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@Cerulean
Ok!
If that's true, that's awesome for town.
Fwiw I'm leaning towards it being true.
Inheritance Cycle Mafia DP4
Posts
Hot
Total:
97
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@Mharman
I haven’t liked Whiteflame’s behavior, I haven’t liked Cerulean’s behavior, and I haven’t liked Austin’s behavior all game long. And recently I haven’t been liking ADOL’s behavior so I’m kinda suspicious of everyone.
I dislike this. It feels like you're suddenly trying to open the POE into the whole game during LYLO and it doesn't feel natural.
That aside, I know you said you're burned out, and I understand, but I would have expected at least *some* analysis of what's happening right now beyond just mechanically separating the game into two groups. I'm really struggling to see the urgency or curiosity that comes from a town who knows they have to chop correctly.
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@whiteflame
@Mharman
@ADreamOfLiberty
@Cerulean
I'm just going to commit to a worldview rn.
I believe Cerulean/WF are the same alignment.
This would make ADOL/Mharman the same alignment.
Based on behavior, I am heavy inclined to believe the scum team is ADOL/Mharman - I think Cerulean and WF have been more behaviorally towny in previous DPs, and there is a clear lack of drive to truly solve from ADOL/Mharman that I'm seeing this DP - worrying from ADOL, but especially worrying from Mharman - who I would expect to have at least a singular townread or something (it's not a high standard).
Based on claims, I am leaning that the scum team is ADOL/Mharman. Oracle fits well for Cerulean and is an early claim.
Voodoo doll is... strange. I can see Pie including it, it's a bit of a stretch, but I'd had to believe Cerulean is lying as well. Viewing it charitably, I kinda think WF wouldn't go through all this trouble for a fakeclaim that the rest of the game is going to view skeptically.
Singer makes very little sense in terms of justification, and it's also somewhat CCing Oracle (although I *could* see it being in the same game, I just find it unlikely) - and furthermore, I just struggle Pie putting so many negative utility and/or difficult-to-use town roles in one game.
Bulletproof is a substantial outlier from the rest - it's also the justification I have most direct issues with, since it feels like one which doesn't fit well but one that someone who's skimmed the series might *think* fit well.
So yes. ADOL, Mharman - if you're town, then this game is headed in a bad direction - you need to do something to convince me.
Cerulean, WF - I think you're town. Fmpov, the greater difficulty is probably convincing you that I'm town. All I can say is that I don't think I can really be paired with either of the above, I've been behaviorally towny all game, and I've been displaying a drive to solve the game - I might've been wrong, but at least I committed to scumreads and pushed them - and I don't recall that from the others.
Since fypov I could technically be paired with one of the above, I'm fine with following your lead this DP if you're worried about me pulling a fast one, although we will have to resolve this in F3 eventually, since if we hit one of ADOL/Mharman today then WF is almost always dying tonight.
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@Mharman
@AustinL0926
[Mharman] They are either both town or both scum imo.
Like I said...
[Mharman] I see the point in taking risks so I’ll be taking one shortly.
Ok
[AustinL0926] Based on behavior, I am heavy inclined to believe the scum team is ADOL/Mharman
It would make sense for scum to not go after the Cerulean/Whiteflame combo right now. So if you and Mharman are scum I am the only target that remains.
[AustinL0926] Voodoo doll is... strange.
Has anyone else been informed of a secret word besides Cerulean? If so that would confirm the role, or something similar.
Well today was... fun at work. Rarely so slammed that I barely have time to check in online, but here we are.
We are now well under 24 hours out from the end of the DP, so people are going to have to make their decisions. Mharman mentioned making his in "a few hours" over 8 hours ago, so there's that. It seems that Austin and I are thinking in a similar vein, don't know how Cerulean is thinking. I'm honestly good with either ADOL or Mharman as a lynch, though right now, I prefer the former to the latter if only because I feel a little more secure on that one for reasons I've already mentioned.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
Has anyone else been informed of a secret word besides Cerulean? If so that would confirm the role, or something similar.
