Fairy Tail Mafia DP1

Author: Vader

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RationalMadman
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@Earth
You are yourself as are the people voting you themselves. Therefore, act on your own behalf. Why are you hesitating? Even if Coal is a town PR at this precise point qe need to force it out of him. He has played both sides of every encounter other than him vs Oromagi.
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@RationalMadman
let me reread and I'll give my opinion.
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If Coal's claim is solid and worthy of hesitation, we lynch whiteflame next. Whiteflame is educated on the Anime enough to make a great fakeclaim but the situation is perfect, he's right in the middle, can't CC the others, can't claim a decent char without a risk. 
Fast. Do this fast. Coal first, trust me.

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@whiteflame
Vote Coal if you are not afraid to claim if he's a strong PR.
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This buddying between Earth and RM is enough.

VTL Earth
RationalMadman
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We are at a crucial point, show weakness and mafia have time and emotions to stay calm and ready. Do this fast, fast. Before AFKs return, before the mafia can stop panicking. We can control the day phase, do not relinquish the momentum.
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The next time I open this page I hope to see votes on Coal.
oromagi
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@RationalMadman

Added 04.10.21 07:27PM
--> @oromagi
Give the reason not to vote coal?
  • pls summarize the reasons to vote for coal
  • he seems to be actively hunting
  • his sus on me does not make him more sus to me
  • both of these seem scummier
    • the DAY COP seemed pretty fake, followed by a secondary claim
    • the MILLER also seems way fake
    • I think I believe your claim
  • We haven't even heard from Speed or TUF- if either is TOWN I would value their insight right about now

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@RationalMadman
Vote Coal if you are not afraid to claim if he's a strong PR.
It seems like you were trying to say two different things at once here. Mind splitting them up?
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@whiteflame
It's enough that I'm more than willing to lynch him today.
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@coal
Happy to do it as well, just trying to understand the ramblings of a Madman.
ILikePie5
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@Vader
Can you ping Speed on Discord?
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@whiteflame
Happy to do it as well
Happy to? Interesting, no idea why you'd be happy to lynch me and agree happily with someone who hasn't so much as softclaimed but I'll explain more in my next post, I am trying to lay out my thought process so you guys can follow it.
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@RationalMadman
Pretty sure I mentioned my concerns with your claim already, but setting that aside, I was talking about lynching Earth, which I still support. Would love to get some clarification on that post I mentioned earlier.
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@whiteflame
haha I'm almost enjoying the new and creative ways he comes up with to argue that everything I do is scum.

So it turns out that, by the fact I'm in the game, I am scum according to RM.

But not TP.  Nope, he's hunting those in another set of efforts.  

Only scum.  

Yep
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@Earth
@whiteflame
@ILikePie5
@oromagi
@FourTrouble
A lot of people have their own takes on Mafia but generally most follow one of three takes:

1) The Mechanist
They look at the mechanics of the game, limitations of role balancing, predictions of actions at night, reads based on votes so on and so forth. These people tend to be hardest to read in general, because whether they are Mafia or Town they play a mechanical way and tend to always run the same algorithms in their head.

2) The Harvey Specters
They play the men/women not the odds. They think the game comes down to psychology and nothing else. In this game FourtTrouble has been self-confessed to this ideology/perspective. Unlike Mechanists, who tend to front with ego when covering for a scumtell, these types have ego regardless, they only get quiet and humble when they're satisfied they've towntold enough and want to observe others.

3) The Snowballers
Day 1 and Night 1 are a piss-take to this type of player. They observe the game as it goes along, draw both mechanic and Harvey Specter type analysis and conclude later on in an extremely educated manner but are very weak in the earlygame.

I would say that I am a type 4 player I perceive pressure in the game and act according to it.

Mafia isn't won, in my eyes, by stupidity vs cleverness, nor by social ignorance vs suave charm. Both play elements in the dynamic but ultimately it comes down to perceived pressure as well as literal time-based and mechanics-based pressure of either side. Mafia slip the most when they perceive extreme pressure, town tell the worst when they perceive lack of pressure.

This sounds simple and almost as if I am a Harvey Spectre camouflaging myself.

I am not.

