Captain America: Civil War Mafia - DP1

Author: Speedrace

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SirAnonymous
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@drafterman
In situations like this, where there is some anti-utility role, scum is usually smart enough to realize that they have to be on that lynch otherwise they look scummy by comparison.

Consider just last game with oro as Turn Coat. Scum would have preferred oro stay alive so they can convert him, but being conspicuously not on his lynch would have been suspicious, so they pushed for his lynch to look town sided.

This is also the exact same scenario. It is a better guarantee that scum is on Grey's wagon than it is that Grey is scum himself.
Even though I was on the GP wagon and am consequently suspicious, this makes sense to me.
drafterman
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@SirAnonymous
Grey has suggested his death isn't inevitable and that another role might be able to "save" him. Could be true, could be scum hedging his bets.

Meta-wise it would be completely out of character for Grey -  as scum - to claim this role AND allow for his own lynch.
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Looking at just the town/mafia numbers, we have exactly 2 mislynches. This is going to be a tight game and we to be spot on here.
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@Singularity
It doesn't matter his suicide day. He is lying g. There would not be a suicide and lovers in the same game with the game being this small.

Why not?
Bullish
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@Speedrace
THERE IS NO THEME SPLIT

My bad
the fuck? ok then

UNVOTE
Discipulus_Didicit
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@drafterman
There is definitely scum on Grey's wagon.

Agree. What posts specifically make you think it is more likely to be pie than Bullish? I am pretty null on pie at the moment though I have not yet done my second re-read.
Bullish
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I hate to use mod psych again on an inexperienced mod but grey is semi-confirmed, or else why would speed just come out and say "there's no theme split."

Bullish
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@drafterman
There is nothing saying the game can't, in fact, be [UNbalanced].
agree completely. The line of thinking supa and single went down is ridiculous.

It's possible they're doing some insane scum gambit, but for now I'm inclined to think they're town.

Bullish
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Scum would be more likely to know before hand that there is no thematic split, since they'll consist of a variety of characters with no justification as to why they're scum. I'll reread the DP with that in mind.
Discipulus_Didicit
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@Vader
@Singularity
Here is what singularity and supadudz are saying:

There is only one possible scenario here, that being that the game is balanced and that GP is scum due to the fact that a pair of town lovers cannot exist side-by-side with a town suicidal in a balanced game.

Here is what I am saying:

There are three possibilities.

1) The game is balanced and GP is scum (in other words Supa and singularity are correct).

2) GP, Supa, and singularity are all town but the game is still balanced due to some feature that we are not aware of (In other words town doesn't know everything about the game... by the way, isn't town not knowing everything about the game pretty much the whole point of this he in the first place? uninformed majority vs informed minority? Just saying).

3) The game is unbalanced (Like drafter said it is pretty stupid to discount this as a possibility considering how often people bitch about balance in the endgames).

Okay so already we should have people inviting GP just based off of the fact that if all the three possibilities above have equal likelihoods then GP has a 33% chance of being scum whereas simply sheeping my vote has a 46% chance of catching scum (see post one in the first link below). Think of it as comparing a medications effects to the effects of a placebo in medical trials. Sheeping DD is the placebo and lynching GP is the proposed medication. If lynching GP is less likely to hit scum than sheeping DD (as demonstrated above) then the proposed medication of 'lynch GP' has failed it's trial.

Still not enough? Okay, let me tell you all a story.

Once upon a time there was a game modded by speed called MCU Heroes mafia (second link below). Before starting this game Speedrace asked DD to look over his setup. DD did so and noticed that speed had included a vig and a mafia governor in the setup which meant that there was the possibility, that the game would end in a mafia win even with decent town play. Speed said "thanks for the advice DD, I will change the setup a bit. Can you look over this new proposal?" But DD was too busy to look over the new proposal so he just told speed "hey as long as there isn't a town vig and a mafia governor in the same game it is an improvement from before."

The moral of this story is that out of the three possibilities above possibility three (one of the ones that has GP as town) has some precedent for it while both other possibilities are completely unfounded, therefore if we go purely off of balance analysis to find scum (as opposed to using behavior analysis like fucking sane people would do) then there is a much less than 30% chance of GP being scum.