You've said this or something similar to it now a couple of times. This is not and has never been how my role works. The Voodoo Lady doesn't send a secret word to anyone. I picked a 15-letter word that one person (in this case, Cerulean) had to say in order for my role to activate. He didn't get sent that word, he wasn't informed he had a word to say by Pie, he was simply the only one who could say it and activate my role, at which point he was contacted by Pie with the resultant information that I am town. No one else had that opportunity because, like I've said multiple times, I was roleblocked in the first two NPs. I also said that I targeted Luna in both NPs, who is now dead and cannot respond to you.
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@whiteflame
So there is no way to confirm your role is what you said it was except Cerulean's claim.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
So there is no way to confirm your role is what you said it was except Cerulean's claim.
Figured this was obvious since it's a point that has been made by several people already. Either we're both scum and we've played a very long game to convince you and others that I'm town, or neither of us are scum and Cerulean just confirmed me as town.
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@whiteflame
I didn’t get what I wanted out of that. It was a reaction test. No one acted in a way I felt was expressly scummy.
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@Mharman
I didn’t get what I wanted out of that. It was a reaction test. No one acted in a way I felt was expressly scummy.
Strange test. Not sure what you were expecting if someone was acting scummy in response.
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@whiteflame
I was hoping scum would be fearful I was about to go for them and hard lock onto me. The reason I did this is because last game I noticed how Pie had a very raw reaction to my townslip and realized that scum sometimes shows their hand in late game DPs.
Plus it had the benefit of me having to do very little if it worked.
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@whiteflame
@Mharman
@AustinL0926
@Cerulean
Based on claims, I am leaning that the scum team is ADOL/Mharman. Oracle fits well for Cerulean and is an early claim.
Well it looks like Mharmen, you, and I all distrust each other too much to go after Cerulean/Whiteflame.
So to collapse to a plan of action I'm going to assume Cerulean/Whiteflame are town. It would be a long con indeed if they were scum.
In that case I know I'm town which means the scum team are you and Mharmen.
You're saying the scum team is myself and Mharmen.
Whiteflame has shown suspicion of Mharmen.
So here is my attack: Let's lynch Mharmen. You can't claim that the scum team is ADOL/Mharmen if I lynch Mharmen. Assuming that Mharmen is scum (and if he isn't town loses) then the last round Whiteflame and Cerulean will have to choose between you and me.
I'll also vote to lynch Austin if WF and Cerulean go that route.
So if you're town and serious about ADOL/Mharmen = scum, you have nothing to lose by going along with lynching Mharmen. I say the exact same thing to Mharmen about Austin.
Therefore this decision is not contingent on any of us, but on Whiteflame and Cerulean. I await their decision.
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@Mharman
Still feels weird, but fine.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
So here is my attack: Let's lynch Mharmen. You can't claim that the scum team is ADOL/Mharmen if I lynch Mharmen.
Assuming we do this and Austin’s on the lynch, would the same logic apply to him? Could he not possibly have been on a team with Mharman?
The reason this logic doesn’t work is because bussing exists. Your willingness to be on a lynch of someone who ends up flipping scum doesn’t make you town, it just means you may have been willing to throw your scum buddy under the bus to make yourself look less scummy. It’s a classic tactic in Mafia.
And no, I’m not following why Mharman is the priority lynch or why Austin is necessarily secondary. You pointed out that Austin is sussing both you and Mharman, but when you pointed to me, you conveniently left out that I’m sussing the two of you as well. There’s no priority from me aside from my statement that you come off as the clearer lynch.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
Well it looks like Mharmen, you, and I all distrust each other too much to go after Cerulean/Whiteflame.
Never said that. I'm undecided. I will say that this most recent post isn't looking good for you. Regardless, I'll still have to weight the two team combos in my head.
So to collapse to a plan of action I'm going to assume Cerulean/Whiteflame are town. It would be a long con indeed if they were scum.
Literally all that needs to happen is Whiteflame claiming a role and Cerulean confirming it the next DP. This is a bit of a stupid argument.
