Bakugan Battle Brawlers Mafia DP2

Author: ILikePie5

Posts

Total: 142
#61
whiteflame
whiteflame's avatar
Debates: 27
Posts: 4,820
4
6
10
whiteflame's avatar
whiteflame
4
6
10
-->
@Polyglot
I’m a redirecter and I redirected Wylted’s action onto Drlebronski. It helped that Drlebronski also visited Wylted. So that’s why Wylted saw Drlebronski visit himself instead of seeing Lunatic.

Based on those actions I can deduce that Wylted and Drlebronski is probably town. 
While I'd agree that they're probably both town, this series of events doesn't line up with what Wylted said happened. Wylted said that his role failed, meaning that he didn't see anyone visit anyone else. Besides that, what you redirected was the Watcher, which means that he watched who visited Bron, not who Bron visited (that would be a Tracker). If his role failed, it stands to reason that either Wylted was also RB'd or Bron has some role similar to Ascetic that prevents him from being the subject of roles like the Watcher. If it's the first, this would also mean that Wylted was the target of FOUR night actions (mine, Bron's, yours, and an unknown fourth party), and if it's the second, then that means we should be sussing Bron.

Also, why did you choose to redirect Wylted's night action, specifically? And why to Bron?
#62
Wylted
Wylted's avatar
Debates: 34
Posts: 5,754
3
4
11
Wylted's avatar
Wylted
3
4
11
-->
@Polyglot
the exact words were "your action failed"
#63
Polyglot
Polyglot's avatar
Debates: 0
Posts: 327
1
2
5
Polyglot's avatar
Polyglot
1
2
5
I was a watcher and watched lunatic. My role failed. Not only did I fail, but my role changed In The middle of the night after being visited by drlebronsky.

So how does Wylted know he was visited by drlebronski 
#64
Wylted
Wylted's avatar
Debates: 34
Posts: 5,754
3
4
11
Wylted's avatar
Wylted
3
4
11
We probably have a noob scum team, so bron evil makes sense. 


Unvote
#65
Polyglot
Polyglot's avatar
Debates: 0
Posts: 327
1
2
5
Polyglot's avatar
Polyglot
1
2
5
And I think Whiteflame should also say what he knows in regards to his role. Cause it seems like my action only partially worked
#66
whiteflame
whiteflame's avatar
Debates: 27
Posts: 4,820
4
6
10
whiteflame's avatar
whiteflame
4
6
10
-->
@Polyglot
And I think Whiteflame should also say what he knows in regards to his role. Cause it seems like my action only partially worked
I'm not going to get into it unless I absolutely have to at this stage. Suffice it to say that it wouldn't have interfered with Wylted's role during this NP. It's also unclear what you mean when you say that your "action only partially worked" - that just doesn't make sense, you either redirected his role to Bron or you didn't. It's possible that you were RB'd, but considering that Wylted actually received the message that his role failed, I find it hard to believe that, if yours had failed, you wouldn't get the same message. So we should assume that yours worked, and therefore that Wylted ended up targeting Bron.

I would, however, like you to ask Pie an important question. If your target was RB'd, would you have been informed that your action had failed?

#67
Wylted
Wylted's avatar
Debates: 34
Posts: 5,754
3
4
11
Wylted's avatar
Wylted
3
4
11
-->
@Polyglot
We've all said enough. Let's try to figure out this puzzle with the available information. Particularly why did my action fail?


#68
Polyglot
Polyglot's avatar
Debates: 0
Posts: 327
1
2
5
Polyglot's avatar
Polyglot
1
2
5
-->
@whiteflame
I’m assuming this because Wylted wasn’t able to use his role on Drlebronski.

But with all that we know, we can deduce that Wylted, Whiteflame, Drlebronski, and I weren’t the ones that did the night kill.

That still leaves Lunatic and Evilgenius, as well as Greyparrot, but we already have him as basically confirmed.
#69
whiteflame
whiteflame's avatar
Debates: 27
Posts: 4,820
4
6
10
whiteflame's avatar
whiteflame
4
6
10
-->
@Wylted
As I see it, the split is pretty clear: we either sus Bron because he did something that blocked your Watcher (I would have assumed Ascetic, and initially thought that Poly had Redirected you to GP when I saw that he posted his actions, but now that's off the table unless we assume yet another redirect was in play), or we assume that you were targeted by a fourth person who RB'd you. The question I'm hoping Poly will ask Pie should answer whether the latter is possible.
#70
Wylted
Wylted's avatar
Debates: 34
Posts: 5,754
3
4
11
Wylted's avatar
Wylted
3
4
11
-->
@whiteflame
I get a feeling poly will just refuse to ask that question
#71
Polyglot
Polyglot's avatar
Debates: 0
Posts: 327
1
2
5
Polyglot's avatar
Polyglot
1
2
5
-->
@Wylted
I already asked. Just waiting for an answer. 
#72
whiteflame
whiteflame's avatar
Debates: 27
Posts: 4,820
4
6
10
whiteflame's avatar
whiteflame
4
6
10
-->
@Polyglot
I’m assuming this because Wylted wasn’t able to use his role on Drlebronski.

