Debate Mafia DP2

Author: AustinL0926
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#31
whiteflame
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@Earth
@Lunatic
His vote will simply count as one instead of three if he is mafia.
True, but we won’t verify it outside of Earth saying what happened unless he uses his role to reveal the votes, right?

Putting this to you as well, Earth. I’d like to have some verification that you were targeted and whether your role would show the extra votes coming from you. It’s still a problem regardless because you’ll be the one to get the result - it would have made more sense for Luna to target someone else so that you could verify their extra votes or lack thereof rather than seeing your own, but here we are.
#32
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@whiteflame
it would have made more sense for Luna to target someone else so that you could verify their extra votes or lack thereof rather than seeing your own, but here we are.
I wanted to use it to confirm my role, that’s why I asked Vader who the most town read person was last day phase and he said earth. Also it is good to have solid confirmation that he is town if we’re gonna treat him as town confirmed. We can always nominate him tonight as well if he proves he’s town.
#33
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Going to bed for now 
#34
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I wanted to use it to confirm my role, that’s why I asked Vader who the most town read person was last day phase and he said earth.  
He’s a fair enough choice for looking very townie based on his role, I just don’t love that we don’t have another point of role confirmation.

Also it is good to have solid confirmation that he is town if we’re gonna treat him as town confirmed. We can always nominate him tonight as well if he proves he’s town.
To my knowledge, we’re not nominating anymore. That was a DP1 only thing.
#35
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@Lunatic
Saw you went to bed, but realized I didn’t tag you in the above.

To be clear, I’m not sussing the choice or the usage of your role, just wish we got more out of it.
#36
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Oh, I forgot to mention this, but I waived my action last night.
#37
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I think everyone needs to publically state how they're going to vote on each matchup before the deadline. As for me, I feel like this one is a tossup, but I will vote for Earth over Savant (even though I feel like Savant is town, Earth is a more solid read) and Owen over Whiteflame. Obviously, I will vote for Bullish in our matchup. 
#38
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@Casey_Risk
Oh, I forgot to mention this, but I waived my action last night.
I could not use my role due to the tie, though given the strategies we’re aiming for (using it with Savant’s or Earth’s role), I probably would have waived it anyway.

I think everyone needs to publically state how they're going to vote on each matchup before the deadline.
I agree.

I plan to vote WyIted this DP so long as Earth confirms Luna’s role. I don’t like either choice, but I’ll take role confirmation.

Earth over Savant. I think they’re also both town, but Savant’s role has utility that we can use with mine when he’s eliminated while Earth has utility while alive.

Owen over me. I’ve already stated last DP and this one why I’m scumreading him, but if he’s actually the Tree Stump as he claims, we don’t lose anything since he’ll functionally be alive next DP anyway.

As for your match with Bullish, I’m torn on mechanics since both of your roles could align either way, particularly in this game. Both are technically confirmable, though not easily in this game. Behaviorally, I’d say I’m slightly leaning towards you, though the Vote Thief claim leans a little more sus than the degrading Popular, so this is going to take some discussion.
#39
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1. - Savant
2. WF
3. Wylted
4. - Bullish

I am not sure if you vote to eliminate or stay but if it's to stay this is the people I would keep since people asked 

I haven't seen or noticed much from earth 

Owen seems better than chance to be scum.

I know I am town though honestly I would prefer to see myself go since then I can just vote without giving justifications or much effort

Also I would keep bullish because Casey's pie vote seemed opportunistic but I reserve the right to change that last matchup because I also like what Casey says about me
#40
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Yes I said Casey's pie vote was opportunistic despite being the main driver of Pies lynch. He did self vote and the godfather theory is legit and technically he could have tied the vote to save Owen and to block whiteflame from using his ability. 

Also to the question Vader tagged me in.  I went to sleep and forgot everything I posted yesterday so don't know what it's in response to
#41
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Technically since scum can create a bunch of mislynches easy than perhaps we should vote on our picks even if it means some of us have to make votes we perceive to be bad so we can vote in unison
#42
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@whiteflame
Behaviorally, I’d say I’m slightly leaning towards you, though the Vote Thief claim leans a little more sus than the degrading Popular, so this is going to take some discussion.
That's fair, however I would like to point out again that in Austin's UPick Mafia, the Vote Thief was town while I was a Popular scum player, so it's absolutely possible that the same thing happened in this game. 
#43
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@Casey_Risk
That's fair, however I would like to point out again that in Austin's UPick Mafia, the Vote Thief was town while I was a Popular scum player, so it's absolutely possible that the same thing happened in this game. 
Yep, I've been considering that. Austin might have the same setup here. Both roles make sense for this game as well, and I could see him just reusing them in their same positions. Thankfully, I have some time to puzzle over that one.

#44
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@WyIted
Technically since scum can create a bunch of mislynches easy than perhaps we should vote on our picks even if it means some of us have to make votes we perceive to be bad so we can vote in unison
I do think we're going to need to align our votes and decide by majority for that reason. If Earth has those extra votes, he'll be all the more important as a result.

#45
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@Casey_Risk
I am voting Earth over Savant and whiteflame over Owen. This is locked and I have explained my reasonings for both
#46
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I am gearing toward protecting Bullish over Casey at the moment

Lost on Wylted Luna
#47
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@whiteflame
I'm not sure what you want me to do given that the match has to be completed before I can do anything.
#48
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@Earth
I'm not sure what you want me to do given that the match has to be completed before I can do anything.
The idea would be to validate the number of votes you cast, though I realized that only you would see the result, so it's not particularly useful in that respect.

#49
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@whiteflame
@Bullish
@WyIted
@Casey_Risk
I'm fine being lynched. One thing I don't understand is why Pie voted himself to tie the vote. Letting scum break the tie is like the worst possible outcome.

The fact that scum let Owen live increases the odds Owen is scum over random chance. See Monty Hall problem if you want to understand why. Scum will never choose to kill one of their own, hence a player who was passed over by scum is less likely to be town.
#50
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Let's say there are 2 scum. The odds a random player is scum is 20%. The odds that two random players are town+scum (meaning scum is left alive) is 35%. So all else being equal, Owen has a 35% chance of being scum while WF only has a 20% chance of being scum.
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#51
AustinL0926
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About 7 hours remain for the match deadline. If a player doesn't submit a vote by PM, then it doesn't get counted.

Reminder: The first match is Wylted vs Lunatic.
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#52
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@Vader
@Savant
@WyIted
@Casey_Risk
@Owen_T
Tag. Am tagging all players regardless of their vote, but quite a few players have not voted yet.
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#53
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@Earth
@Lunatic
@whiteflame
@Bullish
@ILikePie5
Tag
#54
WyIted
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Just out of curiousity 

<script> window.alert("hello everyone"); </script>
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#55
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Also: Please vote for the player who you want ELIMINATED. 
#56
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I'm voting to lynch WyIted. If anyone is voting differently, say so. Town needs to vote as a block.
#57
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I think Wylted v Luna is likely town v town. I think I might prefer that Wylted stay alive because of his role, but he is willing to die and it seems like the balance is in favor of him being voted out today, so I will vote for him to vote along with the rest of the town.
#58
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I actually wasn't sure which way the rest of town was voting so I voted for Luna. Who by the way also is cool with being the lynch
#59
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I didn't think the lynch was heading towards me TBH there was theories that pie was scum and also that it was scum vs scum between him and Owen so I don't know that it makes sense for me to drive that lynch. 

If Casey misunderstood where the majority was leaning that is cool, I may also be misunderstanding but my thoughts were that the majority was on my side here
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#60
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About 3 hours remain to submit votes.