynch is starting to feel like the moozer lynch. We will have to fight for a joebob lynch and the only reason it makes sense that joebob would be the hardest lynch out of all the useless people is because he is scum.

unvote VTL Joebob
#485
WyIted
WyIted's avatar
Debates: 32
Posts: 5,466
3
4
9
WyIted's avatar
WyIted
3
4
9
-->
@whiteflame
Let's do the joebob lynch. I am on board and it just feels like the lynch that is viable but not as easy as the rest with no clear indication of why it would be the least easy other than scum influence
#486
WyIted
WyIted's avatar
Debates: 32
Posts: 5,466
3
4
9
WyIted's avatar
WyIted
3
4
9
A scum.lynch can be this easy, just not on DP1
#487
whiteflame
whiteflame's avatar
Debates: 27
Posts: 4,825
4
6
10
whiteflame's avatar
whiteflame
4
6
10
-->
@WyIted
Let's do the joebob lynch. I am on board and it just feels like the lynch that is viable but not as easy as the rest with no clear indication of why it would be the least easy other than scum influence
Behaviorally, I understand where you’re coming from. I’m not as certain when it comes to his claim. At minimum, I see some reason to give him the opportunity to confirm his role, so I’ll need to think about it.

As a general rule, though, just because a lynch is coming off as more difficult to get through isn’t going to make me more likely to get on it. You can chalk it up to scum influence, but I’m not so sure.
#488
Casey_Risk
Casey_Risk's avatar
Debates: 5
Posts: 1,031
3
3
8
Casey_Risk's avatar
Casey_Risk
3
3
8
Whoever we decide to lynch, we need to come to a consensus soon. Today is the last day for this DP.
#489
AustinL0926
AustinL0926's avatar
Debates: 33
Posts: 2,185
3
5
9
AustinL0926's avatar
AustinL0926
3
5
9
-->
@WyIted
Don't really get that logic. Just because a lynch is harder doesn't mean it's more likely to flip scum, nor vice versa. The Savant lynch in Mahabharata was ridiculously easy because whiteflame decided to cut his losses, while my lynch in Invincible took 20 pages despite Pie fighting tooth and nail to push it through. It has to do more with the gamestate, the accused's activity, and scum strategy than actual alignment.
#490
WyIted
WyIted's avatar
Debates: 32
Posts: 5,466
3
4
9
WyIted's avatar
WyIted
3
4
9
-->
@AustinL0926
Yeah and I can see the need to do that, but if we assume either joebob or earth is guilty but at least one of them is innocent and look at the fact you can literally pick either one and there is zero social pressure to pick one over the other than the massive earth support just doesn't make sense to me
#491
AustinL0926
AustinL0926's avatar
Debates: 33
Posts: 2,185
3
5
9
AustinL0926's avatar
AustinL0926
3
5
9
-->
@WyIted
but if we assume either joebob or earth is guilty but at least one of them is innocent
Can you explain why you think this?

#492
Lunatic
Lunatic's avatar
Debates: 3
Posts: 8,951
3
3
6
Lunatic's avatar
Lunatic
3
3
6
-->
@AustinL0926
Invincible was my game not pies
#493
Lunatic
Lunatic's avatar
Debates: 3
Posts: 8,951
3
3
6
Lunatic's avatar
Lunatic
3
3
6
I’m still 50/50 on joebob vs earth. Earth re emergence seems so lack luster though. Kind of the same with joebob but like earth knows he’s one of the biggest lunch trains and barely tried making a case for anyone not to lynch him. He seems indifferent. Would he be that indifferent as mafia? Looking at the last game he seemed like it in the thread but that he was more tactical in the discord so it’s hard to say. He could just be banking that we will be indecisive and decide he’s too mislynchable. I don’t like it.

Maybe I’m like 60 on earth and 40 on joebob. But Joebob barely really seems to be trying either. Scum is probably in one of my town reads honestly. I am hoping day phase 2 will be easier to re evaluate things on. I feel like I agree with Whiteflame that neither of these lynches are optimal and are just as likely to result in a mislynch. But I don’t really have a reason to lynch anyone else. And at the end of the day if your not actively trying to help town solve the game then I have no reason to assume you are town. That’s where I’m at with earth and joebob. And considering I just got out of a mafia champ game where two / three scum were coasting along I am a little more suspicious of coasting players atm. For the record we didn’t lynch one scum in that game. It was brutal
#494
AustinL0926
AustinL0926's avatar
Debates: 33
Posts: 2,185
3
5
9
AustinL0926's avatar
AustinL0926
3
5
9
-->
@Lunatic
Invincible was my game not pies
I know, I was referring to how Pie spent that entire DP trying to mislynch me lol
#495
Casey_Risk
Casey_Risk's avatar
Debates: 5
Posts: 1,031
3
3
8
Casey_Risk's avatar
Casey_Risk
3
3
8
I don't have a strong leaning towards either Earth or JoeBob, but I'd rather lynch Earth just because if JoeBob is telling the truth about his role, it's a very helpful one for the town.
#496
whiteflame
whiteflame's avatar
Debates: 27
Posts: 4,825
4
6
10
whiteflame's avatar
whiteflame
4
6
10
-->
@Lunatic
And considering I just got out of a mafia champ game where two / three scum were coasting along I am a little more suspicious of coasting players atm. For the record we didn’t lynch one scum in that game. It was brutal
That's rough dude. I know we've had some instances of it here, but it's particularly brutal in a game where you have to keep up with so much to have so many arguments and finger pointing be directed at town.
Topic's author
#497
ILikePie5
ILikePie5's avatar
Debates: 3
Posts: 15,167
3
7
10
ILikePie5's avatar
ILikePie5
3
7
10
Official Vote Count:

Earth (2/5) - Austin, Lunatic
Austin (1/5) - Moozer
JoeBob (1/5) - Wylted

Please let me know if there are any mistakes

#498
Casey_Risk
Casey_Risk's avatar
Debates: 5
Posts: 1,031
3
3
8
Casey_Risk's avatar
Casey_Risk
3
3
8
We need to work towards a conclusion, and right now the scales seem to be tipping in favor of lynching Earth. I don't love it, but I think it's probably our best option for now. 