Still not enough? Still unreasonably convinced that GP must be scum? Okay let's say that he is somehow scum despite everything I just said. In the scenario where GP is mafia there are still two other mafia players in the game. What you should do is focus on trying to figure out who those players are and wait for GPs suicide timer to run out. Then if he doesn't off himself we can lunch him under the 'lynch all liars' policy.



Discipulus_Didicit
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we should have people inviting GP

Should say unvoting.

can lunch him under the 'lynch all liars' policy.

LYNCH! LYNCH GODDAMNIT!

Okay that is the last fucking straw. I am turning my autocorrect off. This bullshit has gone far enough.

Bullish
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Claimed
Greyparrot - Helmut Zemo - Suicidal
Supa - Steve Rogers - Lover with Bucky
Singularity - Bucky - Lover with Steve

Unclaimed
WaterPhoenix
SirAnonymous
Ragnar
Discipulus_Didicit
drafterman
ILikePie5 - "a role"
oromagi
Lunatic
warren42
Bullish - aligns with cap in the movie


SirAnonymous
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@Bullish
I hate to use mod psych again on an inexperienced mod but grey is semi-confirmed, or else why would speed just come out and say "there's no theme split."
<br>
Because he forgot to say it at the beginning of the DP. This is in no way mod confirmation. There were all sorts of possible themes other than just antagonists vs. protagonists.
SirAnonymous
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@Discipulus_Didicit
That's a good analysis.
Bullish
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VTL SirA

Why would you say this:

No, antagonist doesn't have to be scum.
???

This was before speed outed that there is no thematic split. Any sane person would have assumed that bad guys = scum, like the way it is in the vast majority of themed games where there is an obvious good vs evil split.
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VTL SirA
SirAnonymous
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@Bullish
To begin with, you need to bold your votes.
This was before speed outed that there is no thematic split. Any sane person would have assumed that bad guys = scum, like the way it is in the vast majority of themed games where there is an obvious good vs evil split.
No, there are any number of possibilities, such as Cap-aligned heroes vs. Iron Man-aligned heroes. In Speed's earlier game (The MCU Heroes game DD linked), all the characters were heroes.
Discipulus_Didicit
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@Bullish
Why would you say this:

No, antagonist doesn't have to be scum.
???

He had to say that because there were some people that were too thick headed to realize that on their own.

Oh wait, you are asking why he said it because you disagree that it was a reasonable thing to say? SMH. Come on man, you are better than this.
Bullish
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@SirAnonymous
No, there are any number of possibilities, such as Cap-aligned heroes vs. Iron Man-aligned heroes.
Ok and in this scenario where does that put Zemo? TP at BEST. always lynch TP.

And you had to think that these "other" thematic possibilities are VERY likely in order to just come out and defend Grey like that. There is no reason to believe that UNLESS you have inside knowledge before hand that bad guys could go town/good guys could be scum.

In Speed's earlier game (The MCU Heroes game DD linked), all the characters were heroes.
Yeah that's cause the word "heroes" is literally in the title of the game.
SirAnonymous
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@Bullish
Ok and in this scenario where does that put Zemo? TP at BEST. always lynch TP.
Firstly, that was a possibility. I didn't know whether or not it was correct. Secondly, this goes beyond thematic analysis into mind-reading the mod. No, he would not have to be third party. Thirdly, why would you even bring this up after Speed already clarified that there is no thematic split?
And you had to think that these "other" thematic possibilities are VERY likely in order to just come out and defend Grey like that.
Or I could just think that no one possibility was more likely than another, so there was no thematic basis to use to reach conclusions about Grey's character (which is what I thought).
Yeah that's cause the word "heroes" is literally in the title of the game.
There's still an interesting contrast between this game and that one. In DP1 of the MCU Heroes mafia, several players assumed that the villains would be scum, until Speed clarified that there were no villains and no thematic split. Sounds familiar, no?
Bullish
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@Discipulus_Didicit
I admit your FOS on me is some damn good anaylsis. But it's too good for your own good.

