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@Lunatic
I unvoted in a previous post, but I'll reiterate that here.
Ozark Mafia Day Phase 3
Posts
Total:
327
Why Whiteflame could be scum:
Earlier I said the low odds of a town magistrate were questionable due to a small sample size. But I forgot that this town magistrate claim hinges on the existence of a redirector or bus driver, the investigations of which do have a much larger sample size. So the odds of a town magistrate in this game are still low with a method that can’t be discredited by pointing out the small sample size.
To reiterate, there is a low chance of magistrates being town in games they appear in and there is a low chance of there being the bus driver or redirector that the idea of this magistrate being town hinges on.
Now let’s move on to theme analysis. Before we lynched Airmax last DP, I concluded the split was Navarros vs. Else. This was part of my reasoning for the lynch. But clearly that was wrong. I now think it could be Marty Byrde and allies vs. Everyone else. The character of Charles Wilkes is a clear cut ally of Marty, manipulating the vote that allows Marty to continue a casino project.
Why Whiteflame could be town:
Claiming magistrate and using it on an obviously scum teammate afterwards are both very risky gambits that a lot of scum teams would never pull. I cannot understate this. Whiteflame is an experienced player.
And let’s talk about theme here, too. Ruth Langmore was town, and she was Marty’s business partner. This could mean Marty Byrde could be a town role, so in this case there would be no evidence of Charles Wilkes being a scum character.
Why Supa could be scum:
Supa has claimed gramps, a role which MafiaUniverse has said is exclusively scum. He
may have also had a scum teammate telling him to fake a mod mistake, since a modding mistake has not been confirmed. He is jumping all over the place and is now OMGUSing Pie out perhaps desperation to not be caught. And Buddy Dieker in the show is a terminally ill old man who doesn’t do too much in the show, so the possibility of a fake claim is there.
Why Supa could be town:
If Lunatic did include the Gramps role, he could flip it to town if he thinks it can be used as a town role. The town utility to the Gramps role is undeniable if Lunatic went that route.
Another thing is that a modding mistake is possible, given that I had to point out to Lunatic a mistake of his earlier. It had no bearing on how the DP ended, but it was a mistake nonetheless. As for confirmation on a modding mistake in Supa’s PMs, we will likely never get it from Lunatic. Confirming there was a mistake would tell town too much about Supa, and that in itself could be seen as a mod helping town too much.
Finally let’s talk about that OMGUS of Pie. This can just as likely be towny since he could be OMGUSing out of a sense that Pie is only going after him because he is scum. An incorrect notion for sure, but many town players have done this in the past.
Now let’s talk theme one more time. If Buddy Dieker isn’t a fake claim, he is an objectively townie character who only gets used by Marty.
Where do I stand on this?
First, I don’t see any reason to believe both are scum anymore after thinking about and typing up this post. Supa has no reason to bus a teammate in MYLO. All of the mafia could push for a single mislynch and end the game right here right now, and imagine it is what they want to do. Plus, Supa has been scumreading Whiteflame since last DP, when he first claimed magistrate.
Despite the number of paragraphs, the argument for Supa being scum is just as strong as the case for Whiteflame being scum. However, Supa does have a much stronger case for being town than Whiteflame.
First, if one is mafia, claiming town magistrate isn’t a huge risk until you use it incorrectly for town benefit to the point where you have to rely on the claim of a redirector or bus driver, which didn’t happen until the DP after he claimed it. So I can see why Whiteflame would maybe try it if mafia hadn’t thought of protecting Sui from getting lynched yet. As early in DP2 as it was, they likely hadn’t.
Second, if there was any time to take a risk for mafia, it could be now. One mislynch is all it takes. If they go all in and get it, they don’t have to worry about any repercussions of the risk next DP since they will have already won and there won’t be one. I know I said Whiteflame may not take the risk due to being experienced, but experience may also yield the knowledge of when to take such a risk, and that would be now if there was ever a time for the scum team.
Third, Ruth Langmore, although Marty was a father figure, she wasn’t completely loyal to him always. She tired to kill him at point in the show. So Marty doesn’t have to be on the same team as her, and is this on the table for scum, putting Charles Wilkins back on the table for scum.
With that being said, I’ve made my selection for now. It is a hard choice between Whiteflame and Supa, and I pick Whiteflame.
VTL Whiteflame
I'm not voting whiteflame. I think the two obvious choices are pie and supa but leaning supa over pie. Behavior is to erratic. Could be getting straight rolled by a mharm and cn scum team and them being given a fake claim. But that's unlikely.
What makes me think it's possible is no one else is claiming to be roleblocked. So maybe he's saying it as town cred. Also there was no roleblock last night but a redirect (if wf is town).
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@Mikal
I can't defend a mod error unless I screenshot my PM, which would get me modkilled so I am not going to contribute anything and let Pie get his mafia win
I won't be engaging with Pie at all until he is lynched
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@Mharman
Supa is for sure scum in my books. The last scum is among Mikal/WF, where I’d lean on WF just because of his hesitation on lynching Supa.
You’re the strongest townread out of anyone though. I’ll defer to your read.
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@Vader
If you think WF is scum, why aren’t you voting him?
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@Lunatic
Day Phase 3 will end in 72 hours, or on Friday, February 5th, at 6PM EST.
Can u confirm whether it’s Saturday the 5th or Friday the 4th?
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@ILikePie5
Saturday
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@Mikal
I'm not voting whiteflame.
