NFL Mafia [DP3]

Author: Mharman

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whiteflame
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After skimming through the previous DPs, I've changed up my reads a bit.

We have two lynches to work from, and I think it's likely that at least one scum was on both lynches, possibly more. So I'll start with the overlap: SirAnon, MC and Badger.

SirAnon - He's probably the least sus of the trio, but I do have reservations. It's not so much that the justification rubs me the wrong way, but rather the role itself sticks out. That being said, SirAnon was the one to point out that scum might not have role claims based on what Mharman has divulged so far, and while that might have just been a way to get us to townread him, it also revealed that the kind of role he has claimed is likely to come from scum who would want to avoid being CC'd. Seems like he'd be undercutting himself by pointing that out. Still townread him behaviorally.

MC - Behaviorally, I think MC's scum, but based on the fact that we've now tested his lynchproof two DPs in a row, I just don't see a reason to pursue him. We can't lynch him even if we want to, but despite the balance being weird and so much of his role being weird, I have to buy that MC is lynchproof, that it wasn't a one-time thing, and that that makes it exceedingly unlikely that he's scum. That2 pointed out that "MC can get lynched in MYLO/LYLO," though that's really only a reason to keep him on the table for the future, and that actually makes it more difficult to sus him. Having a lynchproof scum who clarifies that they can be lynched in later DPs just doesn't make sense.

Badger - Yeah, this one's weird. I still largely townread him behaviorally, but I seriously do not understand why he was on the lynch if he was so confident that Earth was town. That could just be because he was fed up and just wanted a lynch at all, or maybe he was trying to prove himself right, but it's strange behavior regardless. It's making me second-guess my townread.

So, from this group, Badger is the most sus to me at the moment.


As for others to consider, I'll start with anyone who was on either of the two lynches separately. Starting with DP1:

That2 - I'm getting a pretty hard townread on That2. The early DP2 Vanilla claim is just an incredibly weird move for scum to make coming off of two town Vanillas being confirmed. Behaviorally, I can't say I've seen anything too concerning. She has been more active than I've seen her before, but I'm not sussing that.

Danielle - She's null for me. Danielle is bringing a lot of good analysis to this, but my experience with her is that this isn't unusual whether she is scum or town. The main behavioral element that has me slightly tilting town with her is the question about the no lynch. I would expect her to be more aggressive as scum and push for a lynch.


Onto DP2.

Speed - I've always had a hard time reading Speed and I'm feeling that again here. Still null at the moment. We were of similar minds on the Earth lynch, so I can't fault him there, so I'm having a hard time determining whether it's just us being on the same page or buddying.

GP - There's so much I don't like about GP's behavior and claim that I've already explained. None of that has changed. I'm still scumreading him. He remains my strongest scum read.


That leaves WyIted. He hasn't been on either lynch. He keeps jumping on and off of lynching me, though he has gotten less interested in the "why" of it, instead piggybacking on what Danielle said about scum likely being between me, SirAnon, Speed and MC and just placing a vote on me... I guess because he already sussed me earlier? I wasn't clear. He's kept saying that GP should be a last resort without much in the way of justification. Earlier in the DP, he was fine voting for him until he felt that his role somehow balances with GP's (we've confirmed MC's role, so if WyIted's soft claim is true, it's not balanced), then decided to push the last resort part after we'd confirmed MC's role. His interactions with GP, as far as I can find, have just involved GP literally asking him "Are you talking to your scum buddy?" and WyIted responding with "Is this a yes or no question?" and responding to a "I still don't trust Wylted" directed to badger with "Bro, I'm white." Fluff interactions. He was also needlessly defensive early in DP2, claiming that he was an easy mislynch despite a lack of votes on him or even anyone sussing him.


So, at least right now, GP and Wylted are my strongest scum reads. As for a third, I have it mainly between Badger and Speed at the moment, leaning towards the former.
MisterChris
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I'm sorry y'all. Yesterday was spent with friends/family and today I've been dealing with ATT tech support until now. Going to work in 10 mins. I'll be back to keep things moving around 12 am. Will post plenty to make up for it.
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@whiteflame
I agree with all of that. Some things I'll add is that badger seemed eager to want to out results from PRs on DP1 and DP2, but now says he has two reports he does not want to out. Why should other people out their reports but not him? I also think the town could get lazy in reading his "I'm too drunk to concentrate" and "I just want this game to be over with so I'll vote for  people I allegedly 100% read as town" to slip by as acceptable despite being so unhelpful and anti town. It makes it impossible to read him. What people read as his perceptiveness (ie. his being correct about Earth as town) could just be him being an informed scum player. 

