Choose Your Role DP2

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Savant
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@WyIted
  1. Does a roleblock of the scum carrying out the NK, prevent the NK?
You can only ask about your own role. So if Luna answers it means you're scum, lol. I asked Luna to clarify, though, even though description seemed pretty clear.
Savant
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@whiteflame
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@Casey_Risk
The only mafia strategy I see is a deliberate waive of the NK to implicate whoever Savant would’ve RBed and then lynch Savant himself for lying. But that’s very risky
If this did happen, it would have a 100% chance of stopping the night kill, whereas my roleblock wasn't guaranteed to get scum or even the scum doing the night kill specifically. And Vader should have known I was going to roleblock him, so why would he do the night kill?

So if that's the case, which I'm now not really sure about, it makes Earth probably the biggest suspect. And Wylted's push of me would set them up nicely for a double mislynch. I don't know how reasonable this is, but an Earth/Wylted team would be interesting.

I want to get thoughts on this from people who aren't Earth, WyIted, or Vader.

Unvote for now.
Savant
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@Vader
I agree that Earth has been acting weird, and now that I'm doubting what I thought I knew, I'm tagging you on this.
Casey_Risk
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I'm awake! Give me a moment here to collect my thoughts. 
whiteflame
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@Savant
Why would scum sacrifice a night kill to "frame" a town member, when they could instead just guarantee they kill town at night? If it's to avoid getting lynched the next day, then that means I'm certainly not scum, because I'll def get lynched tomorrow if Vader flips town. Plus delaying kills of town gives town more time to do night actions and such.
I don't think scum would just sacrifice the NK for the sake of framing someone. There's an outside chance that scum is banking on some role they have that allows some benefit if they abstain from the NK, but that kind of speculation won't get us anywhere. I think it's more likely that scum tried and failed to execute the NK. The fact that they had an obvious target in GP, someone who could bring Austin back to life and effectively reset the game, and knew that there wasn't a Doctor in the game since that was on the list of choices GP didn't pick, suggests that something prevented the NK and so far yours is the only role we've seen that could have done that.

The only mafia strategy I see is a deliberate waive of the NK to implicate whoever Savant would’ve RBed and then lynch Savant himself for lying. But that’s very risky
If this did happen, it would have a 100% chance of stopping the night kill, whereas my roleblock wasn't guaranteed to get scum or even the scum doing the night kill specifically. And Vader should have known I was going to roleblock him, so why would he do the night kill?

So if that's the case, which I'm now not really sure about, it makes Earth probably the biggest suspect. And Wylted's push of me would set them up nicely for a double mislynch. I don't know how reasonable this is, but an Earth/Wylted team would be interesting.

I want to get thoughts on this from people who aren't Earth, WyIted, or Vader.

Unvote for now.
See, the problem I have with this is that it implies scum have pretty detailed knowledge of the roles that weren't claimed yet. They had to know that you had an RB, that that RB could prevent the NK, and that you'd use it on a town player. Maybe they just took a gamble on all of these, and the last one makes sense (when you have 5-2 odds of hitting town at least and you had made clear your sus of Vader), but guessing you, specifically, had the RB is less clear. I suppose if it was Vader/Earth as a scum team, they would have had a coin flip on which of us was the Role Stopper role, but even then, knowing that it was the RB instead of any other role is a stretch. 
Vader
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@Savant

Why would scum sacrifice a night kill to "frame" a town member, when they could instead just guarantee they kill town at night? If it's to avoid getting lynched the next day, then that means I'm certainly not scum, because I'll def get lynched tomorrow if Vader flips town. Plus delaying kills of town gives town more time to do night actions and such.
This is WIFOM but you were going to be top scum read DP2. You claim the RB role and waive the kill so you can get try to generate town cred on me. You knew no matter what you'd likely have 8 people alive max because of GP's role. It is the same amount of DPs that you risk. Plus the setup says mafia get another role. Scum could know something about the game that us town don't.

A lot of possibilities
Vader
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@Savant
It is way to uncharacteristic of Earth to try and reaction test town on his role to draw confusion. What was his motivation for faking a Day Vig? I really see no use besides to confuse town

Casey_Risk
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@Savant
Okay, so at this point my PoE is mostly unchanged, except that I now highly doubt that WF is scum. He's the Investigative role, and there's still the possibility of him being something like a Mafia Scout, but I don't think that's very likely at this point. That leaves Earth, Savant, and Vader, and I think it's pretty clear that Savant and Vader are not on a team together. I just can't see that being true. I'd say we more or less have this game solved.

