Russia and Ukraine

Author: Dr.Franklin

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ILikePie5
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@SirAnonymous
That situation is not analogous to the current one. In the Cold War, there was a constant risk that the other side might attack. There is no risk that NATO will attack Russia.
If we believe everything, then the same was true during the Cold War. Even during the Cold War everyone knew about MAD. MAD is still true right now. There was no threat that NATO would attack USSR at that time, but it sure as hell didn’t stop us from having weapons along the USSR border creating a perceived threat. When the USSR did the same, we were mad, as we should have been. The whole point is about perceived threats currently and future threats

Let me be unequivocal in saying that what Putin’s doing is wrong from a humanity perspective. But from a national defense standpoint, he’s doing the right thing for his country.

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@ILikePie5
If we believe everything, then the same was true during the Cold War. Even during the Cold War everyone knew about MAD. MAD is still true right now. There was no threat that NATO would attack USSR at that time, but it sure as hell didn’t stop us from having weapons along the USSR border creating a perceived threat. When the USSR did the same, we were mad, as we should have been. The whole point is about perceived threats currently and future threats

Let me be unequivocal in saying that what Putin’s doing is wrong from a humanity perspective. But from a national defense standpoint, he’s doing the right thing for his country.
There are words here making vague references to "perceived threats" without even attempting to explain why Putin should perceive NATO as a threat. And even if we assume that NATO is a threat, invading Ukraine does absolutely nothing to counteract that threat. If anything, it makes it worse.

Let me pose the question this way. Suppose Putin didn't annex parts of other countries and didn't invade or threaten to invade any other country. Would NATO attack Russia? If the answer is no, then NATO is not a genuine military threat to Russia.
ILikePie5
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@SirAnonymous
There are words here making vague references to "perceived threats" without even attempting to explain why Putin should perceive NATO as a threat. And even if we assume that NATO is a threat, invading Ukraine does absolutely nothing to counteract that threat. If anything, it makes it worse.
Then you misunderstand the purpose behind the invasion. I believe that Putin doesn’t want to annex all of Ukraine. Neither does he want to annex Donetsk or Luhansk. He wants to install a pro-Russian government and then back off so there’s a buffer between Russia and the bulk of NATO. The Russian border with the Baltic States is tiny and easily defensible. If Ukraine joined NATO though then it’s a larger threat. No matter how you perceive it. Stockpiling troops and weapons in NATO countries, especially if Ukraine joined NATO is a threat.

Let me pose the question this way. Suppose Putin didn't annex parts of other countries and didn't invade or threaten to invade any other country. Would NATO attack Russia? If the answer is no, then NATO is not a genuine military threat to Russia.
The future is unpredictable. Let me ask you the question. If you were Putin and you saw Ukraine joining NATO, which allows placement of weapons along an even larger piece of the Russian border, wouldn’t you feel threatened? If you say no, then we just have a fundamental difference in the definition of “threat.” Intent in the present means nothing if future intent is possible
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@ILikePie5
Then you misunderstand the purpose behind the invasion. I believe that Putin doesn’t want to annex all of Ukraine. Neither does he want to annex Donetsk or Luhansk. He wants to install a pro-Russian government and then back off so there’s a buffer between Russia and the bulk of NATO. The Russian border with the Baltic States is tiny and easily defensible.
A buffer is only needed if there is a threat of military invasion. Unless you think NATO is going to invade Russia, this isn't a valid reason to invade Ukraine.
If Ukraine joined NATO though then it’s a larger threat. No matter how you perceive it. Stockpiling troops and weapons in NATO countries, especially if Ukraine joined NATO is a threat.
Only if you think NATO is going to attack Russia, which is absurd.
The future is unpredictable. Let me ask you the question. If you were Putin and you saw Ukraine joining NATO, which allows placement of weapons along an even larger piece of the Russian border, wouldn’t you feel threatened? If you say no, then we just have a fundamental difference in the definition of “threat.” Intent in the present means nothing if future intent is possible
No, I wouldn't feel threatened. If I were Putin, all I would need to do is not annex, invade, or threaten to invade, and NATO would not be a threat. Also, by this logic, Canada should be really scared of the US and should try to find a buffer. After all, the US has a long border with Canada and is really well armed. Sure, there are no signs that America will ever invade, but hey, intent in the present means nothing if future intent is possible. Anyone know where Canada can get itself some more tanks?
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@ILikePie5
I am pretty sure Putin is using "NATO aggression" as a pretext to getting Black Sea access.
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@SirAnonymous
A buffer is only needed if there is a threat of military invasion. Unless you think NATO is going to invade Russia, this isn't a valid reason to invade Ukraine.
That’s the point. I don’t know what it’s going to be like 10 years from now.

