Conspiracy Theory Mafia [DP1]

Author: Mharman

Posts

Read-only
Total: 582
RationalMadman
RationalMadman's avatar
Debates: 574
Posts: 19,931
10
11
11
RationalMadman's avatar
RationalMadman
10
11
11
vtl ilikepie5

claim now
RationalMadman
RationalMadman's avatar
Debates: 574
Posts: 19,931
10
11
11
RationalMadman's avatar
RationalMadman
10
11
11
-->
@ILikePie5
A conspiracy theory is not a character.
Mharman
Mharman's avatar
Debates: 23
Posts: 5,006
3
6
10
Mharman's avatar
Mharman
3
6
10
Official Vote Count
Pie (1/4) - RM   

Again, easier for me to follow the vote counts throughout the DP later.
Greyparrot
Greyparrot's avatar
Debates: 4
Posts: 25,698
3
4
10
Greyparrot's avatar
Greyparrot
3
4
10
-->
@RationalMadman
RM we got a lot of quiet people to scout as well...earth, that2, and supa...one of these has got to be scum
Vader
Vader's avatar
Debates: 30
Posts: 14,968
5
8
11
Vader's avatar
Vader
5
8
11
-->
@whiteflame
This one also throws me off a bit. Whiteflame usually talks a bit more in depth to certain degrees about the mechanics of his belief and why it should not be implemented. This seems like a bit of a dodgy response to try and respond to RM to critique this ridiculous idea of his, but doesn't want to feel like over tunneling to where it could set himself up for failure if scum
Again, wasn’t my first response to the tactic. Feels like a pretty basic problem that doesn’t require a lot of depth to understand: getting claimed PRs to use for future CCs when that provides so little information to town is not worth the cost of narrowing the number of targets for mafia. RM’s idea only works if everyone claims a PR, and even then, the benefit of knowing that there are no vanillas does scant little for town, and that assumes no one is lying. Didn’t feel the need to go into more depth and I still don’t. I tend to avoid tunneling regardless of the game, especially this early, regardless of my affiliation, so I don’t know how you feel that sets me apart in this game.

It was not your first response, but it was the primary response. It gave more of a reason to why it's a bad idea and still lacked something. This is a better explanation as to how but seems like was pressured with what I said. I just felt you let RM get away very easy with a bad strategy IMO compared to the other people, which is why I slight scum read you at the of writing post. But this could certainly change 
Vader
Vader's avatar
Debates: 30
Posts: 14,968
5
8
11
Vader's avatar
Vader
5
8
11
-->
@Earth
Do you have the actual name for your conspiracy theory or is it "Bush did 9/11"
Vader
Vader's avatar
Debates: 30
Posts: 14,968
5
8
11
Vader's avatar
Vader
5
8
11
-->
@RationalMadman
I am a townsided vanillaizer (or iser if you prefer that). 1x shot, I turn a town PR to vanilla or mafia PR to Goon.
In a 7 person game there's a vanillaizer? Lol 
Vader
Vader's avatar
Debates: 30
Posts: 14,968
5
8
11
Vader's avatar
Vader
5
8
11
-->
@ILikePie5
Why do you want to lynch RM and why not Grey. Grey buddied with him without any analysis. No analysis is Grey’s MO, but do you find that sus or not?
This is now that I know RM's claim...

Grey has a tendency to be lazy as town for awhile. He simply has not had the same care of mafia as he once did, therefore I do not believe his buddying of RM is an indication of his scum/town, but jut lack of effort that can't be read. If I had to choose, it'd be a town read though

Now RM is a different story. RM has been consistently tunnel vision throughout this process. We know RM has an ego but that's not a part of mafia reads. 
1) Vanillizer. In a 7 person game there is a vanillizer. That is essentially a SOP role in a 7 person game. That has no use in a game like this besides negative town effect. There is 2/7 you hit scum with 1/7 chance they are a scum PR and there is at least 5/7 chance they are town (assuming we have 2 vanillas), 3/7 role. Unless there is an issue with the game's balance, this role is inherently scummy. Then you may ask, but it's so oblique, it has to be town? I would argue this. RM puts a lot of effort into his games he plays and I believe he would 100% take the time to go and hunting for obscure roles to make his case look better so it could "town confirm him"

