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@warren42
I did not realize initially.
When I put the work into an activity counter (which would have been wasted had my vote ended things), I noticed and was about to point it out. Press posted the correction just before I could.
When I put the work into an activity counter (which would have been wasted had my vote ended things), I noticed and was about to point it out. Press posted the correction just before I could.
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DP2 activity levels (as of 11:19am):
8. Greyparrot (46)
5. Lunatic (40)
4. SupaDudz (37)
2. Warren42 (17)
6. WaterPhoenix (20)
7. Drafterman (10)
1. PressF4Respect (9)
3. Ragnar (8)
And yes, I fully admit I may have miscounted, and also that not all posts are equal.
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@Greyparrot
@Vader
@warren42
Grey wrote:
Unvote me doofusbreath
lol. In review, I'm pretty sure that Grey and Supa and not a scum team.
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@warren42
After re-reading his discussion with Supa I'm back to thinking Grey is town.
Since you just had it up, would you mind giving me a link to the area it happened? I don't want to dig through all those pages looking for it.
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@Greyparrot
@warren42
Based on this am I correct in assuming that you think Grey is town?
So my thinking goes like this...
- If Grey is scum, trying to lynch himself so that people lynch Lunatic tomorrow (the game of chicken they're playing), once his death reveals that he's scum no one will lynch Lunatic tomorrow.
- Major loss for mafia, without any likely gain.
- Technically they could both be scum, playing a long game to town confirm Lunatic.
- If Grey is town, trying to lynch himself so that people lynch Lunatic tomorrow, once his death reveals that he's town there's a decent chance of Lunatic being lynched tomorrow.
- If Lunatic is scum, major win for town.
- If Lunatic is town, given some apparently repeated mislynchings lead by him (of which Grey would be the latest), certainly not a bad thing for town.
- As an extra bonus for Grey, he gets to use it against Lunatic in future games.
So yes, I think he is more likely town than not.
If so, who would your preferred lynch be today?
I don't have any in mind. If Grey is town, killing him is a net benefit to Mafia, so any hammering should at least wait until people have had their coffee.
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Unofficial Vote Count
Grey (4/8): Lunatic, Grey, Supa, Drafter
Not Voting (4/8): Press, warren, Ragnar, Water
With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch
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@Greyparrot
You're one vote away from being lynched. You should probably unvote.
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Small reminder from DP1 (I think we’re allowed to copy/paste as it was public):
The Setup2 mafia goons1 town vig8 vanilla town
I’ll write more later. I’m going out on a date right now and typing from my phone.
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@DynamicSquid
Find any great ones on DebateArt.com?
As for the old dead site...
The best comedian: Imabench
If I remember correct, two-two trolls pestered the admin until his best debate got deleted for alleged hate crimes...
My own offerings:
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@Speedrace
I won't insult his mental faculties by agreeing he genuinely thought those words were there.
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@Greyparrot
@David
I suggested this earlier. Glad to see someone else agrees...New rule..if you vote or unvote you have to tag Virt.
Virt,
What's your opinion on being tagged in the posts you'll actually need to deal with?
What's your opinion on being tagged in the posts you'll actually need to deal with?
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@Speedrace
In any world where words and their meaning matter, embellishing extra ones inside quotations which change said meaning is lying. And no, I don't think there is a master plan behind every lie. However, someone lies about me to my face when it's easily verifiable falsehoods, I'll call them out.
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@everyone
Two quick things...
First: Virt is going to be busy tomorrow. So IMO out of respect for him, we should probably end this day phase tonight or early morning at the latest.
Two quick things...
First: Virt is going to be busy tomorrow. So IMO out of respect for him, we should probably end this day phase tonight or early morning at the latest.
Second:
pie (4/6): oro, supa, drafter, Ragnar <-- L2Ragnar (2/6): speed, warren <-- L4Disc (1/6): RagnarPress (1/6) pieNo lynch (1/6): lunatic
We might be able to get two offerings to Siri, as I think killing Disc is just a free extra action, on top of lynching or not lynching anyone else.
