The Heroes of Olympus Mafia DP3

Author: ILikePie5

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WyIted
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@whiteflame
still think Vader is the obvious lynch for this DP. I gave a great deal of reasoning for that last DP, and given the result
I don't see the harm in waiting one more dp. The scum team eliminated earth narrowing the scum pool and may fuck up and narrow the scum pool again. 
AustinL0926
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Also based on my experience of how Barney played in the Battlebots Mafia I hosted, he seems like he generally doesn't take things too seriously as town - e.g. he came in hot, VTLed BK after managing to mangle reading a basic message, and then immediately pretended it never happened when RM pointed it out. He also didn't give many reads (or any substance for that matter).

With that being said, his play this game does seem a little bit different - more passive, but with some strategic moments of activity. So I'm not exactly sure of how his play this game can be compared to his meta.
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@WyIted
Agreed. I also agree that the scum team is either you and Austin or Austin and Ragnar so I think an Austin lynch next dp I'd the best option
Care to explain why a Vader and Barney team isn't possible..?
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@AustinL0926
That being said, I think you still have a lot of scummy behavior to answer for. In particular, it seems like you're trying to clear yourself with thematic/mechanical analysis and ignoring many of the behavioral reads on you. Barney is lurky, but you've been actively scummy. Assuming we VTNL today, what should make me, and the other townies, more compelled to vote Barney tmrw than you?
I would hope their would be some form of information that doesn't make it come down to that, but if has too, I will say that as scum it is much more easier to win when you are sitting from behind the scenes when town are discussing and chime in every now and then versus being on the active forefront of every DP and trying your hardest to be honest about your thoughts and feeling versus posting a dashboard
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@Barney
I protected whiteflame the first night, and Austin last night. Obviously no one tried to kill either of them.
Your protection of Austin should hacmve failed if he is ascetic
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@AustinL0926
I buy Barney's roleclaim. Based on my role and justification, it seemed obvious there was at least one protective role in the game.
Earth seems like that protective role tbh
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@AustinL0926
behavioral reads on you
I'm very aware of your behavioral reads on me but I am going at whiteflame's reads because all of DP it was inherently mechanic based evidence. He gave some behavioral insight that I am planning to respond too 
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@whiteflame
I want to point out since nobody has noticed that Harry potter is a ridiculous claim and barney won as scum in orange is the new black by claiming to b the cat and the claim wasn't scrutinized at all

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@Vader
This is an excellent point and makes me think a lot more into Barney. We for sure know that there was some form of protective role in this game and that makes Barney's claim a lot more tough to believe in this scenario. With Ascetic Bodyguard and Lightning Rod, I feel like one of these is lying and I'm more inclined to say it's Barne
Barney claimed to target Austin to protect as well and never gave feedback such as "action failed" which is odd. 

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@AustinL0926
  • Care to explain why a Vader and Barney team isn't possible..?
I forget my reasoning for that and just like Chesterton post I am unlikely to change my opinion on that until I remember why I had it to start with
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I guess me and whiteflame are close to confirmed town so I will just make my opinions clear and he should make his opinions clear this DP and our statements should be carefully heeded next DP and we should put ourselves at lylo. 

If barney is in fact town than he should probably flip a coin between me and whiteflaem and scum should be forced to remove somebody from one of our scum pools. 
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VTNL
Vader
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@whiteflame

- Pie has a variety of games with varying amount of 1x, 2x roles, and even has a joat with multiple 1x's, just like your role giving role.
You have presented absolutely no similar examples... oh wait. You have given one. The one where scum has the only X-shot set of roles. My "role giving role" is pretty distinct from an X-shot role.
Your argument was essentially, there was only 1x role, therefore, this is likely a sus claim. I presented you evidence that there was roles with only 1x. Was this on the mafia side? Yes. But however these roles and 1x's were scrambled up between the two in a variety of games that I have looked from Pie with varying combinations. The point was that this type of analysis is essentially useless for a role madness game because mod psyche can only take you so far (besides the vanilla being non existant). You keep harping on such.