VTL Earth 
#499
Lunatic
Lunatic's avatar
Debates: 3
Posts: 8,951
3
3
6
Lunatic's avatar
Lunatic
3
3
6
-->
@whiteflame
That's rough dude. I know we've had some instances of it here, but it's particularly brutal in a game where you have to keep up with so much to have so many arguments and finger pointing be directed at town.


lol liberdon was one of the players I’m talking about. I voted her day phase one. Everyone told me I was crazy and that she always plays like that, so eventually I let myself be convinced of that logic. She was never pressured again and openly bandwagoned the entire game. She even did a coin flip on a lynch lol. People just let her get away with that.
#500
JoeBob
JoeBob's avatar
Debates: 3
Posts: 1,597
3
3
7
JoeBob's avatar
JoeBob
3
3
7
-->
@Lunatic
She even did a coin flip on a lynch lol
Jeez
#501
Savant
Savant's avatar
Debates: 23
Posts: 1,999
3
7
6
Savant's avatar
Savant
3
7
6
-->
@AustinL0926
I have more time now and I may have been a bit too harsh earlier, so I'll explain how I'm calculating odds here.

If scum knew only 6 existing roles (JoeBob would know 8 as scum, but suppose he only knew 6), then this leaves 6 additional games, 3 of which are taken. The odds of asking about one game and it being in use is 1/2. If that game is in use, the odds of asking about a second game and it being in use is 2/5, since they are left with 5 games, 3 of which are not is use. So the odds that scum would fail to get a fakeclaim in those circumstances are (1/2)*(2/5) = 1/5. Conversely, the odds are 4/5 that scum would correctly identify a game they could use to fakeclaim.

The odds that the game with a town drunk is an available fakeclaim would be low, though, and very convenient for scum. So I don't think JoeBob's claim is fake.
#502
AustinL0926
AustinL0926's avatar
Debates: 33
Posts: 2,185
3
5
9
AustinL0926's avatar
AustinL0926
3
5
9
-->
@Savant
Alright, that makes sense. Didn't consider that several games were available.
#503
AustinL0926
AustinL0926's avatar
Debates: 33
Posts: 2,185
3
5
9
AustinL0926's avatar
AustinL0926
3
5
9
Fwiw, I'm not happy with either Joebob or Earth is playing. I'm leaning Earth mostly because Joe's role is confirmable and I actually do have a slight difference in reads (Joe lean town, Earth lean scum) - in particular:

I think it is funny I am claiming Commuter because I do remember saying something along the lines of scum fakeclaiming commuter a lot.
It feels just... totally defeatist. Earth gets on to see a bandwagon on him, and his only post is "I did something that scum would do", then promptly leaves without even offering anything in the way of a defense. It doesn't seem characteristic for him.


#504
AustinL0926
AustinL0926's avatar
Debates: 33
Posts: 2,185
3
5
9
AustinL0926's avatar
AustinL0926
3
5
9
Also, no matter how Earth flips, we need to take a serious look at Moozer next DP.

Topic's author
#505
ILikePie5
ILikePie5's avatar
Debates: 3
Posts: 15,167
3
7
10
ILikePie5's avatar
ILikePie5
3
7
10
Official Vote Count:

Earth (3/5) - Austin, Lunatic, Casey
Austin (1/5) - Moozer
JoeBob (1/5) - Wylted

Please let me know if there are any mistakes

#506
JoeBob
JoeBob's avatar
Debates: 3
Posts: 1,597
3
3
7
JoeBob's avatar
JoeBob
3
3
7
-->
@AustinL0926
Also, no matter how Earth flips, we need to take a serious look at Moozer next DP.
agreed.
#507
Moozer325
Moozer325's avatar
Debates: 20
Posts: 1,187
3
2
8
Moozer325's avatar
Moozer325
3
2
8
Alright, I’m back. Again, sorry for the horrible planning on my part. I’ll take the next half hour to do some reading, and then I’ll get back to you.
#508
WyIted
WyIted's avatar
Debates: 32
Posts: 5,466
3
4
9
WyIted's avatar
WyIted
3
4
9
-->
@Moozer325
Vote joebob nigga, that way we can get things moving in a different direction 
#509
Savant
Savant's avatar
Debates: 23
Posts: 1,999
3
7
6
Savant's avatar
Savant
3
7
6
-->
@whiteflame
@AustinL0926
@WyIted
Moozer and Earth both seem like easy lynches, and Earth is back online. Is there really a reason to lynch Earth over Moozer? I know we have claims, but maybe we should push Moozer for a claim since we were pretty close to lynching him. Either way, I'd wait for Moozer to post a bit more before we decide.
#510
WyIted
WyIted's avatar
Debates: 32
Posts: 5,466
3
4
9
WyIted's avatar
WyIted
3
4
9
-->
@Savant
I think the moozer lynch is off the table for me.