But with all that we know, we can deduce that Wylted, Whiteflame, Drlebronski, and I weren’t the ones that did the night kill.

That still leaves Lunatic and Evilgenius, as well as Greyparrot, but we already have him as basically confirmed.
I don't see how we can determine much of this from your Redirect, actually. Wylted couldn't have performed the NK, certainly, but Bron could. Even if the Watcher had gone through, it wouldn't tell us whether or not he performed the NK, but since the Watcher didn't work, we can't say anything about Bron beyond what he has told us. I'd say that my role and its connections with Wylted should give a strong indication that we are both town, but absent that, I could absolutely have executed the NK. You can target someone with a role and simultaneously NK a different target.

Right now, what your Redirect tells me is that we should be sussing Bron.
#73
whiteflame
whiteflame's avatar
Debates: 27
Posts: 4,820
4
6
10
whiteflame's avatar
whiteflame
4
6
10
-->
@Wylted
I get a feeling poly will just refuse to ask that question
Everything coming from Poly makes me townread him, and everything I'm hearing about Bron makes me question my initial read on him in this DP. Right now, I'd say Bron, Evil and Luna are all plausible scum, and I'm starting to think that Luna had the right of it when he said that it could just be Bron and Evil.

In any case, for now, I'm going to unvote. I'd still like a full claim from Evil, but barring an answer from Poly that upends this theory, Bron is pretty clearly scum since his Bodyguard does not account for this. The fact that his claim looks as solid as it does could just be the result of getting a good fake claim.



#74
Polyglot
Polyglot's avatar
Debates: 0
Posts: 327
1
2
5
Polyglot's avatar
Polyglot
1
2
5
It does seem slightly sketchy that Drlebronski chose to post his whole role instead of just summarize it. Even after all the heat we gave GP for doing the same. It could be a given fake claim or something they had made and ready in the scum chat.

justification is that i saved 2 bakugan and im 2x bodyguard.
Also here(post 11) Drlebronski chose to give further justification and explanation after posting his role. This was unnecessary as we can clearly see the justification in his first post. 
#75
whiteflame
whiteflame's avatar
Debates: 27
Posts: 4,820
4
6
10
whiteflame's avatar
whiteflame
4
6
10
-->
@Polyglot
It does seem slightly sketchy that Drlebronski chose to post his whole role instead of just summarize it. Even after all the heat we gave GP for doing the same. It could be a given fake claim or something they had made and ready in the scum chat.
I'll say this much: I would've sussed him harder if he'd been more evasive and had only provided the basics of his claim. Knowing that we can post the entire thing without getting modkilled means that we should largely be pushing for it with every full claim we're aiming to get. GP did get a lot of heat for it, but that was mainly because he was aiming to get modkilled for doing it, not so much for having made the claim (he has a habit of full claiming in his first post anyway). Not to say that this vindicates Bron, but it doesn't make me sus him.

justification is that i saved 2 bakugan and im 2x bodyguard.
Also here(post 11) Drlebronski chose to give further justification and explanation after posting his role. This was unnecessary as we can clearly see the justification in his first post. 
This, on the other hand, did catch my eye. The extra emphasis on the justification seemed a little strange to me, and it could easily be something he was told to say as a basis for improving how good a fake claim looks. He certainly didn't need to do this, and it seems more defensive than was warranted.
#76
Polyglot
Polyglot's avatar
Debates: 0
Posts: 327
1
2
5
Polyglot's avatar
Polyglot
1
2
5
Pie told me that I won’t be told if the person I redirected is roleblocked.
#77
whiteflame
whiteflame's avatar
Debates: 27
Posts: 4,820
4
6
10
whiteflame's avatar
whiteflame
4
6
10
-->
@Polyglot
Pie told me that I won’t be told if the person I redirected is roleblocked.
Alright, last thought before I call it a night. This does leave open the possibility that Wylted was roleblocked, so that's a possibility we'll have to contend with. Nonetheless, given the fact that you did at least try to Redirect him, that vindicates Luna from having some role that prevents the Watcher from being effective. While it's possible that Wylted was just the target of virtually everything that happened during this NP, it's not particularly strange for Bron to have given him as a target for his night action just in case someone else was Tracking him. The BG role is good cover for that, since it can't be verified. If that's true, Bron almost certainly didn't perform the NK, since that would have shown him going to two targets at once.