You are using a mod psyche in a role madness game where there is no consistency at all.
So, let me get this straight:
You've presented a set of 4 games that Pie has modded
Claimed that there were consistencies to them despite all of them being role madness games (seriously, note the lack of Vanillas)
Consistencies in having a 1x role. Consistencies in vanillas. Don't see the issue but sure
I pointed out that the consistencies between them don't track with the existence of your role
Now, you're backtracking on that and claiming that there's "no consistency at all" because they are role madness games.
There is no consistency to the amount of 1x roles there are given and in a role madness, it's what helps balances town the best. This the type of inconsistency I have tried to tell. 
*slow clap* Brilliant maneuver. Honestly, if you were town, you'd scumread the fuck out of this right along with me.
I'd lean more on behavior and role analysis from themes I know, but good job assumption fallacy

- We have to look at the behavior analysis of the games and some of the results depending how much we trust it
I have looked at behavioral analysis. Last DP. Where you claimed 1X Cop unprompted despite that being a) blatantly anti-town, b) a clear effort to look townie by claiming early, and c) largely useless information in a DP where I was not on anyone's FoS.
You were on my FoS through my reads that I gave you on DP1. I gave you the explanation why I chose you over my other target. I still don't get what this proves. With your role being confirmed and the cop on you that I gave, we now essentially have you confirmed as town and BK likely as town, meaning for you it's down to 4 choices. My information I leaked was not useless.

Yes. I stated that I would've claimed differently now that I look back at it. This is my first time realistically playing a full mafia game in over a year. You made mistakes in the game with a mislynch, that arguably did MORE damage than just claiming a 1x cop too early in this game
I'll also point out that the above statement is also a behavioral problem. I don't think you'd be throwing every possible explanation (including contradictory ones) at the wall just to try and get out from under a mod psych argument if you were town.
Look at someone like Barney, who has flown off the grid from your analysis. Read his play. You let him off with a pass for wanting BK claim but also still suspect me. He is also the last one to make a claim in this game. He's been on both lynch trains that would benefit scum team. Barney was also pushing people like Earth, who we now know as town, into a deeper hole for their reads. He did the same with JoeBob from what I recall. 
Just because I haven't talked about Barney doesn't mean I'm dismissing him. There are two scum in this game. I am convinced that you are scum. I am searching for your partner. The fact that I am aware of just how scummy your play is doesn't mean I'm ignoring everyone else. But, hey, thanks for the pretty basic analysis of his play I guess.
You clearly stated, there is no use in NL'ing this DP because Vader is scum. If you think that is dismissive and not anti-town, geez I don't know what to tell you. Lynching someone off reads that has no reports on them in a MYLO situation is so anti-town. You would rather lynch someone who is has no results based on reads alone, versus the optimal play of No Lynch and giving the town an extra day to decide.
I think you are tunnel visioning because of mod psyche and the role versus overall behavior
If reading a lot of your behaviors and your role claim as scummy is tunnelling (which seems to be a widely shared view at this point), then I guess that's what I'm doing. It's not like I'm honing in on one thing and claiming that alone is reason enough to pursue a lynch. But I guess that is how you'd want to frame it
Reference my comments above
Vader
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@WyIted
Wylted is a tough read. He's sort of jumped on wagons constantly throughout this game, but he hasn't acted out of the ordinary to make me read him as scum, but his involvement in the two lynches makes me suspect of him
Grey parrot lynch wasn't a mistake. He was TP. 

