Gunplay Mafia DP2

Author: Mharman
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Gunplay Mafia

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#91
AustinL0926
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I'm aware that I'm likely going to be lynched, but I am going to point out that if you let me live, I get one more jailkeep off. Assuming I stay off the wagon today, my action is guaranteed to succeed, which means if there's a kill tonight, then the person I jailkept is mechanically clear.

After that you can lynch me and watch me flip town, idc.

I've been kind of lazy this game but it's annoying to clear one person with my role and still be mislynched when I can clear another one tonight at no downside whatsoever.
#92
AustinL0926
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I also don't claim this as scum, I'm not that bad at fakeclaiming ffs.
#93
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@Lunatic
I don't think your analysis was wrong per say, but I just don't think he's town confirmed as you say. I still find how he leaned town with Pie in the last game but thought I was townlocked this game in his original posts when Pie's SOP was 10x more likely to be confirmed fmpov. Still I think his hard town read of Grey is very weird because from my experience, Austin sort of slightly reads his partner and doesn't have hardstuck reads. I also will say JK is pretty weird in this game and considering it was used in the last game.
#94
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@Lunatic
@Vader
@whiteflame
@AustinL0926
@WyIted
Assuming I stay off the wagon today, my action is guaranteed to succeed, which means if there's a kill tonight, then the person I jailkept is mechanically clear
I guess if Austin and I both stay off the wagon, and I watch him, then we'll confirm one more player at worst. The downside though is we don't really have another good lynch target today. If we're going to lynch Austin anyway, and on the off chance he's innocent, lynching him now gives us more time to gather info on other players to lynch.
#95
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Like let's say Austin is innocent. If we waste a lynch today and kill Austin tomorrow, then we have one more shot to get scum. By which point, scum will have had two chances to kill the most obv town players.
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#96
Mharman
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Austin (2/4) - Wylted, Savant
#97
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@Savant
The logic here is simple.

If I'm scum, then there's no difference between lynching me today and lynching me tomorrow. There's only one scum left, game's going to end.

If I'm town, then I can mechanically clear someone tonight as long as my role is guaranteed to suceed.

As long as you scumread me, there's zero downside in letting me get another jailkeep off. If you think this is some WIFOM strat to live another day, then I'm saying right here, right now, that you can quote this post and I will not fight against my lynch tomorrow. At all.

That's really all I have to say.

As far as I'm concerned, you're clear, Casey and Luna are behaviorally clear, and in all likelihood, Vader is probs town. Town can afford my mislynch, but it can't afford to mislynch one of the few roles capable of mechanically confirming people as town before its gotten its full utility.
#98
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@AustinL0926
If I'm town, then I can mechanically clear someone tonight
If you're town, random lynching someone else today means we lose an informed lynch. Plus, even if you mechanically clear someone, scum could just kill them. They know who watcher is and the doctor is dead.
#99
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@Savant
I'm not sure why we'd random lynch someone else today. Why not... lynch a scummy person as usual?

Right now, we have seven people and 1 clear.

Tomorrow with my plan, we would have 5 people and 1 clear.

Tomorrow if you lynch me, you'd have 5 people and 0 clears.

Shrimple as that.
#100
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Anyway, will be around later to solve - I do plan on leaving a good legacy, regardless of whether I get mislynched today or not.
#101
Vader
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@Savant
We don't use much if we mislynch today since we hit scum already, it's a 6v1 rn hypothetically speaking and if scum get a NK it's a 4v1. Still have to assess whether Austin's plan would work but it's not bad if we don't have a definitive target if Austin proves himself
#102
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A doctor and a JK is off. It's more likely than not I think that Austin RB'd Savant and is trying to play it off as a JK. 

I am willing to lynch Austin today
#103
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@WyIted
Oh.

Meh I can't really go into the mind of Luna and I haven't seen enough of Savant's reads to see why he reads him as such so can't really say, so I'm just going from my perspective
#104
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@Vader
Why do I claim the action on Savant then.

Y'all are thinking through this from the perspective of "what does an honest scum player do."

Believe it or not I am not an honest scum player and I would've just claimed some other role instead of simultaneously clearing Savant while making myself look bad. I literally acknowledged in my claim that it was a semi-CC with Pie.