2) Gameplay. When I have played with RM. He has almost never been so gunho about every PR claiming in this game at all. Why now of all times is he deciding to do it claiming how it worked last time? Not to mention, he has been very defensive as a whole to his style and adamantly talking back to others. 
Greyparrot
Greyparrot's avatar
Debates: 4
Posts: 25,698
3
4
10
Greyparrot's avatar
Greyparrot
3
4
10
-->
@RationalMadman
I would vanillaize earth or supa if I had to pick
Vader
Vader's avatar
Debates: 30
Posts: 14,968
5
8
11
Vader's avatar
Vader
5
8
11
Also whiteflame's post now are more null now
Greyparrot
Greyparrot's avatar
Debates: 4
Posts: 25,698
3
4
10
Greyparrot's avatar
Greyparrot
3
4
10
-->
@RationalMadman
 He has almost never been so gunho about every PR claiming in this game at all. Why now of all times is he deciding to do it claiming how it worked last time?
Huge scumtell. Any town person would know immediately you want to know who has PR's so you can decide how to use your role without blindly guessing.
Vader
Vader's avatar
Debates: 30
Posts: 14,968
5
8
11
Vader's avatar
Vader
5
8
11
-->
@ILikePie5
It does not
Vader
Vader's avatar
Debates: 30
Posts: 14,968
5
8
11
Vader's avatar
Vader
5
8
11
My current reads are 

Slight town on Pie

Lean scum on RM

Slight scum on GP

Slight scum on Earth
Greyparrot
Greyparrot's avatar
Debates: 4
Posts: 25,698
3
4
10
Greyparrot's avatar
Greyparrot
3
4
10
VTL SUPA

for useless analysis
Mharman
Mharman's avatar
Debates: 23
Posts: 5,006
3
6
10
Mharman's avatar
Mharman
3
6
10
Official Vote Count
Pie (1/4) - RM
Supa (1/4) - Grey
That2User
That2User's avatar
Debates: 6
Posts: 641
2
3
3
That2User's avatar
That2User
2
3
3
-->
@Earth
@RationalMadman
@Mharman
Supa Earth is viable team

GP Esrth viable team

Pie and abyone except That2, viable team

That2 only scum with whiteflame or earth

GP is probably only scum with either supa or earth
Earth is viable mafia team with 4,  (Supa, GP, Pie, That2), mathematically Earth is the most likely mafia, why is Earth the most likely? Based on interactions?

VTL Earth

Earth
Earth's avatar
Debates: 4
Posts: 3,038
3
4
8
Earth's avatar
Earth
3
4
8
-->
@RationalMadman
Are you daft? Bush did 9/11 isn't an Islamic conspiracy. 
Earth
Earth's avatar
Debates: 4
Posts: 3,038
3
4
8
Earth's avatar
Earth
3
4
8
-->
@That2User
RM just wants to lynch me because he doesn't like my theme. Also I'm a viable team with the entire roster list? lol
Earth
Earth's avatar
Debates: 4
Posts: 3,038
3
4
8
Earth's avatar
Earth
3
4
8
Mostly through PoE, WF and That2 is a good lynch for today.

Town
Earth
Pie

Null
Supa/RM/Grey
That2/WF
whiteflame
whiteflame's avatar
Debates: 27
Posts: 4,740
4
6
10
whiteflame's avatar
whiteflame
4
6
10
-->
@ILikePie5
Do not character claim. Answer this question:

Does your character have anything to do with Islam?
My conspiracy has nothing to do with Islam.

Mharman
Mharman's avatar
Debates: 23
Posts: 5,006
3
6
10
Mharman's avatar
Mharman
3
6
10
Official Vote Count
Pie (1/4) - RM
Supa (1/4) - Grey
Earth (1/4) - That2

whiteflame
whiteflame's avatar
Debates: 27
Posts: 4,740
4
6
10
whiteflame's avatar
whiteflame
4
6
10
This is all looking pretty scattershot. We have three VTLs on three different people and everyone appears to be using entirely different reasoning to get there.

I'm not sure why RM decided to unvote Pie and then re-vote him over an unproven theory regarding Islamic-related conspiracies. If this was really cause for caution because RM thought he had something here, he wouldn't have turned around and reinstated his vote less than 30 minutes later with no new information.

GP just seems to have a problem with the weak analysis coming from Supa, and while I agree that there may be something there, this isn't new for Supa. He did have some decent analysis of the vanillizer role, but I hesitate to move on anything that involves that much mod psych. The hedging I'm seeing in multiple posts from Supa where he gives himself easy outs from sussing me (most recently ending one of his posts with "But this could certainly change"... as though that's something we didn't already know), claims that my initial response to him where I didn't actually expand on any of my reasoning "was pressured" by what he said without a VTL, and then responds to my reads where I did expand on my thoughts as being "more null now" all stand out to me as odd behaviors for town.

As for the vote on Earth... That2's reasoning is entirely derived from a post that RM made about plausible scum pairs that never got much in the way of explanation. It's unclear from That2's post why she buys into that list, and especially as she questions the basis for having Earth on so many possible scum teams, it's weird that she decided to put a vote down over it. 


