Pokemon Mafia DP 3

Author: warren42

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Speedrace
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@ILikePie5
Also, what of the poison is one time use?

Speedrace
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@bsh1
I have a theory about the 2 killing roles... Waiting for Warren
ILikePie5
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@Speedrace
Also, what of the poison is one time use?

It’s possible but Club claimed Even Day PD I believe meaning more than one shot. So either Club is lying or you believe there are 2 killing roles lol
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@bsh1
@ILikePie5
Also, hypothetically, could a poisoner who could only fake poison exist, and would you feel a need to balance it with a poison doctor or not?
"Potentially and most likely yes" is what Warren told me to the question


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@bsh1
@ILikePie5
So not necessarily two killing roles
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@bsh1
@ILikePie5
 Warren said that if there was a Mafia poisoner, it could poison the same night as the NK

So why didn't they two nights in a row? It makes no sense
ILikePie5
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@Speedrace
I asked him “Would you balance a fake poisoner with a PD.”

His exact response was possibly. Meaning he’s not saying. So we don’t know. But common sense tells us that he wouldn’t.


ILikePie5
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@Speedrace
Warren said that if there was a Mafia poisoner, it could poison the same night as the NK

So why didn't they two nights in a row? It makes no sense

Cause there is no mafia poisoner. There’s probably a fake poisoner who wants to wreak havoc.
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@ILikePie5
His exact response was possibly. Meaning he’s not saying.
You're lying. I quoted exactly what he told me, which was "Potentially and most likely yes"

Is pie confirmed Mafia??

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@ILikePie5
So why didn't the fake poisoner poison both nights, and why didn't the mafia NK both nights??????
warren42
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Official Vote Count

Mharman: 3/6 (wylted, pie, speed)
Pie: 1/6 (Club)


If you believe I have made a mistake please let me know. There are approximately 4 hours remaining.


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@Speedrace
You're lying. I quoted exactly what he told me, which was "Potentially and most likely yes"

You’re welcome to ask him what I asked him. Phrase is exactly how I asked him. Why would I lie?
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@Speedrace
So why didn't the fake poisoner poison both nights, and why didn't the mafia NK both nights??????

They likely didn’t NK NP1 because they targeted Disc who was 1x BP and therefore not killable. Or they just didn’t NK which would be stupid given it was NP1 and they got a free NK with a VTNL.

As for the fake poisoner, it was probably designed to wreak havoc. Not poisoning somebody led to the multitude of theories we have right now. Plus they realized that whoever they Poison would be Town Confirmed aka Wylted who is on my Town list.

But all of this is besides the point. You cannot start a wagon on me without screwing over time; we have less than 4 hours I believe.
Speedrace
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@bsh1
 Could you confirm that the answer I put here was the answer to that question? Post #274
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@bsh1
@warren42
 See above Warren, ignore that bsh
Mharman
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@bsh1
@Speedrace
With a bomb in the game, it means that there is no way there are two poisoners. It has to be a poisoner who can fake poison.
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@warren42
VTL Wylted

Speedrace
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@Mharman
 Oh really, Sherlock

That's obvious because two people haven't poisoned dude

oromagi
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OK, I'm having another crazy day so I'm just tossing in without much analysis.  I have to admit I am totally bewildered by all the poisoner talk.  I'm not convinced we can draw any certain conclusions and trying to do so seems to have occluded much else.

I am Absol. I am a PSYCHIC.  I can confirm Club as town if Club targets me tonight.  I have to run to the store now but I'll try to check back in a few hrs.  In the meantime,

VTL Mharman




Speedrace
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@oromagi
 Awesome, he can target you during the day, so next day cycle
Speedrace
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@bsh1
Mharman's power doesn't make much sense either, bomb, psychic, and bulletproof are all passive and can't be inherited, also I'm starting to think that there's no cop, so UB would be useless
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Catching up now. Will vote ASAP.
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@Speedrace
I'm doing Mharman because I do not think that Mafia could possibly be as ignorant as Pie is being right now
Rofl...
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@Mharman
A bomb doesn't balance well here. I think it's a fake claim.
Agreed. I think there is only one possible scenario in which it balances (and even then it's questionable), and that scenario is unlikely.

I get what "active" means now. I misinterpreted the meaning of "active".
You're saying that you only inherit roles which are active, meaning your obviously not BP. But earlier you said that you inherit power roles. There's still this contradiction.

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@Speedrace
So why didn't they two nights in a row? It makes no sense
There are three possible explanations: (1) no mafia poisoner kill exists, (2) Disc's BP prevented an NK, or (3) the odd/even cycle. The first is the most plausible, and the latter two strike me as equally likely.
bsh1
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@Speedrace
You're lying. I quoted exactly what he told me, which was "Potentially and most likely yes"
How different are possibly and potentially? I think the "and most likely yes" is significant, but it seems additive rather than essential, and thus the kind of information warren might have omitted for the sake of brevity. I know as a mod I don't always C/P responses to like questions, just because I am in a rush or I don't want to be hassled. 

 Could you confirm that the answer I put here was the answer to that question? Post #274
I'll ask warren myself in my own PM, but IDK if he'll get back to me in time.
Speedrace
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@bsh1
 Welp he probably didn't bother to put the same answer

bsh1
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Here's the issue I am having: I don't buy either Pie or Mhar's claim. In the former case, it doesn't seem plausible given the balance analysis I did. In the latter case, he seems to be contradicting himself. Pie's tunnel on Club--despite admitting he townread Club--is hella scummy. But so is Mhar's tripping all over himself throughout both DPs. At least with Mhar, I can see plausible scummates (e.g. water). I am not seeing that with Pie, who seems to have been pretty much a lone wolf this entire game. This is really kind of a toss up and I'm pressed for time, but I think Mhar's the best lynch target given what we have to go on.

VTL Mhar

bsh1
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@oromagi
Unvote.

What the hell is a psychic and why did you just pop on long enough to vote, at the tail end of the DP?
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@Speedrace
That's possible...(pun!)