Regardless, I'd say that Bron is currently the most scummy based on what we've seen so far. Still want a claim from Evil, and would suggest that he's the target of the next lynch in DP3, given his almost complete absence from this one so far.

#78
drlebronski
drlebronski's avatar
Debates: 14
Posts: 993
3
5
9
drlebronski's avatar
drlebronski
3
5
9

All I know is that i randomly chose to bodyguard wylted.


#79
whiteflame
whiteflame's avatar
Debates: 27
Posts: 4,820
4
6
10
whiteflame's avatar
whiteflame
4
6
10
-->
@Polyglot
@drlebronski
All I know is that i randomly chose to bodyguard wylted.
That doesn't really help your case, though. I'd expect you to select randomly, but the fact that you picked Wylted stands out, since it looks like three of us targeted him, and yours is the only one that's completely unverifiable. Given that Wylted was RB'd, you have pretty good odds of either being the one who RB'd him and using your BG claim as cover in case you were Tracked, or somehow making his action fail as a result of targeting you via the Redirect.

There is just a lot going on here that I'd still like to spend time considering and, hopefully, get Luna's input. Given the claimed Redirect from Poly, the claimed BG from Bron, and my interaction with Wylted, there's an awful lot going on here, which seems especially strange because it was focused on Wylted, specifically. I picked Wylted after some POE with regards to who I thought was potential scum and who I thought could make good decisions if they were town. Didn't expect the response I got, but there's still value to it.

I'm not sure what led Poly to target Wylted, and I've noticed that he avoided answering that particular question. Did you sus Wylted? Why Redirect him to Bron, specifically?

#80
Wylted
Wylted's avatar
Debates: 34
Posts: 5,754
3
4
11
Wylted's avatar
Wylted
3
4
11
-->
@Polyglot
Pie told me that I won’t be told if the person I redirected is roleblocked.
Your question was not if you would be told. WTF?

Obviously you won't be. I Tapout if I would be told
#81
Polyglot
Polyglot's avatar
Debates: 0
Posts: 327
1
2
5
Polyglot's avatar
Polyglot
1
2
5
-->
@whiteflame
I'm not sure what led Poly to target Wylted, and I've noticed that he avoided answering that particular question. Did you sus Wylted? Why Redirect him to Bron, specifically?
After DP1 I had about 4 people who I thought were the least town confirmed. Both Wylted and Drlebronski were on that list. I chose them hoping one was possibly mafia with a chance to redirect mafia onto mafia. 
#82
whiteflame
whiteflame's avatar
Debates: 27
Posts: 4,820
4
6
10
whiteflame's avatar
whiteflame
4
6
10
-->
@Wylted
Your question was not if you would be told. WTF?

Obviously you won't be. I Tapout if I would be told
The question I gave him to ask was: "If your target was RB'd, would you have been informed that your action had failed?"

So, while Poly's answer doesn't directly address the issue, I think we can infer from his response that Pie would not inform him that his action had failed, i.e. he would have to have been RB'd himself or have targeted someone like the Ascetic to have his action fail. In other words, he could successfully redirect a failed action, which means you could have been subject to an RB and he would be given no indication. That makes sense to me, since he could potentially have targeted a Vanilla player and technically the Redirect would have been successful on them even though they did nothing.
#83
Polyglot
Polyglot's avatar
Debates: 0
Posts: 327
1
2
5
Polyglot's avatar
Polyglot
1
2
5
-->
@Wylted
I doubt a roleblock on my target would affect my role in anyway and I would need to be told that.

Because if I chose to redirect someone who is vanilla for example I’m pretty sure my action would just be confirmed but nothing would happen because that person is roleless. 