The plan was to lynchbhim and no lynch today to maximize our chances of hitting scum
Hence why I said tough read because Grey was the optimal lynch throughout the first 2 DP's. Granted Greys lynch doesn't hurt scum either though
Vader
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@WyIted
Holy terrible grammar, this dayphase it is imperative that we VTNL as if we mislynch we lose
Agreed. I also agree that the scum team is either you and Austin or Austin and Ragnar so I think an Austin lynch next dp I'd the best option

Why specifically Austin as your top target? Just curious on your analysis of him and want to see if I missed something
Vader
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@WyIted
Barney claimed to target Austin to protect as well and never gave feedback such as "action failed" which is odd. 
Definetly noted. It just makes my scum read on him stronger.

whiteflame
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@WyIted
I don't see the harm in waiting one more dp. The scum team eliminated earth narrowing the scum pool and may fuck up and narrow the scum pool again. 
I haven't decided if it's worth doing. On the one hand, it gives another opportunity for using an item from my inventory. On the other hand, I'm concerned there might be a second NK if we provide the opportunity.

Also, given that I believe we have a solid lynch this DP, I think our better bet is to lynch Vader and VTNL next DP if we're still uncertain.

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@Vader
Why specifically Austin as your top target? Just curious on your analysis of him and want to see if I missed something
I am sure that even if you are scum than your result I trustworthy of whiteflame given it is an odd gambit by scum. I buy BK being town after he failed to attempt to fake a guilty onnsomebody when whiteflame could effectively vouch for his guilty result after gifting him. 

I like your behavior other than the claim and timing of it, so if you are scum I would rather you be the final scum lynched as opposed to the first one. 

Austin was working real hard at figuring out my role in dp1 and why it would benefit me to have GP dead. Of course the benefit in Hindsight is obvious. We already know he is guilty so my any dream that includes him is useless. 

He was guessing all kinds of anti town roles. Why did only roles that could work to get me lynched come up? Why not roles like dreamer? 

Austin didn't want to commit to a lynch. This is a common scum tell.  Usually they thu k helping a lynch that is bad reflects on them. Ironically this also means they remove likely to vote with town. 

Austin cannot make behavioral reads. Everything seems mechanical, perhaps because all behavioral reads would be bullshit and he either has an issue with dishonesty or feels subconscious he will be seen through very easily. 

His behavior seems phony. Like not genuine as if he is playing a part and it crosses me as lacking authenticity. 
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@whiteflame
Also, given that I believe we have a solid lynch this DP, I think our better bet is to lynch Vader and VTNL next DP if we're still uncertain.
If I was as confident about super as you than I would agree but i see some worlds where any combination of Austin barney and Vader could be scum. Austin is ascetic which is aa scummy role. Also barney claimed to protect him which not only is inherently suspicious but also Austin claimed to be ascetic a so barney should have had a failed message and relayed that to us but didn't. I find it more likely that barney is lying about his role than Austin as well not hay it makeshift more likely to be scum
WyIted
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unvote

i think for now we should assume me whiteflame and BK are town. We know that between vader, barney and austin one of thoe 3 are town and I guess based on Barney's results it makes no sense for barney and Austin to be scum together so it mean the scum team now that I process it more is either 

1. Barney Vader
2. Austin Vader

Shit okay I think Vader might be the right choice here but something makes me not want to pull that trigger.
WyIted
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Is it because of some light budding and I just hate getting rid of anybody who may contribute to propping up my ego?

I also need to be confident in my analysis. Hold on
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@Barney
Did you get a message about your action failing when you protected austin?
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Maybe we just lynch 2 days in a role to avoid GP getting a dual win because fuckem.
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@Best.Korea
How do you feel about Vader? 
WyIted
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It takes 4 votes it means we need a consensus with town
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Official Vote Count:

VTNL (1/4) - Vader
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@AustinL0926
Okay only you or Barney are scum not both of you. Both of you is very highly unlikely and so we need you and barney to both go ahead and place your votes on Vader 


