The Heroes of Olympus Mafia DP3

Author: ILikePie5

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Vader
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@whiteflame
Either way, if you look at any games, your role is a 1x because you are giving away other 1x's. The amount of randomness in Pie's game negates your 1x theory invalid imo 
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@Vader
Either way, if you look at any games, your role is a 1x because you are giving away other 1x's. The amount of randomness in Pie's game negates your 1x theory invalid imo 
Yeah… let’s see who others agree with on this because you are in no way convincing me.
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@whiteflame
Think for a minute. You've been wrong on 2 lynch trains. One with GP and one with JoeBob. You are likely town and I am town. Before you go and push town to try and mislynch on a mylo, let's examine all info. You originally had a Vader and GP scum team, which was wrong.

- Pie has a variety of games with varying amount of 1x, 2x roles, and even has a joat with multiple 1x's, just like your role giving role. You are using a mod psyche in a role madness game where there is no consistency at all.
- We have to look at the behavior analysis of the games and some of the results depending how much we trust it

Look at someone like Barney, who has flown off the grid from your analysis. Read his play. You let him off with a pass for wanting BK claim but also still suspect me. He is also the last one to make a claim in this game. He's been on both lynch trains that would benefit scum team. Barney was also pushing people like Earth, who we now know as town, into a deeper hole for their reads. He did the same with JoeBob from what I recall. 

I think you are tunnel visioning because of mod psyche and the role versus overall behavior

Vader
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Ascetic is a role that Pie uses a lot and would make sense. It's a "protective" role that we haven't seen in this game. Ofc this could be a lie depending what Barney claims but I am inclined to believe it
AustinL0926
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I'm going through Vader's posts one by one, and all I can say is that it feels like he's trying anything and everything to divert attention from himself. I'll make a post-by-post analysis later.
Vader
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Also if it isn't obvious VTNL

If we mislynch we lose. We should not be lynching at this current moment 
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Official Vote Count:

VTNL (1/4) - Vader
whiteflame
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@Vader
Think for a minute. You've been wrong on 2 lynch trains. One with GP and one with JoeBob. You are likely town and I am town. Before you go and push town to try and mislynch on a mylo, let's examine all info. You originally had a Vader and GP scum team, which was wrong.
I've been wrong before, though I'll note that I was on your lynch train last DP, which, notably, has not been proven wrong yet. Still, let's cover this.

- Pie has a variety of games with varying amount of 1x, 2x roles, and even has a joat with multiple 1x's, just like your role giving role.
You have presented absolutely no similar examples... oh wait. You have given one. The one where scum has the only X-shot set of roles. My "role giving role" is pretty distinct from an X-shot role.

You are using a mod psyche in a role madness game where there is no consistency at all.
So, let me get this straight:
You've presented a set of 4 games that Pie has modded
Claimed that there were consistencies to them despite all of them being role madness games (seriously, note the lack of Vanillas)
I pointed out that the consistencies between them don't track with the existence of your role
Now, you're backtracking on that and claiming that there's "no consistency at all" because they are role madness games.
*slow clap* Brilliant maneuver. Honestly, if you were town, you'd scumread the fuck out of this right along with me.

- We have to look at the behavior analysis of the games and some of the results depending how much we trust it
I have looked at behavioral analysis. Last DP. Where you claimed 1X Cop unprompted despite that being a) blatantly anti-town, b) a clear effort to look townie by claiming early, and c) largely useless information in a DP where I was not on anyone's FoS. I'll also point out that the above statement is also a behavioral problem. I don't think you'd be throwing every possible explanation (including contradictory ones) at the wall just to try and get out from under a mod psych argument if you were town.

Look at someone like Barney, who has flown off the grid from your analysis. Read his play. You let him off with a pass for wanting BK claim but also still suspect me. He is also the last one to make a claim in this game. He's been on both lynch trains that would benefit scum team. Barney was also pushing people like Earth, who we now know as town, into a deeper hole for their reads. He did the same with JoeBob from what I recall. 
Just because I haven't talked about Barney doesn't mean I'm dismissing him. There are two scum in this game. I am convinced that you are scum. I am searching for your partner. The fact that I am aware of just how scummy your play is doesn't mean I'm ignoring everyone else. But, hey, thanks for the pretty basic analysis of his play I guess.
I think you are tunnel visioning because of mod psyche and the role versus overall behavior
If reading a lot of your behaviors and your role claim as scummy is tunnelling (which seems to be a widely shared view at this point), then I guess that's what I'm doing. It's not like I'm honing in on one thing and claiming that alone is reason enough to pursue a lynch. But I guess that is how you'd want to frame it.
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@whiteflame
Im Percy Jackson, for always sacrificing myself to save those I love I’m the bodyguard.

