Pokemon Mafia DP 3

Author: warren42

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Total: 317
#241
ILikePie5
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@Speedrace
So is Club stupid, or is he scum? Stop vacillating


DP2 I thought he was stupid town. This DP I think he’s scum. However, there’s no chance you’re gonna vote for him cause you’re underneath the impression 2 mafia killing roles have to exist, which is highly unlikely. There has to be a fake poisoner. Think of it this way. If there was a poisoner, a PD, and my mafia killing role, wouldn’t it heavily benefit town? Any loss to mafia ranks would be practically game over.
#242
Speedrace
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@ILikePie5
I’m not gonna confirm or deny. Doing so would help mafia.

I’ll bet all the money in the world you don’t know what role I am.
Contradictory statements. You're bomb and you know it, because if I'd said anything else you would've instantly denied it

Anyway VTL Mharman
#243
ILikePie5
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@Speedrace
You saying that doesn't make it true, plus WE KNOW THAT THERE IS A POISONER BECAUSE WYLTED WAS POISONED

Ignorant

Buddy a Fake Poisoner can also Fake Poison Wylted, Jesus Christ it’s not that hard. Why are you so adamant on lynching one of town’s best roles? Holy lord.
#244
Speedrace
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@ILikePie5
DP2 I thought he was stupid town. This DP I think he’s scum. However, there’s no chance you’re gonna vote for him cause you’re underneath the impression 2 mafia killing roles have to exist, which is highly unlikely. There has to be a fake poisoner. Think of it this way. If there was a poisoner, a PD, and my mafia killing role, wouldn’t it heavily benefit town? Any loss to mafia ranks would be practically game over.
I never said there has to be two killing roles dude

There has to be a fake poisoner. 
And therefore a poison doctor, AKA Club, AKA Club is town
#245
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@Speedrace
Contradictory statements. You're bomb and you know it, because if I'd said anything else you would've instantly denied it

Anyway VTL Mharman

Lordy, think before you speak. It was sarcasm. It meant I was never gonna say my role. Man people just don’t seem to get semantics and sarcasm on this site, smh.
#246
Speedrace
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@ILikePie5
Buddy a Fake Poisoner can also Fake Poison Wylted, Jesus Christ it’s not that hard. Why are you so adamant on lynching one of town’s best roles? Holy lord.
DUDE, when I say poisoner, I mean poisoner or fake poisoner, AKA we know that there is either a poisoner or a fake poisoner my dude


#247
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@Speedrace
I never said there has to be two killing roles dude

If you think a PD exists then a Poisoner has it exists since they balance out. A “fake poisoner” cannot have a PD since they don’t balance, comprende!

And therefore a poison doctor, AKA Club, AKA Club is town
Once again, a PD does not balance a fake poisoner.
#248
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@Speedrace
DUDE, when I say poisoner, I mean poisoner or fake poisoner, AKA we know that there is either a poisoner or a fake poisoner my dude

Buddy, PD can only exist with a Poisoner not with a fake poisoner. There’s no point of a role that can’t do anything lmao.
#249
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Posting thoughts in a second. Will have to log off soon.

#250
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If--and it's a big if--mafia gets two kills (which might fit with Disc being BP but not with there being no NK last night), then a bomb might make sense, I guess. 1-to-1 trades hurt mafia more than town, because mafia is smaller. In such a scenario, town would lose 1/9th of their number, whereas mafia loses 1/3rd of theirs.

Let's play this out, assuming the worst case scenario for town.

DP1: 9-3
---w/ a mislynch and two mafia kills =
DP2: 6-3
---w/ a mislynch and two mafia kills =
DP3: 3-3
---mafia wins

Now, contrast that with a bomb resulting in a mafia death.

DP1: 9-3
---w/ a mislynch and two mafia kills =
DP2: 6-3
---w/ a mislynch and bomb event =
DP3: 4-2
---w/ a mislynch and two mafia kills =
DP4: 1-2
---mafia wins

Only in this scenario could I see a bomb being balanced, esp. with two protective roles in the game. If mafia has two kills, which I doubt, then town would need the protective roles and the bomb. But even so, the second set-up is still questionably balanced. But we need to remember, that even with two killing roles, both of them might not be mafia. So, there are a lot of assumptions built into this analysis.


#251
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Correction:

Now, contrast that with a bomb resulting in a mafia death.