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@whiteflame
I am hyper posting because I will be AFK for a very long period of time. I am ready to commit to Vader here. But those I'm the scum pool Austin and barney should ideally vote first.
whiteflame
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Your argument was essentially, there was only 1x role, therefore, this is likely a sus claim. I presented you evidence that there was roles with only 1x. Was this on the mafia side? Yes. But however these roles and 1x's were scrambled up between the two in a variety of games that I have looked from Pie with varying combinations. The point was that this type of analysis is essentially useless for a role madness game because mod psyche can only take you so far (besides the vanilla being non existant). You keep harping on such.
...I honestly don't get this response. You acknowledge that the sole example you provided for a scenario like the one we're discussing in this game (one where Pie devised the game) is the one where all the given X-shot roles were on the mafia side. That's not scrambled. That's very specific. You pointed to several other games where it was scrambled, and note that every single one of those games has at least 2 X-shot roles on town. One could support the other's claim. You have no support for yours. That's not useless analysis. That's straightforward. So yes, I'm going to keep harping on it. That's not useless just because the games are "role madness" - there's a method to this madness. And this is where your remaining responses on this issue just fall apart.

Consistencies in having a 1x role. Consistencies in vanillas. Don't see the issue but sure

There is no consistency to the amount of 1x roles there are given and in a role madness, it's what helps balances town the best. This the type of inconsistency I have tried to tell. 
This isn't about the number of shots. It's about having a roles with a limited number of shots. And yes, there are consistencies. They are consistent in that none of them have only one X-shot role among town. There exists a means of confirming the existence of X-shots (albeit mainly through lynches and NKs) among a set of roles that are not similarly limited. That's the consistency you're somehow failing to acknowledge despite the fact that you provided the evidence. I honestly don't know why you're denying its existence because it's right there.


I'd lean more on behavior and role analysis from themes I know, but good job assumption fallacy
I find it fascinating that you don't see the contradictions in your own analysis. Seems almost like your responses are tailored to ignore the obvious. It's one thing if you don't buy into mod psych or were arguing that there is no consistency between any of Pie's games. Yet you're sitting here arguing that there is consistency between games, and therefore that mod psych supports your view, despite ignoring the glaringly obvious deviation from your claim. If you were town, I believe you'd be owning up to the obvious and recognizing that it's odd. Instead, it's deny, deny, deny.

My information I leaked was not useless.

Yes. I stated that I would've claimed differently now that I look back at it. This is my first time realistically playing a full mafia game in over a year. You made mistakes in the game with a mislynch, that arguably did MORE damage than just claiming a 1x cop too early in this game
I didn't see you make that statement, but I'll assume you did and just point out that you spent a lot of time being dismissive of other choices for claiming or putting that information out there. This isn't about a mistake - it's about how you responded to that mistake. And I think this is where you're misunderstanding a lot of my position on this matter because it is largely behavioral. Even now, you're still justifying the decision to state that I was innocent at the start of a DP where there was no one targeting me while simultaneously owning up to how you were mistaken to do so. I see that, as I see a lot of these responses, as inconsistent and defensive.

You clearly stated, there is no use in NL'ing this DP because Vader is scum. If you think that is dismissive and not anti-town, geez I don't know what to tell you. Lynching someone off reads that has no reports on them in a MYLO situation is so anti-town. You would rather lynch someone who is has no results based on reads alone, versus the optimal play of No Lynch and giving the town an extra day to decide.
I said "I don't think there's much value in a NL this DP." That's not dismissive or anti-town. It's recognizing that I think there is an optimal lynch that has already been justified and don't think a NL will facilitate our efforts much, if at all. Calling it "optimal play" doesn't sit well with me, either, since there are two players you consider to be solidly town that are likely to be the targets of NKs tonight. Assuming that one of your three potential scum will be killed instead seems a bit overly hopeful, don't you think? I'd say I've got more than enough information to lynch at this point, but notably, I'm still discussing other players. It hasn't prevented me from engaging in the DP meaningfully and seeking another scum target.

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@Vader
Meant to tag you for the above.