Paranoia Mafia - Day 2

Author: drafterman

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Elminster
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@Vader
you are probably paranoid. Literally has paranoid in the game title 
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@Elminster
Maybe but if Danielle is scum I don't think we should rule out me not being paranoid. We also shouldn't rule out Drafter trying to make us paranoid by adding paranoia in the title
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@ILikePie5
Uh I did speed np
Elminster
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@Crocodile
I buy this
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@Elminster
cool
whiteflame
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It looks like our suspicions of That1User are bearing out. The pure vanilla claim sounded sus from the start, though clearly, vanilla is an option for this game. I definitely do not buy that there are 4 of them, though, and we still have 3, all of whom claim to be pure vanilla. Still, I trust SupaDudz's read on That1, so that sets him above the rest in terms of priority.

I don't know what to make of this situation with Danielle and Greyparrot. I wasn't familiar with the Hot Potato role to begin with, though it appears to win with town, so if Danielle verifies, then Greyparrot would definitely be town. Unclear why he decided to go with mason early on, or why Lunatic claimed to be able to speak with him if he survived the NP (which may have been the reason that scum eliminated him). Also, and maybe I'm just not in the know about how kills are being reported, but clearly Lunatic had a more complex role than just pure vanilla. 

At the same time, we don't know what Danielle will do. Assuming she confirms this, her PGO claim will have been proven false, which makes her look pretty scummy. Not sure how she can confirm it, but if she doesn't, it means one of them is lying. I'd still favor Greyparrot in that, if only because the claim he's making is pretty absurdly specific and easily disprovable.
Elminster
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@whiteflame
you said you were going to claim, claim pls
Elminster
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@whiteflame
actually don't 
That1User
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@Vader
Even from behavioral analysis, That1 was very eager to jump on lynches for "pressure," which was the same logic he pushed in Civil War as scum. He was doing the same thing, but to a lesser degree and more subtly when the DP was starting to jump. Notice he went from me, to you, to whiteflame. He was trying to get a lynch off. Even if I am paranoid, I'm still willing to That1 off of behavior alone
This is a poor behavior analysis, I went after Speed to test Whiteflame's vanilla theory and unvoted after pleading to be vanilla, his confession was geniune to me and I believed him, unvoting at L-1 to prevent Speed's lynch. If I was scum I had motivation to keep the L-1 vote and urge someone else to hammer, but I unvoted to prevent a potential mislynch. I don't think I went after you Supa, you had a lot of pressure on you and I felt it unnecessary to vote you, I joined the ILikePie vote confirming he is popular, and confirming with draftermod the 6/6 counted. I voted Whiteflame when Croc was being voted, both didn't claim at that point, with Croc claiming later and Whiteflame refusing to claim until DP2. I found this refusal reasonable so I unvoted and VTNL, DP1 ending in VTNL. 

The only place I was trying to get a lynch was with Speed, to see if there really were multiple vanillas, so many others went for Speed that he was L-1, and I unvoted after his plea, preventing his lynching. I got a lynch off of Speed by unvoting.
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@whiteflame
It looks like our suspicions of That1User are bearing out. The pure vanilla claim sounded sus from the start, though clearly, vanilla is an option for this game. I definitely do not buy that there are 4 of them, though, and we still have 3, all of whom claim to be pure vanilla. Still, I trust SupaDudz's read on That1, so that sets him above the rest in terms of priority.
You are way too observant to buy Supa's poor analysis of me, either you are lost or you have an active interest in disparaging me, why do you trust his read? The "definately" is concerning here. I entertained the idea that it's unlikely that there is multiple vanillas (even wanting to test your theory),  but it's not definite,  potentially there is 4 vanilla, especially in Paranoia mafia, why would anything be definite? You don't think there's a potential for 4 vanillas as a distraction from the mafia?
That1User
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@whiteflame
It looks like our suspicions of That1User are bearing out. The pure vanilla claim sounded sus from the start, though clearly, vanilla is an option for this game. I definitely do not buy that there are 4 of them, though, and we still have 3, all of whom claim to be pure vanilla. Still, I trust SupaDudz's read on That1, so that sets him above the rest in terms of priority.
Why are you so certain in a game of unknowns? Certain of Supa's reads, certain about the number of vanillas, failing to entertain that you are potentially wrong.
That1User
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@Danielle
Explain yourself
Elminster
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Now that I have some time , I can type a bit

Town pile

Whiteflame
Croc
Sup
Pie


Null

Speed - town lean 
User - to lean 
Grayparrot -

Scum

Danielle



-----------

The luna kill was the obvious kill. He was largely the most town read person off behavior and role. We also stated that the Mason was going to visit him so they can communicate during the np. This kill likely happened because of how townread he was + he was going to be confirmed. Now think hard about this. Why would a gray parrot mafia kill him. Mafia killed him (very likely because they believed the gp claim) and to stop confirmation. This really makes me go null on parrot. Almost full town 

I'm still forced to think pie is town just because I don't think a popular mafia is in the game. I may revisit this later

Whiteflame is town just pure behavior wise. I have a hard time reading him sometimes. But he is bleeding noob town (no offense)

Croc I also buy as town. Specifically because a tp+2 mafia set up makes sense with 10 players.  Croc targeted speed

Imo opinion the tp would likely be one of the vanilla's. Me speed or user. User behavioral wise fits this role. Crocs visit clears speed unless speed says he was converted which he likely would have already said if he was. If I was tp, I would immediately town side for poe. Anyone who has played with me before knows this is true. I poe lynch


That being said user if you are tp, you really need to come clean. We have a way to convert you and town confirm you in the process. 