So yes if you think I claim a similar role as Pie knowing he already flipped, while clearing someone who could be mislynched down the line, while offering to clear another player tonight, while cutting off any path to endgame by literally saying it's the best play to lynch me tomorrow after I out my result:

Then lynch me today and hold the people on my wagon accountable tomorrow.



#105
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@AustinL0926
I also don't claim this as scum, I'm not that bad at fakeclaiming ffs.
I kind of also wanna buy this ngl lol
#106
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@AustinL0926
I would've just claimed some other role
What would you have claimed? You were under fire already.
#107
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@Vader
I also will say JK is pretty weird in this game and considering it was used in the last game.
I don't put a lot of stock in this, considering my role was also in the last two games. 
#108
Vader
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@AustinL0926
This is extremely WIFOM but let me point this out

Why do I claim the action on Savant then.
I mean the action failed can implicate a few things. It indicates RB, JK, etc. It gets Savant to out if they have a role so you can get info
Y'all are thinking through this from the perspective of "what does an honest scum player do."

Believe it or not I am not an honest scum player and I would've just claimed some other role instead of simultaneously clearing Savant while making myself look bad. I literally acknowledged in my claim that it was a semi-CC with Pie
Again that is a huge WIFOM. You are already at a disadvantage because it's a 6v1 and are trying to at least get a mislynch off. Likely going to keep Luna alive and others in his POE since he town reads you. Likely lynched at some poit and buys you time to make a case. I did the same thing in Choose Your Role
#109
Vader
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@Lunatic
I don't really either but just important to note. Not to mention a JK is just a solidified town RB
#110
AustinL0926
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Anyway, just some more detailed thoughts:

I think Casey should always be clear. They started momentum on GP, softed a role that makes it less likely (cutting off possible fakeclaims), and didn't angle around the wagon that felt like they were trying to take credit.

Luna should also be clear - the angle of "it's not such a loss if GP is town anyway" is strongly uninformed of GP's alignment and is pretty much never a scum/scum read - a scum player would just go all in on scumreading GP in order to maximize the credit from the bus.

That aside, his progression on me today feels very real - there's no reason for him to go that hard on defending me today - while he might be buddying me, it's just a bad play when a lot of other people are criticizing his read - it's a net loss. His frustration with how his reads aren't being listened to, as well as his hesitance in regard to claim, is 100% genuine. If there's a read I want listened to after I die, it's this one.

Vader is a weaker read - it's partially for the claim, because I think that it's very risky to claim it so early without a guaranteed Tracker/Watcher. However, I just realized that if scum has a Ninja, it might actually be a safe claim.

So... this could be a misclear. He's felt pretty behaviorally towny otherwise, but I do note that he's one of only two people alive (along with WF) who weren't on GP, and WF was offering to hammer.

I'll revisit Vader later.

Going to WF - the towniest thing I think is him not hammering when he would have gotten a ton of credit for it, gotten a factional perk, and denied town a factional bonus. It's a small thing, but the impact is huge.

Outside of that, he's generally felt more engaged and interested in a way I associate with his town game.

Savant is mechanically clear. It's impossible for him to simultaneously know he was jailkept (because his action failed) while also having his kill go through.

Wylted has very little going for him other than voting GP DP1, and I don't like how casually he's pushing for my mislynch today.

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So:

Savant clear
Casey/Luna behaviorally clear
WF likely town, but for a small thing that could technically be fakable
Vader looks good for claim, but could be a misclear
Wylted is my main suspect

#111
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@Savant
What would you have claimed? You were under fire already.
Literally anything except that lmao. I struggle with some things as scum but fakeclaiming is not one of them. Just like, off the top of my head:

Matchmaking system: redirector bc pairs players with each other
Map objectives: bookie bc you get rewards if you successfully achieve a map objective
Shop system: inventor (this would be kinda tricky to fakeclaim but it's doable)
Reload system: motivator, modified version where you get extra shots as an x-shot role (this is probably the best one I just thought of)
Melee combat: delayed vigilante bc you need to wait and get close for a kill

See that's like five decent-looking fakeclaims in 10 minutes.