I previously said I’m Harry Potter to try to draw the night kill to myself. I suspect the lie worked, but then Earth protected me.

I protected whiteflame the first night, and Austin last night. Obviously no one tried to kill either of them.
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@Barney
Im Percy Jackson, for always sacrificing myself to save those I love I’m the bodyguard.

I previously said I’m Harry Potter to try to draw the night kill to myself. I suspect the lie worked, but then Earth protected me.

I protected whiteflame the first night, and Austin last night. Obviously no one tried to kill either of them.
Figured you were Percy. He's the Harry Potter of this universe, after all, and the lightning bolt especially was a strong indication. I would be surprised if scum didn't figure that out.

That being said, I'm not sure how you come to the conclusion that the lie worked or that Earth protected you. I'm not sure who Earth targeted, but I do suspect that it was someone he solidly townread. I was hoping to get a whole set of reads from him last DP, which might have given us a better indication of who he might have targeted, but I can't say I have a good idea of whether he even died due to his Lightning Rod or because scum targeted him directly.
Vader
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I'm very busy with school right now so I don't have to respond to whiteflame atm. Will do so either tonight when I'm less bogged down or tmrw when I'm less bogged down
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Dashboard
PLAYER         ROLE                 CHAR                                  NP1
Barney           Bodyguard                       Percy Jackson
Austin              Ascetic             Annabeth Chase
Whiteflame   Mad Inventor                     Leo Valdez
Wylted              Dreamer      Reyna Ramirez-Arellano     fail
Vader               1x Cop          Rachel Elizabeth Dare.        wf(innocent)


Graveyard
JoeBob            Emissary         Nico
Lunatic            Loved               Piper McLean
Earth                 Lightning Rod      Jason Grace
Greyparrot     Prophet(TP)      Octavian

I’m out and about, so I can’t fill in all the links, but I wanted the full list. I’ll also include Barney’s two claimed targets when I do get back to it.
AustinL0926
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Yeah, rereading this DP, Vader is really all over the place.

Consider:

-Suddenly sussing whiteflame solely based on the fact he's still alive, as well as the fact that GP was TP (which I don't think whiteflame denied).
-Sussing Barney based on being on both wagons - never mind that Vader was also on the Joebob wagon and GP was a consensus wagon.
-Sussing Wylted based on being on both wagons - see above, this is getting a bit ridiculous.
-Sussing me based on my lack of aggressiveness - I'm not really sure what he means by that, but I'll point out that BK and I are the only living players who didn't vote for Joebob.

It seems like he's doing anything he can in order to direct attention off of himself. The thing I'm most concerned about is the lack of actual behavioral analysis. Surface-level evidence like votecount analysis and "you're still alive" don't seem like a town player genuinely interested in catching out scum - instead, it seems like scumreads for the sake of it.
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I buy Barney's roleclaim. Based on my role and justification, it seemed obvious there was at least one protective role in the game. Also, in the climax of The Mark of Athena, Percy is forced to leave Annabeth behind so that she can complete her quest, despite his strong desire to protect her - so it fits thematically.
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@AustinL0926
I can give a deep paragraph into all my behavior analytics if you would like. Granted it would be an extremely long post and would have to dedicate an hour of my time to do as much if you would like to see how I fully read and feel about the situation of each person. I think you misunderstand the definition of getting people off you because I want people to actively look at what I'm saying versus surface level analysis of role claim. I can appreciate you giving the behavioral reads. One thing I will say at this point in the game where at the moment I know there is at least 2 town with BK and whiteflame, you are sus because you are in my top 3 by POE.  
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@whiteflame
That being said, I'm not sure how you come to the conclusion that the lie worked or that Earth protected you.
He might not have. It’s my best guess. It would explain a few things, but as you’ve said, there’s other possibilities.
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Dashboard
PLAYER         ROLE                 CHAR                                  NP1                             NP2
Barney           Bodyguard      Percy Jackson                  wf                             austin
Whiteflame  Mad Inventor   Leo Valdez                      item->BK
Best.Japan   Millionaire     Hazel Levesque                                                   doc->wyl(innocent)
Wylted            Dreamer         Reyna Ramirez-Arellano     fail                         ???
Vader              1x Cop          Rachel Elizabeth Dare.        wf(innocent)


Graveyard
JoeBob            Emissary         Nico
Lunatic            Loved               Piper McLean
Earth                 Lightning Rod      Jason Grace
Greyparrot     Prophet(TP)      Octavian

I think that's everything. If I am in error anywhere, let me know.
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@AustinL0926
I buy Barney's roleclaim. Based on my role and justification, it seemed obvious there was at least one protective role in the game. Also, in the climax of The Mark of Athena, Percy is forced to leave Annabeth behind so that she can complete her quest, despite his strong desire to protect her - so it fits thematically.
I'd like to dig into this a bit because there is (or was) already a known protective role in the game: Earth, who was the Lightning Rod. To my knowledge, it functions the same as Bodyguard, just with the caveat of also being able to take other night actions beyond the NK in place of the target.

