Ozark Mafia Day Phase 3

Author: Lunatic

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#121
Mharman
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You know, MafiaUniverse does say Gramps has no specific alignment, so whoever said it was exclusively mafia was wrong. I should’ve fact checked it earlier?

But this is no guarantee. Gramps can be scum or town, and if Supa is scum, he can CC ComputerNerd to make him our lynch. If Supa is town, ComputerNerd is definitely scum. 

This does make me consider the idea: What if ComputerNerd was told to noob slip and claim cop? Seems very risky from mafia, so not very likely, especially since the slip happened early in the game. But still it can be considered.
#122
Vader
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Luna made a mistake. He now said that Computer did visit me
#123
Vader
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I did find it a bit odd that Computer went un CC'd as a cop and didn't die 
#124
ILikePie5
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Why would scum Supa CC an innocent read from a Cop? It doesn’t make sense either

#125
Mharman
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@Vader
I believe that honestly. I had to point out a mistaken vote count to Lunatic earlier. So I guess ComputerNerd did visit Supa.
#126
ILikePie5
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@Mharman
You know, MafiaUniverse does say Gramps has no specific alignment, so whoever said it was exclusively mafia was wrong. I should’ve fact checked it earlier?
I actually said that and you’re wrong. Says role is always scum-aligned

#127
ILikePie5
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@Lunatic
Can you confirm or deny?
#128
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@ILikePie5
I keep telling you this and you still refuse to listen. Lunatic is well known for making town roles scum and scum roles town. This logic you bring up is so bad
#129
ILikePie5
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@Vader
I keep telling you this and you still refuse to listen. Lunatic is well known for making town roles scum and scum roles town. This logic you bring up is so bad

You still haven’t brought up one role where this is true lol
#130
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@ILikePie5
Speedrace- George Carlin - Jailkeeper- Mafia(Lynched DP2)
BUT IN ANOTHER GAME

Bullish- You are Misery! This book is about an ex nurse, who kidnaps her favorite author whilst pretending to help him. Annie Wilkes is soon found out to be psychotic and ends up helping and harming her patient equally. You are the Jailkeeper! Each night you can protect a player. Protecting them will also roleblock them in the night phase. You win with the town. (Killed NP4)
You can look at other live mafia games too

My point stands even without evidence. You are basing this entire read off 1 site that he doesn't even list as a source for his roles. You don't have to play by the norms set and this argument is bad
#131
whiteflame
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There's an awful lot going on here that I don't get.

Supa CC's ComputerNerd about his visit. The only reason this makes sense is if we assume error on the part of Luna, which is a frustrating variable. It does make it difficult to believe that ComputerNerd and Supa are scum together (you'd think that, at minimum, Supa wouldn't actively sus ComputerNerd if they were together).

Then, we have ComputerNerd's action. I do believe that he visited Supa. Given that they are almost certainly not scum together, the question here is whether ComputerNerd visited him as a Cop or in some other capacity, though given that Supa had no claimed PR and scum had no reason to try to RB him, and given that Supa's role allows him to track who visits him, I have a hard time understanding why ComputerNerd would visit him as scum.

I can't make sense of this interplay with one of them being scum. If Supa was scum, he would have capitalized on our concerns over ComputerNerd and the potential falsification of his results. I was already starting to sus ComputerNerd and I wasn't alone in that. Renegging on the lack of validation of his visit just doesn't make sense if he's scum, and the whole "Gramps is scum-aligned" argument just doesn't work for me, especially as I've been given the role in live mafia as town and Luna is more than willing to shake things up. I also can't make sense of why ComputerNerd, as scum, would visit Supa.

