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Themeless Mafia 1 - Day Phase 1
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804
gonna read & reply in a flurry
is town bloc VTNLing or gunning for someone
is town bloc VTNLing or gunning for someone
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@coal
I'm willing to VTL Ragnar. He currently has two votes. I would like to see who, if anyone, is willing to be that third.
I would be as of page 12
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@Objectivity
To make it clear, I am against a no lynch DP1:Assuming a regular setup with 7 town 2 scum:"Day 2: 6 town, 2 scum. (25% chance of hitting scum)Day 3: 4 town, 2 scum. (33% chance of hitting scum)Now let's say town lynch D1:D2: 5 town, 2 scum. (28.5% chance of hitting scum)Day 3: 3 town, 2 scum. (40% chance of hitting scum)"
wait doesn't this mean
D1 lynch = D3 LYLO
D1 no lynch = D3 MYLO
doesn't that make D1 no-lynch preferable??
@ mod okay I see timezones now, the dp is already technically over but ima keep posting, and can we have a 12 hour extension?
if my math is right that makes Objectivity's botched math suggesting a lynch to be anti-town
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@Danielle
@Ragnar, is Oro posting in your other game?
He's MIA from that one too at the moment.
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@Lunatic
Makes 0 sense from a town perspective.
idk about ZERO sense. I can see the utility in playing securely / for the long game by not lynching your top scum read in favor of a secondary suspect because of the disparity in opportunity cost of mislynching between the two
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@Barney
please give me clif notes of last ten pages in case lucky shuts us down in five minutes
any urgent actions I need to take
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@Lucky
Added:05.18.20 04:08PM
Day 1 will have a deadline of 4 days. Day 2+ will have a deadline of 3 days. Extensions may be granted if players request and I see it fit.
Would you mind confirming that we have until Friday evening US time? AKA 23 hours 33 minutes from now.
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@Danielle
will not lynch coal or lunatic or max as of this point
I don't know why yet but I know objectivity was modkilled, otherwise I'd be down for objectivity lynch
Ragnar is no longer my main scum read
lack an image of Zaradi & Oro
you seem vibally scum, MINORLY, (no articulable reason) but at this point I'd defer to my townreads and wagon with whomever lunatic and coal say
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@Barney
oh lol
the dp does end tomorrow
it's in his second post on this topic
I'm dumb
in that case I'm gonna fucking eat and shower cuz I just got really bad news that fucked shit up yesterday so I need it
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@sui_generis
Pretty sure we have a day remaining. It's the next day phases that we have a little less time.
...
Biggest thing that happened was Objectivity was modkilled.
I outed myself for a power role, revealing that if the mafia has one it's roleblocker.
I'm stubbornly holding to my theory that you and Coal are a scum team.
Danielle and Coal are convinced is convinced my claim was a bluff.
Zaradi and Lunatic are at odds with each other.
Oro, Sui, and Airmax have basically been AFK.
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@Barney
juicy
I'm much more active as scum though
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@Barney
Would you mind confirming that we have until Friday evening US time? AKA 23 hours 33 minutes from now.
Yes. The first day was 24 hours longer than the rest will be by default to help ease people into the habit of checking the site.
Official Vote Count
Mod Note: Oromagi has been prodded. As per the rules, he has 12 hours to post before being replaced. However, I also made an error in that he had already gone 24 hours without posting when I went to bed and should have already been prodded. If players would like, I can go ahead and extend the day by 12 hours now.
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@Barney
I didn't say your role claim was a bluff. I said coupled with your behavior it doesn't exonerate you. You didn't even claim anything ;you implied a power role. You haven't suggested how to try to use it. You haven't even suggested keeping you alive so the mafia is forced to kill you. In other words, you aren't doing anything to work with town to scum hunt at all. You basically just gave up and it's been like pulling teeth to get reads from you. You're acting anti-town, so through POE you're just the best lynch candidate because I don't know if this anti-town behavior is normal from you.
I'm satisfied with Sui's posts for today (plz be more active next day phase) and would like to hear from Oro.
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@Barney
Why do you think Sui is scum but Oro isn't? I'm not familiar with Oro's style.
Why do you think having a power role necessitates a mafia role blocker as opposed to role cop?