So here is my attack: Let's lynch Mharmen. You can't claim that the scum team is ADOL/Mharmen if I lynch Mharmen. Assuming that Mharmen is scum (and if he isn't town loses) then the last round Whiteflame and Cerulean will have to choose between you and me.
The lack of self awareness here is crazy. "You can't lynch me if I go after Mharman!" to justify an attack where all you need it one mislynch and it could easily be you and Austin. Honestly if I conclude you're scum at the end of this it'll be because I'd think you're trying to frame me as a teammate of yourself in MYLO where you only need one lynch to win.
So if you're town and serious about ADOL/Mharmen = scum, you have nothing to lose by going along with lynching Mharmen. I say the exact same thing to Mharmen about Austin.
Ignoring the fact that this applies to you too from their POV, lol
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@whiteflame
@Cerulean
Don't really have anything particular to say, so I'll keep it simple.
If the scum team is Cerulean and WF, then the game is pretty much lost for town because it'd be impossible to coalesce a correct lynch. Am I worried about it? Obviously, but I don't see the point of doomering about it when it's not going to help me get found as town.
At this stage in the game, scum and town behavior converge because it becomes more about lynching others within a narrow POE rather than solving into a correct POE in the first place.
I think ADOL and Mharman are classically partnered. Look at their progression on each other:
-They largely ignore each other for early game
-ADOL jumps on Wylted wagon for weak thematic reasons, Mharman defends Wylted from a place that looks like TMI
-Mharman hard townreads ADOL because "he could have claimed a protective role" (don't forget this egregious reason for a townread, btw)
-Then Mharman and ADOL don't commit to any scumreads for the duration of LYLO beyond asking about mech and saying that it could be anyone
-And now, ADOL is willing to lynch Mharman because it "proves" they're not a scum team (pretty clearly not a real thought, and one to set up my mislynch in F3) while also keeping his options to lynch me as well. Similarly, Mharman's attacks on ADOL read largely as distancing, while he *still* is "weighing" possible team combos.
It all pretty much just comes down to one thing: I'm willing to let Cerulean and WF decide who we go for today, because that's logical from my worldview and has followed from my progression for the past few days. ADOL is willing to go for Mharman (to prove he's "unpartnered") or me (to mislynch, I suppose) even though, from his point of view and his philosophy he's expressed this game, there's no reason he should be clearing Cerulean and WF when they haven't been role confirmed outside of Cerulean claiming mech on WF - so that reads as TMI. And Mharman is willing to go for anybody, apparently.
I could pick apart what they're saying right now, but I don't think that would be a productive exercise. Just tell me what I need to do to get found as town, and the rest really solves itself.
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@whiteflame
@Mharman
So to collapse to a plan of action I'm going to assume Cerulean/Whiteflame are town. It would be a long con indeed if they were scum.Literally all that needs to happen is Whiteflame claiming a role and Cerulean confirming it the next DP. This is a bit of a stupid argument.
Got a better argument?
[whiteflame] There’s no priority from me aside from my statement that you come off as the clearer lynch.
Well I'm not going to vote to lynch myself so there is no action to take on that. Just sit around and then lose.
So if you're town and serious about ADOL/Mharmen = scum, you have nothing to lose by going along with lynching Mharmen. I say the exact same thing to Mharmen about Austin.[Mharman] Ignoring the fact that this applies to you too from their POV, lol
How so?
If the scum team = ADOL/Mharmen then a townie Austin wouldn't care whether he lynches ADOL or Mharmen first.
Or to put it another way, of the three outside the presumed innocent entangled pair, only one is innocent; so that one would not need to decide which of the other two is scum, they must both be scum.
If you think it's white flame and cerulean say so.
Otherwise ADOL/Mharmen/Austin should all be willing to lynch each other.
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@AustinL0926
Nobody left has been role confirmed to my knowledge.there's no reason he should be clearing Cerulean and WF when they haven't been role confirmed outside of Cerulean claiming mech on WF
Actually nevermind, because I do have some thoughts to give.
