Captain America: Civil War Mafia - DP1

Author: Speedrace

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SirAnonymous
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@Singularity
Why wait to lynch scum on DP3 when it can be done dp1? 
Because we can't be certain that he's scum. We can be certain by simply waiting.
Ask anybody why they would town read him, and you'll just get silence
Except for the extremely minor fact that DD just did a 3-4 paragraph analysis explaining why he town reads Grey and that drafter just explained why he thinks scumreading Grey based on balance is highly flawed, yes, you get silence - but only so long as you ignore the noise.
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@drafterman
That leaves Pie and Sir and Pie is just first on the list. 

Well I have a pretty strong town read on siranon right now but still would prefer to lynch Bullish over pie. Tell ya what, how about you and I try to convince the rest of town to choose between pie and bullish and agree to vote for whichever of those two lynches seems more likely to go through?
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@Singularity
I have played in more games than you.

This is incredibly unlikely and also incredibly irrelevant.
Bullish
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@SirAnonymous
You're not used to Grey's meta, are you? He always claims in his first few posts. I don't see anything scummy about him claiming. Also, how is it a scummy claim? Because you took a guess at the theme and he claimed a role that will be confirmed at the start of DP3?
It's the the fact that she claimed, it's WHAT she claimed. I too by far the most reasonable guess of the theme at the time, that is bad = scum, so yes that's exactly why I said it was a scummy claim and the fact you still don't understand that means you had inside info before hand.

Singularity
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@SirAnonymous
Then sheep us, if you town read us. There is not a single reason that GP should be in anyone's town pile even if you don't believe me and supa. 
Bullish
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@Discipulus_Didicit

The whole point is that this is a dumb thing to say. It is litterally saying that GP - as scum - claiming his real character under no pressure whatsoever is a reasonable expectation. Just handing that to town on a silver platter. Well you are wrong, that isn't a reasonable expectation. It is an unreasonable one and I am more inclined to think that this is you as scum trying to convince town that GP somehow scum slipped than I am to think that this is you as town making such a blatant error in judgement.
You just ignored my whole rationale to not go past layer 1 WIFOM DP1. Grey claimed a scummy char, I don't care why or what was going through her head, all I care is that she was scummy. Your line of thinking opens up the possibly for scum to blatantly do scummy things and get away with it because you apply WIFOM too early.
Singularity
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@Discipulus_Didicit
GP claims his first post every game. Even as scum he has to stick with that or it will be an obvious scum tell. Claiming early does not get him town cred
SirAnonymous
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@Bullish
Because prior to speed revealing there is no thematic split it would have been by far the most reasonable assumption for Zemo to be mafia/TP.

Which is totally unreasonable hence why I FOS you.
<br>
Protagonists vs. antagonists is only a reasonable possibility if you exclude every other possibility. For instance, a Cap vs. Iron Man split would be reasonable. Also, we knew that Speed didn't do a theme last time, so there was no reason to assume that there would be a theme at all. Your logic only makes sense if you exclude every other possibility, even though you have no reason to exclude them.
And idk if you've been explain this before but in a game of mafia everybody is GUILTY until proven innocent, and someone who's even 40% likely to be scum is more likely than average and thus is a good lynch target. So there would have been no reason for you to defend him unless you had inside knowledge.
Except for the simple reason that he will confirm himself as either town or scum within two DPs, so it is more reasonable to just wait until those odds increase to 90-100% and search for other likely scum in the meantime.
I just opened up DP1 of that game, speed says right in the OP that there are no villains, there is no theme split, and all the players are heroes.
Which didn't stop players from assuming that there would be a theme anyway.
He doesn't say that in the OP of this game. So in fact the absence of immediate clarification would have been evidence to the theory that there IS a thematic split this game.
Except that he is an inexperienced mod who is prone to making that kind of mistakes.

All of your logic here relies on throwing out every other possibility with no reason to do so.
SirAnonymous
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@Bullish
It's the the fact that she claimed, it's WHAT she claimed. I too by far the most reasonable guess of the theme at the time, that is bad = scum, so yes that's exactly why I said it was a scummy claim and the fact you still don't understand that means you had inside info before hand.
Or it just means I'm open to other possibilities and don't immediately jump to conclusions based on nothing.

Singularity
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@SirAnonymous
First of all, it is classic scum tactic to say they will be revealed in a few days so we can track up mislynches waiting for it to happen. Also even on DP3, we still can't be sure because he already set up some bullshit reason for surviving,  by saying no ly a black man can save him or something
SirAnonymous
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@Singularity
Then sheep us, if you town read us.
I don't sheep people. It's an objectively bad way to play the game. The only exception to that is if I know for an absolute fact that they are town and I also know that they are good at reading people (for instance, I might sheep Pie if he was town-confirmed because he tends to be accurate in his reads). Even then, I would only sheep if I had no time to analyze the situation for myself.

Singularity
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When the DP ends I will co sider switching my vote if that is the o ly way to secure a lynch, but I would o ly switch my vote to somebody not on the GP wagon. 
Singularity
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Thinking of lynching you just for saying pie has good reads
Discipulus_Didicit
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@Singularity
Even if my reason ing is imperfect it does not change that he is scum. 

Please review post 220.

How many mafia games have you played anyway? If the answer is anything other than "So many that I stopped counting years ago" then no, you have not 'played a lot more games' than me.