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@David
Unless I'm mistaken, Drafter has also voted Pie as our offering to Siri.
posts https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/3311/post_links/139620 and confirmed https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/3311/post_links/139682
Unvote,
VTL Pie
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@Speedrace
Stop with the gas-lighting. You got caught lying. Calling people "manipulative" for for having not said what you want them to have said, is insanity.That I support one of his plans for killing me but not the other, does not deny the existence of other plans.This whole thing also seems uncharacteristic of Ragnar to me - he's never stricken me as particularly conflictive
People lying about the written word, when it's such verifiably BS, is a huge pet peeve of mine, for which I do confront them. To use an extreme made up example, were I to claim that you said in message #39 "I'm Speedrace and I'm mafia, har har har, I'm a..." I would say the cornerstone of you having not said that, would be proof that I'm lying (as opposed to that you're being manipulative and playing semantics). When people pull that type of thing on me (even at a much smaller scale), I call them out.
Examples:
There was a loser back on DDO (who shall not be named), who developed an obsession with me, and kept lying about what I said because I wouldn't trade votes with him. He once broke down complaining about how unfair "objective reality" is for me to have not said those things. Key thing with me quoting him there, I did not quote his tears, I quoted a phrasing highlight which he actually said.
There's a user here who has been harassing our chief moderator (casting votebombs and more), who claims a bunch of debate comments (which don't exist, never existed, etc) which only he can see, prove the evil liberal conspiracy to oppress conservatives and something about Supa being a young white male... On a recently deleted debate, I was livid, and made a complete fool out of him and his non-demonstrated reading ability.
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@Speedrace
Mildly pointless to lynch me, when I've pissed Speed off enough by schooling him on math that he is guaranteed to night kill me (assuming he's the vig, which my earlier process of elimination strongly supports).It wasn't even that deep lol, plus it wasn't about mathematics
Please just take your win. You say you're the vig, I support you on it. ... Yes it's true that our disagreement about numbers did not initiate your desire to kill me, but IMO it adds extra incentive to seal the matter. I could be wrong, but again, I'm just stating my opinions on which option the team should go with.
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@Lunatic
You're now repeatedly insisting the quotation is there, rather than just apologizing for a obviously dishonest misquotation... So again, if you're not full of shit, where did I say "original plan" as you directly quoted me?Oh stop trying to play with semantics, you are purposely being manipulative now. Your intent was to indicate he should kill you as planned, though that was only the back up plan. Gonna avoid the argument again?
Stop with the gas-lighting. You got caught lying. Calling people "manipulative" for for having not said what you want them to have said, is insanity.
That I support one of his plans for killing me but not the other, does not deny the existence of other plans.
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@Vader
either he is scum role or a vig that will be killed.
2nd forum game for me. Back in #275 I was not trying to quote any theory website with n trials of what happens when someone vig claims on an all vanilla team. Rather, I merely giving estimates off the top of my head as part of my analysis of what could happen. You're experienced, so I'll trust your expertise on it.
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@ILikePie5
@PressF4Respect
This directly goes against what Press said in Post 84
Contextually, Press was answering a question from a noob (me) in #84, so I wouldn't get too hung up on the contradiction. Someone can explain game theory, and disagree with using it.
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@ILikePie5
I was Mafia that game, and when not all Mafia members even joined the scum chat, it's a problem.They weren’t inactive tho...
Reviewing just one of them who was not replaced... How many pages in did Cogent_Cognizer make his first post? How many posts total?
He posted nothing for a couple days, only to make 6 posts total, starting at 309, ending at 314 (with basically his suicide).
So if that is not inactive, what is?
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@Lunatic
If Speed is really the vig, let him kill me tonight as he is planning (which avoids him being mislynched tomorrow).it wasn't his "original plan" it was his back up plan. I get you are just defending yourself but that is dishonest to frame it that way.When did I call killing me tonight his "original plan" as you have quoted me?You're a good debater, lying about direct quotations is beneath you."If Speed is really the vig, let him kill me tonight as he is planning "
You're now repeatedly insisting the quotation is there, rather than just apologizing for a obviously dishonest misquotation... So again, if you're not full of shit, where did I say "original plan" as you directly quoted me?
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@ILikePie5
Granted, the last game I played (and only forum game) had a lot of MIA scum.Link please?
MCU Mafia, multiple replacements were needed (which got analyzed a lot), we even had a Mafia member need to leave so basically confess at the end of DP1 to get out early. I was Mafia that game, and when not all Mafia members even joined the scum chat, it's a problem.
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@Lunatic
When did I call killing me tonight his "original plan" as you have quoted me?
You're a good debater, lying about direct quotations is beneath you.
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@Greyparrot
Would you mind clarifying those terms, just in case I'm confused...
I mean VTL (vote to lynch) is clear, I assume the VTV revers to us voting and trusting the vig to obey, but what about the Sin? (might be a typo...)
