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@Lunatic
I'll just pop in and say this is bullshit and you know it. If Banana flips town, are you going to say she was purposely acting scummy?
Hell Diary DP 1
Posts
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Total:
454
I asked Wylted and he said I can joint win, so there's that. But Wylted is a borderline bastard mod so idc.
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@Earth
I'll just pop in and say this is bullshit and you know it. If Banana flips town, are you going to say she was purposely acting scummy?
I didn't know it, all she said was she didn't read her role PM. She clarified that she knows her justification so I unvoted, that was all I was asking her. You lot turned it into some major scum tell where it wasn't.
Inclined to buy Earth’s claim. Feeling like chasing scum. We until 6:30pm tomorrow.
Well, apparently a good deal happened when I stepped away for a couple of hours to teach my debate class. I figured curve balls were a given in this game and particularly with 14 players, having a TP makes sense, but wtf even is an Evil Cookie Giver? And he has to give out 5 cookies to win? Do people even have to take the cookie (he said there's a choice) for him to achieve his wincon? And doesn't that mean he'd have to somehow get to DP6 to succeed?
Even assuming he can joint win, this is such a strange role he's spelled out.
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@Earth
Meant to tag you on the above. Can you fill in some of these gaps?
It definitely sounds in league with "crab god"
Honestly, I think it's unlikely third party wouldn't be allowed to joint win. Otherwise it makes much of the game feel wasted. And hindsight bias means Earth would be more inclined to see his claim as believable if he knows it was true (interesting article on that here, see page 4). So he probably can win with town. But there's always that chance he can't.
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@Savant
I can see good reason to lynch him, mainly based on just how he described it and what elements he left out, which may speak to there being more to his role than he's letting on. I'm in no rush to see this lynch through given the extra day, though, so I'm going to seek answers for now.
By the by, I did go back through a lot of the DP. I don't have many thoughts to add to my last reads post from yesterday, but I do have a few points:
The detail in Barney's reads is welcome, glad to see he stepped in to give his thoughts. Can't say it shifts him out of null for me, but at least I have a good idea of where he's coming from now.
Didn't say anything on Owen's role, but while I still behaviorally townread him, the claim itself is null. The role makes some sense given the character, but we don't know how long it will take to validate the change to a PR and I could easily see a scum team throwing this kind of claim together.
As for Pie and Mharman, reading back through their extended argument almost brought back that headache and didn't resolve much. This still feels very town vs. town and their frustration throughout makes me want to turn these into a townlean for each. They're both very slight townleans as a result, though I'm very wary of townreading either of them early since I have a hard time picking out their tells, specifically. In particular, I've seen Pie get pretty frustrated like this as both town and scum, so I'm going to hold off on a stronger read.
Not much else has changed, at least among the less active players. Still not a lot from JoeBob to read. Austin looks like he's been trying to catch up. Banana's been sporadic, but she's one of my stronger townreads anyway. Savant's upped his participation but hasn't really shifted for me given his (admittedly warranted) recent focus on Earth, even if I do largely agree with his reads. Luna's in a similar boat. I don't like that the whole argument over Banana got drawn out as long as it did, but that seemed more a function of Pie and Mharman's argument than Luna's and he relented the moment she hopped on and said her piece.
Anyone else hasn't shifted from my last read. Still townreading Casey and Vader. Nothing to add on the Almighty Crustacean.
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@whiteflame
They need to accept it. So yeah, its pretty hard for me to win, so joint winning seems to be the play.
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@Mharman
I don't trust is Barney's reads. If he's thinking of 3p why not Greyparrot? I don't fully trust GP's claim here bc a Crab God that whose character is carcinization (the process of turning species into crabs) sounds like a recruiting role (cultist) if it's 3P. Could a different townie that I wont talk about but I don't get why Barney is thinking Owen of all people is some third party. Even based on Owen's role, why not apply the logic to Vader?
As I stated of GP "Seemed to vote for Banana out of nowhere, so leaning scum for acting opportunistically."
And I was crystal clear on my reason for VTLing Owen. That I didn't have outsider knowledge that non-religious characters were common (GP being a crab GOD seems religious to me), meant Owen was a significant outlier. Also I did not accuse him of being third party. That I threw out a guess about their involvement in the same long post but on a different paragraph, doesn't mean the two things on connected.
I don't mind an Earth lynch today if we can't come to a meaningful alternative
Updating for the soft claims my VTL on Owen stirred, in addition to other new info.
Player Character Role/Notes
Vader Non religious Confirmable w/ 3 votes (savant, Pie, Owen… Lunatic) <<< Could be fake, but really not worth wasting time on until later rounds. I also like them catching behavioral oddities between Casey, Pie, and Mharman (#186), probably nothing, but a good sign that they're looking for behavior which doesn't quite grok.
Banana Hamas vs. Israel 14 message long role <<< This doesn't guarantee town, but pushing against it is a red flag to me. Mine was only two, but the second one was a journal entry, I suspect it's much the same for everyone else. A journal entry from Wylted could indeed be crazy long.