Given how central Percy is to the books (to my knowledge), I just assumed he'd be in this game, and based on your analysis of the role and how well it fits the character, I could see it being here. But I'm throwing out my preconceptions. I wrote off Percy as obviously town, I don't believe I can do that anymore. We now have good reason to believe, based on GP's fake claim, that scum were given at least one fake claim. And he just so happened to get Frank Zhang, one of the seven central demigods of the series. So I don't think we can assume that a) it's demigods vs. others (it might be true, but a fake claim would disrupt that) or b) that certain characters would necessarily be in this game just based on status in this universe. Doing that makes things more difficult to parse, but as I don't have a solid second pick for scum yet, I think this is where we need to start.

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@Barney
He might not have. It’s my best guess. It would explain a few things, but as you’ve said, there’s other possibilities.
Would you mind breaking that down for me? What would Earth's having targeted you during the last DP, and you having been the target of the NK, explain?

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@WyIted
You need to get involved in this DP, particularly as you've apparently been copped innocent and may or may not have a dream to report. 
Vader
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I'm going to respond to every one of my behavioral reads on each player within this post to come to a clear consensus conclusion on where I stand with each other.

First off, in a game where there are 10 people and already a lots of room for chatter and activity to be going on in this game, it would 100% benefit mafia to lay low and not be a center piece of this game. This is because it allows discussion to be had on the vocal players of this game while shining the spot light off them to claim and give analysis. Hence what happened in Dp1 between GP and Whiteflame and then the discourse of JoeBob. It draws less attention to yourself and gives you less pressure to create a claim because you are not actively talking as much and laying low. This logic holds true in most mafia games unless it's some QF games.

With that being my goal, I'm going to give you my reads on who I believe to be the most town and why behaviorally + mechanically they are town 

Whiteflame is inherently the most town in this game for a few reasons. For one, he has been the most active town participant in this game and trying to actively scumhunt. Second, he has a role that is essentially confirmed at this point by another member. This is a role that inherently confirms Whiteflame as town. His post DP2 has been in line from what I've seen as whiteflame town throughout the time. Yes, I suspected whiteflame a bit during DP1 and DP3, but this is without the information of his role and what happened during the NP. If a report of a cop comes up as innocent, no matter what, scum usually target the person who is the most town. Whiteflame is actively scum hunting and playing consistent with the meta he usually does, which is theme analysis and overthinking the importance of roles in this game.

Best.Korea is inherently the second most town player in the game. While he is less town than Whiteflame and I think could have the possibility of being scum, I think it is very low. His logic has been consistent throughout the game as a whole and his views of GreyParrot throughout the game have stayed extremely consistent. He has not taken the opportunity to jump onto wagons and was one of the first to claim DP1. While I am not fond of the claim and still think he's weird, I think I have to put my pride to the side and say he is likely town. His interactions with other members make me think that the only possible scum buddy he could have is Austin at this point. From just a behavior prospective and not a logistic perspective, he reads as town. I also have to take into consideration that the niche role he has and him getting an item make him more town. I asked Pie what would happen if WF gave the role to a mafia member, which he responded ...

Now this is where it gets down to my POE

My top choice at this current moment is Barney

Let me get at this by stating that Barney has been on the last 2 lynch wagons in this one while ultimately remaining low and only attacking bits and pieces of certain information that is given to him. He attacked Earth at first during DP2, then attacked JoeBob during DP1. Each of these flipped town. I do understand the effectiveness of the dashboard, but Barney has given 1 read analysis during his entire game. I've seen this style that he played in Naruto Mafia (yes they conceded), but his behavior pattern seemed to align to what I've seen with him as scum. Lay low, give little insight and try to ride the train based on a few bits and pieces of analytical evidence. This is different from how he plays, even when he is a replacement. He usually dives right back into the field of the play and gives his insights right away with key volume. He was also the last to claim as well with a relatively "safe" bodyguard claim. Bodyguard is a safe scum claim that I know I have used on countless times because it is easily justifiable. Thus, he is my top scum read. 