Supa still tops my list atm, so that's why my VTL is going for now.

VTL Supa
Greyparrot
Greyparrot's avatar
Debates: 4
Posts: 25,698
3
4
10
Greyparrot's avatar
Greyparrot
3
4
10
-->
@whiteflame
I'm leaning toward a supa/that2 team atm
Mharman
Mharman's avatar
Debates: 23
Posts: 5,006
3
6
10
Mharman's avatar
Mharman
3
6
10
Official Vote Count
Supa (2/4) - Grey, Whiteflame
Pie (1/4) - RM
Earth (1/4) - That2
ILikePie5
ILikePie5's avatar
Debates: 3
Posts: 14,995
3
7
10
ILikePie5's avatar
ILikePie5
3
7
10
-->
@RationalMadman
Scum benefit from merciful day phases, people have this idea of revealing and pressure backwards. Town cannot put anything together in a themed closed setup without pressure and reveals.
Mafia literally have the advantage to begin. If both have the same information about roles, mafia still have an advantage. It’s not hard to understand.

vtl ilikepie5

claim now
Get votes on me and I’d be happy to claim. Why don’t you be productive instead of tunneling. Stop being anti-town
Greyparrot
Greyparrot's avatar
Debates: 4
Posts: 25,698
3
4
10
Greyparrot's avatar
Greyparrot
3
4
10
-->
@ILikePie5
what are your thoughts on a that2/supa team?
That2User
That2User's avatar
Debates: 6
Posts: 641
2
3
3
That2User's avatar
That2User
2
3
3
-->
@RationalMadman
@whiteflame
@Mharman
As for the vote on Earth... That2's reasoning is entirely derived from a post that RM made about plausible scum pairs that never got much in the way of explanation. It's unclear from That2's post why she buys into that list, and especially as she questions the basis for having Earth on so many possible scum teams, it's weird that she decided to put a vote down over it. 
I admit it's shaky, it's mostly a feeling that Earth is mafia teamed with someone, tho I do want an explanation why RM paired Earth with so many, wanted to see how Earth would react to being voted
Unvote
Mharman
Mharman's avatar
Debates: 23
Posts: 5,006
3
6
10
Mharman's avatar
Mharman
3
6
10
Official Vote Count
Supa (2/4) - Grey, Whiteflame
Pie (1/4) - RM

ILikePie5
ILikePie5's avatar
Debates: 3
Posts: 14,995
3
7
10
ILikePie5's avatar
ILikePie5
3
7
10
-->
@Vader
This is now that I know RM's claim...

Grey has a tendency to be lazy as town for awhile. He simply has not had the same care of mafia as he once did, therefore I do not believe his buddying of RM is an indication of his scum/town, but jut lack of effort that can't be read. If I had to choose, it'd be a town read though
I agree. Today GP should not be an option. If we mislynch today, he should definitely be looked at tomorrow since it’ll be MYLO I think.

Now RM is a different story. RM has been consistently tunnel vision throughout this process. We know RM has an ego but that's not a part of mafia reads. 
1) Vanillizer. In a 7 person game there is a vanillizer. That is essentially a SOP role in a 7 person game.
I already pointed this out.

That has no use in a game like this besides negative town effect. There is 2/7 you hit scum with 1/7 chance they are a scum PR and there is at least 5/7 chance they are town (assuming we have 2 vanillas), 3/7 role.
It’s negative Town utility, but still utility. I believe he’s telling the truth about his role. Idk whether it’s scum or town, but his behavior screams Townie who’s being anti-town.

Unless there is an issue with the game's balance, this role is inherently scummy. Then you may ask, but it's so oblique, it has to be town? I would argue this. RM puts a lot of effort into his games he plays and I believe he would 100% take the time to go and hunting for obscure roles to make his case look better so it could "town confirm him"
He would take the effort, I agree, but I still don’t think it’s affiliation indicative 

2) Gameplay. When I have played with RM. He has almost never been so gunho about every PR claiming in this game at all. Why now of all times is he deciding to do it claiming how it worked last time?
This is where I have to disagree. He’s always been under the belief that town should all claim and work together to optimize their performance. I call him out on it everything. Whether he’s doing this as scum, idk. Maybe dialing it down to just PRs may be a scum change he made

Not to mention, he has been very defensive as a whole to his style and adamantly talking back to others. 
That’s the RM we know. It’s my way or the highway for him.
ILikePie5
ILikePie5's avatar
Debates: 3
Posts: 14,995
3
7
10
ILikePie5's avatar
ILikePie5
3
7
10
-->
@Greyparrot
I would vanillaize earth or supa if I had to pick
He’s gonna choose me. It’s pretty obvious.