What I do is different to reading people and exploiting those reads in itself. I analyse the genuine pressure and then compare it to the real pressure and draw reads, judge my own moves, craft my reads (some of which are sometimes fake) from that to even out the pressure at all times or unfairly push it in favour of my side and agenda in the game.

Coal has perceived very odd bursts of pressure in this game if he is town. He begins encouraging everyone to discuss the theme and roles-to-character links in the first post of the game, yet he does this by preying on Oromagi. When Oromagi doesn't budge and I begin pushing on him, he defends FourTrouble being town to someone else (I think it was Pie) and keeps going onto Oromagi, demanding reads from Oromagi.

This is not pure fluff, it's pressureless aggression however and Coal clearly knew that as all of a sudden he let go of Oromagi. As soon as the cop CC happened, he suddenly was calm, laid back and watching from the sidelines making a remark like 'sheesh now you complicated things'. This implied he hard-read FourTrouble as fake and me as real yet also read FT as hard-town. After Earth outs as miller he insists on not lynching the millers says 'you know why' to FT and makes some odd remark about a guy named Tim on DDO.

Then when I don't relinquish the push on him in the slightest even after the chaos he'd hoped had taken all the flack off of him, he returns to lynch Earth and say 'you know what whiteflame? Wanna bandwagon RM heh-heh?' 

This is showing me that pressure is only perceived and displayed in Coal's agenda when Coal feels he is under heat. It also tells me that for some reason Coal perceived absolutley no heat in the triangle between myself, FT and Earth. The reason I can be fairly certain he didn't fake the 'lack of heat' is how he acts so rapidly and obviously when it comes back onto him.

Now, we as town, regardless of Coal's pressure-perception, have at worst revealed a day cop 1x JOAT who just wasted their power on a miller and was CC'd by a night cop.

We gain nothing, fuck all unless we go 'this situation is alright if we keep the pressure going'. Mafia got lucky, the shit hit the fan and town got hit so far, but now that we have the 'shit' in our hands, we can smear it on them and make them squirm. It is up to us to do it, it is up to us to make the scum crumble under the pressure before they have enough time to think.

It's that simple.
so whiteflame I asked you if we bandwagon Coal and he claims good enough, you are next. Are you okay with that or are you scared if he's a strong PR?

It was a connected question, not in two parts.

I will lead this town to absolute victory if you allow me to. 
RationalMadman
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. I analyse the genuine pressure and then compare it to the real pressure
I meant genuine perceived pressure
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When Oromagi doesn't budge and I begin pushing on him, he defe
he and him mean Coal.
Lunatic
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Hey Im on a graveyard shift I will catch up tonight
oromagi
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@Lunatic
whole lotta shakin' goin' on

oromagi
TOWN
Coal
Whiteflame
MisterChris                  Mirajane Strauss  LOVED
RationalMadman            Doranbolt            COP [CC'd]
iLikePie5
FourTrouble                   Ezra Scarlet     (DAY)COP [CC'd]
                                                                           2nd: JOAT?
Earth                             Jellal  Fernandes      MILLER 
Lunatic
AWoL
Speedrace
SCUM



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@ILikePie5
Y’all probably played with FT on DDO back in the day. Anything unusual about his play so far from what y’all can remember?
Seems like the FT I remember so far. Pretty sure he was "ayyantu" in the Legend of zelda game. You can cross analyze his posts and probably find some similarities. 
Lunatic
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I have caught up, agreeing with a lot of the reads from FourtTrouble so far. 

Town pile:

FT, Coal (I can't explain why exactly, but I feel like I can read him when he is town pretty easily, and he is playing in a way that resembles his town play in live mafia. Also he hasn't been super tunnely and self righteous like he can get as scum), Whiteflame tenatively for early boarding the earth lynch.

Scum reads:

iLikePie5 (I'd say more for his reaction to FT pressure than post 17 that FT was initially suspicious of. Pie trying to discredit FT or dismiss him as if he doesn't fear the pressure doesn't seem genuine).

Earth (Again wasn't behind the original FOS on him since he was lazy town in the last game I played with him, but I gotta say it's pretty god damn convienent he turned out to be miller. Also I am pretty sure he would have SOP claimed that and is aware of the meta).

I kind of stopped reading RM's posts after he counter claimed FT, that was pretty downie. His contribution prior to that wasn't that helpful either, though I did town read him for his noobish counter claim of FT. 