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@Danielle
You haven't suggested how to try to use it. You haven't even suggested keeping you alive so the mafia is forced to kill you
There's no way to use it when I'm dead. If town honestly wants to kill a power role for the scum, by all means... But I did say "I'll be dead by morning. I suggest voting for someone who has actually made scum slips."
And now multiple people (you and Coal) asking digging questions which could expose any other power roles...
Why do you think Sui is scum but Oro isn't? I'm not familiar with Oro's style.
This is not Oro's style in any game I remember. Based on general behavior in many other games, I assume he'll be back and contribute. ... Not to mention, my vote for Sui was not based on inactivity (as much as that began to play into it).
I caught a couple slips from Sui earlier. I've maintained my vote since then, to keep some attention on him.
Why do you think having a power role necessitates a mafia role blocker as opposed to role cop?
There's a list in: #1. Obviously I lined up my role to their potential matching roles. You trying to dig this much, is suspect as hell.
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@Barney
And now multiple people (you and Coal) asking digging questions which could expose any other power roles...
The only question I asked you is why you are assuming the mafia has a role blocker instead of a role cop. At first glance it looked like all the town power roles (doctor, tracker, jailkeeper) could happen in either set-up. Now I see the only two roles that can't are cop and friendly neighbor. By saying you know the scum team has a role blocker, if you're town, you literally just told the mafia that you're the cop. So basically you gave info directly to mafia but not to town. None of this - or ANY of your behavior - is pro town. If you're going to tell the scum team what power role you have then why wouldn't you just out it directly?
You aren't doing a single thing to work with town and try and help yourself. For instance if we are using set-up #1 and you are the cop, that means there is a doctor who could protect you. Why not just ask the doctor to be on you for tonight? You aren't trying at all. If you're town you are nothing but a negative distraction and I am very comfortable lynching you at this point.
All - I am just getting online. Mild fire at the firm (metaphorical fire). Had me occupied all day and I anticipate that may continue for the next few days but shouldn't impact thereafter. Just letting you know.
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@Danielle
Admittedly whichever way Ragnar flips isn't gonna make me suspect Lunatic less now (sorry) but I just wanted to throw this out there in case I die during the night.
I agree.
Ragnar's memory certainly seems selective and he is self-evidently ignoring the vote counts. I understand that his (juvenile) antipathy towards me colors his reads of anything I do, as he has himself admitted, which is perhaps why he can't even keep track of who I have said I was willing to lynch, why, and when. That, after the nonsense he pulled last night, keeps him as a scum read. Also, he says we should be treating him like he's dead. Why, because he knows there's not a doctor? Did he maybe not think about that when claiming what he did? But the fact that he says that there is nothing that can save him implies that he knows that there's not a doctor in the game; just like he knew the setup based on the knowledge of his scum-mate's role.
Ragnar is claiming what he is claiming, which means either he has that role or not. As town, if he has the role TUF thinks he has, then allowing himself to get to the point that he did was incredibly anti-town. I can't tell right now whether TUF actually thinks Ragnar is holding the hand he's holding, or if TUF is going to be the person who "confirms" Ragnar tomorrow with the miraculous revelation of results. So what I do not understand now, just as I did not understand last night, is why town Ragnar allows himself to get to L-1 (even if there was no real risk of a lynch, though I note that I was willing to VTL him for death and I am still not convinced I was wrong).
The only world where Ragnar is town is where he, distracted with more important life things, is unable to post simply because he just doesn't have the time. That's why I was considering the possibility that he and Max might be masons because I already town-read Max and that would explain why, in an alternative world, town-mason Ragnar was allowed to get to this point by his scum buddy.
I thought Zaradi may have been suggesting that because I town read him last night that I should be understanding that Ragnar and Zaradi are the masons. But Zaradi said he was willing to hammer Ragnar at the end of the DP. On the other hand, Zaradi also said that the only world where he would hammer Ragnar is if we were at the tail-end of the DP for results. Or maybe Zaradi was just saying that so I would keep town-reading him and he was worried that if he defended Ragnar I would go after him. I don't know if I would, but if I was a mason that's not how I would have played it. I would have acknowledged the obvious -- that Ragnar's behavior was scum-leaning if not indicative -- while trying to generate other, better leads without exposing myself to potentially being exposed as having the power role. Even still, the only thing that got me to get my vote off Ragnar last night was the possibility that Ragnar and Zaradi are masons; though I am still really skeptical of it because I am seeing a pro-town intention from Zaradi's actions that is in no way consistent with him being a mason. But perhaps I'm wrong. I am willing to let that develop for the time being while we pursue other things. Zaradi's measured reaction last night is another reason I am not VTLing Ragnar at this exact moment.