If Speed is really the vig, let him kill me tonight as he is planning (which avoids him being mislynched tomorrow). If anyone else is, they would have the choice between him, or anyone else... So maybe we should do two-tier voting? By which I mean we have our formal VTL which Virt will enact, but we have a second one (the VTG unless I'm mistaken) for the vig to take under advisement. Of course they'll have up to 24 hours to think things through, so they might do a better analysis in hindsight than we do in the moment.
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Hypothetically if Speed is not the vig but is town, I'd say he has about a 25% chance of surviving the night...
- Mafia might not trust his claim, and assume the real vig would kill him.
- The real vig likely assumes he's scum, but can get him lynched for lying.
If he's really the vig, about a 50% of surviving the night.
If he's scum, again about a 50% of surviving the night.
To not risk a mislynch tomorrow, he's got to kill a town agreed target. Technically on this were he scum, he could tell everyone who the scum kill is, but then the real vig would get him tomorrow night.
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@drafterman
Wait, is Disc in the game?
No, but he posted in the game, so I made a joke about him being an open target... I would say he is the vote not to lynch option.
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@warren42
The irony holds, even if the behaviors aren't a perfect match.
Note that he is not suggesting killing the least active person, but the last person to show up (even when they have greater activity than another, and as Drafter pointed out, that other is unlikely to suddenly have a bunch more time for this when they need to be focused on finals).
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@Lunatic
His kill tonight is pointless, he's most definitely gonna be thr night kill. But I would suggest he kill water based on consistent inactivity.
Irony: Lynch Ragnar for suggesting we kill Water for (previous) inactivity, only to then kill Water for the reasons Ragnar suggested (while ignoring greater inactivity from Pie, as pointed out by Drafter). Of course, Lunatic also suggested we kill Water for the reason Ragnar suggested, so if the logic is consistent we should also kill Lunatic for being the same type of scum as Ragnar.
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@Lunatic
Mildly pointless to lynch me, when I've pissed Speed off enough by schooling him on math that he is guaranteed to night kill me (assuming he's the vig, which my earlier process of elimination strongly supports).
Unless you have a different night kill suggestion for him?
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@oromagi
3 out of how many games? Still, slim odds... It alone is unfortunately not an indicator of him being mafia or town (the two sides of the Gambler's Fallacy).
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Small suggestion for everyone: Tag the game moderator in future VTL posts.
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@n8nrgmi
For troubling passages like this, I do suggest looking up a commentary. BibleHub.com is pretty good for that, if you enter the verse it'll give a bunch of translations and commentary https://biblehub.com/deuteronomy/23-1.htm
I'm of course sure someone here will explain it all. I admit to not understanding the implications of it either.
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@ethang5
Mike was just mentioning this over Discord on Sunday, so the idea is not forgotten. Granted, I have no clue if it will end up being implemented or not.
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@oromagi
I have an math professor uncle who is fond of talking about how humans don't do random, that we can't really be random even when we try.
Not even computers can be truly random, they're just good enough at approximating it to suite our purposes.
I wish greyparrot would just admit that he is scum so we could move on to NP.
Has he done anything to imply that he's scum? ... Either way, I doubt he'd pull a Cog "I am Ironman."
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@Speedrace
You're basically insisting showing up within 5 minutes is somehow not showing up any time within the first 960 minutes.How?
Scroll up to the part where I said "more than 16 hours."
What possible situation in which it took them more than 16 hours (960 minutes) to make their first post, did they also make that first post "within 5 minutes"?
Your logic says that the last person to post is dead weight
Again, in context I gave a 16 hour qualifier. You can check for yourself.
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Slight typo on the above, "Posting last /= dead weight" and "If everyone posts within 5 minutes, the last person to post is obviously not dead weight" should be in the same quotation line.
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@Speedrace
I think my SOP will be to VTL the dead weight in the first day, at least if they take too long to show up (say more than 16 hours?).Posting last /= dead weightIf everyone posts within 5 minutes, the last person to post is obviously not dead weightHow are you bridging the difference between 960 minutes and 5?I'm showing the flaw in your logic. For it to be true, it must apply to every situation.
You're basically insisting showing up within 5 minutes is somehow not showing up any time within the first 960 minutes.
My logic for VTLing someone for not showing up within about 960 (16 hours), isn't flawed if it doesn't also mean we must VTL for not showing up within the first 5. While you can twist what I said to mean everyone is dead weight for not showing up spontaneously right away (first 5 minutes), the context of my message only calls them being dead weight to be trimmed after 16 hours should be clear.
