Ozark Mafia Day Phase 3

Really, the only thing that's making me solidly question Supa is that he's putting his behavior down to Luna being late in sending him a PM to tell him he was visited by Computer. It's possible, but it's entirely unverifiable and outright frustrating if true.

I haven't lied about any mechanic. I'm telling you that basing your scum read on a MafiaUniverse role description when that doesn't mean shit in a Lunatic game is stupid. Stop basing your reads on this and think about the bigger picture

Then you proceed to have no counters to any of the arguments I made and then said "my behavior is scummy." In what way has my behavior been scummy. Your only reason then is to talk about the Luna situation, but then again, you are being a class a dumbass

What would be the reasoning behind CC'ing a visit from an un CC'd cop. As scum, why would I risk doing that, especially if I got an innocent on me? What would honestly be the point. He got an innocent. If I was scum I wouldn't have said shit about the innocent if I didn't get a PM. I'd just let it go by without a thought because it gives me town merit. The fact I called it out should make me more town, but logic seems to not even exist in your brain besides "WIFOM"

You say, my behavior is scummy and why I'm defensive, look at the game

4v3v1 OR 5v2v1

Town loses if mislynch if you are suggesting the front is what the distribution is overall

I want you to ask why I am a better lynch target than WF

Also link me to your claim

Alright, long post to get my reads and reasoning out there since I might have limited time over the next several hours. I've had some time to read through all this and I'm really starting to think that our scum team is GP, Pie and Sui.

Sui's obvious, so I won't spend time on him.

Pie is a tough call because, at this point, we're clearly between him and Supa. I don't read anything into Pie's being defensive since he kinda has to be at this point, regardless of whether he's scum or town. That being said, all of the things he's saying about how his behavior doesn't fit what he'd do if given the opportunity just isn't convincing to me. 

He says he tends to play conservatively, and to some degree that's true, though even nixing bussing as a regular strategy for him (and as something he'd hesitate to do), I know he's ready and willing to do it. It's strange because he simultaneously says that he's a conservative player, but that if he was bussing, he would have bussed hard. Those two statements don't jive for me. 

He says quite a bit about how he's got the game solved numerically to the point that he wouldn't have redirected my Magistrate to a fellow scum if he was scum, but I'm not so sure. Getting a NL on this NP wouldn't end the game (hence his argument about lynching Mikal, if he actually is the Hunter, also wouldn't end the game - we could stand to lose two town so long as one scum goes with them, just as we could stand to lose one town during the NP with a NL) and would give town some POE in the process.

Not saying that it wouldn't help scum as well, but Pie acts as though it's obvious that the choice for scum would have been to redirect my Magistrate to another town member.

I don't see it that way, and the additional benefit of sowing confusion in town by forcing them to analyze other members beyond the obvious scum has its own benefits. So, no Pie, I'm not implying that you didn't see a numerical benefit if you were scum. I'm saying that you would have seen a different benefit to this course of action, one that wasn't necessarily outweighed by the numerical one.

Beyond all that, I'd say that Pie is doing a lot of WIFOM analysis, as Supa already mentioned. Why would I have done this instead of this as scum? Wouldn't this have been the better choice? He decries what he sees as WIFOM analysis from me and then responds in kind.

And it doesn't really work for me because what he's asking me to do is to look at his behavior, see that he didn't take the most opportune route if he was scum, and finger Supa instead. The trouble with that is that I think Supa took an even less opportune route.

I've already explained that, so I won't revisit it here. I don't care that Supa came up Inno, that's not factoring into my decision at all, but I don't understand how the CC and rapid reneg makes sense from Supa's perspective if he's scum, especially since, as Pie points out, both came "after Computer had already said he visited Supa."

I still haven't gotten a reason why Supa would take this specific set of actions, but if this is him as scum, this is incredibly sloppy.

Pie, you can't ask me to simultaneously view a non-optimal choice you potentially made as obvious reason not to suspect you, and then look at this and see it as obvious scum play. Maybe Supa is just playing this sloppily, but at least for the moment, I buy that less than I buy you having made the decisions required to get to this point as scum.

Really, the only thing that's making me solidly question Supa is that he's putting his behavior down to Luna being late in sending him a PM to tell him he was visited by Computer. It's possible, but it's entirely unverifiable and outright frustrating if true.

I can see you doing all of this, even if you're going to WIFOM on each point.

Whether or not you'd be willing to bus at that particular point is impossible for me to know, but if your general response is that this doesn't fit your meta, I'll buy it. Doesn't mean I'm writing you off.

I just straight up don't agree that effectively forcing a NL by redirecting me onto a townie and then having scum refuse to vote for one of their own is the best choice for scum to have made.

You can push me on that all you want, but I see value in the strat that scum went with. You can claim all you want that this wouldn't have come up as an option if you were scum, but many of us are straight up disregarding the Cop result and you yourself said that we should be doing that at this stage regardless. Not saying this was the best choice scum could have made, but I'm not putting it past you or anyone else to have made it. I'm also not convinced that the Cop result wasn't monkeyed with in some way, so the argument that you wouldn't leave a Cop to investigate doesn't work for me in general.

In general, you keep talking about what the optimal strategy for you would have been, and I'm telling you now, that shit isn't convincing me. Whoever is scum, they're not playing optimally. That doesn't mean that you're not scum. I can't and shouldn't assume that, if you were scum, you will always behave in the most optimal way.

Beyond that, you keep saying that you, personally, would never do something as scum. Even if I bought that, there is a scum team here and whoever is on that scum team is going to occasionally come to different decisions. I don't buy the argument that I should solely focus on what you, personally, are likely to do as scum in order to determine whether scum, as a whole would have done this with you on the team. Suffice it to say, I wouldn't be surprised if you were on the scum team and pushed back against the decision to redirect my Magistrate, though I'm also not convinced that you don't have a different role that took the decision away from you. The Trancer role will automatically redirect any visits that would go to you to a different target of your choice. The Deflector takes all actions that would target one player and directs them to another. You could be a Nexus, automatically redirecting anything that targets you to another player. I'm not arguing that any of these are inherently more likely, though I'll point out that any of them would explain why you personally wouldn't have taken this specific action and yet you could still be scum.

"It is objectively true that Supa had zero interactions with Supa if you reread the DPs" ...huh? Did you mean with Sui?

I'm not arguing that Supa isn't sloppy. I'm arguing that you're asking me to buy that he's being far more sloppy in this particular DP than makes sense to me. You're asking me to view what he did here as scummy, but despite his errors in the past, I've never seen him do anything like this as scum. If you have examples, I'd consider them.

For now, because we have the time to do this, I'll unvote. Pie's asking me to look at this holistically, so I'll go back and analyze things in more detail. It's either Pie or it's Supa, it can't be both. Pie has a point when it comes to behavioral reads on Supa and his interactions with Sui, though I don't buy the OMGUS as a problem (like I said, at this point, one of the two of you is scum). I don't buy that his sloppiness points to him being scum, but that may be because the examples of previous sloppiness are too dissimilar.

Nah town might still figure it out. I have faith in the impossible.

So how about we just lynch Mikal and have him shoot Sui?