Whiteflame ??? ??? <<< High quality reads, no seeming artificial pushes. Cast doubt on the Banana push with the likelihood of scum roles being posted on discord thus not 14 separate messages (I know there's still a character limit, but if memory serves much less of one).
Earth Can't live without doing evil... Evil Cookie Giver third party <<< Third party, so default lynch target unless we find another. That said, I care more about fun than victory, so I'm fine with letting his evil cookies play out (not that it'll happen).
Savant Non religious ??? <<< In play, no significant thoughts.
Casey Religious Diary mostly useless. Potentially chaotic role <<< One note I will say, is their interaction with Pie doesn't feel at all staged (in summary #217), so if either flips scum, I assume the other is safe.
Mharman Non religious ??? <<< In play, no significant thoughts.
Joebob ??? ??? <<< AFK?
Austin ??? Confirmable <<< I know I've made jokes with some of you about "confirmable" roles. People either don't know what that means, and/or they just say they're confirmable DP1 to decrease the odds of being lynched.
Barney Religious Camera Toilet <<< is self, so my opinions are biased (but to play to my meta, he's obviously scum!). I did however share good information that what we voted for probably has nothing to do with what role we got (#104).
Owen Transgenders Vanilla w/ powerups <<< Fast to town read white flame. Probably nothing, but it's come up. Also regarding #218, yes, that's how OMGUS works 😁
Lunatic <<< Voted Vader after confirm condition reached, so slight distrust, but also an easy legit mistake. Also sewed distrust of Banana's PM (#48, #88).
Greyparrot carcinization Crab God bomb? <<< If memory serves, he always shares his role first thing, so hard to tell anything by it. As for the bomb joke, I don't leap to conclusions about statements like that as being serious or even misdirection instead of simple dismissal. ... Seemed to vote for Banana out of nowhere, so leaning scum for acting opportunistically.
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@ILikePie5
But if GP was a TP, he would say he was.
This is true. I am the most honest mafia player ever.
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@Barney
Eh. Noted on GP I guess
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@Savant
Most high posters are experienced players who wouldn't lurk. Do you think scum Luna or scum WF would honestly take the strategy of just not posting? They know better than that, so I don't think activity is too indicative of alignment.
that's what I do as scum and I'd call myself fairly experienced. I'm not saying that all the lowposters are scum, I'm saying that highposting is likely to be town. Continuously posting detailed thoughts with strong opinions becomes increasingly difficult to fake over time, and if it's not done for a clear agenda, it's more towny than not.
That being said, it's certainly not a be-all-end-all for my reads, it's just a tool I'm using to narrow the players I'm focusing more on - again, I'm quite behind and my goal today is just to end with an informed vote.
Vader's thoughts align pretty closely to mine so far, probs one of my top townreads just off behavior. if he has a towny confirmable role that'd be nice as well.
don't have a strong opinion on Earth, his town and scum ranges have pretty decent overlap and he hasn't contributed a lot this game. basically, not going to shield there, but also not going to vote there either.
Like 11 hours lefr.bro
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@AustinL0926
Right now Earth lynch is better than no lynch imo. He could betray town easily at the end, or he could be scum and lying.
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@WyIted
Could we get a vote count please?
I don't love the Earth lynch, mainly because it's low-hanging fruit, but I don't see what good keeping him around can do and he could be hiding aspects of his role. He hasn't indicated that the cookies he gives out are useful in any way, so no one has incentive to take them. The way Earth has described it, the role seems like it's built to fail, since keeping his role would have made people uncertain whether to take the cookie in the first place, and revealing it just puts him in the crosshairs as the claimed TP. All he can do is confirm himself, and with his TP affiliation already out in the open as well as his role, that doesn't add any value.
At the very least, I don't see what we have to lose by lynching him and we can take a wildcard off the board. So that's where I'm going.
VTL Earth
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@Barney
Vote Count
(1/8) Lunatic- Owen
(1/8) Pie- Mharman
(5/8)Earth- Pie, GP, Casey, Lunatic, Savant
Vote Count
(1/8) Lunatic- Owen
(1/8) Pie- Mharman
(6/8)Earth- Pie, GP, Casey, Lunatic, Savant, whiteflame
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@Barney
@WyIted
Could we get a vote count please?
I see 6 votes including mine, but I would like that confirmed as well.
Beat me to it.
About 7 Hours remain
I'm going to flame a Retro Hoc fallacy for the above!
Look at it, Wylted posts a vote count with no whiteflame vote, then another with whiteflame voting, and whiteflame THEN adds himself. One or both of them is an evil time traveling wizard! (and yes, I see this crap enough that I made a page on it)
...
Anyways, in the interest of not dragging things out when the outcome is a forgone conclusion,
VTL Earth (not specifically the player, more of the planet; but I suppose when Wylted destroys the earth it'll destroy him too)
*blame