So if you still think I'm scum who's apparently atrocious enough to claim a roleblocking role as roleblocker while also pseudo-CCing the flipped town doc, then go for it lol.
#112
AustinL0926
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Also consider if I was scum, I would have had 24 hours to craft a fakeclaim, not just 10 minutes like I just challenged myself to do.

So like.

This is WIFOM but it's also the "consider I wouldn't do this totally garbage play" form of WIFOM so you do need to question why I'd go for this play when I've shown I'm capable of like. not doing it.
#113
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@AustinL0926
So yes if you think I claim a similar role as Pie knowing he already flipped, while clearing someone who could be mislynched down the line, while offering to clear another player tonight, while cutting off any path to endgame by literally saying it's the best play to lynch me tomorrow after I out my result:
Your claim claim would only be completely safe if it's pretty much a CC of Pies, and you would have to claim today to have any chance of avoiding a lynch

You only cleared savant after literally everyone decided that he had to be town based on the role claim.

Post poning your lynch does nothing since it's either you or lunatic and if it's not you we lynch lunatic and it's game over
#114
WyIted
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If you were town you literally wouldn't give a shit about being lynched because it just brings victory one step closer.
#115
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@WyIted
Your claim claim would only be completely safe if it's pretty much a CC of Pies, and you would have to claim today to have any chance of avoiding a lynch
And if I was scum, I take the risk of a claim bc it's obvious no one's going to like this one. I'm town claiming my real role here and that should be blatantly obvious.
You only cleared savant after literally everyone decided that he had to be town based on the role claim.
That's not guaranteed at all - and that aside, doesn't have to do with the point of a. why I claim this in the first place and b. why I clear another person tonight.

Post poning your lynch does nothing since it's either you or lunatic and if it's not you we lynch lunatic and it's game over
And if it's not lunatic?? I can't believe this is a real thought coming from you.
#116
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If you were town you literally wouldn't give a shit about being lynched because it just brings victory one step closer. - WYLTED
So your plan is to mislynch me and Luna back-to-back and then try to win F3.

I can't believe this perspective ever genuinely comes from a townie, there's zero care about making sure you're not misclearing someone, zero care about letting me get off a mechanical check, no consideration at all of anything I've been saying because you're just trying to push through a mislynch and then kill Luna afterwards for TMIing me or something.

VTL Wylted
#117
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@AustinL0926
And if it's not lunatic?? I can't believe this is a real thought coming from you.
Then who would it be?

Vader is basically cleared for the immediate claim. Casey is cleared from her early pressure and light CC.

Savant is cleared because we were expecting a watcher anyway and he claimed early.Plus you messed up and cleared him.

Whiteflame is putting in more effort than he ever does as scum. And lunatic I just feel like is town for some reason but not strongly enough for me not to lynch him if you flip town.

Literally no body else could be scum besides you
#118
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@AustinL0926
Let's play out this hypothetical where you're scum: Redirector could get you caught by the tracker. You wouldn't be able to confirm the rest, putting you under further suspicion. With jail keeper, you can at least "role confirm" and hope people go for more "unconfirmed" targets, and you can play the WIFOM game. So while JK runs the risk of being scummy, it's also the only claim that has a chance of getting you town read due to how it somewhat role confirms you and your apparent transparency up front. And you need to take that risk in hopes of getting out of PoE, because you're part of a narrow PoE and the only scum left.

Also if the argument for your innocence is that you wouldn't do anything obvious as scum, then this role claim does nothing to improve your odds of being town. You could have already made the argument that "as scum, I'd never be obvious about defending Greyparrot." But you did defend him, which would be an obvious move for scum. Before you claimed, it was clear that if you were scum you were willing to take big risks.
#119
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@WyIted
Vader is basically cleared for the immediate claim.
While I suspect Austin more, I don't think Vader is cleared. If he's the ninja, for example, he can expect a watcher or tracker so gravedigger is a pretty safe claim.
#120
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@AustinL0926
And WyIted has a point that you didn't clear me until I was already cleared by my claim. Maybe you're town and you didn't get online in time, but it increases the odds that you're scum being opportunistic.