#84
Polyglot
Polyglot's avatar
Debates: 0
Posts: 327
1
2
5
Polyglot's avatar
Polyglot
1
2
5
-->
@whiteflame
So, while Poly's answer doesn't directly address the issue, I think we can infer from his response that Pie would not inform him that his action had failed, i.e. he would have to have been RB'd himself or have targeted someone like the Ascetic to have his action fail. In other words, he could successfully redirect a failed action, which means you could have been subject to an RB and he would be given no indication. That makes sense to me, since he could potentially have targeted a Vanilla player and technically the Redirect would have been successful on them even though they did nothing.
This. 
#85
Polyglot
Polyglot's avatar
Debates: 0
Posts: 327
1
2
5
Polyglot's avatar
Polyglot
1
2
5
-->
@Lunatic
@Evilgenius
We need some activity from you two. 
#86
whiteflame
whiteflame's avatar
Debates: 27
Posts: 4,820
4
6
10
whiteflame's avatar
whiteflame
4
6
10
-->
@Polyglot
@Evilgenius
After DP1 I had about 4 people who I thought were the least town confirmed. Both Wylted and Drlebronski were on that list. I chose them hoping one was possibly mafia with a chance to redirect mafia onto mafia.
Alright, I can respect that. I don't think I would have made those two choices in particular, but they were also on my potential scum list at the time. In general, I'm having a difficult time seeing you as sus based on your choices and behavior, and I think the Redirector is just generally not a claim that I'd anticipate scum giving unless they were forced to do so after someone Tracked them. I know we've had a good number of both scum and town Redirectors, and Pie tends to play around a bit with what looks to be confirmed affiliations, so I'm buying that you did this, which just leaves open the question of what else happened.

We know that the Redirect was successful, so instead of Watching Luna, Wylted should have Watched Bron. That might have given no result as well, since Bron may not have been visited by anyone, but Wylted's role failed, which means he was either subject to an RB or was prevented from seeing anything by Bron's role. Either way, Bron could be implicated, given that he already claims to have visited Wylted, chose him "randomly" (sounds convenient), and used an unconfirmable role to do it. He looks scummy to me.

Which, of course, begs the question of who his partner is. This is really frustrating because Evil looks scummy as hell with his extremely limited presence in both DPs and his acknowledgement of the pressure on him in this DP. He should have given his claim ages ago. I'm struggling with whether this is scummy or just extremely anti-town because, while this is the first time Evil has done this, his behavior has been a consistent source of frustration for me. He could be scum, and at this point, if he doesn't full claim in his very next post, I can't see any reason why we shouldn't lynch him during the next DP.

At the same time, I don't think Bron is coming up with this all by himself. If he flips scum and we assume he used a fake claim given to him by Pie, then he also thought to claim that he visited Wylted and that he chose him randomly. Maybe he could have come up with that himself, but there's some calculation in there that may be coming from someone else, and that someone isn't Evil. I'm still considering Luna and GP at this point, the former a little more so than the latter, but only for circumstantial reasons (the early full claim and absence of his wincon from said claim). It is not lost on me that the failure of Wylted's role may still be tied to the Ascetic in some way. Still, I'd say the Bron/Evil scum team is currently the most likely option, albeit with some niggling caveats.

#87
whiteflame
whiteflame's avatar
Debates: 27
Posts: 4,820
4
6
10
whiteflame's avatar
whiteflame
4
6
10
-->
@Evilgenius
You do know that we can see when you were most recently on, right? We can tell that you're hopping on and not posting anything. Even for you, the lack of participation here is out of character, so while I don't know what you expect to gain by not posting, I can tell you that you only stand to lose by ignoring us.
#88
whiteflame
whiteflame's avatar
Debates: 27
Posts: 4,820
4
6
10
whiteflame's avatar
whiteflame
4
6
10
-->
@Lunatic
@Greyparrot
@Wylted
@Polyglot
Also, it's pretty clear that GP is just going to be dead weight at this point, since he hasn't posted once in this DP. If we are going to lynch Bron, given Evil's lack of participation (and likely unwillingness to get on the lynch anyway), we'd everyone else - Poly, Luna and Wylted - on board to execute it. Poly seems like he's game, not sure how either Luna or Wylted is feeling about it. We have a while yet, but given the lack of an NK during NP2, I think we'd be remiss to not at least secure a lynch. 

#89
Polyglot
Polyglot's avatar
Debates: 0
Posts: 327
1
2
5
Polyglot's avatar
Polyglot
1
2
5
How much longer is the day phase. A lynch on drlebronski seems most appropriate. Although I still want to hear something from Lunatic before we end the day phase. 
#90
whiteflame
whiteflame's avatar
Debates: 27
Posts: 4,820
4
6
10
whiteflame's avatar
whiteflame
4
6
10
-->
@Polyglot
If I'm reading it right, then we have a day and about 19 hours before the end of the DP, so I'm not concerned about it lapsing before we can get input from Luna. I'd just like to make sure that we don't lose sight of the goal here. Honestly, at this point, I'd be fine with lynching either Bron or Evil, though I'd prefer the former.