DP1: 9-3
---w/ a mislynch and two mafia kills =
DP2: 6-3
---w/ a mislynch and bomb event =
DP3: 3-2
---w/ a mislynch =
DP4: 2-2
---mafia wins
#252
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The chances, based on commonsense and balance analysis, that Pie is telling the truth are slim, and only make sense if (a) the poisoner is mafia and (b) mafia can use the poisoner concurrently with the NK. Now, Speed suggested that perhaps the poisoner was odd-night only. That would make mafia slightly less OP versus a town with a bomb, and would change the calculations to what I have below. Mafia could also have an NK plus an X-shot poisoner, which doesn't have the same sense of symmetricality to it...

DP1: 9-3
---w/ a mislynch and two mafia kills =
DP2: 6-3
---w/ a mislynch and bomb event =
DP3: 4-2
---w/ a mislynch and two mafia kills =
DP4: 1-2
---mafia wins
No matter what, conditions (a) and (b) strike me as unlikely, meaning that mafia probably doesn't have two killing roles, meaning a bomb would not be necessary for balance.
#253
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I'll place my vote tomorrow afternoon. I am logging off for tonight before my head actually explodes. This DP has just been confusing. 

May the odds be ever in our favor.
#254
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@ILikePie5
Once again, a PD does not balance a fake poisoner.
WARREN LITERALLY SAID WE GET A DAY POISON DOCTOR IF WE HAVE A POISONER WHO CAN ALSO FAKE


#255
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May the odds be ever in our favor.
This is Pokemon, not Hunger Games lol

I'm doing Mharman because I do not think that Mafia could possibly be as ignorant as Pie is being right now
#256
Speedrace
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@bsh1
 See above

#257
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@bsh1
 Also, noticed how Mharman jumps on bandwagons? Voted you as soon as you said you'd talked to Warren, voted for Pie, voted for Wylted for A HUGE leap in logic, once voted for Disc
#258
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@Speedrace
WARREN LITERALLY SAID WE GET A DAY POISON DOCTOR IF WE HAVE A POISONER WHO CAN ALSO FAKE
Warren did not say that. He said a PD exists if and only if a Poisoner that has the ability to kill exists. Now the poisoner can also have a fake poison ability we don’t know that theoretically. However, my premise lies on the fact mafia can’t kill 2 people, that would be hella OP and impossible. If they can this is some crazy modding.

#259
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I'm here.  Haven't caught up.  I'll update when I have.
#260
Mharman
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@ILikePie5
You just said that you think a fake poisoner is more likely in the game.
I thought about it more and updated my views as such.

#261
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@bsh1
A bomb doesn't balance well here. I think it's a fake claim.
#262
Mharman
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@Speedrace
I voted for Pie because I wanted a claim.

unvote
#263
Mharman
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So, you legitimately think that mafia would have poisoned one of their own on the off-chance that they'd get rescued. That would be an asinine gambit even by Wylted's standards. Your remark here reads like a desperate attempt to shove the lynch onto someone who is--rationally speaking--not likely mafia.
Mafia has a poisoner. We know that. Mafia probably guessed there was a poison doc based off the fact that they have a poisoner. It's not as big as a risk as you might think.

I can only interpret this as a deliberate misuse of terms. That is NOT and NEVER has been what "active" means in the context of mafia roles.
I get what "active" means now. I misinterpreted the meaning of "active".

What makes you think it's deliberate?

#264
ILikePie5
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@Mharman
Mafia has a poisoner. We know that. Mafia probably guessed there was a poison doc based off the fact that they have a poisoner. It's not as big as a risk as you might think.

You just flip flopped once again. Which is it? Do you believe that there is a poisoner or not?
#265
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@Mharman
Scratch what I said above, I misread. 

So you think there’s a poisoner giving Mafia 2 killing roles? That would be insane. If you believe this my claim of bomb makes even more sense. 
#266
Speedrace
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@ILikePie5
2 killing roles wouldn't be insane if you can only use one or the other way night
#267
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each night*
#268
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@ILikePie5
I'll give you that one. Your bomb claim does make a little more sense in that context.

Does anybody have a claims list? If not I'll update it.
#269
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@bsh1
@Mharman
You voted for him last period, at least briefly, plus now you're unvoting even though you just said you think he fake claimed?

To both of you: Voltorb is obviously translated as bomb. If it was a fake claim, he did a ridiculous amount of research to find a Pokemon that translates so effortlessly. I don't think he's lying
#270
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@Speedrace
2 killing roles wouldn't be insane if you can only use one or the other way night

That’s not how it works. The NK is a given (traditional role). There is 100% an NK. If there is a mafia poisoner then that would be hella unfair