So I'm refocusing. We have three scum left in the pool, and my POE places Mharman, Pie, Mikal and Sui in there. Sui's clearly scum. I think Pie is the most likely out of the remainder. Mikal's next. So, at least until I'm given good reason to think otherwise,

VTL Pie
#132
ILikePie5
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@whiteflame
So I'm refocusing. We have three scum left in the pool, and my POE places Mharman, Pie, Mikal and Sui in there. Sui's clearly scum. I think Pie is the most likely out of the remainder. Mikal's next. So, at least until I'm given good reason to think otherwise,
Have you considered my course of action?
#133
ILikePie5
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@Vader
Have you considered my course of action?
#134
whiteflame
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@ILikePie5
Yes, though I have reservations about it since, if he is town, it would cost us a town member during the DP and one during the NP, putting us at 2-2-1 instead of 3-2-1. Since he's on my list of potential scum, though... yes, I'd consider lynching Mikal.
#135
Mharman
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Supa has no reason to lie. If he were scum he could CC this and some heightened suspicion on ComputerNerd could result in him pushing ComputerNerd to get the game ending mislynch but he WITHDREW HIS CC. And if Supa is telling the truth here, I conclude he is most likely telling the truth about being Gramps and Supa is very likely town based on behavior along with this new information. And ComputerNerd would be telling the truth too since he would have a motive to say Supa is guilty. And I don’t see them being in a scum team together either; Supa CC’d ComputerNerd and he would have no reason to bus his teammate if he were mafia unless he intended to pull it back and fake a mistake from Lunatic, but I don’t think that’s the case.

So I think both are town. But that would leave Pie and Mikal on a scum team together with Sui, which I don’t think is possible either. Pie just said we could lynch Mikal and have Mikal shoot someone. Pie has no reason to bus Mikal. I know I’m town and I think ComputerNerd being town + my claim of Russ and theme analysis should confirm me. Plus, I’d have no reason to try make ComputerNerd be more active if I were scum; upon getting the Emissary knowledge I would’ve told my scum teammates to kill him in the night if I were scum. For me to be scum, I would have to have been planning everything, including the Emissary claim and pressuring of ComputerNerd for activity that would back up the Emissary claim before he claimed cop. Do you really think the guy who forgot how a ninja worked would be capable of that? You could say I was planning to forget how ninja worked, but I am not capable of that. I even said before the game started in sign-ups that I was not good at the game.

But that only leaves two mafia, Sui and Mikal or Pie. So who’s fake claiming? Whiteflame? Greyparrot? Neither are a great answer, so if I’m wrong on a town read let me know and why.
#136
Mharman
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Oh good lord I am stupid. I was looking at where it says “blank” under alignment I. The box at the top right on the page and didn’t even notice what it said right at the top of the paragraph, my bad. 
#137
ComputerNerd
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@whiteflame
I read your question on me investigating Supa. 

He's an active member, famously very good at Mafia, so I wanted to know if we could trust this veteran so we can gain insight from another perspective. 
Also, he was on Lean Mafia in Mharman's read on DP2, so I wanted to check. 
#138
Mharman
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Still, Supa’s behavior in this situation makes me think he is there is merit to Lunatic giving him a town aligned mafia role, and Supa did just give examples of Lunatic flipping roles’ alignments around in previous games.
#139
ComputerNerd
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I will withhold my vote until further evidence comes to light. Right now, I'm agreeing with Whiteflame and Mikal. Hosts aren't perfect. They're human beings. They make mistakes. So, my behavior and Supa's investigation are both correct. 

So, here are some simplified reads for anyone who isn't caught up:

Town:
  • ComputerNerd
  • Mharman
  • SupaDudz
Unsure:
  • Whiteflame
  • Greyparrot
Lean Mafia:
  • ILikePie5
  • Sui_Generis
  • Mikal
If  you feel one of these is wrong tell me. 
#140
Mharman
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Again there is merit to Lunatic flipping around roles’ alignments. He did it in Overwatch Mafia too, and that was before Supa and I even started playing mafia.
#141
ILikePie5
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@Mharman
Still, Supa’s behavior in this situation makes me think he is there is merit to Lunatic giving him a town aligned mafia role, and Supa did just give examples of Lunatic flipping roles’ alignments around in previous games.
Jailkeeper historically has been a role used on both sides. Not really ‘evidence’
#142
ILikePie5
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@Mharman
We could just be overthinking this and WF is scum based on this wild goose chase 
#143
ILikePie5
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@whiteflame
Yes, though I have reservations about it since, if he is town, it would cost us a town member during the DP and one during the NP, putting us at 2-2-1 instead of 3-2-1. Since he's on my list of potential scum, though... yes, I'd consider lynching Mikal.
Well we need Grey’s vote anyways to lynch scum today. Would be the same thing tomorrow. But we’d be hitting two birds with one stone. 
#144
whiteflame
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@Mharman
Supa has no reason to lie. If he were scum he could CC this and some heightened suspicion on ComputerNerd could result in him pushing ComputerNerd to get the game ending mislynch but he WITHDREW HIS CC. And if Supa is telling the truth here, I conclude he is most likely telling the truth about being Gramps and Supa is very likely town based on behavior along with this new information. And ComputerNerd would be telling the truth too since he would have a motive to say Supa is guilty. And I don’t see them being in a scum team together either; Supa CC’d ComputerNerd and he would have no reason to bus his teammate if he were mafia unless he intended to pull it back and fake a mistake from Lunatic, but I don’t think that’s the case.

So I think both are town. But that would leave Pie and Mikal on a scum team together with Sui, which I don’t think is possible either. Pie just said we could lynch Mikal and have Mikal shoot someone. Pie has no reason to bus Mikal. I know I’m town and I think ComputerNerd being town + my claim of Russ and theme analysis should confirm me. Plus, I’d have no reason to try make ComputerNerd be more active if I were scum; upon getting the Emissary knowledge I would’ve told my scum teammates to kill him in the night if I were scum. For me to be scum, I would have to have been planning everything, including the Emissary claim and pressuring of ComputerNerd for activity that would back up the Emissary claim before he claimed cop. Do you really think the guy who forgot how a ninja worked would be capable of that? You could say I was planning to forget how ninja worked, but I am not capable of that. I even said before the game started in sign-ups that I was not good at the game.

But that only leaves two mafia, Sui and Mikal or Pie. So who’s fake claiming? Whiteflame? Greyparrot? Neither are a great answer, so if I’m wrong on a town read let me know and why.

This looks pretty similar to the logic I posted for POE. I can't say that I see either CN or Supa as scum here. Their play doesn't fit the profile.

The only disagreement I have is with the notion that Pie and Mikal are definitely not a scum team. If they were, I think this is exactly what they'd do, especially given the narrowing pool of suspects. I've seen Pie hard bus his partners early in the DP before, and this wasn't really early at all. It reads to me of him waiting until he felt there was little other choice. Note that he said this before Supa CC'd ComputerNerd. The only other potentially viable option would've been for him to push a lynch on Supa, which probably would have made more sense for him at that moment, but given that Supa would confirm ComputerNerd's visit, I could see why he might have been hesitant to push that lynch.

There's clearly some WIFOM analysis in here, but I could certainly see scenarios where Pie and Mikal could be scum partners. I don't think that the reality that Pie would be bussing him pretty hard at this stage does a lot to reduce the plausibility of it.
#145
Mharman
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@whiteflame
But either way, a Sui lynch can't happen and a lynch on you or Greyparrot (because I'm legit starting to wonder if he made the ballsiest fake claim ever)v is too risky for town atm. So a lynch between Mikal and Pie is necessary for me. I think Pie is scummier than Mikal, do you agree?
#146
whiteflame
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@Mharman
I do. I will say that Pie still has a point about how a lynch on Mikal could work either way, though like I’ve said, I have reservations about that strategy.
#147
Mharman
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@whiteflame
I do too. If Lunatic counts a mislynch on Mikal as goin from 4-3-1 to 3-3-1 (assuming MIkal is town) and ends the game before it becomes 3-2-1 (in favor of town), then town loses and the strategy fails.
#148
Mharman
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@whiteflame
And that's assuming Mikal picks the right guy to kill, too.
#149
Mharman
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@ILikePie5
Post #136 is a response to Post #126. Forgot to tag you in it.
#150
whiteflame
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@Mharman
True on both fronts. He is right that we’ll have to get GP on board with any choice we make, so he’ll have to chime in eventually.