What causes you to townread him so heavily?
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@Mharman
Behavior wise and his reaction to him thinking he was redirected. It's genuine to me and does not come off as defensive scum but actually perplexed.
We have like one day and I won't be around much in a bit. I kind of want to get this day over with before I can't respond.
The 2 names in literally everyone's scum pile is pie and supa so we pick there. Between those I think either supa is/has
Scum and has slipped multiple times and has no idea how to defend himself.
Town and has no read the dp at all and it's making him seem scummy
Leaning scum because Luna will not confirm a mod mistake so it makes me think he slipped with a story he came up with
I will admit to making mistakes as a mod this game, I have to be careful how I say things obviously so as not to confirm people's claims. I'll leave it up to your interpretation whether I am talking about vote counts, or night actions but yeah I have a new job that has a lot more responsibility so mod actions have been hastier. I apologize for any mistakes made and will try to avoid them in the future.
That just made this dayphase a lot harder for me choice wise. Going to think heavily about supa or pie now. Gramps is typically a Mafia role , and I view that as mod confirmation of supas role. So the question is whether or not that confirms affiliation.
I don't think supa and pie are scum together this is a Mafia Town split in between them so I think when one dies it very likely confirms the other. There could be a separate faction in the game as well. Instead of 3v1v8. Maybe it's 3v3v6 or 3v2v6. Which could make some of these interactions seem more split than what they actually are. Could be 2v2v8 even. Could explain the roleblock one night and the redirect the other. Maybe they trade kills and actions? Also I could just be entirely wrong and cn and mharm are a second faction together and we are getting played.
This is way more difficult now choice wise.
I don't think supa and pie are scum together this is a Mafia Town split in between them so I think when one dies it very likely confirms the other. There could be a separate faction in the game as well. Instead of 3v1v8. Maybe it's 3v3v6 or 3v2v6. Which could make some of these interactions seem more split than what they actually are. Could be 2v2v8 even. Could explain the roleblock one night and the redirect the other. Maybe they trade kills and actions? Also I could just be entirely wrong and cn and mharm are a second faction together and we are getting played.
This is way more difficult now choice wise.
Wow the amount of scum pressure it took to get Lunatic to say something after Supa was about to get lynched. Really says something. If anything this just implicates Supa even more
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@Mikal
That just made this dayphase a lot harder for me choice wise. Going to think heavily about supa or pie now. Gramps is typically a Mafia role , and I view that as mod confirmation of supas role. So the question is whether or not that confirms affiliation.
Objectively his behavior says he’s scum. This doesn’t change at all.
I don't think supa and pie are scum together this is a Mafia Town split in between them so I think when one dies it very likely confirms the other. There could be a separate faction in the game as well. Instead of 3v1v8. Maybe it's 3v3v6 or 3v2v6. Which could make some of these interactions seem more split than what they actually are. Could be 2v2v8 even. Could explain the roleblock one night and the redirect the other. Maybe they trade kills and actions? Also I could just be entirely wrong and cn and mharm are a second faction together and we are getting played.This is way more difficult now choice wise.
No objectively it makes sense it’s Supa. I’ll spell it out for you:
Let’s assume for the sake of argument that Supa was telling the truth about his not seeing ComputerNerd because Lunatic made a mistake. Well that just creates a CC for a Mharman/CN team. And since it’s MYLO, it wouldn’t really do much except add more confusion and create a different target for a lynch.
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@Greyparrot
Unvote
Not going to say my partners but I'm stupid and just did math. Will you mafia side with me.
I left you alive to not deny you the win but to joint win with you because you my bae. If you don't vote this dp and just remove your vote. Town will not have enough votes to end the dp and then just vote with me next dp and we win
If you vote me I'll just Hunter supa since mod just confirmed him. But I think you are going to side with me when you realize I didn't nk you to deny you the win. You are my bb
Not going to say my partners but I'm stupid and just did math. Will you mafia side with me.
I left you alive to not deny you the win but to joint win with you because you my bae. If you don't vote this dp and just remove your vote. Town will not have enough votes to end the dp and then just vote with me next dp and we win
If you vote me I'll just Hunter supa since mod just confirmed him. But I think you are going to side with me when you realize I didn't nk you to deny you the win. You are my bb
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@Mikal
Like I said town isn't going to figure out who skum is...not likely
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@Mikal
We can also myslynch a town too I can hammer that.
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@Greyparrot
Love you
I tried to breadcrumb to you early but all you have to do is not vote and I'll do the rest. I redirected wfs role for a reason. Mod confirmation made me pull it out but I know you always have my back
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@Greyparrot
Easier to waive
Want to make sure there are no other factions that will fuck us. I will handle that tonight. I swear on my life I won't kill you. Just want to make sure I have the game solved and there isn't one more tp lurking.
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@Greyparrot
Trusting you as well. I think you would tell me of you solo win
If you do wp
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@Mikal
I'm not a sole survivor lol.
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@Greyparrot
I trust ya BB.
Group thought you would play us and I defended you
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@Mikal
lol, I was trying to give town a chance but none of them are even close to my scum reads.
Like I said, I'll hammer a mislynch if I see an opportunity and town screws up.
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@Greyparrot
Confirmed. Tomorrow we will just end. I just don't trust all the stuff they have claimed and want to make sure I kill someone to confirm there isn't like a second tp/cult
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@Greyparrot
Hi <3
can you guys just vtnl so we can speed this up
vtnl
vtnl