Breath of the Wild Mafia DP1

Author: Moozer325

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#421
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@AustinL0926
But how will whiteflame ever confirm himself?
I guess it depends on what roles are left to confirm him, track him or whatever. But if he dies to protect a town player, it is just as good for town because it wastes scum's night kill and increases amount of future targets for scum (more confirmed town players, so with 1 kill per night, scum cant keep up with town lynch due to too many confirmed town players as targets).

I am not lynching whiteflame this dp. I know even town players can act scummy, so if you think he is acting scummy, its not exactly an obvious choice. Still, he is a bodyguard, which I find a bit odd that both doctor and bodyguard are in game, but I am not ready to follow that trail to death now, but wait until more evidence appears in dp2.
#422
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@whiteflame
@AustinL0926
Right now, we need someone who is a feasible lynch target today, and I don't see any of this catfighting accomplishing that. For all that has been said about me, JoeBob, and Whiteflame, I don't think most of the town has expressed an interest in lynching any of us on day one. Lunatic could jump the gun and do things his own way, but I think he's going to take town input into strong consideration.

Casey's name has been brought up a few times, and their absence has made them more suspicious, especially since they were online an hour ago. Casey will have an opportunity to defend themselves, and I hope they post something soon. But until then,

VTL Casey_Risk
#423
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@Best.Korea
That would still save a confirmed town player from night kill.
You're talking about using this to get information. If the information we get leads to a mislynch next DP, saving a town player during the NP will not have been worth the cost, since it will likely put town at 4-2 after NP2 (my death during NP1 + mislynching Casey next DP + an NK during NP2, assuming that Casey is town of course). That's MYLO, and we'll gain absolutely no information from my death, so we're relying on results from investigations from those two NPs, all of which could have been manipulated given that scum know Earth's role, to provide that info. I don't see that as significantly better than having a solidly townread player going into DP2 (Luna after he uses his role to lynch someone this DP), using my role to potentially block an NK (which could save us a loss this NP rather than just sacrificing me for information that scum can manipulate), and getting at least some reduction to PoE (honestly, prefer removing Casey by lynch to just get her out of the potential scum pool). It gives us the same number of NPs to get information, and the only difference is it could potentially put us at LYLO by DP3 instead of MYLO.


#424
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@Best.Korea
Still, he is a bodyguard, which I find a bit odd that both doctor and bodyguard are in game
Are you the doctor then? I don't think anyone else has claimed that role.
#425
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@Best.Korea
Still, he is a bodyguard, which I find a bit odd that both doctor and bodyguard are in game, but I am not ready to follow that trail to death now, but wait until more evidence appears in dp2.
Can you explain how you're confident in this?

#426
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@Best.Korea
I guess it depends on what roles are left to confirm him, track him or whatever. But if he dies to protect a town player, it is just as good for town because it wastes scum's night kill and increases amount of future targets for scum (more confirmed town players, so with 1 kill per night, scum cant keep up with town lynch due to too many confirmed town players as targets).
Yeah, but the problem is that with Earth claiming Cop, it's pretty unlikely that there's a Tracker who can confirm whiteflame, not even to mention it wouldn't confirm his role. The only way he confirms his role is by protecting a town player, but I predict that he'll "conveniently" miss the NK target each night. I know this because I was in a past game with Barney where he fakeclaimed bodyguard and no one thought twice about his lack of success.

I am not lynching whiteflame this dp. I know even town players can act scummy, so if you think he is acting scummy, its not exactly an obvious choice. 
I mean, scummy players act scummy. If you don't lynch scummy players, how do you win? Mechanics are nice, but you still need some behavioral analysis. Not to mention he's also been backtracking on his claim, which town players just don't do.

#427
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@whiteflame
 If the information we get leads to a mislynch next DP, saving a town player during the NP will not have been worth the cost,
Scum manipulating night kill would save confirmed town player, where as it stands, its likely a confirmed town player dies next np.
We have to lynch casey anyway, so if its a mislynch, its probably an unavoidable mislynch anyway, but yeah, I guess too many things can go wrong if we are put at 4 - 2 instead of 5 - 2. 

So, are you in favor of voting casey this dp then?

I dont see what other solution we have. I tried to think of ways to confirm her, but its such a horrible role.
#428
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@AustinL0926
First off, I don't know why you'd give me all these responses without fucking tagging me. That's bullshit dude, especially when you're putting a vote on me.

As for the rest of this, I'll respond to the relevant points when I'm not in the middle of prepping samples for work.

#429
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@AustinL0926
Can you explain how you're confident in this?
Well, I happen to be a doctor.

