Bakugan Battle Brawlers Mafia DP2

Author: ILikePie5

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Wylted
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I told you to lynch me. That should be good enough.
drlebronski
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@Wylted
i highly doubt i have a hidden ability that makes me change roles.

No thats not good enough lol
whiteflame
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@Wylted
I’m confused by much of what you’re saying.

If we should lynch the first person who self-voted, then you’re a DP behind GP, so I don’t know why you’d suddenly move to the top of the list.

If there’s some unique reason that we should move to lynch you, then present it. I’m not going to lynch you just because you voted for yourself. I thought it was a bad reason when GP did it, and I think it’s a bad reason now.

I’m not sure what unique opportunity the lack of NKs during the NP grants us, but that doesn’t mean we should throw away a lynch. 
whiteflame
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@Wylted
I was a watcher and watched lunatic. My role failed. Not only did I fail, but my role changed In The middle of the night after being visited by drlebronsky. 

I think the scum team is lebronsky and lunatic, let's kill me and take the game to LYLO.
Alright, questions. First, you say your role failed and somehow changed. How did it change?

Second, while I can understand sussing Bron for having admitted to visiting you, I don't know why scum would admit to having visited you if they had RB'd or somehow modified your role.

Third, why are you sussing Luna? I'm not seeing any reasoning for that.

martyr me, and Allah akbar 
Still have no idea why you're pushing for this. Give a full explanation of what you're doing and why because this just looks unhinged.

Wylted
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@whiteflame
it doesn't matter who I sus. I will confirm that a character named 

Haos Saurus is in the game. It isn't my character and the person is likely scum. 
Wylted
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The optimal move for town is to lynch me, unless it is 100% certain who the remaining scum is. The other option is to no lynch based on what I know.

Here are the options that are okay.

1. Lynch scum but only if 100% certai. They are scum

2. Lynch me

3. No lynch 

A lynch of town puts us at  possible LYLo. I'll explain later if forced. 

A lynch of me, will also put us at lylo, but with a better chance at catching scum. 


drlebronski
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@Evilgenius
What are you doing? youve been online within the last hour you need to claim
Wylted
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Even if has is not scum, if he comes forward today, he should be lynched . The character is in the game though
Wylted
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Guys we can not afford for evil to be town. He was mislynched 4 times in a row. Let's just kill me and reanalalyze next dp
whiteflame
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@Wylted
Dude, you are still all over the place, but at least I now know what's going on. Your role did not change. You are still the Watcher and, clearly, you were RB'd. I'm Haos Saurus, and I would very much prefer that you don't say anything more about what happened that you interpreted as a role change. It would also be dumb as fuck to get yourself lynched over it. I would prefer not to elaborate myself because that would also be a big mistake. At least now I'm quite certain that you're town because you'd never do this as scum.
Wylted
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@whiteflame
My role has changed as well. I'm practically vanilla and you haven't run the numbers. What I am saying makes mathematical since at increasing the odds of a town win. 

Wylted
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Since = sense
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@Lunatic
any theory as to why my action would fail when I targeted you?
Wylted
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@whiteflame
I can't lay out the numbers without giving everything away, but a lynch of me gives town a higher chance of winning. 

A mislynch of evil and skipping NK

Puts us at 

4-2

If what happens I think will happen, we are looking at the game ending with a no lynch in what everyone thought was Mylo

We I think are choosing lylo at 4-2 instead of lylo being at 3-2  if the other strategy pans out and  a 4-2 lylo has more potential mislymches

If you are town, you should be able to see the logic of me being lynched leading to a more favorable lylo situation. 
whiteflame
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@Wylted
Dude, I see you as town confirmed. You should be seeing me largely in the same light unless you think that role change is the result of me being scum. I don’t see how you came to that conclusion, and I definitely do not see how you could come to the conclusion that the best thing for us to do now is lynch you. You can present the numbers any way you want, but if you understand the PM you received, lynching you or me should be absolutely off the table.
Wylted
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We'll talk about it in the endgame. The strategy is counter intuitive if we are both town, but good from a pure numbers standpoint 
whiteflame
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@Wylted
It’s also batshit insane and would put town in a terrible position. Seriously, even if you’re townreading me slightly, this has got to be the worst proposal I’ve seen. At this point, I’d actively consider any other lynch over yours.
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@whiteflame
You are simultaneously agreeing with the numbers perspective and also calling it bat shit insane. Do you just lack creativity?

Wylted
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Town is going to be in a terrible position next dp. What I propose makes it a slightly less terrible co diction. It's fine I have an alternative plan as well, that is more intuitively correct, but from a bayesian standpoint a worse though good position 
whiteflame
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@Wylted
The only reason I can come up with for the numbers helping your case is if we lack sufficient POE to select plausible scum. As far as I can tell, we have it limited to three people who I either null read or read as scum at this stage:

Poly
Luna
Evil

We get two lynches in consecutive DPs without a NK in between. That gives us the ability to knock out two of these. Instead, you’d rather get yourself lynched and take the resulting consequences. Why the fuck would we waste this opportunity to eliminate two strong townreads?

Polyglot
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I’m confused why Wylted will want to Lynch himself and how that would benefit town in anyway. But I can confirm his actions. 
Polyglot
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Based on what I know I can deduce that Mafia is residing within Lunatic, Whiteflame, or Evilgenius 

Polyglot
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But I’m really confused as to why Wylted wants to Lynch himself?
whiteflame
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@Polyglot
I’m confused why Wylted will want to Lynch himself and how that would benefit town in anyway. But I can confirm his actions.
Yep, it’s confusing to me and I know exactly what happened that’s making him think this.

Also, how can you confirm his actions? He said he was RB’d. Are you saying that you still saw him visit his target and that it simply failed? What role did you use to determine this?

Based on what I know I can deduce that Mafia is residing within Lunatic, Whiteflame, or Evilgenius
I’d agree with that list, and am very close to just revealing my role at this point because it’s becoming more obvious with every post Wylted uses to drag this out.

Wylted
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@Polyglot
just out with it. What were your actions?
Polyglot
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I’m a redirecter and I redirected Wylted’s action onto Drlebronski. It helped that Drlebronski also visited Wylted. So that’s why Wylted saw Drlebronski visit himself instead of seeing Lunatic.

Based on those actions I can deduce that Wylted and Drlebronski is probably town. 
Wylted
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@Polyglot
Why would you redirect me? What was your mindset, and since when has redirextor been a town role? 
Wylted
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my action would not have said failed, just because I was redirected.
Polyglot
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@Wylted
It’s possible as town. A town redirecter would be able to redirect the night kill into a scummy player or any mafia power roles onto themselves 
Polyglot
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@Wylted
my action would not have said failed, just because I was redirected.

What was the wording exactly? The redirect still happened regardless, you intended to watch Lunatic, but instead you watched Drlebronski. Your action didn’t actually fail.