But like I said the number of games one has played is irrelevant. What is relevant is that your flawed balance analysis has GP as less than 30% chance of being scum and your tunneling of him is detrimental to town because it prevents us from taking this time to look for the real scum or, in the unlikely scenario that GP is scum, looking for his partners.
Bullish
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@SirAnonymous
All of your logic here relies on throwing out every other possibility with no reason to do so.

Or it just means I'm open to other possibilities and don't immediately jump to conclusions based on nothing.
That's the wrong play because you're implying that all possibilities are equally likely, when there is 1 obvious possibility that is far more likely than all the other possibilities. As town is bad to be paralyzed by "all" manners of unlikely possibilities because it distracts you from the most likely possibility and hinders you from hunting scum. It's a common anti-town tactic to distract town by coming up with less likely possibilities and then claiming it's some how illogical to go with the most likely possibility.
Singularity
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Why would you town read him dude? It is far more than 30% likely. Take I to account me and supa are confirmed town and you know for a fact you are town, then even by your flawed logic he is still like 50% to be scum and that is enough to lynch off of. 
You town read him because town always does this when they catch scum early on. If they weren't the ones to unlock the puzzle they start overthinking shit. You don't even have a reason to town read him. You just think it is reasonable for the mod to hand out all these extra town deaths and there is nothing to be suspicious of

SirAnonymous
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@Singularity
 Also even on DP3, we still can't be sure because he already set up some bullshit reason for surviving,  by saying no ly a black man can save him or something
No, we can't be certain. However, I'd be willing to lynch him DP3 if he's still alive regardless. By that point, the odds would highly favor that it was a scum gambit.
Thinking of lynching you just for saying pie has good reads
In the Office mafia, he scum read all three mafia players in DP1 and was the only player to scum read Speed, who went on to survive seven DPs to win the game. In a QF, he was the only player to catch Lunatic's scumslips. He does have a history of accurate reads, even seeing through some of the best DART mafia players.
drafterman
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Well I have a pretty strong town read on siranon right now but still would prefer to lynch Bullish over pie. Tell ya what, how about you and I try to convince the rest of town to choose between pie and bullish and agree to vote for whichever of those two lynches seems more likely to go through?
I can agree to this.

Pie - has pledged to be active, but I am skeptical. Inactive players are hard to read and are inherently anti-town regardless of affiliation. At the very least locking him into a claim would be beneficial, so we can factor that information into POE analysis later on without requiring him to be active at a crucial moment.

Bullish - Bullish acts in a chaotic matter even when town, which makes him slightly anti-town regardless of affiliation as well. However, when Town, he has been known to get his shit together and start providing good analysis. He at least is active and provides material that can be analyzed. I don't particularly see any behavior that makes me think scum on him.

Don't ask why, just lynch Pie.


Singularity
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@Discipulus_Didicit
You catch scum when you have them. You can find a partner next DP. Maybe red handed so we can repeat the way we caught him here, that is if you guys dont do to a watcher tracker or cop what you are doing to me and supa by being autistic about shit
SirAnonymous
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@Bullish
That's the wrong play because you're implying that all possibilities are equally likely, when there is 1 obvious possibility that is far more likely than all the other possibilities.
Cap vs. Iron Man was highly likely. No theme at all was highly likely. There was no one theme that was far more likely than all the others.

Discipulus_Didicit
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@Singularity
Why would you town read him dude? It is far more than 30% likely.

I said 'just based off of balance analysis it is less than 30%'. I am aware that other factors are in play.

Again, please review post 220.
Singularity
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Why do you town read GP? And if you don't town read him why are you not voting him? 
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@Bullish
@SirAnonymous
That's the wrong play because you're implying that all possibilities are equally likely, when there is 1 obvious possibility that is far more likely than all the other possibilities.
Cap vs. Iron Man was highly likely. No theme at all was highly likely. There was no one theme that was far more likely than all the others.

Okay you two that is enough fluffing the DP with general arguments about strategy. If it does not concern this game specifically then please take it to another thread so as to avoid filling this one with irrelevant nonsense.

In the meantime todays lynch lynch should be between bullish and pie (please see post 258) so let's shift the conversation to that topic, or you know... Litterally any topic that actually has something to do with this game specifically would be great.
Singularity
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The options are get confirmed scum DP1 or wait u till dp3 to get confirmed scum when drafter has already said we can o ly afford 2 mislynches. 

Discipulus_Didicit
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@Singularity
Why do you town read GP? And if you don't town read him why are you not voting him? 
<br>

Post 220 answers these questions. I have asked you twice to read it, let this be the third... Please read post 220.
SirAnonymous
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@Bullish
I started rereading the DP, and I just caught this post from Bullish.
Let's claim which side of Captain America: Minor Airport Skirmish you're on.

I am on the side of cap.
Now he's saying that it is dumb and scummy to have thought that the theme was anything other than protagonists vs. antagonists. This particular post was right after vtl'ing GP over claiming the antagonist. Why, then, did he ask people to claim whether their character was affiliated with Cap or Iron Man?

-->Bullish
Care to explain?
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I hate to use mod psych again on an inexperienced mod but grey is semi-confirmed, or else why would speed just come out and say "there's no theme split."
I hate to say it, but this probably means Bullish isn't scum.

VTL PIE
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@Singularity
You obviously have NOT been in a game where I played as scum.
Singularity
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Why bullish or pie? Also why entertain who you want to lynch if you are dismissive of everything I suggest?
Singularity
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@Discipulus_Didicit
I read the post numerous times. You gave no behavioral analysis