#430
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@Best.Korea
Scum manipulating night kill would save confirmed town player, where as it stands, its likely a confirmed town player dies next np.
We have to lynch casey anyway, so if its a mislynch, its probably an unavoidable mislynch anyway, but yeah, I guess too many things can go wrong if we are put at 4 - 2 instead of 5 - 2. 

So, are you in favor of voting casey this dp then?

I dont see what other solution we have. I tried to think of ways to confirm her, but its such a horrible role.
I don't like it, but it's looking more and more like it's the only option anyone else is considering at this point.
#431
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@Best.Korea
So your role doesn't make it obvious you are town, especially with a possible bg in play. You are hypothetically confirmable, but you could also be scum and lying.
#432
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@Savant
Are you the doctor then? I don't think anyone else has claimed that role.
Yeah, I think its obvious from my character anyway, but I can protect myself or some other confirmed town player, but I wont say this dp who will I protect.
#433
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By the logic everyone is using, I should have just said I was confirmable since I can maybe be confirmed under some circumstances.
#434
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At least I was upfront about not being confirmable. Do people have some aversion to just being straightforward in this game?
#435
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@Savant
So your role doesn't make it obvious you are town, especially with a possible bg in play
Bodyguard and doctor isnt that uncommon, but yeah, I am kinda wondering why both are in game. Maybe because my role isnt typical doctor, but 2x doctor.
#436
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@whiteflame
First off, I don't know why you'd give me all these responses without fucking tagging me. That's bullshit dude, especially when you're putting a vote on me.
Fine, my bad for not tagging you. I've been playing mafia on another website these days and it auto-notifies people when you quote, so sorry on that.

That being said, you seem awfully sensitive to votes on you. I wonder why...

#437
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Omg people stop claiming your number of shots, WHY would that help town in any way
#438
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@Best.Korea
And you were the person who claimed... "100% confirmable" earlier. Seriously, do people just not understand what confirmable means these days?
#439
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@Savant
Overwhelming majority of games have doctor and cop. Its bad to doubt a role which just happens to be in almost every game. Plus, my character heals wounds. I dont know how much more obvious does it need to get.
#440
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On the bright side, that confirms my suspicion of whiteflame even more. Doctor, bodyguard, and bulletproof/bleeder is a ridiculous density of protective roles in a C9 game. 
#441
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@Best.Korea
That's not confirmable, that's just inherently likely due to the setup. They're distinct things. Now I'm starting to doubt the other players who claimed they're confirmable.
#442
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@Best.Korea
Overwhelming majority of games have doctor
It'd definitely not a certainty if there is a bodyguard.
#443
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@AustinL0926
Now I'm starting to doubt the other players who claimed they're confirmable
Did you just get here? lol
#444
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@Savant
I think it's more likely that whiteflame is the outlier here tbh.
#445
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@AustinL0926
I care that you posted a long response to me, gave specific reasons why you sussed me, and voted me in a series of posts without tagging me on any of them. That’s basic common courtesy. You know how the tagging system works on this site, so yeah, I’m a little frustrated that you posted that much and conveniently kept me out of it. You want to scumread me for calling you out for it? Fine, whatever.
#446
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@AustinL0926
I'm mainly hesitant with BK because he said "My role 100% confirms me as town as soon as claimed" which is just blatantly false. I thought he was some version of the innocent child or something.
#447
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@AustinL0926
That's not confirmable, that's just inherently likely
Well, if something is 95% likely, its as good as confirmed in a game which just happens to be based on guessing and hoping we guessed correctly. Besides, even mod asked a question about if he should notify a doctor. So, if that doesnt convince you, nothing ever will.
#448
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@whiteflame
I care that you posted a long response to me, gave specific reasons why you sussed me, and voted me in a series of posts without tagging me on any of them. That’s basic common courtesy. You know how the tagging system works on this site, so yeah, I’m a little frustrated that you posted that much and conveniently kept me out of it. You want to scumread me for calling you out for it? Fine, whatever.
I'm not scumreading you for pointing out that specific mistake of mine, and you know that. I scumread you for everything else this DP. More strawmanning please.

#449
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@whiteflame
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@AustinL0926
mod asked a question about if he should notify a doctor
That's true. Definitely makes BK's claim more likely than WF's.
#450
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@Best.Korea
Well, if something is 95% likely, its as good as confirmed in a game which just happens to be based on guessing and hoping we guessed correctly. Besides, even mod asked a question about if he should notify a doctor. So, if that doesnt convince you, nothing ever will.
Huh, I forgot about that. Yeah, I think you're tentatively mod-confirmed then (I feel bad that Moozer is giving us an unfair advantage like this, but you gotta take what you get).