If Ragnar and Zaradi are both town, though, then I think I have to go back and look at TUF.
If Ragnar is scum then TUF may also be scum. Or he may not. TUF's reaction last night is hard for me to sort through. Just because Ragnar may have sold a bill of goods doesn't mean that at least one townie won't buy it. That may well have been what happened with TUF.
Again, actions speak louder than words in this game. You go a DP acting like that and then bait the town into believing you're actually useful despite having been the most anti-town player in the game for 500+ posts in the DP; begs the question of why you weren't trying to ensure you actually got the chance to contribute meaningfully. If Ragnar had been playing like the role he claimed to have this DP, he would have never been the target. Sui or Oro would have, at the very least. Or maybe TUF, because Zaradi's wagon on TUF may well have defined the DP.
I also still town-read Danielle. The fact that Ragnar doesn't town-read Danielle, or anyone who has even suggested the potential that Ragnar is scum despite the fact that Ragnar's actions are by far and above the most scummy of anyone's in this game so far, and he has done less than nothing to help himself, and as "town" allows himself to get to the point hew got yesterday where what "saved" him was his "claiming" a "power role", continues to suggest that he is not town.
I may revisit this right now. It's a bit convoluted. I've had a long day.
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@Lunatic
Do you agree that if Ragnar is town, then Airmax must also be town?
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@coal
Do you agree that if Ragnar is town, then Airmax must also be town?
If this is true, it's all the more reason to lynch Ragnar for info.
Ragnar says he knows the mafia has a role blocker. The only way he could know that is if he is soft claiming cop, because that is the only role besides mason for which there could be a mafia role blocker but not role cop. If he is soft claiming cop, then he would know there is a doctor in the game. But he says nothing can save him (not a doctor? not a mason?) and isn't really trying. He isn't asking to be protected during the night. He isn't asking for the chance to investigate and provide results or allow to be recruited/recruit someone else to confirm him. He's just sort of giving up, not playing and blaming that on me not tagging him (?) despite coal asking him for reads multiple times and not looking to strategize or scum hunt. None of this is pro town behavior.
If there is a mason (confirming Ragnar as the other) they should speak up to confirm themselves, Ragnar and avoid us mislynching today. Otherwise I'ma vote Ragnar based on anti-town behavior. I get townish vibes from coal, Zaradi and Sui. I'm neutral on Oro and Airmax. And behaviorally only Lunatic would be sus after Ragnar. So right now I think the scum team is most likely between Ragnar + Lunatic, Ragnar + Oro, or Lunatic and someone else - maybe Oro. It's unfortunate that Oro's read largely comes down to PoE but oh well.
It is a miracle I'm town reading you since you are not playing to your #1 town meta which is tunneling me.
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@Danielle
If you're town, mafia should thank you for ensuring they did not miss anything.
Get this: I'm not going to encourage the other person to out themselves. I can't imagine town so obsessed with wanting to throw away all advantage of anonymity, but I also can't imagine Mafia being so open about it.
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@coal
Also, he says we should be treating him like he's dead. Why, because he knows there's not a doctor? Did he maybe not think about that when claiming what he did? But the fact that he says that there is nothing that can save him implies that he knows that there's not a doctor in the game; just like he knew the setup based on the knowledge of his scum-mate's role.
I don't think this is necessarily fair. It's reasonable to think that when you claim a TPR that your likelihood of dying goes up significantly. Sure assuming Ragnar is a cop there's the possibility that a doctor is in the game, but a) that might also not be the case, in which case there's a very-close-to-zero percent chance that he lives through the night, and b) even if we assume that a doctor does exist, it also relies on the doctor targeting him to protect which, given his mixed reviews by people alive currently, might not necessarily be a given? Two people openly don't believe him or his claim.