Ozark Mafia Day Phase 3

You are welcome to do that, but I think Supa’s behavioral tells outweigh it significantly. It’s how I’ve caught scum in the past

So far I think SUpa is the player we lynch and take that chance on. But I want be more confident in such a choice before I make it.

He's all over the place , lost track of his role , is jumping around , and Luna did not confirm a mistake 

Lol supa and pie are both town. this games almost over as soon as town mislynches.

List of games I will be using and where you can find them in the archives:

75) Dragonball Z Mafia

92) Wal-Mart Mafia

103) Kill Bill Mafia

111) Redwall Mafia

130) Christmas Mafia

196) Themeless Mafia

209) Bartimaeus Mafia

224) Game of Thrones Mafia

235) Clash of Clans Mafia

259) Overwatch Mafia

277) Stranger Things Mafia

296) Dark Crystal Mafia

314) Stormlight Archives

335) Inverse Reality Mafia

343) Stephen King Universe Mafia

Then who do you think scum is and why?

If Pie is town he needs to seriously quit mafia and rethink how he goes about the game

I'm done arguing with him because it's pointless to argue with scum

It doesn’t look like DP has ended yet. So, to clarify, I will pick one of the 3 players from Mharman’s list using a dice randomly?

one of the 3 remaining after one of the 4 is lynched, yes.

This is to counter a lawyer/framer.

Understood

just kill scum ez gg

dude chill. Anger does not help your case, it only harms it

results almost done

Keep it up scum

A JOAT has appeared in 60% of games I analyzed, and 46% of all JOATs were mafia. However, we already have one JOAT confirmed in this game, and only 33% of games with a JOAT had multiple of them.

So not likely, which means mafia likely has a limited amount of roles at their disposal. From, what we've seen happen in this game, these are the possible mafia roles:

-Lawyer or Godfather

-Magistrate or Redirector

-Roleblocker

First things first, let's focus on the Lawyer and Godfather. The more likely either of these roles are in the game, the less likely CompuerNerd's "innocent" cop result on Supa is true. Then I'll talk about the possibility of a scum magistrate vs. the idea of a town magistrate and a scum redirector, as it is critical to any decision on Whiteflame. As for roleblocker, I think it's a lock for this game that mafia has one and used it on ComputerNerd NP1, so I won't dig in to that one.

At least one of these two appeared in 87% of games I analyzed. Across the 13 games with one or both of these, there were 9 Godfathers and 8 Lawyers/Framers. So yes, I basically guarantee mafia has some counter to ComputerNerd's cop. Therefore, an innocent cop doesn't mean as much, but a guilty one might if either it is Godfather and no Lawyer/Framer, or if the Lawyer/Framer is a Lawyer and not a Framer.

For those who don't know, a Lawyer makes a target appear innocent to investigations and a Framer makes a target appear guilty to investigations; Lunatic has a habit of giving players both roles in his games.

Honestly, a mafia Redirector or Bus Driver is more likely than a Magistrate/Politician/Votestealer, but not very likely in itself. A mafia redirector or bus driver appeared in 33% of games I analyzed. As for Magistrate/Politician/Votestealer, we know it is in this game despite appearing in 13% of games I analyzed. Whiteflame has claimed responsibility for his role use on Badger last DP, and we know the effect wasn't just Badger because it is on Sui this DP. But this does not guarantee a Redirector or Bus Driver. And you know what is less common than a mafia Magistrate/Politician/Votestealer? A town Magistrate/Politician/Votestealer, which appeared in only 7% of games I analyzed. The only thing that makes this statistic questionable is the small sample size of games containing a Magistrate/Politician/Votestealer.

Either way, we may need to re-examine Whiteflame.

Released my findings. Thoughts?

SIDE NOTE: an innocent cop still means something worth looking into. However, I don't know if the case of Supa can be solved this DP. Sure, there's a solid chance mafia is manipulating Cop results, but it's not a guarantee. I want more info out of ComputerNerd next DP.

thank you

Also, Supa can be panicking as town not wanting to be mislynched just as much as scum not wanting to be found out.

We have tomorrow and the day after until 6. No need to rush.

Anyways, I'm going to bed.

I’d argue that results on Supa don’t matter. As you said it’s more likely than not there’s a Lawyer/GF in the game. Logically it makes sense that Supa gets lawyered. If it’s Sui, Supa, Mikal, it makes sense to Lawyer Supa since he’s most likely to be investigated. It’s WIFOM anyways.

I implore you to look at the objective reasons Supa is scum. There’s no WIFOM, no manipulation. Pure behavior based on history.

Impressed with the time you spent on the analysis. Your approach is smart. Randomness will prevent Mafia from protecting one of their own.

Correction: Magistrate and votestealer are NOT the same. Disregard “votestealer” in my research.

I swear every time I have a neat idea I keep nearly ruining it by getting some small thing mixed up.

You know, the first half of this DP went kinda fast. I want to reread it from an updated point of view.

After re-reading the DP. I can see reasons why either Whiteflame or Supa could be scum, maybe even both.