I think then it comes down to who I pick is Barney's partner between Austin or Wylted

Wylted has been on my lean town throughout some time, but there are some inconsistencies with his game that would look scummy to me. For one, his willingness to jump of JoeBob and Earth and other wagons relatively quickly throughout this game has thrown me a bit off. He seems rather quick to jump on wagons and hammer other people. This shows with him being on 2/2 lynch votes. I also think he is moving in a way that is relatively "harmless." I understand the defense that "he got an innocent read on him" and it's strong, but it is a role madness game. Pie is known for throwing mafia Electrician in this game, or roles that would be manipulate results. It also comes down to his dreamer claim. This role is not a CC in a Pie game and the fact he considered it as such knowing Pie and his mafia seems to me like he is forcing a lynch on someone. Not to mention his Dream failed last night. With no results at all, it just seems a bit fabricated considering as such.

The next person that comes to mind is Austin

It's also hard to see Austin as scum despite him being the last scum by POE. Austin hasn't been bandwagoning any lynch trains and is carefully placing his vote. He is giving some good insight to the game and is being active throughout the game. While I was suspicious of him at first, I think with the claim he gives and his contributions and his consistent reads, I think it is likely that he is more town. I still think he is kind of flying under the radar at certain points, but it's much less to a degree than Ragnar is doing + plus with some of the irl stuff that he had going on. I think he questioned behavior throughout the DP, gives thoughful insight countless times in this game. My gut is just saying he's town
Vader
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For the record Pie didn't respond to the question, when he does, I'll inform town
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@whiteflame
I'd like to dig into this a bit because there is (or was) already a known protective role in the game: Earth, who was the Lightning Rod. To my knowledge, it functions the same as Bodyguard, just with the caveat of also being able to take other night actions beyond the NK in place of the target.
This is an excellent point and makes me think a lot more into Barney. We for sure know that there was some form of protective role in this game and that makes Barney's claim a lot more tough to believe in this scenario. With Ascetic Bodyguard and Lightning Rod, I feel like one of these is lying and I'm more inclined to say it's Barney
Vader
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I'm also not going to entertain the idea "oh I've been switching my reads on people." It's mafia. As info comes to light, of course my reads will change. It's silly to consistently stick with reads throughout a game
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@whiteflame
I'd like to dig into this a bit because there is (or was) already a known protective role in the game: Earth, who was the Lightning Rod. To my knowledge, it functions the same as Bodyguard, just with the caveat of also being able to take other night actions beyond the NK in place of the target.
That's my bad, I misread Earth's role - I thought he redirected actions performed by a player, not actions performed on a player. In that case, I do agree it functions rather similarly to Bodyguard. That being said, I do want to note that overlapping roles are possible - for example, Emissary and Dreamer both are alignment-determining investigatives.


whiteflame
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@AustinL0926
That being said, I do want to note that overlapping roles are possible - for example, Emissary and Dreamer both are alignment-determining investigatives.
Point taken. The lack of protective roles beyond Lightning Rod (which is basically a one-and-done when it comes to an NK) had come off as strange, so I was expecting something with a little more protective power. Doesn’t mean there can’t be a BG (if anything, it would be still odder without a second protective role of any kind), just something I needed to start exploring.
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@whiteflame
I have no dream to report. Reading now. 
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@Vader
Thanks for the analysis. By POE, I'm also sussing Barney, although there's a chance that it's Wylted too if the investigation somehow got tampered with. I feel like Barney is trying to give the appearance of activity while also avoiding angering anyone - in other words, fluffposting. For example, he pushed Earth in DP2, knowing that Earth isn't really the kind of active player who's going to come back for revenge in later DPs. He also went with some easy lynches with Joebob and GP.

That being said, I think you still have a lot of scummy behavior to answer for. In particular, it seems like you're trying to clear yourself with thematic/mechanical analysis and ignoring many of the behavioral reads on you. Barney is lurky, but you've been actively scummy. Assuming we VTNL today, what should make me, and the other townies, more compelled to vote Barney tmrw than you?

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@Vader
Wylted is a tough read. He's sort of jumped on wagons constantly throughout this game, but he hasn't acted out of the ordinary to make me read him as scum, but his involvement in the two lynches makes me suspect of him
Grey parrot lynch wasn't a mistake. He was TP. 

The plan was to lynchbhim and no lynch today to maximize our chances of hitting scum
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@Vader
Holy terrible grammar, this dayphase it is imperative that we VTNL as if we mislynch we lose
Agreed. I also agree that the scum team is either you and Austin or Austin and Ragnar so I think an Austin lynch next dp I'd the best option