Ozark Mafia Day Phase 3

Supa has no reason to lie. If he were scum he could CC this and some heightened suspicion on ComputerNerd could result in him pushing ComputerNerd to get the game ending mislynch but he WITHDREW HIS CC.

And if Supa is telling the truth here, I conclude he is most likely telling the truth about being Gramps and Supa is very likely town based on behavior along with this new information.

And ComputerNerd would be telling the truth too since he would have a motive to say Supa is guilty. And I don’t see them being in a scum team together either; Supa CC’d ComputerNerd and he would have no reason to bus his teammate if he were mafia unless he intended to pull it back and fake a mistake from Lunatic, but I don’t think that’s the case.

After creating sufficient confusion, which is what mafia seek to do.

Still ignores the Lawyer angle.

I've seen Pie hard bus his partners early in the DP before, and this wasn't really early at all. It reads to me of him waiting until he felt there was little other choice.

Note that he said this before Supa CC'd ComputerNerd. The only other potentially viable option would've been for him to push a lynch on Supa, which probably would have made more sense for him at that moment, but given that Supa would confirm ComputerNerd's visit, I could see why he might have been hesitant to push that lynch.

There's clearly some WIFOM analysis in here, but I could certainly see scenarios where Pie and Mikal could be scum partners. I don't think that the reality that Pie would be bussing him pretty hard at this stage does a lot to reduce the plausibility of it.

Yeah but that confusion could lead to town going for some reversal anti-meta whatever play and lynching Supa. He'd be stupid to try it.

I must have missed where you posted this. What is the lawyer angle?

You’d also have to consider that I’d be brain dead from your POV to redirect WF to my own scum partner rather to another known townie or even WF himself.

A redirect here has all of the benefits of the confusion it has caused so far, along with protecting a valuable mafia power role. It's obvious scum would want to protect their power roles, but the confusion is something I recall you said yourself mafia wants in Post #151.

If I wanted to bus, I would’ve bussed hard like I did with Lunatic at the beginning. I’m capable of bussing. We all are. But you’re actively ignoring that I’m a fairly calculative player.

I still think Supa is scum. ComputerNerd could’ve been redirected if we’re considering the redirection angle.

You’d also have to consider that I’d be brain dead from your POV to redirect WF to my own scum partner rather to another known townie or even WF himself. After my last game, you really think I’d do that?

I thought I mentioned it when we were on The Godfather track. A Lawyer could been on Supa making him Inno. It also works with your JOAT theory.

Still, I am combing through the archives to verify Supa's claims of Lunatic role swapping. Earlier I backed Supa up saying Lunatic did it in Overwatch Mafia, but a voter stealer/vote buyer/politician (which he gave to a town Soldier 76) isn't technically town or mafia, I just assumed it was normally mafia there. 

On a side note, this is Lunatic using Whiteflame's current role as a town role, so I think Whiteflame truly is not lying about his role.

Which leads me to a very crazy-sounding claim: Unless there is major WIFOM coordination by Pie and Mikal, Greyparrot is lying and has made the ballsiest fake claim in history (only Tvellalot's town bus driver claim can challenge it, but the difference is that Tvellalot was under pressure when he made his claim).

Why yes, I do research near-ancient mafia games if I feel like it.

Not convinced that you would have run things that way, given the circumstances, though everything I have to say on that is WIFOM, so I'll abstain. I do think that your doing it was calculated, so yes, I feel that that falls in line with what I know of your scum play.

Frankly, I can't make sense of how this would work. Supa had an opportunity to push hard on ComputerNerd and refused to take it. No, actually, it's stranger than that: he did push on ComputerNerd with the CC, and then renegged on it. So what would have had to happen, if there was a redirect, is that Supa either redirected him or gave someone on his team the go-ahead to redirect, then responded to ComputerNerd's claim that he was copped by flatly denying it, and then changed his tune shortly thereafter. The only sense I can make of that is that he forgot about the redirect, believed that he'd been copped guilty (despite ComputerNerd saying he was innocent), denied the copping ever happened to escape it, and then realized his mistake and made an about-face. I'm not saying that that's impossible, but that involves a lot more effort and lapses on his part than make sense to me.

...I don't understand this response. We all knew that Sui was guilty after last DP. Redirecting me was smart: it prevented an easy lynch on the most scumread person in the game, forcing town to make tough decisions among the remainder of the players.

That's not a brain dead response - it makes a lot more sense than redirecting me to a known townie just to reduce the number of votes we have by one, since that would leave the number of votes we'd need to lynch at the same number and still require all of town and the claimed TP to agree.

As for directing it back to me, I know that's not possible because my PM says that I can't self-target, though again, I don't really know why that would be a better move. Maybe you'd disagree that it makes sense, but I see perfect sense in it, and I'll say that that's true regardless of who else is scum.

ohhh true. But that would require mafia to know he was targeting Supa.

Plus I now believe Supa is town based on his interaction with ComputerNerd (to be confirmed for me if I do find examples of Lunatic role switching in his games), so while I think godfather is possible, it isn't Supa's role.

Lawyer COULD belong to a teammate of Supa's if he was mafia, but there is a problem with this as well. The most prominent lawyer character has already been revealed to be Airmax, and Airmax/Helen was a babysitter.

Lunatic did say he threw this game together, so why not mix up an old game?

Still looking to verify that. As for the recent interaction between Supa and ComputerNerd, I do think Sui is smart enough to script it, but only for Supa. You can't have ComputerNerd fake cop AND a fake CC/withdraw whatever from Supa.

But Supa did mention a mistake from Lunatic and I have seen Lunatic make one mistake modding already, so I still think the interaction could be real as well, unless mafia thought to fake a mod mistake too. Which is also possible, since a mistake on a vote count is easier to make than a mistake on a PM. 

If Lunatic did make a PM mistake, I want to say I am not trying to flame Lunatic here; if anything I'm grateful he put on this game. I've made worse modding mistakes, that's for sure.

My question is, if it's Sui and Supa, who is third? I don't think Whiteflame, but that leaves you and Mikal on the table to be the third. I would go for Mikal in this case, but I would lynch Supa first.

Still most scenarios in my head lead to you or Mikal, in which I pretty much always pick you.  

So I am changing my ideal lynch to you or Supa. Lynching Supa is a good way to test you, but we're in MYLO. We can't lynch someone just to test something anymore. We have to hit scum.