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@Speedrace
I think my SOP will be to VTL the dead weight in the first day, at least if they take too long to show up (say more than 16 hours?).Posting last /= dead weightIf everyone posts within 5 minutes, the last person to post is obviously not dead weight
How are you bridging the difference between 960 minutes and 5?
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@PressF4Respect
What are the benefits of random lynching?
Honestly, I could ask you or any of the experienced players that. I'm very much still learning, but if it is to be done (as I saw people randomly VTLing each other at the start), and killing the dead weight is off limits, than I proposed for future games the most random way to do it in which everyone can check the results.
Personally, I think my SOP will be to VTL the dead weight in the first day, at least if they take too long to show up (say more than 16 hours?). Even chance to get a scum as anyone else, plus if they're a townie, they're a useless townie who truly cannot be read or otherwise contribute their voice.
If we lynch randomly, then the odds of hitting scum will be (at most) 40%.
Today they would be 18%. So I am leaning toward as my SOP if not trimming the fat, then doing a no kill on the first day. But again, I'm still learning the theory.
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@Speedrace
Which their insistence on one over the what every other game is using, could be revealing... Granted, to showcase how this works, I did cycle in more numbers until yours came up (wasn't assured to from that post, but it makes a better example).
Plus, as with the example we're seeing today, there's other reasons to lynch someone becomes the number generator (or lunch them, as this is a village of cannibals in service to Siri).
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@Speedrace
Someone uses a random number generator to do it lol, it doesn't have to be every single user
Personally, I would not trust that player to accurately share the results, nor the randomization of how they're selected in the first place.
Neatly, for future games I do have a solution!
Each player already has their signup order listed, so we'll use that for their corresponding numbers.
For the seed, plug in the date and time of the first post (1203190425), and we get the number 10 every time (Oro). Use just the date (120319), 10 (Oro) again. Use the time of that post (0425), you get 3 every time (Warren). Use the post number (139015), and we get 1 (Speed) every time. Or course, for future games one of the numbers from the page would need to be selected ahead of time.
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@Speedrace
Do you have a better method?Like I said, RandomTRUE random
Please demonstrate how this is done.
Granted, I can think of one way using a random number generator (still not truly random, but close enough); but unless you pick a seed (which diminishes the randomness), each user would see a different result.
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@warren42
I'm asking why you think being the last to show is scummy
It's not actually scummy, it's more about trimming dead weight. Plus even odds with anyone else of them being mafia.
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@Speedrace
For future reference, do you have a better method for determining first day lynch, or do you generally suggest no lynch?Random is fine by me. However, lynching the last person is not random.
Do you have a better method?
Admittedly, the number of no shows last game is a big factor in why I suggested it (someone being last, implies they might not show up at all).
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@Speedrace
Thing is that Ragnar was more than competent in the game I did. Seriously, he did AMAZING.
Thank you!
This seems very scummy to me
Fair enough. For future reference, do you have a better method for determining first day lynch, or do you generally suggest no lynch?
I'm going to go ahead and claim vig
So many possibilities on this claim go through my head. While it could be a fake claim to lure out the real vigilante, with only two mafia that would seem like a needless waste... It could be a lying townie trying to draw heat, but that would be almost strictly harmful to the town... Overall I'll take you at your word; as much as I would have preferred the mafia not knowing the identify of the only power role.
I'll probably NK Ragnar if he isn't lynched
Fair enough. Now that you've outed yourself as vig, you will need to do a kill to confirm it; and in an otherwise all vanilla game, I am as good as any.
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@warren42
do you still want to lynch water since they were last to show?
Not overly, but it's a pretty fair random standard if Siri's demand for blood is to be obeyed. Hence, I've voted for Discipulus instead, the only person here who is confirmed to not be town. Plus we can watch everyone eat, and those who hesitate (or commit some other dining taboo), we know are not one of us.
If so, why is that scummy?
I don't know if doing a day one lynch is scummy or not. Since it takes 6 of us to agree, and the mafia team only has 2, I don't think it can be conclusive.
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I'm confused...The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.
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As seen in the fourteenth amendment: “Nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law”; the government can nether deny someone their rights to include health care decisions, nor force them to surrender their liberties by having abortions or rounding all the men up to be neutered to prevent abortions (less invasive on the men...). Given the history of abused powers even when it violated the constitution, there is no reason to doubt removing these limitations would lead to even greater abuse.
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