NFL Mafia [DP2]

Author: Mharman

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SirAnonymous
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Edit to my last post: I misread badger as saying, "but about what now?" rather than "but what about now?".
badger
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I'm drunk and not getting my point across. Maybe I'm just wrong lol. I'm sure that my insisting that Earth is doc means that if he isn't I'm mafia. But I guess you lot can doubt my ability to read it. 
SirAnonymous
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@badger
 I'm sure that my insisting that Earth is doc means that if he isn't I'm mafia. But I guess you lot can doubt my ability to read it. 
What I doubt is how your ability to read it has anything to do with whether or not the two of you are the same affiliation.
badger
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@SirAnonymous
I'm saying that if I'm town, he's town. it's not a two-way street. I mean we're bogged down in nonsense here, and I am wrong. But I'm as certain that Earth is doc as if I'd read his PM from Mhar. I've made the mistake of thinking you lot should take my read as gospel or mafia. I am not the mafia messiah lol.. I really am drunk right now. 
SirAnonymous
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@badger
I'm saying that if I'm town, he's town. 
Yeah, I get that's what you're saying. I just don't agree with it.
 I really am drunk right now. 
We can resume tomorrow. Or move on to something that might be more important.
badger
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Goodnight, friend. 
Greyparrot
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@SirAnonymous
Or move on to something that might be more important.

What are the odds speed is scum in your eyes.
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@badger
I had a dream last night some black girl wouldn't take a pencil from me because I was white. What is the meaning of this dream?
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@Greyparrot
I had a dream last night some black girl wouldn't take a pencil from me because I was white. What is the meaning of this dream?

Small penis. Resentment of women. Racism and inferiority complex. Obviously.

SirAnonymous
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@Greyparrot
What are the odds speed is scum in your eyes.
Hmm. There are 10 players. I know I'm town. I'm 99% sure Chris is town. That leaves 8. I lightly townread Wylted, badger, and That2. They are less likely to be scum. I'll toss 1/3 of each of them out at random (bad image), leaving 5 and 6/3 players, or 7. I think that of those 5 players, Speed probably has an average chance of being scum of those 5 (except for Earth), and there are 3 scum. That's a 3/7 chance to be scum, or 43%.  I think Earth has a somewhat higher chance of being scum, so that would decrease Speed's odds. To avoid more math, I'll cut his odds to 40%.

Possibly a stupid way to derive that, but the final result feels about right.
SirAnonymous
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You could throw my lazy math off by introducing a 3rd party, but I doubt there's one of those out there.
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@SirAnonymous
eh not the worst odds.

VTL SPEED
SirAnonymous
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After doing the math, I'd be more comfortable lynching one of my null reads, which are GP, Speed, Whiteflame, and Danielle (although I think Danielle has a higher of spontaneously combusting than of being lynched this DP).
That2User
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@SirAnonymous
GP, Speed, Whiteflame, and Danielle (
Why they null? Who you most willing to lynch?
Mharman
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Official Vote Count
MisterChris (3/6) - Wylted, SirAnon, Danielle
Greyparrot (1/6) - Whiteflame
Wylted (1/6) - Greyparrot
That2 (1/6) - MisterChris
Whiteflame (1/6) - Wylted
Earth (1/6) - Speedrace
Speedrace (1/6) - Earth
VTNL (1/6) - That2



Mharman
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27 hours remaining
That2User
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If we mislynch today do we get to LYLO/MYLO?
That2User
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@Mharman
If we mislynch today do we get to LYLO/MYLO?
Earth
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@Mharman
I didn't vote Speed

Mharman
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@That2User
I can't answer that one
Mharman
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@Earth
on it

Mharman
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Official Vote Count
MisterChris (3/6) - Wylted, SirAnon, Danielle
Greyparrot (1/6) - Whiteflame
That2 (1/6) - MisterChris
Whiteflame (1/6) - Wylted
Earth (1/6) - Speedrace
Speedrace (1/6) - Greyparrot
VTNL (1/6) - That2
Mharman
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fixed
SirAnonymous
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@That2User
Why they null? Who you most willing to lynch?
They are null to me because none of them seem to be deviating from their usual scripts. I don't know if I can pick one that I would be most willing to lynch. A Danielle lynch is obviously not happening, so not her. I would be okay with GP, Speed, or Whiteflame.
Speedrace
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@SirAnonymous
They are null to me because none of them seem to be deviating from their usual scripts. I don't know if I can pick one that I would be most willing to lynch. A Danielle lynch is obviously not happening, so not her. I would be okay with GP, Speed, or Whiteflame.
I'm ok with GP, I'd need a lot more convincing for WF

Why not Earth?
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@That2User
If we mislynch today do we get to LYLO/MYLO?
Assuming there are 3 scum, we get to MYLO
That2User
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I would be okay with GP, Speed, or Whiteflame.
Let's get wf
Unvote 
VTL whiteflame
Gotta have faith in my instincts 
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@Speedrace
Assuming there are 3 scum, we get to MYLO
If 3 MYLO w/ mislynch 
If 2 ?
Mharman
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Official Vote Count
MisterChris (3/6) - Wylted, SirAnon, Danielle
Whiteflame (1/6) - That2
Greyparrot (1/6) - Whiteflame
That2 (1/6) - MisterChris
Earth (1/6) - Speedrace
Speedrace (1/6) - Greyparrot


SirAnonymous
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@Speedrace
Two reasons. Firstly, I don't think there would be enough votes. Secondly, (and this is a bad reason, but very real) I'm scared to go down that route. If he were to flip town, I think I might be the next target, using up town's last lynch and costing us the game.