It seems like I am parroting FT here, and admittedly I am. I do resonate with the way he plays and I think only have minor discrepancies, but in general I agree with the playstyle. I specifically liked that he said he was pushing for a lynch not a claim, that's something I was saying town should do for a while, but no one would ever get behind it. Behavior =/= character/role. FT like me has plaeyd in too many games where mods play with good vs bad mechanics or other theme differences to know hat behavior should trump all of that. 

Let's lynch earth today. 

VTL earth.


ILikePie5
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@Lunatic
iLikePie5 (I'd say more for his reaction to FT pressure than post 17 that FT was initially suspicious of. Pie trying to discredit FT or dismiss him as if he doesn't fear the pressure doesn't seem genuine).
He didn’t give any concrete reasons besides Pie’s scum based on Post this and that. Literally not the way it works here.
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@ILikePie5
iLikePie5 (I'd say more for his reaction to FT pressure than post 17 that FT was initially suspicious of. Pie trying to discredit FT or dismiss him as if he doesn't fear the pressure doesn't seem genuine).
He didn’t give any concrete reasons besides Pie’s scum based on Post this and that. Literally not the way it works here.

You have a scum tell that I noticed in drafters game when I was the seer and knew you were scum but couldn't out the info. It's like a cocky air of confidence, that I think is showing in your dismissal of FT entirely, trying to dis-credit the read based on his lack of experience with the site, etc. You play that way as scum, very cocky and arrogant. I feel like I'd notice more frustration or rage if you were town, some cus words maybe "Towns being fvcking stupid right now". I've picked up on this tell from you in a couple other games. 
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@Lunatic
Aside from your totally unnecessary bringing of Down's Syndrome into a game comment, I was not stupid to CC cop, I'd be an absolute idiot to not CC there and later claim, it looks fake af.
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lynching Earth doesn't gain us any information.
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It gains us his role and character, which doesn't gain us anything unless others have claimed and we have a lot of ways to play the night phase out.

At the moment one of the cops is dying and nothing positive will happen if Earth really is miller, which is what I read at the moment.
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Bandwagon Coal, leave him L-1 and the pressure can begin to benefit town instead of hurting only, which so far I believe it has.
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@RationalMadman
Aside from your totally unnecessary bringing of Down's Syndrome into a game comment, I was not stupid to CC cop, I'd be an absolute idiot to not CC there and later claim, it looks fake af.
It's more of an r/whoosh moment that you took the claim that seriously. How often do you see day cops in the game with results on a person they were just telling everyone to lynch? Why am I trying to explain this to you?

Regardless of you missing FT's point, there is value in restraining claiming even if it was a serious claim. I have seen Raisor withold CC'ing mafia once in a game and he was able to sus out the other scum by judging interactions, and didn't end up revealing he was the role til lylo. Claiming now gives mafia a chance to tamper results, block you, kill you, basically render you useless the rest of the game.

lynching Earth doesn't gain us any information.
We should be lynching Earth because he is scum, not for information. What information are you looking for specifically?


It gains us his role and character, which doesn't gain us anything unless others have claimed and we have a lot of ways to play the night phase out. At the moment one of the cops is dying and nothing positive will happen if Earth really is miller, which is what I read at the moment.
If earth was really the miller don't you find it odd he didn't SOP claim it? Earth may not have a ton of experience, but he's played in a few games. Enough to know that players here generally consider it meta to claim. You don't find it fishy that he waits to claim it after a "guilty" is found on him?
RationalMadman
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If you leave Coal alive, I promise I will not investigate him, There are 2 cops and one of them  (the day cop) can 'shoot' his power at a phase of the game immune to framing and lawyering if I understand the mechanics correctly.

This means my limitation is that there is almost definitely a lawyer at play and I will not let them lawyer or redirect or anything with Coal and me.

It's up to you what you do, I will not investigate him, he's scum in my eyes but I will investigate someone I predict wouldn't kill me if they were scum so that if I am alive my result means something.

I am publicly stating this as I am not impressed at all with where the game is heading, we have a series of cowardly, meek townies vs a Mafia that is totally and utterly unpressured as is. This is suboptimal in all ways. I am probably dying in the night phase and nothing good will come of any of it.