Like I said right there in my vote, town shouldn't over think if it can help it. Because what grey claimed was objectively scummy, and if you let scummers do scummy thinks and excuse it for "oh it's just retardation/WIFOM" then you're just letting scum get away with doing scummy things, which hinders actual scum hunting. I don't look past layer one WIFOM unless there is a compelling non-WIFOM reason to do so.
SirAnonymous
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Because what grey claimed was objectively scummy, and if you let scummers do scummy thinks and excuse it for "oh it's just retardation/WIFOM" then you're just letting scum get away with doing scummy things
You're not used to Grey's meta, are you? He always claims in his first few posts. I don't see anything scummy about him claiming. Also, how is it a scummy claim? Because you took a guess at the theme and he claimed a role that will be confirmed at the start of DP3?

drafterman
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@Discipulus_Didicit
I find Bull to be in an older Mafia mind set when it comes to how games are designed and how people play them. Based on his (town) behavior in South Park mafia and in this mind, I see him as being pretty consistent.

That leaves Pie and Sir and Pie is just first on the list. 
SirAnonymous
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Town Bullish comes in on post 61 and sees GP claimed a character that is an antagonist then votes for GP after thinking to himself "Yes, it makes sense that scum would claim their actual character under no pressure whatsoever and GP claimed an antagonist character so GP must be scum." This seems unlikely due to the fact that this line of thinking is retarded and Bullish is quite well known as a decent mafia player. Notice also how post 61 advocates for the DP to be as short as possible. Again, unlikely to come from someone known as a decent town player.
It doesn't look good for him, but it is consistent with his previous town play. Here's something he said in the South Park mafia.
Are  you defending drafterman? If so then you have employed a LOGICAL FALACY. Just because staring someone down is a lie tell, does not mean not having the balls to look me in the eye is NOT a lie tell.

From this I have determined that you and drafter are scum together. And the third scum on your team is Lunatic.
This was from Page 2 of DP1, and he was already sure he knew who the mafia was, but with even less logic than his read on GP this game.
Singularity
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@SirAnonymous
Why wait to lynch scum on DP3 when it can be done dp1? Also what is the point of exposing roles that provide I formation that points toward somebody being scum, if you ignore it. Also even if there is some very slim possibility that grey is town, it is such a long shot it is pointless to consider. There is absolutely no reason to town read greyparrot. Ask anybody why they would town read him, and you'll just get silence
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@Vader
@Singularity
My PM explicitly states supa as town. We can confirm each other.
So you're either both town or both scum. At the moment, I'm town reading the two of you because you seem to playing consistently with your regular play.

drafterman
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UVC
ILikePie5 - 1/7 - drafterman
GreyParrot - 3/7 - SupaDudz, Singularity, ILikePie5
SupaDudz - 1/7 - oromagi
Bullish - 2/7 - Discipulus_Didicit, GreyParrot
Sir - 1/7 - Bullish

Discipulus_Didicit
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@Bullish
Because what grey claimed was objectively scummy,

The whole point is that this is a dumb thing to say. It is litterally saying that GP - as scum - claiming his real character under no pressure whatsoever is a reasonable expectation. Just handing that to town on a silver platter. Well you are wrong, that isn't a reasonable expectation. It is an unreasonable one and I am more inclined to think that this is you as scum trying to convince town that GP somehow scum slipped than I am to think that this is you as town making such a blatant error in judgement.
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@SirAnonymous
Firstly, that was a possibility. I didn't know whether or not it was correct. Secondly, this goes beyond thematic analysis into mind-reading the mod. No, he would not have to be third party. Thirdly, why would you even bring this up after Speed already clarified that there is no thematic split?
There is a TP it's right in the OP. Because prior to speed revealing there is no thematic split it would have been by far the most reasonable assumption for Zemo to be mafia/TP.

And idk if you've been explain this before but in a game of mafia everybody is GUILTY until proven innocent, and someone who's even 40% likely to be scum is more likely than average and thus is a good lynch target. So there would have been no reason for you to defend him unless you had inside knowledge.

Or I could just think that no one possibility was more likely than another, so there was no thematic basis to use to reach conclusions about Grey's character (which is what I thought).
Which is totally unreasonable hence why I FOS you.

There's still an interesting contrast between this game and that one. In DP1 of the MCU Heroes mafia, several players assumed that the villains would be scum, until Speed clarified that there were no villains and no thematic split. Sounds familiar, no?
I just opened up DP1 of that game, speed says right in the OP that there are no villains, there is no theme split, and all the players are heroes. He doesn't say that in the OP of this game. So in fact the absence of immediate clarification would have been evidence to the theory that there IS a thematic split this game.
Singularity
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Why not?

I have played in more games than you. Just trust me on this. Doesn't matter though. Even if my reason ing is imperfect it does not change that he is scum.