No, I wouldn't feel threatened. If I were Putin, all I would need to do is not annex, invade, or threaten to invade, and NATO would not be a threat. Also, by this logic, Canada should be really scared of the US and should try to find a buffer. After all, the US has a long border with Canada and is really well armed. Sure, there are no signs that America will ever invade, but hey, intent in the present means nothing if future intent is possible. Anyone know where Canada can get itself some more tanks?
You and I both know this is a false dichotomy lol. Either way, it’s an agree to disagree situation. 
ILikePie5
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@Greyparrot
I am pretty sure Putin is using "NATO aggression" as a pretext to getting Black Sea access.
He got that with Crimea, which is why he doesn’t care as much about annexing all of Ukraine
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@ILikePie5
That’s the point. I don’t know what it’s going to be like 10 years from now.
So it's within Russia's interests to invade Ukraine based on the possibility that 10 years from now, despite all signs to the contrary, NATO might invade? That's so thin it makes paper look thick.
You and I both know this is a false dichotomy lol.
I don't see how it is. If we're judging countries and alliances as threats based on what they might do in the future, regardless of the facts of the present, then why wouldn't the US be a threat to Canada? It's a well-armed neighboring country. Of course, based on the present facts, the US doesn't seem likely to invade, but that might change in the future. How is this different than the logic you're using to justify NATO being a threat to Russia?
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@ILikePie5
You are probably right. He wants the entire pie not just a slice.
ILikePie5
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@SirAnonymous
So it's within Russia's interests to invade Ukraine based on the possibility that 10 years from now, despite all signs to the contrary, NATO might invade? That's so thin it makes paper look thick.
Just as absurd as the idea that the Ukraine would never join NATO. You’re still running under the interpretation that NATO would never invade a country. It’s not Estonia that Russia is worried about, it’s the US. NATO is a proxy for a U.S. v Russia conflict.

I don't see how it is. If we're judging countries and alliances as threats based on what they might do in the future, regardless of the facts of the present, then why wouldn't the US be a threat to Canada? It's a well-armed neighboring country. Of course, based on the present facts, the US doesn't seem likely to invade, but that might change in the future. How is this different than the logic you're using to justify NATO being a threat to Russia?
Canada would get obliterated in a war. Plus they don’t have nukes. The difference here is that NATO is backed by the US. If the leader was Estonia, then who would care. 

If Putin decided today to create a defensive military alliance with Cuba and station some nukes there, we’d all be in outroar.

Do you support a Russian-Cuban “defensive military alliance” with nukes stationed in Cuba? 

You have to be crazy to believe the invasion isn’t defensive. There is no offensive reason for Putin to invade Ukraine
ILikePie5
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@Greyparrot
The problem here is that there’s misinformation that Putin wants to annex all of Ukraine. He has absolutely no reason to do that. Zero. He just wants a pro-Russian government in Ukraine so the buffer remains between NATO and Russia
ILikePie5
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@Greyparrot
I still find the fact that Russian Oil hasn’t been sanctioned hilarious. Polls must be looking horrible if gas prices continue to increase
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@ILikePie5
I still find the fact that Russian Oil hasn’t been sanctioned hilarious. Polls must be looking horrible if gas prices continue to increase

I am pretty sure Putin predicted that would happen under Biden.
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How come you guys don't elect someone cool like Putin instead of a decrepit old dude or a creepy old crybaby? 
badger
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The US was cooler when Obama was president. 
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@badger
Yeah. Obama knew how to let Russia have Crimea in a classy and cool way. Biden doesn't know what a smooth transition looks like.
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@ILikePie5
Just as absurd as the idea that the Ukraine would never join NATO.
NATO invading Russia is far more absurd than Ukraine joining NATO, which was never an absurd idea, at least after the fall of the USSR.
 You’re still running under the interpretation that NATO would never invade a country. It’s not Estonia that Russia is worried about, it’s the US. NATO is a proxy for a U.S. v Russia conflict.
I'm operating under that assumption for good reason. NATO, and the US, have absolutely nothing to gain by invading Russia. Furthermore, neither NATO nor the US have much stomach for any war, let alone a war with Russia. The US let Afghanistan fall into the hands of the Taliban because it didn't have the political will to support a war with double-digit annual casualties. The majority of Americans don't want war with Russia. As for the rest of NATO, they don't even care enough to uphold their military spending promises, not to mention their pre-invasion desire for Russian oil. I'm operating under the assumption that NATO won't invade because the idea that NATO would invade Russia is utterly, completely, and in every way absurd.
Canada would get obliterated in a war. Plus they don’t have nukes
That undermines your argument. Russia has nukes, NATO has nukes, America has nukes, but Canada doesn't have nukes. Thus, Canada should have more reason to fear the US than Russia has to fear NATO.
. The difference here is that NATO is backed by the US. If the leader was Estonia, then who would care. 
No, that is the chief similarity. In NATO vs. Russia, the US in the main player. In Canada vs. the US, the US is the main player. If Russia should consider NATO a threat because of the US, then why shouldn't Canada consider the US a threat?
If Putin decided today to create a defensive military alliance with Cuba and station some nukes there, we’d all be in outroar.

