Anime Waifus Mafia DP2

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drafterman
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@whiteflame
Big is fairly uncommon, I don't believe the redirect was don't expecting it to be a kill, rather an investigative role of some sort, in which case it makes perfect sense to redirect from a maf to a townie. He's town, so he investigates innocent. He's non visiting. He's not likely to be directly targeted by anyone. So putting cops, trackers, and watchers on croc is ideal for maf. He's the perfect dumping ground.
drafterman
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Vig*
whiteflame
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@drafterman
Alright, so now we're back to assuming the motivations. Let's do that.

If he's town and he redirected, then he was suspicious of Pie and sought to redirect him. In terms of targets, he probably had no clue whether anyone else was town or mafia. His choices were:

1) to blindly select someone from the rest of the group, hope they were mafia, and target to them, or
2) to pick the known Hated townie, who was unlikely to be of much use the rest of the game and may become a policy elimination later

If he's mafia, then he believed that Pie was town, redirected him to Croc (the known townie) with the aim of showing up innocent. That's possible, and if that happened then clearly the fact that the redirect was reported to Pie gave away the game. 

Fine. Both seem like plausible options to me. Why are you putting more stake in the latter? Honestly, if this was anyone else, I would probably on the same page as you, but given that this is WP, I don't see much reason to buy the latter framing over the former. The only way I buy that is if he both has a scum partner who both told him to do this and told him to reveal that he was the one doing the redirecting. The former move makes sense to me, but the latter doesn't.
drafterman
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@whiteflame
If he was town and was suspicious of Pie, he should have redirected pie onto himself.
That1User
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If he was town and was suspicious of Pie, he should have redirected pie onto himself.
Holy Hell you're right
VTL WaterPhoenix
whiteflame
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@drafterman
WP definitely wouldn't have either thought to are wanted to do that. I think your perspective is about what he SHOULD have done rather than what he WOULD have done. The latter is more important in our interpretation. WP read what was said in the last round about Croc, saw an easy target that may not have been missed if it was gone, and redirected to it. He wouldn't have thought to have Pie target him, and would absolutely have wanted to preserve himself if he had thought of it, in anticipation of the NK. He may just also have believed he had more utility beyond the first NP.

So, I'll clarify my question: why do you think WP would not behave this way if he was town, and what makes you suspect that his scum partner would encourage him to reveal his role if he was scum?
Speedrace
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@That1User
Holy Hell you're right
VTL WaterPhoenix
lol Water not doing the optimal play does not equal Water being scum
drafterman
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@whiteflame
I don't see town redirecting someone to croc. I do see scum redirect someone to croc.
That1User
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@Speedrace
lol Water not doing the optimal play does not equal Water being scum
It doesn't necessarily but it does give pretty good evidence to Drafter's Water is scum theory
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@Speedrace
lol Water not doing the optimal play does not equal Water being scum
Who do you think is scum given the evidence we have?
whiteflame
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@drafterman
Then please explain why the scenario I've described is wrong. By your argument, you could see no scenario where WP would have seen Pie as scum and redirected to the only person he knew did not have a power role. I'm not saying it was the right decision, but if we believe you, then there can be no world in which WP believed that he was making the right choice. Why do you disbelieve that so strongly?
drafterman
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Water has been playing long enough that we can stop with the "He's not scum, he's just stupid!" Excuses.
Speedrace
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@That1User
It doesn't necessarily but it does give pretty good evidence to Drafter's Water is scum theory
Nope, because it assumes that WP would do the optimal play and that isn't true

Who do you think is scum given the evidence we have?
Scum is among drafter, you, warren, and Ragnar. Possibly Chris, whiteflame, or Danielle as well
whiteflame
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@drafterman
For that matter, and I'll point this out again, if he is scum, that would mean that his scum partner both encouraged him to do this redirect and encouraged him to reveal himself as the person doing the redirection afterward. I understand the first, but I still can't fathom why he'd take the second step as scum, especially when it removes other possible options for roles that could have caused this outcome and implicates WP directly without reason.
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@whiteflame
Excluding all possibilities that someone is town in order to treat them as scum is not a reasonable standard and not one that I go by. If it's 50.1% that someone is scum and 49.9% that they're town, you lynch them.
drafterman
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Hell, if it's more than 33% scum and you have nothing better, lynch them.
Speedrace
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Water has been playing long enough that we can stop with the "He's not scum, he's just stupid!" Excuses.
1. No one is calling him stupid
2. Assuming everyone plays well is literally how we lose. You'd never apply this logic to Supa and I'm pretty sure he's been playing for longer (sorry Supa)
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@Speedrace
I literally applied it just last game. I assumed he was scum rather than being dumb.
whiteflame
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@drafterman
@That1User
It seems like the only reason you're favoring this lynch is because it would be suboptimal play for a townie Redirector. Fine. Let's just throw out what we already thought we knew about WP and treat him as a blank slate with substantial experience. If he is scum, he's also making suboptimal play. He chose the right target for redirection, sure, but he followed it up by outing himself as the one who did it. How is that an optimal choice? Whether he's town or scum, his play is suboptimal. I don't see how one is more likely than the other with your logic.
Speedrace
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@drafterman
I literally applied it just last game. I assumed he was scum rather than being dumb.
And I capitalized on that and won. So clearly that logic is not infallible
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@Speedrace
You and whiteflame keep looking for infallible strategies. They don't exist.
Speedrace
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@drafterman
You and whiteflame keep looking for infallible strategies. They don't exist.
So the better alternative is to use strategies that have yet to work?
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@Speedrace
In any game the only reasonable expectation is that people play to their wincon in an optimal matter.
That1User
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@drafterman
@Speedrace
I townread both of you, drafter for your aggressiveness and Speed for your defense of WP, really seems like town vs. town differing on lynching philosphies and mafia is profiting from this division to avoid a lynch among them and coast by. Who are both of you willing to lynch?
drafterman
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@That1User
Water or speed
Speedrace
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@drafterman
In any game the only reasonable expectation is that people play to their wincon in an optimal matter.
lol this is just blatantly false

Elminster, Supa, Water, Greyparrot, and most noobs are clear evidence of the opposite

Even some experienced players are evidence of that
Speedrace
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@That1User
Either you or drafter but drafter more since you claimed
That1User
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@drafterman
Water or speed
Speed isn't going to vote Water or Speed, looking for a third option here
That1User
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@Speedrace
Either you or drafter but drafter more since you claimed
Neither me or drafter will agree to this, what's your third option?
whiteflame
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@drafterman
Believe it or not, I'd much rather rally behind a lynch this DP than fail to do so, and if I have any good reason to favor your story of a scum who revealed that they had a tricky role for no conceivable reason, then I'd vote here and now. Whether fortunately or unfortunately, I can't find any greater reason to believe your story than the one WP is telling. Maybe I am leaning on my prior understanding of WP's behavior, but honestly, it's the only way I've even seen the break the tie. Whether he is town or scum, his play has been suboptimal.