Re: Wylted, on DP2 he said in post #22 "He should have been lynched the oro lynch was obviously shit and we need to look at players from that lynch pool." Then immediately after in post #25 he said "Really? Because his scum read was wrong? Come on now. He at least didn't lead a mislynch like happened to oro."

So on one hand he says we should look at players on the oromagi lynch wagon because they misread, and on the other hand he says it's unfair to sus Barney (now Wylted) just because Barney's read was wrong on DP1. If wrong reads are not a reason to sus people, then why did he say we should FOS people on the oromagi wagon for their misread? That's contradictory logic. I've found those using contradictory logic are often scum. 

I think we should lynch Wylted for now. He never officially claimed popular and never offered to test it so we might as well do it. He could be lying. I agree we have no choice but to town read MisterChris for now given his two lynches not going through. If and only if Wylted flips town would I assume that MisterChris is some sort of OP scum, and even then we could just try and lynch him a third time. Unvote and VTL Wylted. 


Mharman
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Official Vote Count 
MisterChris (4/5) - SirAnon, Greyparrot, Speedrace, That2
Whiteflame (1/5) - Badger
Wylted (1/5) - Danielle


badger
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I'll give you my reports then. Wylted (Barney) no visited N1. Whiteflame is innocent N2. 
badger
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I'll give my thoughts on those two for you too. The Wylted report probably comes close to confirming him town but for the number of vanilla townies in the game. Still I expect if he is mafia, he's going to explode or some shit. Honestly, I wish I'd used my cop report N1 but I got to really scumreading Barney after the DP and I figured tracker report is potentially more info that cop report. Visit/visitor. Afterwards when he no visited I saw an idea there that he might be town for not voting on oro. Helped along to it obviously. 

The WF report means nothing. Lawyers, godfathers, whatever. Town seemingly has 3 roles to stop kills. Mafia roles are definitely muddying our investigations. Also lawyer is a role easy to conceive of for this sort of theme. 
SirAnonymous
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@That2User
MC isn't entirely lynchproof, MC can get lynched in MYLO/LYLO
When did Mharman or Chris say that?
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@badger
Since you've role claimed, you may as well character claim (unless you have already and I missed it).
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So far, everyone has denied having a role that could explain the lack of an NK (or claimed a different role) except for Whiteflame, Wylted, and Danielle. Wylted hinted that his role involved lynches, so I doubt that it could stop an NK. Whiteflame talked about the different possible explanations as though he didn't know. Danielle said that she thought she knew what role could have done that.

After I posted my theories, I realized there were at least two town roles that could do it. I decided it to keep my guesses to myself to avoid giving scum possible fake claims. However, I doubt either of those roles are out there, as I would expect they would have been claimed. Still possible, though. It's also still possible that there is another town role I haven't thought of that could stop an NK without giving the player a reason to claim.

The most likely alternative to a town role that stopped the NK is that the mafia waived. But why would they waive? Not to try to fake town confirmation, obviously. Why then? Waiving an NK  without attempting to fake town confirmation is very rare on DART. This seems to suggest that mafia has at least one player who has experience playing mafia on a different website where waiving was more common, which would likely be badger, Danielle, or Wylted. Of course, that's a rather tame inference, since POE alone would suggest that at least one of them is scum.
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@Danielle
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I'm intrigued by your case against Wylted. Contradictory logic is probably a little less suspicious from him than it would be from another player, but it's not nothing.

Wylted, I would be very interested in seeing your claim.
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@badger
The Wylted report probably comes close to confirming him town but for the number of vanilla townies in the game.
It's certainly a point in his favor. I am still interested in seeing his claim, though.
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@badger
I'll give my thoughts on those two for you too. The Wylted report probably comes close to confirming him town but for the number of vanilla townies in the game. Still I expect if he is mafia, he's going to explode or some shit. Honestly, I wish I'd used my cop report N1 but I got to really scumreading Barney after the DP and I figured tracker report is potentially more info that cop report. Visit/visitor. Afterwards when he no visited I saw an idea there that he might be town for not voting on oro. Helped along to it obviously. 