So if that's the case, which I'm now not really sure about, it makes Earth probably the biggest suspect. And Wylted's push of me would set them up nicely for a double mislynch. I don't know how reasonable this is, but an Earth/Wylted team would be interesting.
My gut tells me Wylted is town, and I trust my gut when it comes to Wylted. That being said, according to my PoE, the only possible way that Earth could not be scum is if WF is a scum investigator. Or if one of my other townreads is wrong, but the only other one I can see being wrong is Wylted. I would like to know what he did last night. Has he said yet?

In any case, lynching Earth is practically zero risk imo, because from my perspective, the only way he can be town is if I'm looking at the game entirely the wrong way. After we nail him, we can figure out which one of you and Vader is scum, though I suspect that the mafia will probably just concede. With all this confirmation going around, if we hit scum today, the game becomes pretty much unwinnable for the mafia.

VTL Earth 
Earth
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@Vader
To be fair, Day Vig is rare, so you really can't say much either way. 
Vader
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@whiteflame
See, the problem I have with this is that it implies scum have pretty detailed knowledge of the roles that weren't claimed yet
If this was any other mod I would totally be on your side. But this also a Lunatic game. Luna has given mafia the type of roles that reveal a lot of info to the mafia team. Remember when we were a team last time. The same thing happened with Pie in the Invincible Game. Lunatic would be a mod to do such a thing and I can not fully rule out something like this to happen
Vader
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@Earth
It is rare but not impossible, especially in a game like this and the options that are left for you to claim 
WyIted
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@Savant
You can only ask about your own role. So if Luna answers it means you're scum, lol. I asked Luna to clarify, though, even though description seemed pretty clea
Well he answered so you are a liar and clearly scum. Do you really think the old cheap truck of refraining from an NK would work? Also explain why Austin was lynched last DP and not you? Why would scum when given the choice of 2 town members not choose the one who can block the NK to die?

Also why would you be offered a roleblock (which I CCed essentially)
And then another roleblock which doesn't block NKs. Nobody is accepting a roleblocker that doesn't block NKs it's silly to even offer when the other roleblock is available.

WyIted
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@whiteflame
and knew that there wasn't a Doctor in the game since that was on the list of choices GP didn't pick, suggests that something prevented the NK and so far yours is the only role we've seen that could have done that.
I told the person whose role I switched to keep their mouth shut but doctor is one of GPs options and the role change takes effect for that nights ability so for all we know I targeted GP and he blocked the NK and he is sworn to silence
whiteflame
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@Vader
If this was any other mod I would totally be on your side. But this also a Lunatic game. Luna has given mafia the type of roles that reveal a lot of info to the mafia team. Remember when we were a team last time. The same thing happened with Pie in the Invincible Game. Lunatic would be a mod to do such a thing and I can not fully rule out something like this to happen
I mean, I do remember Luna tends to be pretty forthcoming when it comes to giving information to scum, though then we're talking about giving scum some kind of investigative or passive information role, two Categories that are spoken for by townread players. It's possible whatever this would be would fall outside of the 9 Categories entirely, or that Luna just gave scum certain pieces of information separate from their roles, so I'm not ruling this out. I just can't say it's likely given what we know about the distribution of roles and their respective Categories.

Vader
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@whiteflame
I mean, I do remember Luna tends to be pretty forthcoming when it comes to giving information to scum, though then we're talking about giving scum some kind of investigative or passive information role, two Categories that are spoken for by townread players. It's possible whatever this would be would fall outside of the 9 Categories entirely, or that Luna just gave scum certain pieces of information separate from their roles, so I'm not ruling this out. I just can't say it's likely given what we know about the distribution of roles and their respective Categories.
I do agree as well. I guess I see it differently from my perspective because I am the victim of this, but he said the decision of swing is based on decisions of role choices.  I have a feeling that mafia may have been given info but screw it 
WyIted
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I literally said I was potentially making GP either a doctor or bulletproof or unlynchable and we are sitting here taking savant seriously. Hell maybe even knowing that they refrained from the NK.