That leaves danielle the entire danielle gp cluster fuck. If gp visited danielle as mason, I believe he would be dead (if she was scum) so go saying he's hot potato would explain why he's alive. 

The question is whether I think gp is doing typical gp stuff which makes no sense a lot of the time. And he fake claimed for some weird reason. This really bothers me though because he is talking as if he knows Danielle has some role flavor. Meaning they had to have a way to talk about it. He was saying "wait for her to explain blah blah". This means hes lying about his role and he's still mason and trying to hide that. In which case my poe is just wrong entirely or they are both scum 

We need pressure on them 2 and we really need the tp to out. If tp outs (please fucking out). It will confirm the tp and croc and we have a really solid poe pile 


















Elminster
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O and supa. I just buy there being a cop in this game. May revisit this later but I was near 100 percent flavor cop would be in before the game started so this hits my bias hard 
whiteflame
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@That1User
Nothing is "definite" in this, you are correct. Perhaps I should rephrase. I initially found your claim dubious, I have a strong town read on Supa, and I think his cop claim makes sense. I don't buy the behavioral analysis, that wasn't the basis for my post. There's always a reason to believe I'm wrong, but if anything, you're actually doing more to give me a behavioral reason to see you as sus now. You're not contradicting the view that Supa is the cop, but instead targeting his behavioral analysis. I don't think that's the most important consideration here, and I think it's odd that you've chosen to focus in on that. Right now, the only real concern I have regarding whether you are mafia is whether Supa is a paranoid cop rather than just a normal one. That's where my uncertainty lies. So, yes, it's not definite, but you seem awfully defensive against my use of a single word.
Elminster
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@That1User
Are you third party. Please out if you are. We can convert you instead of lynch you and you will likely by the dp lynch with a guilty. It's no reason not to out at this point if you are 
That1User
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@Elminster
Are you third party. Please out if you are. We can convert you instead of lynch you and you will likely by the dp lynch with a guilty. It's no reason not to out at this point if you are 
I'm vanilla, I win with town, the only way I appear guilty in lynching is if I'm miller. The only way I am tp is if there's a tp who appears as vanilla town in PM.
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@whiteflame
You're not contradicting the view that Supa is the cop, but instead targeting his behavioral analysis. I don't think that's the most important consideration here, and I think it's odd that you've chosen to focus in on that.
I already said Supa must be paranoid/insane cop in post #38 , suprirsed you overlooked that,  I believe he's cop so I have no need to dispute Supa's claim any further, which leaves only his behavior analysis

 So, yes, it's not definite, but you seem awfully defensive against my use of a single word.
I have every right to be defensive over "definitely", nothing is definite in this game, your certainty indicated you know more than town  
Elminster
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@That1User
Wait what the fuck 
Elminster
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@That1User
Can you clarify what you mean by that.  There are conditions to your results 
whiteflame
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@That1User
I already said Supa must be paranoid/insane cop in post #38 , suprirsed you overlooked that,  I believe he's cop so I have no need to dispute Supa's claim any further, which leaves only his behavior analysis
I don't see any reasoning for why you believe he's a paranoid or insane cop, just that you think he "must be" for some unknown reason. For all your talk about my certainty, you seem awfully certain of what's going on with SupaDudz. Maybe it's because you are honestly vanilla town, but maybe not.

I have every right to be defensive over "definitely", nothing is definite in this game, your certainty indicated you know more than town  
Certainly wish I knew more than I do. That would make things a whole lot easier. I'm not one for subtlety (I think Elminster knows that all too well based on his having town read me), so if I did know something substantial, I wouldn't be hiding it behind my use of the word "definitely". Seems like a pretty ridiculous way for me to give myself away.
That1User
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@Elminster
Can you clarify what you mean by that.  There are conditions to your results 
What? Miller appears to be vanilla town in PM but results guilty in vanilla cop reports, so either I am miller and Supa is vanilla cop or I am vanilla town and Supa is paranoid/insane cop

The tp appearing as a vanilla is very slight possibility, I never heard of this happening but it's technically possible, I will have to go in depth in the roles spreadsheet to confirm if this is a thing or not.
Elminster
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@That1User
That's not at all how miller works. Unless I'm off in lala land. I've never in my life played a mafia game where miller works that way. 

Is that a dart thing that I'm not aware of. 

Elminster
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This is such noob town. 

This can happen as tp. I def don't by user as scum. The way that was typed was just so wrong and so innocent there is no mafia would come up with that bad of a reason for being coped guilty. 

Elminster
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Behavioral town reads 

WF
User 

Elminster
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I also buy croc. 

This is really really really making me want to lynch danielle or gp

Elminster
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I'm buying croc off what I would consider balanced.  Not behavior. 


The 2 people I prob won't lynch are wf and user. Unless there is something hell of compelling. 

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I saw That1’s response I’m gonna respond once I get on PC
Elminster
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I have to break my habbit of poe off of role claims. And go with my gut on behavior in this game. Wf and user and just pinging hella town. 
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@Elminster
Right now I wouldn’t be opposed to Danielle. I just don’t think GP is scum because he’s said that he would target PGO’s if he was a visiting role. This is definitely something GP would do, but I don’t get why he claimed Mason. Is that normal meta for that role? Haven’t played enough games with it