The WF report means nothing. Lawyers, godfathers, whatever. Town seemingly has 3 roles to stop kills. Mafia roles are definitely muddying our investigations. Also lawyer is a role easy to conceive of for this sort of theme. 
That changes things quite a bit. So you're a JOAT then? I won't ask what your other roles are, but based on these results, I can understand why you didn't claim before this DP. I also understand your interpretations. Wouldn't be terribly surprised if there was a mafia JOAT as well , which could include a 1X Lawyer and would explain the use of a Strongman NP1 but not NP2.

As for the result on Wylted, I'd say that his not having visited anyone doesn't tell us much. This is likely a 3 scum game and whoever was scum clearly did use the Strongman, so all your result tells us is that he wasn't the one who performed the NK and he didn't use a PR on someone. I'm still scumreading him.

As for you, assuming that you aren't CC'd, I see no reason not to buy this claim. So far, no one else has claimed an investigative role. That shifts my suspicions over to Speed as the third scum.
badger
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I'm Green Bay Packers, honorary cop/tracker x1 each, had to be used first two NP's. Justification was my team won the first two super bowls ever + superbowl cup is named after our coach, hence honorary. 
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@badger
Your justification makes sense. In this game, that's almost suspicious!
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@Danielle
Yeah, there's a good deal I didn't like about badger's behavior, though with this claim on the table, it's pretty unlikely that he's scum.

Agreed on Wylted. I think it's time he gave us a full claim at minimum, we'll see what he says. VTL Wylted.
badger
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I don't think I'm the JOAT. My role seems a little stunted for what I'm used to in Mhar's games.

As to the NK waive, there wasn't one, or mafia is terrible. It gave town back the ML. No good mafia ever waived here. I expect Wylted is BP or something tbh.
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@badger
I'm Green Bay Packers, honorary cop/tracker x1 each, had to be used first two NP's. Justification was my team won the first two super bowls ever + superbowl cup is named after our coach, hence honorary. 
Got it, though the "had to be used [during the] first two NP's" is an odd addendum. Don't think I've seen that before.
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@PREZ-HILTON
prod

"Delay of Game, 5 yard penalty"
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@badger
Oh, you were saying that mafia was terrible if they did waive, not if they didn't. Well, scratch my thoughts about mafia waiving.
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@badger
If wylted is BP, why didn't he lead with that instead of speculating about the doctor?
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@SirAnonymous
Yeah, my bad. On other sites NK meant to no kill. Was more a strat than to refer to some phase or whatever. NK's were common, was lots of game mechanics to game. 
badger
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@SirAnonymous
I'm completely guessing what Wylted is. BP fits with the no action N1 role. I just figure there's no more blues. BP would explain the no kill. 
SirAnonymous
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@badger
Yeah, my bad. On other sites NK meant to no kill. Was more a strat than to refer to some phase or whatever. NK's were common, was lots of game mechanics to game. 
Gotcha.
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I am not BP. Lol
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I have not read the DP yet. Been very busy but I will claim. Didn't want to claim so I could make a sacrifice play on MYLO. My role is not unique, but Mharman named it something unique.

I am the outlaw. When lynched I can choose somebody to shoot.

My justification is that the Dallas cowboys owner was the soon of a bootlegger and used outlaw money to buy the franchise. 
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@whiteflame
Earlier in the DP, he was fine voting for him until he felt that his role somehow balances with GP's
Fine not out of any suspicion of guilt as I explained, but to progress the game
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@PREZ-HILTON
So town has two roles that can potentially kill other townies?
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My logic is not contradictory. Sussing Barney for a misread is terrible. That's a fact.

It's also a fact that scum are incentivized to lynch members of town.


Having a member of town on your scum reads is going to happen to all of us. Being on a mislynch will also happen with some town. I find that it's actually unusual to actually get a bad lynch through without the help of the scum team though
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@SirAnonymous
I haven't been online much. What other role?
Mharman
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Announcement:

Oromagi and Earth have been added as potential replacements. They can replace in for any player of any faction.

"On the Bench" is now as follows:

1. Supa
2. Oromagi
3. Earth