And no I don't want GP commenting about what he did or did not do or did or did not receive. Or whether his role did or did not change. He is clearly town as is anyone else I may have changed and so there is no need to be in a rush to reveal information. Let's just lynch savant and we can figure that sort of thing out DP3 and who knows maybe another NK is blocked
whiteflame
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@WyIted
I told the person whose role I switched to keep their mouth shut but doctor is one of GPs options and the role change takes effect for that nights ability so for all we know I targeted GP and he blocked the NK and he is sworn to silence
So you publicly told your target to keep their mouth shut about the change? I think I recall something like that from DP1 where you said that anyone you used it on shouldn't mention it (hardly swearing someone to silence, but OK), but the change you describe here does not make sense. Austin is back in the game. Someone revived him. GP's role revives players. Even if you changed his role, that would have taken place after he'd used it, meaning he couldn't have used the Doc.

Greyparrot
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@WyIted
I'm not saying anything of course...what's your read on Casey Risk refusing to do a deep analysis on Savant? Pivoting to Earth?
WyIted
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@whiteflame
Even if you changed his role, that would have taken place after he'd used it, meaning he couldn't have used the Doc.
Correct let's lynch savant

 recall something like that from DP1 where you said that anyone you used it on shouldn't mention it (hardly swearing someone to silence, but OK),
I communicate like a Mafia member . Always subtle. When I say "please don't mention it" I usually mean "your wife and kids are probably going to end up at the bottom of a river if anything leaks".
WyIted
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@Greyparrot
Casey is so terrible as scum she usually sticks out like a sore thumb. I know that it's pretty damning that she is avoiding communicating with savant at all and appears scared to put a vote on him or weigh in on him at all.

It's an associative tell for short but I like to see flips before I start getting into associative tells
Savant
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@whiteflame
guessing you, specifically, had the RB is less clear
I claimed role blocker yesterday.
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@WyIted
Yeah, you gotta wait for the rest of the town to catch up.
Savant
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@whiteflame
However, you not remembering that makes me pretty sure you are town. WyIted and Earth as a team is looking more likely now, though idk if that is confirmation bias on my part.
whiteflame
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@WyIted
Even if you changed his role, that would have taken place after he'd used it, meaning he couldn't have used the Doc.
Correct let's lynch savant
You'll need to explain this one to me. I just pointed out that it does not make sense for GP to have protected the target of the NK, regardless of whether you used your role on him or not. 

Also, and I can't believe I'm just remembering this now: you said this last DP:

I just got clarification. They in fact do adopt their new ability the same exact night I change them. So we can actually prevent a nk tonight if I use it on GP
You confirmed it when I asked you this:

So, once again, to clarify: it takes effect on the same night before they use their role, correct?
So you already know, as we already know, that your role wasn't used on GP, who clearly used his revival on Austin. Why are you being coy about this?


WyIted
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Me and GP are town and we won't be moving our vote at all ever. So town needs to decide whether it is possible to get a lynch on anyone other than savant without scum help and then ask themselves why scum would be motivated to help their lynch
whiteflame
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@Savant
guessing you, specifically, had the RB is less clear
I claimed role blocker yesterday.
Damn, for some reason I thought you claimed this DP. That's my mistake. Yeah, then it's possible.

However, you not remembering that makes me pretty sure you are town. WyIted and Earth as a team is looking more likely now, though idk if that is confirmation bias on my part.
It's possible. I'm still considering it, and I don't understand why WyIted being coy about using his role on GP when he clearly didn't.

Savant
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@WyIted
Me and GP are town
GP is town. You're not confirmed at all.
WyIted
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So you already know, as we already know, that your role wasn't used on GP, who clearly used his revival on Austin. Why are you being coy about this?
If the new role can be used the same night they receive it, how would them previously having a daytime activated role change that?

My interpretation of what I was told is that the new role can be used the same night it is recieved
ILikePie5
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@WyIted
My explanation for no night kill is scum refrained in an attempt to fake confirm themselves.
What do you mean? They can do the NK + their 2 active actions assuming they didn’t use their active action in the DP?
WyIted
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@Savant
GP is town. You're not confirmed at all.
Bro you were caught. Why would the scum team prefer a lunch on Austin to you if you are town and can block NKs?

You were caught yesterday. You likely didn't really think Austin would come back and thought we would be at

Also I was literally a strong town read for you like 2 posts ago