Do you support a Russian-Cuban “defensive military alliance” with nukes stationed in Cuba? 
If it was a defensive military alliance in the same way that NATO is a defensive military alliance, then that would be fine. America isn't going to invade its neighbors or annex their lands, so it would have nothing to fear from a genuinely defensive military alliance.
You have to be crazy to believe the invasion isn’t defensive. There is no offensive reason for Putin to invade Ukraine
Then I'm crazy, because I see no defensive reasons for Putin to invade Ukraine, but I do see offensive reasons.*

*You may point out that such reasons would almost certainly be irrational. You would be correct. The conqueror's desire for power is quite irrational. However, we know from history that it is a powerful motivator.
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@SirAnonymous
You have to admit NATO has been very passive-aggressive in their quest to secure a hegemon since 1990 that might include assimilating an unwilling Russia as well.
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@Greyparrot
To be quite honest, I'm not sure what you mean. What is NATO hegemony even supposed to look like? Everyone getting together and saying, "We promise to spend X amount of money on defense and defend each other from invasion"? Where's the hegemony in that? How would they force an unwilling Russia to assimilate into it? What would "assimilation" mean in that context?
ILikePie5
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@SirAnonymous
To be quite honest, I'm not sure what you mean. What is NATO hegemony even supposed to look like? Everyone getting together and saying, "We promise to spend X amount of money on defense and defend each other from invasion"? Where's the hegemony in that? How would they force an unwilling Russia to assimilate into it? What would "assimilation" mean in that context?
But that’s not even the case tbh. People join NATO cause the US is in it. I could care less if Estonia is invaded by Russia. I sure as hell wouldn’t support going to war over that. It’s quite frankly, dumb. If Russia ever attacks the U.S., they’ll be nuked. We don’t need Estonia’s help.

The whole foundation of NATO was based on communism and small countries being afraid of the Russians, who are ripping us off tbh
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@Greyparrot
You have to admit NATO has been very passive-aggressive in their quest to secure a hegemon since 1990 that might include assimilating an unwilling Russia as well.
Our only allies should honestly be France, Germany, and the UK in Europe. Go back to the Washington days of focusing on our side of the globe
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@Greyparrot
Or just allow every nation into NATO. Cause why the hell not. Own the Russians and Chinese lol
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If Russia 'cannot defeat Ukraine,
Does that not imply weakness,
And is not weakness in oneself something to be feared?
Would nationalists 'not want greater strength?
Strength which might be acquired by seizure of Ukraine,
Assets and prevention of other nations influence?

It's prophetic, don't you see,
That even in defeat, Putin would be proved right,
Proven that Russia is in great danger of weakness,
Though perhaps people 'won't see it that way.

I'm not saying that the USA and other countries shouldn't back Ukraine,
I simply disagree with people, that there's only 'one way people might view the situation.
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@ILikePie5
And the USA apparently. Biden bought 500 million barrels of oil from Russia recently.
ILikePie5
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@Greyparrot
Follow the oil as always
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@ILikePie5
It's sort of an amazing coincidence that there was all of this black stuff hidden down there waiting to power a specific phase of material evolution.

Intelligent design some might say.

Not that I'm suggesting that it was really necessary to nail a bloke to a post for my sins.

Though I am currently a firm advocate of evolutionary destiny.

And I'm still judicially out on whether the human species will be along for the whole journey.
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@Lemming
"I simply disagree with people, that there's only 'one way people might view the situation." That's my position exactly. I don't believe this is about freedom and democracy, this is about organized crime and money laundering and Putin wants to control it in his own back yard. 

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@SirAnonymous
I don't see how it is. If we're judging countries and alliances as threats based on what they might do in the future, regardless of the facts of the present, then why wouldn't the US be a threat to Canada? It's a well-armed neighboring country. Of course, based on the present facts, the US doesn't seem likely to invade, but that might change in the future. How is this different than the logic you're using to justify NATO being a threat to Russia?
NATO literally has tried to landlock Russia based on what it might do in the future.
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@Incel-chud
No, it is based on what they are doing right now in the present.
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@SirAnonymous
Also, by this logic, Canada should be really scared of the US and should try to find a buffer.
Let's not give Canada any ideas there, bud. I live pretty close to the border and would rather not wake up at 5 pm to artillery shells just because some armchair general figured out the concept of buffer states in their war strategy video game and decided to give the idea a try in the real world like a fucking child.

I'm American. That kind of shit is for citizens of former 2nd world countries to deal with, not me.