So to collapse to a plan of action I'm going to assume Cerulean/Whiteflame are town. It would be a long con indeed if they were scum. - ADOL
This seems like TMI on their alignment - it's a simple play to clear as teammates. The reason why I'm townreading WF is dependent on Cerulean being independently towny and claiming mech on WF, as well as behavior of ADOL and Mharman.
ADOL has said, several times this game, that behavior isn't truly alignment indicative. With this in mind, there's no reason he should be believing in a me/Mharman world over Cerulean/WF.
I don't buy the excuse that "we all distrust each other too much" - because that's something he'd say if he pushed a worldview and it got rejected by others, forcing him to reconsider - not something he'd say if he never formed a worldview at all.
And that aside, I don't recall Mharman ever explicitly scumreading ADOL, so the "Mharman distrusts me" might be inside information from scum chat if they're preparing to distance or bus - this one is a bit of a stretch, but I wanted to point it out anyway.
So here is my attack: Let's lynch Mharmen. You can't claim that the scum team is ADOL/Mharmen if I lynch Mharmen. Assuming that Mharmen is scum (and if he isn't town loses) then the last round Whiteflame and Cerulean will have to choose between you and me. - ADOL
This just feels egregious - if Mharman flips scum, which I believe he does, this in no way clears ADOL. It's also evidently not a real thought - because if I vote to lynch Mharman, would that prove to ADOL that I'm town? Obviously he'd claim otherwise. It's setting up a chain mislynch with logic that I believe, based on ADOL's understanding of mech and behavior that he's shown this game, doesn't make sense.
I'll also vote to lynch Austin if WF and Cerulean go that route.So if you're town and serious about ADOL/Mharmen = scum, you have nothing to lose by going along with lynching Mharmen. I say the exact same thing to Mharmen about Austin. - ADOL
Which has nothing to do with his own alignment - again, his arguments are all based on "I'm town and y'all are scum by POE, and I can't be paired with scum because I'm voting who you're calling scum" - it's *incredibly* easy to read others off your own alignment as scum because it's often the truth - I AGREE that if ADOL is town, then I should be on the chopping block - but with no evidence that ADOL has provided for why he's town, it reads as a scum who doesn't know how to truly push me. And going back to what I said earlier, he's either setting up bussing cred or just straight-up trying to mislynch me in broad daylight here.
Never said that. I'm undecided. I will say that this most recent post isn't looking good for you. Regardless, I'll still have to weight the two team combos in my head. - MHARMAN
Keeping as many options as possible open... okay.
Literally all that needs to happen is Whiteflame claiming a role and Cerulean confirming it the next DP. This is a bit of a stupid argument. - MHARMAN
This is correct, but pointing out a scummy comment from ADOL so late into LYLO means little. That aside, the fact that he doesn't make a comment on ADOL's alignment off of that comment is something.
The lack of self awareness here is crazy. "You can't lynch me if I go after Mharman!" to justify an attack where all you need it one mislynch and it could easily be you and Austin. Honestly if I conclude you're scum at the end of this it'll be because I'd think you're trying to frame me as a teammate of yourself in MYLO where you only need one lynch to win. - MHARMAN
Distancing-style attack.
Ignoring the fact that this applies to you too from their POV, lol
Also correct, but frankly I'd just turbo-lynch Mharman if he actually agreed with ADOL's logic there.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
Got a better argument? [response to Mharman], from ADOL
So do you or do you not think Cerulean and WF could be scum?
How so?If the scum team = ADOL/Mharmen then a townie Austin wouldn't care whether he lynches ADOL or Mharmen first.Or to put it another way, of the three outside the presumed innocent entangled pair, only one is innocent; so that one would not need to decide which of the other two is scum, they must both be scum.If you think it's white flame and cerulean say so.Otherwise ADOL/Mharmen/Austin should all be willing to lynch each other.
That's correct, I'm fine with lynching either of you today. I'm waiting for Cerulean or WF to weigh in to prove that I'm not partnered with either of you by being willing to lynch whoever the people outside of POE want, showing that I genuinely believe that you and Mharman are both scum. If I preferred either of you over the other, that would be outing.
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@AustinL0926
Got a better argument? [response to Mharman], from ADOLSo do you or do you not think Cerulean and WF could be scum?
Of course they could be scum, and it's very frustrating to me that people seem to act like there is a way to clear them of the possibility.
You and Mharmen could also be scum.
I have zero reason to trust any of you, but I don't have to make that decision unless you and Mharmen try to lynch their duo and they try to lynch you and I'm the deciding vote.
In that case, at this moment, I would side with Whiteflame and Cerulean for admittedly weak reasons. If you want to put a number to it, it would be like 51% chance Mharmen is scum because I think the role/theme assignment is weirder.
You can't claim that the scum team is ADOL/Mharmen if I lynch Mharmen. (ADOL)
The worst thing is that this could still technically be a villager.
Unlikely, but could. Does a wolf ADOL ever say this if the team is exactly ADOL/Mharman? Even for a newbie, it seems very blatant and over-the-top. Potentially a double-triple-reverse psychology, I suppose.
I'm waiting for Cerulean or WF to weigh in to prove that I'm not partnered with either of you by being willing to lynch whoever the people outside of POE want, showing that I genuinely believe that you and Mharman are both scum. (Austin)
This line makes me... really uneasy. Because, Austin, I know for a fact that you're capable of bussing and being bussed since we did it in Classical Movies. I don't see why you being willing to potentially lynch either player "proves" that you aren't partnered.
I've had, frankly, a stubborn and unreasoning bad feeling about Austin since Day 2 that I can't really substantiate. I need to go and actually reread the previous days.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
Why?In that case, at this moment, I would side with Whiteflame and Cerulean for admittedly weak reasons. (ADOL)
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@Cerulean
It doesn't "prove" I'm unpartnered - I worded it badly, but I was referring to ADOL's phrasing. He's saying he's unpartnered because he's willing to lynch anybody, I'm saying I can do the same thing but with the crucial step of being willing to commit to what my townreads ask me to without knowing what they're going to ask. That's how I'm showing I'm playing to town agenda here.
If my "vibes" are off, then so be it - but IMO, I would appreciate if you *did* go and reread Classical Movies and compare my play here versus there, because its an order of magnitude different.
Don't remind me...if we hit one of ADOL/Mharman today then WF is almost always dying tonight.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
Of course they could be scum, and it's very frustrating to me that people seem to act like there is a way to clear them of the possibility.You and Mharmen could also be scum.I have zero reason to trust any of you, but I don't have to make that decision unless you and Mharmen try to lynch their duo and they try to lynch you and I'm the deciding vote.In that case, at this moment, I would side with Whiteflame and Cerulean for admittedly weak reasons. If you want to put a number to it, it would be like 51% chance Mharmen is scum because I think the role/theme assignment is weirder.
This really doesn't make sense - are you saying that you think there's a 49% chance that WF and Cerulean are scum? That's alarmingly high considering you're willing to blindly lynch me, or as you claim, Mharman.
Someone has been playing well. Or I'm just bad at the game. Rereading Day 1, I'm struggling to imagine an Austin/Mharman team just from the way they interact a couple of times, but I'm not sure if I'm setting the bar high enough there.
Austin is a conditional scumlean if we are wrong on Creulean. I don’t think he’s explaining his thoughts well enough on his a couple of his townreads. Bit of a vibe thing as well. Null otherwise.
My other top scumread is Whiteflame. The vibes on him are fine, but the defense of Cwruean is weird to me. I firmly disagree with a few of his points.
Both Mharman, late Day 1. Seems like it would be an odd decision to put yourself in a situation where if I got lynched (and it was very much looking like I would get lynched at that point), your top scumread would be your partner. Again, not impossible, but it would be risky.
It wasn't like you could predict WyIted deciding to throw things into a spin and let me live- if you're scum there, you're almost definitely setting up on the assumption that I'm going to get lynched and flip Town.